BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012

[Jimmy2shoes]

Ran a cracker last time out at Ayr and won well. Trainer F.Murphy now sends him down to Warwick and he rates another nice chance of a win. Same jockey back on-board as before, if he can switch him off again at the back as before the 10yr old has a great chance to follow up from Ayr. From what i can see its Mr Murphy's sole runner on the card, and sole ride for jockey J.Winston. ​Warwick 3:25 - Ockey de Neulliac. 1pt win @ 7/2 Ladbrokes.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012

*Tharawaat - Gowran Park 3:05*

Big competitive race this Thyestes Chase, the fav is currently 8/1, but 25/1 is far too big for this Gordon Elliott horse, especially with Davy Russell booked to ride. Absolutely hacked up on heavy ground at Galway over 2m 6f three starts back, beating Indifference Curve by 7 lengths and has proved it stays the trip when winner of a 3 runner event at Navan over 3 miles in February 2011. Last time out it was 13th of 25 in a hot race at Navan, but if it gets back to its best here, it will have a big chance of coming into the places, it has dropped a pound in the weights, its place record is 14/24 and on its only run here at Gowran it was 2nd. There is no doubting this is a very talented horse as he has routed big fields a couple of times, the Gordon Elliott stable have not struck it hot after 2 winners at Musselburgh today, both winning very impressively. Davy Russell has a terrific record for Elliott, 17 wins from 92 rides producing a profit of £23.62 to level stakes, and at Gowran Park for Elliott he is 1 win from 4 rides producing a profit of £9.00 to level stakes. Definately worth an e/w bet with 4 places on offer at a standout price.

*0.5 Points E/W @ 25/1 Stanjames*

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 14:25 Newcastle Eyre Square Win (6,00) >Bet365 Eyre Square have showen decent form, over fences. He won his laste run at Kelso against better company and generaly looks strong, whitin the last six months. The 9 year old, only fell once in his 19 runs. The risk is therefore minimal, for another fall. Eyre Square previous won over course and distance. The 3m have been his ideal distance, whit several wins and placed. The latest win at Kelso, brings him up 5lb. Its a career high mark but i would be surpriced, if he couldnt overcome that minor weight increes. The ground is expected to be soft. He god some decent runs, under simular conditions and several wins. He do prefer a good going and the weather forcast i Newcastle for Thuesday, says no rain and sunny. Eyre Square recent form. 4-1-2-4-1 The jockey James Reveley have been a regular on this horse. This is there 17th race in a row

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 3.05 navan AD IDEM 20/1 willhill Cracking handicap chase for a thursday, selecting top weight in a soft ground handicap over 3 miles can often seem crazy and quick way to a poor house, however AD IDEM is an exception in my eyes here, he jumps absolutely brilliantly and his effort in the troytown was brilliant he was the best horse that day by a good few lengths, he has his quirks, clearly he doesnt like sticking his head in front and when he takes up the running he finds nothing and falls in a black hole. Step up to the plate Andrew Mcnamara i'm hopeful he can finesse him to the front, (i will be setting up a lay in-running to get my stake back as the way he jumps and travels i'm pretty confident he will trade shorter) asking a lot i know but fair value at big price, trainer says can put a line through her horses over xmas because they had a stable problem but tests on this horse's blood show he back fine. 1pt win 20/1 willhill 1pt win

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 6.05 Kempton - Steady Gaze - He being brought out again very quickly after his win over course and distance two days ago. He won easily that day winning by with a margin of 6 lengths. If he has recovered enough from exertions then he could put in another good run today. He's a two time course/distance winner and will need to improve to take this higher grade handicap today. Some Trainer stats First Rock (G A Swinbank) 8 wins and 2 places from his last 20 runners (+9.71pts to 1pt level stakes) 1 win and 3 places from his last 15 runners here at Kempton (-12.63pts to 1pt level stakes) Unex Picasso (I Williams) 7 wins and 5 places from his last 20 runners (+23.08pts to 1pt level stakes) 5 wins and 4 places from his last 20 runners here at Kempton (+3.42pts to 1pt level stakes) Steady Gaze (R Rowe) 5 wins and 1 place from his last 20 runners (+43.5pts to 1pt level stakes) 4 wins and 0 places from his last 19 runners here at Kempton (+48.5pts to 1pt level stakes) The dangers using trainer stats look to be First Rock and Unex Picasso, with both trainers looking to be in good form. R Rowe's stats also look good and he seems to be getting bigger prices for winners to boot.

