England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 6 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Birmingham City v Chelsea (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Tottenham Hotspur v Stevenage (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[sakica]

Birmingham Chelsea Important match for Chelsea soon after the AVB sacking. Caretaker Di Matteo says that his first job will be to instill passion into the Chelsea players who have been lethargic of late. It has been well publicized that his Monday's training team talk has been that everyone's heads are on the line from now till the end of the season when a massive clear-out is expected. He has to start saving Chelsea's season now, today at Birmingham. I believe that there is absolutely no value offered on the offered odds for Chelsea to win at 1.80, but I think that bookies have got the card market wrong. Whatever Chelsea team will play out there will be edgy, fired up and wanting to show that passion Di Matteo is asking for. Things, though won't be that easy at Birmingham and I believe we will see cards, especially if things don't go Chelsea's way early. Ladbrokes are going as as far as 4.0 (3/1) on over 45 booking points which I think has tremendous value and will take with medium stakes. I will also put a small stake on over 55 booking points at 6.0 with William Hill. A couple of stats and trivia to support my bet: On the current Premier League Fair play table Chelsea are rock bottom with 64 points in total (56 yellow 4 red cards) even though most were from the early part of the season ( when there was more passion into Chelsea's game). It could be just a coincidence but it also appears that Roberto Di Matteo's West Brom in his year when he promoted them and was in charge there -2009/2010 was also bottom of the Championship's fair play table with 97 points and most cards 91 yellow and 3 red. So, let's hope for a fiery proper English FA Cup match and lots of cards Good luck all.

[muttley]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March Referee is Anthony Taylor, who has a season record of P24 Y76 R5. I don't have his full record for last season, but of the 13 matches he refereed in the Premiership 7 of them finished on 45+ points (P13 Y49 R3). This is a small sample, but it does bear out what sakica is saying, and I'm in! :ok

[western skies]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March Birmingham v Chelsea: Chelsea -2 (AH) @ 4.0 with Bet365 Hands up - I am a Chelsea fan but, in my defence, I very rarely back my own team. It's possible that I've taken leave of my senses, but I've thought long and hard about how this game will go tonight and for me it boils down to whether the team will perform for Di Matteo or not. We have a number of senior players who are not so much drinking in the last chance saloon as hiding under the tables whilst time at the bar is being called, and even they must realise that letting down another manager is simply not an option if they harbour any ambition of starting the season with Chelsea come next August. No doubt the league will be the priority, but this match offers the perfect opportunity to show the owner that they can still perform with passion and commitment, and that they are willing to rally behind Di Matteo and try to salvage something from the mess we are currently in. If this happens, then we are certainly capable of running out comfortable winners at St Andrews tonight. Birmingham have had a tough season up to now and their Europa League exploits have looked like catching up with them over the last few games, not least at the weekend when they let a 2 goal lead slip at home to Derby. They've already played an incredible 46 games this term and the endless stream of midweek games are bound to take their toll on a Championship side. I expect them to be well up for the fight again tonight, but if they come up against a Chelsea side that for once is united behind their manager and fully committed to the cause, then I think they will struggle and thoughts could drift towards the battle for the play offs once the game seems beyond them. I don't deny for a moment that this is a very speculative play, and there's every chance that the egos in our dressing room will fail once again to see the bigger picture and put in another insipid, uninspiring display, but I'm willing to take a small stakes punt on professional pride overcoming self interest in the CFC dressing room tonight. :hope

[sakica]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March

Referee is Anthony Taylor' date=' who has a season record of P24 Y76 R5. I don't have his full record for last season, but of the 13 matches he refereed in the Premiership 7 of them finished on 45+ points (P13 Y49 R3). This is a small sample, but it does bear out what sakica is saying, and I'm in! :ok[/quote'] Cheers Muttley. For the more conservative punters Paddy Power are also offering 2.29 on the over 30 points market which is still great value. I will just ad that as explained on the Champions League thread

I will take: A

double of Arsenal vs AC Milan and Birmingham Chelsea FC -- both over 45 points at: 10.31 with >William Hill, stake 3/10 Good luck

