2012 Six Nations

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations

Happy with the Spreads this weekend. I think France will easily cover the 6 point spread against Scotland, even if THAT French team turns up. They looked good against Italy and with that game under their belt and a big recovery I think they will be fighting fresh and could tear Scotland Apart. Although I think England Wales will be close as do the likes of Paddy Power with a 2 point spread I think Wales could win by the odd try and cover the 2 point spread comfortably. They look very strong and are going to push on after an impressive World Cup Campaign, there is also that added incentive of clinching the triple crown. Double:(3 units) Wales -2 @ 1.9 Paddypower.com France -6 @ 1.9 Paddypower.com

Those matches take place on the 25th and 26th mate. Still, no harm in taking them early if the line and price are nice.

[ragstoriches]

Re: 2012 Six Nations

Those matches take place on the 25th and 26th mate. Still' date=' no harm in taking them early if the line and price are nice.[/quote'] Knew there was a break coming up, thought it was after this weekend, cheers, think i might hold out and see if France shortens spreads to -5 just in case, pretty happy with Wale's spread though

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 25 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Ireland v Italy (13:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.08 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]56 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]15.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]England v Wales (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.66 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]27 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.7 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 26 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Scotland v France (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.95 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]30 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Elchubb]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Anyone else had a look at the spreads for this weekend yet? Had these kicking around in my head for over a week now, usually takes me a matter of minutes to know what i'm leaning towards but i just can't seem to make a decision this week, here's my thought process, let's see if writing it down helps me out and if anyone else has got any thoughts i'd love to hear them! Ireland v Italy Before the six nations had started I'd decide to side with Italy at home and oppose them away from home on the handicaps, as that is generally the way to play the Italians! If the french hadn't given them cheap penalty points and missed there own kicks in the first it would be 2 from 2 so far. I really can't see the Irish given Italy many cheap points tomorrow but i not not sure if i can see the Irish scoring 3 or more tries needed to probably cover a line of -14! Castrogiovanni is missing for the Italians which is a massive blow for them but i also think that Ireland aren't the same team without O'Driscoll and that is probably a bigger blow for them! The fact Ireland didn't play against the french probably is a boost for them with an extra weeks rest and the fact they'll be itching to get on the pitch and play some rugby! So do i stick to opposing the Italians away from home on a line that i think might be a couple of points too high or do i leave it alone? England v Wales For a team to be as short as 4/7 -3 is pretty much a no brainer but i'm not sure Wales should be as short as that, i know they're the team everyone's talking about and England's performances have been anything but inspiring, but i really think this is a case of the bookies prejudging where the money is gonna come, and setting their lines accordingly to reduce liabilities! History is not on the Welsh side here as they haven't won at twickenham in over a decade and only once in the last 25 years. People are talking about the 8.9 and 10 combination for England and how they could get over run but i like the changes made and think they are gonna improve the team. Ben Morgan coming in at 8 should of happened at the start of the tournament, form 8 at the moment, will carry ball all day, break the gain line and give the backs a decent platform to work from, England's performances have lifted when he's been on the pitch! (actually really like the whole of our pack, just wish Lawes was in for Pairling!) Don't know a great deal about Lee Dickson at 9 but the only thing i've heard is he likes to get a lot of quick ball to the 10, which will hopefully give Farrell the chance to express himself and show what a creative player he can be in the position that he should be playing! (can't be any less creative than Charlie 'uncreative' Hodgeson) These changes bring Manu Tuilagi back in at 13 which gives us someone who can break a line and a nice crash ball option that Barritt doesn't provide although he's looked good defensively so far! The Welsh do play a really attractive style of rugby and when it goes right it can be devastating, but when not on song it lends itself to mistakes and lost possession, talking about possession, if England start to play a kicking game against this welsh side, they will run it back down their throats all day long and cause them a lot of trouble! Wales were convincing against Scotland and we were disappointing! The Welsh were at home, whilst we were at murrayfield(Scotland always lift their game against us at murrayfield!) and i do believe that home advantage is massive in rugby and if this game was being played in Cardiff I'd be all over the Welsh but it's not it's twickenham and with the English changes they could sneak a win or at the same time the Welsh could leave convincing winners over this new look England side! I just can't make my mind up on this one so i'll probably leave it alone! France v Scotland This one is easy France -6, yes please i'm all over this! i know i've just gone on about home advantage and everything but Scotland are useless and have a useless coach who is stuck in the dark ages when it comes to tactics and the french are a class outfit with a coach who wants to play some nice rugby! England covered this line the other week and i don't expect the Scots(and Coach) to lift their performance as if this was for the Calcutta cup! The French are also a much better side than England at the moment and i would expect them to cover this line with some ease!