6.05 Kempton: Steady Gaze - 1pt win @ 7/2 Paddy Power (BOG)

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 Warwick - 14.25 - Areuwitmenow 0.5pt EW @ 14/1 - Boylesports (BOG) Going to stick with the inform trainer jockey duo that is Charlie Longsdon and Keilan Woods that served me well today for my BBOTD pick. Placed in 2 hurdle races from 5 starts last year, one of which was over tomorrows course and distance. Made his re-appearance after a 266 day absence last month and was dissapointing. But i'm going to put that down to the break and should go better carrying 7lbs less than that day. Seems to prefer the better ground so could be taking a slight risk with the ground forecast to be Good to Soft.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012

5.15 Meydan Rajsaman 1pt win @ 6/1

>William Hill

I see this as the first big race of the carnival and for me it revolves around the top 3 in the betting. Presvis is one of my favourite horses and I do love his running style but I really don’t think this race will be run to suit. There does not look to be an obvious front runner in the field and this will go against Presvis. He is without doubt a classy horse having won in group 1 company at last year’s carnival but he needs a storing pace to run at and he for me he needs a bigger field. I think one quite inetesting thing about his career is that he has never won a race with less than 10 runners. There are only 9 runners here and the lack of pace has to be a big negative for him. He did win this race last year but I am happy to swerve him today. The next one to look at is Musir who won so easily a couple of weeks ago on the Tapeta surface. This race looks much tougher but he won it with such authority, that he looks certain to be involved in the finish here. It is possible that he is better on the all weather surface but he does handle turf. He went close in Hong Kong to finish 3^rd behind Extension over a mile on turf and he won a weak looking group 2 in Italy. In 7 races at Meydan he has never raced on the turf so it will be interesting to see how handles it compared to the Tapeta. At 11/8 I am happy to looks elsewhere. The one that I like the look of here is the ex Freddy Head horse Rajsaman. Rajsaman is now trained with the UAE champion trainer A Al Raihe and I think he has a great chance of going close in this. He is versatile as to how he is ridden and with him being drawn in 4; I can see him being prominent. Royston French is actually one of the top jockeys over in Dubai and is actually 2^nd in the current rankings with 22 winners. I expect him to be well placed when the pace quickens in this race and he might be able to steal a march on his rivals. He actually ran at the carnival last year and finished 10^th in the Dubai Duty Free which was won by Presvis. I think his form after that is what makes him a big threat here. He returned to France to win a group 2 in comfortable fashion in the first time blinkers and ever since that run he has wore them. It looks to have made a big difference with the horse as his only bad run in 6 runs since the Dubai Duty Free came in the Sussex Stakes behind Frankel which I reckon can be totally ignored. His best performance arguably came at Longchamp over this trip where he finished with a real rattle to finish just a length behind Goldikova and Cirrus Des Aigles. His last run came in the Hong Kong Mile where he didn’t get the clearest of runs but still finished fast to get 7^th and finished just over 2 lengths behind the winner. I think he is best equipped to cope with a tactial affair and the trainer has stated he is very happy with him and they can’t wait to get him on the track. Musir is probably the most likely winner but Rajsaman is classy himself and at the odds I think he is worth backing. I can’t see him finishing out the frame if he runs to form. His new trainer has kept the blinkers on and I fully expect a big run from him.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 From Wizzkid Walter

2:55 Warwick - Pacha Du Polder - Back He has a monumental chance here. He's rated at least 23lbs better than all 3 rivals here and has at least 20lbs in hand based on the weights in relation to ratings. He was pitched in at Grade 2 level last time, and although he was comprehensively beaten, this is a much easier race for him and he should take a world of beating here 1pt win @ SP

