"The Most Likely Result System"

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" ​took longer than expected, but I have some results now...

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Due to self imposed constraints...I looked at the following leagues but only from this season (more later if we want): [TABLE=width: 200]

[TR] [TD]Austrian Bundesliga[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Belgian Jupiler League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Danish Superliga[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]English Championship[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]English League One[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]English League Two[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]French Ligue One[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]German Bundesliga[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Greek Super League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Italian Serie A[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dutch Eredivisie[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Portuguese Liga[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scottish Premier[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scottish Division One[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scottish Division Two[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scottish Division Three[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Spanish La Liga[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swedish Allsvenskan[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swiss Super League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Turkish Süper Lig Out of 5131 played matches, 199 were eligible[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" before i post more, i'd like to verify the results, and get back to you :D

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" done, verified using 16 special herbs and spices... selections: 198 average odds: 1.55 - 4.5 - 8 home wins: (130) 66% draws: (41) 21% away wins: (27) 14% (for laying) NOT away wins: 171 (86%) most common results: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%) TOTAL backing return (without dropping any fixtures): -4.51 TOTAL backing yield (same as above): -2% TOTAL laying return (as above): 5.99 TOTAL laying return (as above): 3%

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Here is the list of potential selections - from this you can drop whichever you would have dropped, and then know what kind of true yield/strike rate you would have experienced... [ATTACH]2314[/ATTACH]

conv_2274.xls

[robkor]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Lunatism, you have done some nice work here. However it looks like the odds you used had a high margin built in (108%)...I guess the -2% yield could turn into a positive one if you bet with Betfair or some low margin book?

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System"

Here is the list of potential selections - from this you can drop whichever you would have dropped' date= and then know what kind of true yield/strike rate you would have experienced... [ATTACH]2314[/ATTACH]

Great work Lunatism I will look more in depth at these results in time the first thing I noticed is the home win percentage is almost the same as my current strike rate 66% compared to 68%.

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System"

Lunatism' date=' you have done some nice work here. However it looks like the odds you used had a high margin built in (108%)...I guess the -2% yield could turn into a positive one if you bet with Betfair or some low margin book?[/quote'] Good point, and something I forgot to mention - when i do my backtesting, i generally just use the average odds from BetExplorer for several reasons...one being that they are generally more consistent that sticking to a single book when sometimes (for whatever reason) games aren't all covered. The other reason (and this one perhaps is just a personal thing), but when I'm testing when of my own system and i see a super positive yield at average odds (without looking for example at Betfair or trying to find the best odds on a match by match basis - which I can if there is a request - will just take a day or so of extra data collection), i *know* that it will be a hit on Betfair. Because i've always got my mind on the next project, I sometimes forget to mention this :wall

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System"

Great work Lunatism I will look more in depth at these results in time the first thing I noticed is the home win percentage is almost the same as my current strike rate 66% compared to 68%.

no problem at all, i'm just sorry I couldn't have provided this data as soon as I would have liked! But the strike rates being similar, does that bother you? Or will those extra variables (that you mentioned in an earlier post) help jump past the 66%-68% mark?

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" This weeks picks with BET365 odds and suggested bets. MILAN V GENOA (1.22) WOLFSBURG V AUGSBURG (1.72) B.MONCHENGLADBACH V COLOGNE (1.50) REAL MADRID V SPORTING GIJON (1.06) MALAGA V REAL SOCIEDAD (1.50) FEYENOORD V EXCELSIOR (1.16) TWENTE V NAC BREDA (1.25) AJAX V DE GRAAFSCHAP (1.06) ARSENAL V WIGAN (1.25) Suggested Bet (lets try a Lucky 15 on the four highest odds) WOLFSBURG/B.MONCHENGLADBACH/MALAGA/TWENTE (2PT LUCKY15 =30PTS BET) CURRENT BANK 135.94 PTS BETS THIS WEEK 30 PTS

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Another disappointing week for the system with only 50% wins Overall 45 from 69 results correct 65% strike rate. I shall now stop posting weekly picks for this season (hurrah I hear you cry) and look at different changes i could make to the system before next season. Thanks to Lunatism for the work he put in on backtesting. MILAN V GENOA P-P WOLFSBURG V AUGSBURG lost B.MONCHENGLADBACH V COLOGNE :) REAL MADRID V SPORTING GIJON :) MALAGA V REAL SOCIEDAD drew FEYENOORD V EXCELSIOR :) TWENTE V NAC BREDA drew AJAX V DE GRAAFSCHAP :) ARSENAL V WIGAN lost Just 4pts back on Lucky 15 Starting Bank 200pts Current Bank 109.94 pts:(