[Elchubb]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Having re-read my first post (sorry for my grammar, anyone who's not too bored reading it!) i see the mistake i made with the Ireland Italy game! If the Irish kicking holds up better than the Italians (which i assume it should) then this line is achievable with just the 2 tries as long as they don't give any cheap points away, which makes my mind up in taking Ireland -14 So my plays are: 3pts Ireland -14 @ 1.91 (Stan James) 5pts France -6 @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes) Still undecided on the other game and not sure if i'm thinking with my heart or my head so i'll leave it alone! Would still like to hear what others think on all of this weekends games!

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Just the one from me, can't really add to what has already been said..... Sunday: Scotland vs France 6/10pts France (-6 points) to beat Scotland - 10/11 with Coral Scotland put up a good showing against Wales but their basic errors once again let them down in the end. They shouldn't have had a try disallowed in the 2nd half but overall Wales deserved the comfortable win as the men north of the border just invited pressure and asked to be punished with silly mistakes throughout. They do lack creativity and if France can minimise the threat of Stuart Hogg they can ensure they come away from Scotland with an easy enough win. The French have named a strong line-up that, man for man, is head and shoulders above their opposition from the scrum to the line-out to finishing moves off. They have more of an edge in attack than Scotland, as most do these days, so I can see them winning by 7 or more points.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Great posts lads, i think i'll stick a pound or two on the French too. I'd been hoping the Scots would eventually progress but as argued elsewhere recently the 6N is turning into a two tier competition. They could pull off a performance like the one against South Africa a few years back but ultimately the French are better competitors with squads boasting more knockout experience. Would love to see Duncan Weir given a chance to compete for the 10 jersey, I think his distribution and kicking has improved immeasurably and the coach really needs to reign his selection policies and find some sort of balance in the matchday squad. The French just made the WC final, and are looking good as a squad. With little public pressure on them they'll be the team to stop in this years championship. I think it'll be a very entertaining game and looking forward to seeing how the French have come on, especially with the practical and efficient 9-10 Parra-Trinh Duc combo at half back. Hoping the pts total will rise a bit more to have a look at the unders too. Always something to think about at Murrayfield. Not much to say on the other games, just looking forward to watching the boys in green in and the epic in Twickenham later in the day. Super Rugby back on this week, must get a thread going. Good luck boys :hope

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 2012 Six Nations No thoughts on Ireland v Italy. I'd say Italy on the h/t handicap -7 but won't have a bet. Josh Lewsey (I think it was) was banging on in Thursday's Telegraph about how England can beat Wales: enjoy Twickenham, attack the line-out, tackle etc. They can do all this as Wales win by 10-15. Some green shoots for Scotland in Denton at 8; and Hogg at 15 looks useful. But on Sunday France will progress comfortably to their Grand Slam shoot-out with Wales in Cardiff, winning here by 12-17. The double Wales & France, on the 'caps, looks like easy pickings :p

[Elchubb]

Re: 2012 Six Nations

3pts Ireland -14 @ 1.91 (Stan James) :ok 5pts France -6 @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes) :wall

A nice win for Ireland brings the first bet in, didn't see the game as i was playing myself but heard it was comprehensive and a good performance! Then a mixture of France under performing along with the Scots starting to finish off their plays in the first half and finally a missed penalty at the death mean the second bet's a loser! (was impressed by Hogg at 15 for Scotland) Leaves me -2.27pts this weekend!

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Annoying that Scotland upped their game considerably but good to see bets come in for others in here.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations France vs Ireland is this Sunday guys :ok

[antogz]