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 2.45 Newcastle - 1pt win Fabalu @ 10/1 (Bet365) Really competitive staying chase over three miles here, which is sure to be a test in the mud, and that will suit Donald McCain's lightly raced 10yo. Each of Fabalu's four wins under rules have come on soft or heavy ground, including over three miles (hurdles and chases) and over even further, so today's test should be no problem at all. However, these wins came a couple of seasons ago. A mark of 138 was probably a little excessive, even though he never really got chance to test this out in handicaps in his later chasing runs, but 127 now is probably fair enough. He was a good 6th in the 4 mile contest at Cheltenham in 2010 - weakening gradually - but was a game winner of his two starts either side of that before being off the track for 18 months. His return at Ffos Las came under ideal conditions - a 3m2f chase on heavy ground - and for all he was well-beaten in the end, it was a really promising effort in my eyes. Considering his absence, the fact Henry Brooke was on board (no negative, but perhaps said he wasn't expected to do too much), and the way he edged out to 5/1 from 7/2 in the betting, meant he wasn't guaranteed to be ready. It was a good quality affair for a four horse race with the prolific Victory Gunner and high-class Swing Bill in there, and my selection took them along. He didn't miss a single fence out (until perhaps when beaten) and travelled/jumped better than anything. He was the last horse off the bridle, for all he didn't find much off it, and shaped as if plenty of ability remained. It was a real struggle out there for all of the horses, and even though he relishes this, it would have been a serious effort to keep up the gallop after such a long period on the sidelines. There was enough hope in the run to suggest he'd come on hugely for it and be a player this season. He's had a month off the track which is probably about right and should strip much fitter today. He jumped smartly at the Welsh venue and hopefully he can do so again here. He's a nice price at 10/1 and Jason Maguire takes the ride which is a positive move. Any market support would be very interesting and the fact that connections pitch him into a competitive race suggests they also feel the horse retains ability. Many of these have chances but the test might be a little too taxing for Tyrone House, whereas Allanard (tipped up when winning recently) has to prove he can do it on this kind of ground which makes him a lay. Eyre Square stays four miles so trying to win off a career-high mark back at 3 miles might be tricky. Anyway, my selection is well worth a smallish win bet at 10/1 with conditions to suit him down to the ground now he's race-fit.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 2.45 Newcastle Fabalu win 10/1 Bet365 Can be forgiven his last run at Ffos Las where he had ideal conditions but was returning to the race course after a 21 month abscence. His jumping seemed as good as ever however and I am sure he will have come on for the run. The slight drop back in trip will help and again the ground conditions will be perfect for him. He looked a decent chasing prospect when winning at Chepstow on heavy ground back in 2010 and if retaining that ability could pop in here at a nice price.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 G3.05 Bob Lingo 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports I think this is my first ever BBOTD for Ireland but I'm struggling to find anything in England today. I've just been through the form and the horse that looked of interest was Bob Lingo. I noted that it was a J P McManus horse so thought it would be of even more interest if there was money for it and sure enough it's been backed across a lot of the bookies this morning. The horse races off a handicap mark lower than its last winning one for the first time in a while which is probably part of the plan and the horse has some great performances in the book when racing on this kind of ground over this kind of distance. I think it's a decent e/w price where 4 runners are paid.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 He may have only beaten four rivals home in his last seven starts, but now is probably the best time to catch UNBREAK MY HEART (16:35) as the 150 day absence will have likely been a benefit (often run well fresh in the past) and although he hasn’t done a great deal for this yard, there were signs early in 2011 that this horse was being saved for another day and is worth chancing here today, especially with a ‘proper’ jockey booked. The selection was useful in his younger days, winning off a rating of 89 over a mile in his peak back in 2009. Since then, he’s only got in front once (a 1m2f seller, exceptionally weak affair when entitled to win on official ratings) and has subsequently dropped to a mark of 53, 29lbs of that reduction coming in 2011! It’s fair to say that he’s regressed, but his runs in the early part of 2011 suggested there would at least be a weak race within him, such as his run at Lingfield in a handicap on the 25th Feb, where he wasn’t touched in the closing stages but still made headway, only finishing four lengths back. It does suggest that there’s still ability in the locker somewhere, to me at least. Unbreak My Heart switched yards to Richard Guest and although usually he has gone well fresh, he flopped on his first run for this stable when running at Beverley. It was a pretty dreadful effort but his turf mark was in the 70’s at that point and it was probably a step too far to suggest he would run well off that rating. His next two starts both had extremely legitimate excuses too, one run at Musselburgh when running over too far on soft ground, and last time at Chepstow when made too much use of in front (especially for a hold-up horse) and was sent to race on his own on what was probably a slower part of the track (no other horses as far as I can tell raced there throughout that meeting). Given 150 days off, where his record fresh is respectable in 21738, the 7th being an unlucky one, and the 8th being the aforementioned Beverley effort. Those runs did come when he was a higher quality animal, so perhaps it isn’t that relevant but at least it’s very possible that he can be ready to roll first time out. Richard Guest is in good form, having had two winners yesterday (also runs Gordy Bee, but doesn’t look like much room for manoeuvre with that one). This isn’t a bad race for the grade really, with the Storm Runner/Queethara form not being a bad one by any means, but I feel that a bit of a investment on Unbreak My Heart isn’t a bad one to have, especially as if he got back to something like reasonable form, he’d have a big chance. He’s had excuses the last twice when running at a level around this mark and now with the promising William Carson booked; he could run a much improved race after a break, an absence that should well benefit. The draw could have been kinder but it matters less at a mile here and at prices in double figures, he’s worth chancing. He may well drift to a ridiculous price and run no race but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was gambled on at some point this all-weather season, and today could be the best time to catch him. 16:35 Kempton - Unbreak My Heart; 1pts @ 16/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes (bog)