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System"

Another disappointing week for the system with only 50% wins Overall 45 from 69 results correct 65% strike rate. I shall now stop posting weekly picks for this season (hurrah I hear you cry) and look at different changes i could make to the system before next season. Thanks to Lunatism for the work he put in on backtesting. MILAN V GENOA P-P WOLFSBURG V AUGSBURG lost B.MONCHENGLADBACH V COLOGNE :) REAL MADRID V SPORTING GIJON :) MALAGA V REAL SOCIEDAD drew FEYENOORD V EXCELSIOR :) TWENTE V NAC BREDA drew AJAX V DE GRAAFSCHAP :) ARSENAL V WIGAN lost Just 4pts back on Lucky 15 Starting Bank 200pts Current Bank 109.94 pts:(

are you sure you want to pull the 2011-12 plug so soon? maybe a stake plan revision is in order, after all, you would still be in profit (just) if you were laying the away teams...

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Have decided to continue posting the system picks for the rest of the season but without odds or suggested bets. I have also added a small tweak to the criteria required from the form table whereby the home team must now be in the top half and the away team in the bottom half of the last 6 games current form table. So this weeks picks are Montpellier v Valenciennes Lyon v Lorient Vitoria Guimares v Uniao de leira Ajax v Groningen Panathinaikos v Panaitolikos Just of interest the new rule knocked out these games which would have qualified previously Juventus/Az Alkmaar/Newcastle

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Wow what a weekend just when you decide the system may come under the influence of late season upsets it produces a 100% result. Even the matches knocked out by the new rule (see previous post) came good. :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap Montpellier v Valenciennes :D Lyon v Lorient :D Vitoria Guimares v Uniao de leira :D Ajax v Groningen :D Panathinaikos v Panaitolikos :D Strike Rate now 50 from 74 (67%) Games knocked out by new rule Juventus :)/Az Alkmaar :)/Newcastle :)

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" THIS WEEKS PICKS .AFTER LAST WEEK I HAVE KEPT IN THE NEW RULE SO JUST THREE MATCHES QUALIFY THIS WEEK. VITESSE V EXCELSIOR NEC V RKC WAALWIJK SPORTING LISBON V ACADEMICA :hope :hope :hope STRIKE RATE CURRENTLY 50 FROM 74 MATCHES (67%)

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" 2 from 3 this week keeping up the average. Strike Rate now 52 from 77 Matches (66%) VITESSE V EXCELSIOR won :loon NEC V RKC WAALWIJK drew :( SPORTING LISBON V ACADEMICA won :loon

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Seven matches picked out this week. Hope we can improve the average slightly. (66%) :hope :hope UDINESE V GENOA LYON V BREST ST ETIENNE V MARSEILLE STUTTGART V WOLFSBURG BENFICA V UNIAO DE LEIRIA AZ ALKAMAAR V GRONINGEN MAN UTD V SWANSEA Have placed the rule I added a few weeks back onto the first post.

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" 5 from 7 matches correct last week. 57 correct now from 84 matches (68% strike rate) UDINESE V GENOA ;) LYON V BREST :( ST ETIENNE V MARSEILLE :( STUTTGART V WOLFSBURG ;) BENFICA V UNIAO DE LEIRIA ;) AZ ALKAMAAR V GRONINGEN ;) MAN UTD V SWANSEA ;) System picks out 4 games for final week Milan v Novara 14:00 Sun Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica 18:30 Sat Basle v Grasshoppers 16:45 Sat Lucerne v Lausanne Sports 16:45 Sat :hope:hope:hope:hope

[tennysonboy]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System" Milan v Novara 14:00 Sun :p Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica 18:30 Sat :@ Basle v Grasshoppers 16:45 Sat :p Lucerne v Lausanne Sports 16:45 Sat :p 3 out of 4 for the final week giving a total of 60 correct results from 88 matches predicted. A 69% strike rate. To all punters have a great summer enjoy the Euros and see you next year. :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[lunatism]

Re: "The Most Likely Result System"

69% strike rate

aaah, so you jumped a few points ahead of last season - that is pretty good you know! let me know if you want any extra work done on the new variables that you are (or were) planning on adding to the system. As long as I know in good time (before the new seasons kick in), then I should be able to help out! I'm usually not one for sentiment, but I went to the Europa League Final (as an Atlético fan) last week, painted my face, did all that stuff, and without doubt, I must say that it was one of the greatest experiences of my life! I really wish anyone going to the Champions League final the best of luck, and with the Euros too!