Re: 2012 Six Nations 9 pts Ireland + 9 5/6 StanJames

I really fancy Ireland to cover the handicap here. Statistically Ireland haven't a chance 1 win in 40 years and that was with the help of an inspired Brian O'Driscoll. In a lot of these matches France have got a 10 point start and then Ireland start to play rugby. If Ireland can cut this out, they will cover the handicap and have a small squeak of winning the match. This french team have been mediocre in their first 2 matches. Scotland should have beaten them. They just weren't clinical enough on the day, I feel if Ireland were in that position they would have put them away. It took a powder puff tackle from Jones for Malzieu to pass to Medard for them to win the match. They under performed against Italy as well and the scoreline flattered them. If Malzieu had not got that try before halftime, France would have struggled. A couple of tries near the end made the score look good. The WC final apart France have played badly or not up to their best in 8 out of 9 matches. I don't think they have picked the best team either. Servat is a superior prop to Szarzwewski, Nallet is a better lock than Maestri. Bonnaire inclusion is a strange one, this a match set up for Picamoles. Picamoles speed will be sorely missed against Heaslip, Ferris ans O'Brien. Bonnaire is a good lineout option, but i don't think he has the speed for this anymore. Mas is not the player he was either and Ireland shouldn't fear them in the scrum like they used to. Trinh-Duc seemed to play a very narrow game against the Scots and didn't pass out to his backs like he used to. The French backs got starved of possession at times, which is madness considering how dangerous they are. Clerc, Malzieu, Rougerie and Fofana are fantastic players, if you let them play. Hopefully Ireland play on the gain line Sunday, it is the best way to stop those backs. Medard is a loss as well as Poitrenaud is not the player he was. Ireland had a good win against Italy but again it was the last 20 min when they opened up. I just think Ireland are not a 9 point inferior team. Their lineout has been very good, the scrum is solid and they have turned over more ball than other team. If they play with a high line defensively they will stop France playing. I just think France aren't as good as people think and if Ireland are within 7 at H/T they have a great chance of winning the game. A few more bets that are good value. I can see it been a tight affair and the 11/8 with Ladbrokes for a drop goal is good value. Trinh-Duc is a fucker for them and O'Gara will be brought on if it is tight. No better man for a drop goal under pressure. Earls at 9/2 anytime tryscorer with skybet is tasty. The man is a clinical finisher and his opposite number Rougerie has defensive frailties. Ireland are very slow starters especially against France, but they finish games well so the 11/1 with PaddyPower France H/T Irealnd F/T is worth a shot. Ireland to win is worth a bet, but the odds to win between 1-10 pts with PP are 7/2 which are better odds. I can't see Ireland winning by more than 10. The handicap is the main bet above with 9 out of 10 4pts Drop goal 11/8 2pts Earls anytime 9/2 1pt Ireland win 1-10 pts 7/2 0.75 pts France/Irealand H/T/F/T

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Nice write-up there! I've changed my view slightly since the last game so will come back tomorrow if I am going to get involved. Good Luck.

[Elchubb]

Re: 2012 Six Nations Nice write up there antogz, think the drop goal could be a good shout! I'm gonna side with history and the french here. This game should largely depend on who starts it best today, both sides in recent weeks have been slow out the blocks! I feel that the french side's reason for this has been under estimating their opposition, something they won't be doing today and they are generally a better side at home! So hopefully home advantage and a better mindset from the start should help the french into making the first blow here today and if turning that into a lead at half time, i can't really see them throwing it away or not covering the handicap! 3pts France -7 @ EVS (Ladbrokes) 5pts France/France HT/FT @ 8/11 (Betfred)

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations The fixtures aren't copying for some reason. Wales host Italy tomorrow whilst Scotland travel to Ireland before England go to France on Sunday.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations I've had a bit of a nightmare recently so will try and turn that around this weekend. Here are my selections for tomorrow: Wales vs Italy 5/10pts Italy (+10 points) to be beating Wales at half-time - 10/11 with SkyBet 3/10pts Leigh Halfpenny to score a try - 7/4 with William Hill Italy have covered this line in all their matches this campaign and, whilst I expect them to lose by a decent margin come full-time, I think they will put up their usual first-half good show. They have Mirco Bergamasco back to provide a more consistent threat when it comes to kicking at goal so they can keep the scoreboard ticking over if given the chances. They also have threats in the backs should they get opportunites to score a try. The forward line are always a tough proposition to deal with and tomorrow will be no different as Wales will look to cope with the pressure put on them in the opening stages. When the forwards tire is when Italy let a lot of good situations slip away and I can see it being the case here. They will need to put in a huge effort to keep it tight early on and I think that is possible although they will definitely open up in the second half. There are some genuine class acts in the Italian pack so I think a 10 point advantage is a bit too much. Leigh Halfpenny has been one of the players of the tournament so far and has already bagged 2 tries to go along with a massive amount of points from the boot. He will get plenty of space to run in, especially in the second half, and there aren't many about at the moment when it comes to taking advantage of that. He has pace, an eye for gaps and creativity as far as both scoring and setting up tries is concerned. I think this price is a bit too big so i'm happy to have a small bit on it.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 Six Nations I will leave the Ireland match alone as they have both been very up and down so far this season and be back tomorrow with some for the England gamme.