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 Newcastle 2.45 Fabalu win - 9/1 Boyle Needed it badly lto, but is a very good horse, who I could see as potential National candidate. Was going to run in the Becher Chase last year, but got injured and was out for more than a year. Travelled very strongly before tiring lto and I expect much better show today.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 1.15 Newcastle: South Leinster (6/4 Bet365, WH, VC) 3 miles on soft ground for these novices and doubts about one or two of the leading players which should leave the door wide open for South Leinster to follow up his very impressive win last time out at Catterick. He showed promise last season when second to the very useful Wayward Prince over 3m1f, ran second to Nuts N Bolts this year and then hacked up in that Catterick race. Wont mind the ground and stays all day, should be odds on in my book.

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 6.05 KEMPTON On form i like most of Lucinda Russells at newcastle but after yesterday i think there off form a little!! Therefore i am going for UNEX PICASSO. As shown above, Ian Williams has a good record at the track and this one won last time after being slowly away and running on well. This extra distance should suit, up in grade but i think the extra distance will bring out an even better performance. UNEX PICASSO 4/1 1pt win

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 7.05 Kempton TITUS GENT @ 10/1 bog (Boylesports) I missed to post one of my Meydan selections so I'll go with this one now. Titus Gent is a nice 7 yo trained by Jeremy Gask who has kept on improving (rated 45 in 2009 and up to 82 last December). He is a prolific winner (10 wins in 56 starts, 6 on AW) and his last three wins were all with today's jockey Raul Da Silva who is back on board of Titus Gent for today's race. All his wins came over 6f so he is very much a specialist of this distance and lto he was running over 5f here at Kempton with Adam Kirby on board off the same mark he has today (81) and with the 5lb claim of Raul Da Silva that means he's gonna race off a 5lb lower mark today coming back to his beloved distance. Last race was a very good one as Titus Gent shaped on quickening very well in the last furlong and of course that showed how much he missed a furlong more but also how good is his shape at the moment and that 5f was full of many of actual best sprinters as Cadeaux Pearl, West Coast Dream and Sir Geoffrey (all upped 2-3 lb by the handicapper after that race and all runners in a recent feature Class 2 Handicap over 5f run few days ago at Southwell) and once again Titus Gent, not a 5f specialist at all, came just 1L behind this trio with an impressive quick finale. Many tough opponents in this crowded Class 4 handicap today for my selection. Big support in the market again for Clear Praise and also Earlsmedic makes good appeal if the last performance can be cancelled. Whaileyy represents a top yard, will try blinkers for the first time and will come on from his last run. And many other runners have a decent chance having won over C&D (Lujeanie, Dasho, Requisite) for higher standards in the recent past (Taajub) or for the actual top form (Bandstand) but all of them make less appeal for his current mark and price in the market. So my best bet of the day is Titus Gent at 10/1.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 Celian 3.45 Newcastle. 1 point win. Good effort to win last time and a slight drop in trip can only suit a bit better. Up several pound, but in form, had a little break that refreshes and can win again. Not much in the race that jumps out on paper, so every chance if in the mood again. 5/2 Betfred (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 GENTLE ALICE 3.35 Gowran Park 1 point win. Weighted to go well and should like the race make up much better today. Generally jumps well enough and the trip and ground's fine, so at double figure odds can go very well today. 12/1 Victor Chandler BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012

GENTLE ALICE 3.35 Gowran Park 1 point win. Weighted to go well and should like the race make up much better today. Generally jumps well enough and the trip and ground's fine, so at double figure odds can go very well today. 12/1 Victor Chandler BOG

Cracker Falbrav, well done mate. :clap

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012

GENTLE ALICE 3.35 Gowran Park 1 point win. Weighted to go well and should like the race make up much better today. Generally jumps well enough and the trip and ground's fine, so at double figure odds can go very well today. 12/1 Victor Chandler BOG

NIce one!!!!! wish they could all win as easy as that... Nice to watch.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 Steady Gaze 6.05 Kem 1pt win 7/2 B365 Won as he liked earlier in the week over course and distance. Hard to see a 6lb penalty stopping him if he turns up in the same form again and he doesn't bounce. He also won at his previous attempt over c&d last Sept so clearly likes the track. He lost his way a bit in between when he finished down the field in Wolverhampton and Newbury races but looks to be back in form after being freshened up.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 Later races at Kempton