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March

Birmingham Chelsea Important match for Chelsea soon after the AVB sacking. Caretaker Di Matteo says that his first job will be to instill passion into the Chelsea players who have been lethargic of late. It has been well publicized that his Monday's training team talk has been that everyone's heads are on the line from now till the end of the season when a massive clear-out is expected. He has to start saving Chelsea's season now, today at Birmingham. I believe that there is absolutely no value offered on the offered odds for Chelsea to win at 1.80, but I think that bookies have got the card market wrong. Whatever Chelsea team will play out there will be edgy, fired up and wanting to show that passion Di Matteo is asking for. Things, though won't be that easy at Birmingham and I believe we will see cards, especially if things don't go Chelsea's way early. Ladbrokes are going as as far as 4.0 (3/1) on over 45 booking points which I think has tremendous value and will take with medium stakes. I will also put a small stake on over 55 booking points at 6.0 with William Hill. A couple of stats and trivia to support my bet: On the current Premier League Fair play table Chelsea are rock bottom with 64 points in total (56 yellow 4 red cards) even though most were from the early part of the season ( when there was more passion into Chelsea's game). It could be just a coincidence but it also appears that Roberto Di Matteo's West Brom in his year when he promoted them and was in charge there -2009/2010 was also bottom of the Championship's fair play table with 97 points and most cards 91 yellow and 3 red. So, let's hope for a fiery proper English FA Cup match and lots of cards Good luck all.

Referee is Anthony Taylor' date=' who has a season record of P24 Y76 R5. I don't have his full record for last season, but of the 13 matches he refereed in the Premiership 7 of them finished on 45+ points (P13 Y49 R3). This is a small sample, but it does bear out what sakica is saying, and I'm in! :ok[/quote'] such convincing arguments I must say, though Im tempted, I hate bets such as this on corners and cards... usually a high commission market with low stakes. Best of luck on your bets though! I know birmingham are missing half their squad, but I still think its ridiculous to dismiss Villas-Boas only to appoint RDM until the end of the season. Surely keep him at least until the end of the season, obvious being superior to RDM? I dont think the players will give RDM much rep and probably less than AVB imo. Drifting Birmingham odds is enough for me to take: Birmingham+0.5 2.450 Pinnacle 2/10

[Kiddo112]

Followed with a small bet on the bookings, but a more conservative one as well. Split stake to leave a push on 25-45 points: 0.6pts 25-45 booking points @2.5 0.9pts +45 booking points @4.0 Both Ladbrokes

[sambo1983]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March In their first clash there was only 3 bookings, and 1 of those was in injury time, aren't cards generally rarer in cup games compared to Premier League? SportingIndex offering 34 on cards, i'm considering it after reading this thread.

[goodens]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (England - Cups)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Birmingham - Chelsea[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Chelsea(-2.5)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]5/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]06/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle Sports @ 5.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Going for a risky choice here. Fact is, Birmingham is missing most of its defenders from what I read. With Curtis Davis a doubt, Carr, David Murph and Caldwell certain to miss out, only Spector is left as a regular starter in the hosts defence. Actuall, in the first game it was all about defending from Birmingham, and Carr, as well as Murph were the full-backs. While Ibanez and Curtis partnered in the center of defence. Now, for sure Spector will step in. There is also the factor of games plaed this season, and surprisingly, Birmingham played more. Chelsea... they can't be any poorer than under AVB - that's all I'm thinking. With so many missings in the Birmingham defence, which I see more as a good team on the road, capable of defending well and scoring from few chances, but at home the struggle more, just like their 2 recent league games shown, losing to Nottingham 2-1 and 2-2 draw with Derby. I believe Chelsea to win by 3 goals here is doable, altough I know I am asking a lot, but fact is, if things go like we all expect, Chelsea getting a lead and at sometime doubling it, Birmingham will have nothing left to lose, and the guests will have more chances. Excellent moment for AVB to leave, and for Birmingham to have so many missings in defence... seems like destiny. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[western skies]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March

Birmingham v Chelsea: Chelsea -2 (AH) @ 4.0 with Bet365

Meh - stake returned. A better performance from us, but just not clinical enough to make the chances count.

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March

such convincing arguments I must say, though Im tempted, I hate bets such as this on corners and cards... usually a high commission market with low stakes. Best of luck on your bets though! I know birmingham are missing half their squad, but I still think its ridiculous to dismiss Villas-Boas only to appoint RDM until the end of the season. Surely keep him at least until the end of the season, obvious being superior to RDM? I dont think the players will give RDM much rep and probably less than AVB imo. Drifting Birmingham odds is enough for me to take: Birmingham+0.5 2.450 Pinnacle 2/10

-2u