6.05 Kempton - Steady Gaze - He being brought out again very quickly after his win over course and distance two days ago. He won easily that day winning by with a margin of 6 lengths. If he has recovered enough from exertions then he could put in another good run today. He's a two time course/distance winner and will need to improve to take this higher grade handicap today. Some Trainer stats First Rock (G A Swinbank) 8 wins and 2 places from his last 20 runners (+9.71pts to 1pt level stakes) 1 win and 3 places from his last 15 runners here at Kempton (-12.63pts to 1pt level stakes) Unex Picasso (I Williams) 7 wins and 5 places from his last 20 runners (+23.08pts to 1pt level stakes) 5 wins and 4 places from his last 20 runners here at Kempton (+3.42pts to 1pt level stakes) Steady Gaze (R Rowe) 5 wins and 1 place from his last 20 runners (+43.5pts to 1pt level stakes) 4 wins and 0 places from his last 19 runners here at Kempton (+48.5pts to 1pt level stakes) The dangers using trainer stats look to be First Rock and Unex Picasso, with both trainers looking to be in good form. R Rowe's stats also look good and he seems to be getting bigger prices for winners to boot.

6.05 Kempton: Steady Gaze - 1pt win @ 7/2 Paddy Power (BOG)

6.05 KEMPTON On form i like most of Lucinda Russells at newcastle but after yesterday i think there off form a little!! Therefore i am going for UNEX PICASSO. As shown above, Ian Williams has a good record at the track and this one won last time after being slowly away and running on well. This extra distance should suit, up in grade but i think the extra distance will bring out an even better performance. UNEX PICASSO 4/1 1pt win

7.05 Kempton TITUS GENT @ 10/1 bog (Boylesports) I missed to post one of my Meydan selections so I'll go with this one now. Titus Gent is a nice 7 yo trained by Jeremy Gask who has kept on improving (rated 45 in 2009 and up to 82 last December). He is a prolific winner (10 wins in 56 starts, 6 on AW) and his last three wins were all with today's jockey Raul Da Silva who is back on board of Titus Gent for today's race. All his wins came over 6f so he is very much a specialist of this distance and lto he was running over 5f here at Kempton with Adam Kirby on board off the same mark he has today (81) and with the 5lb claim of Raul Da Silva that means he's gonna race off a 5lb lower mark today coming back to his beloved distance. Last race was a very good one as Titus Gent shaped on quickening very well in the last furlong and of course that showed how much he missed a furlong more but also how good is his shape at the moment and that 5f was full of many of actual best sprinters as Cadeaux Pearl, West Coast Dream and Sir Geoffrey (all upped 2-3 lb by the handicapper after that race and all runners in a recent feature Class 2 Handicap over 5f run few days ago at Southwell) and once again Titus Gent, not a 5f specialist at all, came just 1L behind this trio with an impressive quick finale. Many tough opponents in this crowded Class 4 handicap today for my selection. Big support in the market again for Clear Praise and also Earlsmedic makes good appeal if the last performance can be cancelled. Whaileyy represents a top yard, will try blinkers for the first time and will come on from his last run. And many other runners have a decent chance having won over C&D (Lujeanie, Dasho, Requisite) for higher standards in the recent past (Taajub) or for the actual top form (Bandstand) but all of them make less appeal for his current mark and price in the market. So my best bet of the day is Titus Gent at 10/1.

Steady Gaze 6.05 Kem 1pt win 7/2 B365 Won as he liked earlier in the week over course and distance. Hard to see a 6lb penalty stopping him if he turns up in the same form again and he doesn't bounce. He also won at his previous attempt over c&d last Sept so clearly likes the track. He lost his way a bit in between when he finished down the field in Wolverhampton and Newbury races but looks to be back in form after being freshened up.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 7:35 C'mon You Irons @ Kempton - I used to have a share in this horse and it used to be a talented horse winning three races in a row back in 2009.Is a course and distance winner and is now running off a career low mark with a new combination of tongue tie and visor.Jockey Raul Da Silva takes the ride claiming 5lb and has a 23% strike rate with 4+ year olds over 5-6 furlongs this year with a profit of +11.50.Can go close at a nice price if in the mood. 0.5 pt E/W @ 20/1 VCBet

[stewartd14]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Jan 2012 7.35 Kempton MICROLIGHT WIN @ 16/1 Stan James Tipped this horse last time when he was caught wide the whole way round. Can forgive that run and has to be backed at a big price again tonight from a better draw. 53 is a very lenient mark and with a better trip he'll go close. 6f seems ideal, as weakened right out of it late over 7f at Kempton 3 starts back and then went in at Lingfield over the 6. Competition here, but not the strongest race and this one is well handicapped.