mrmuzeman Posted July 20, 2004 Share Posted July 20, 2004 Hi guys, Anyone ever know of anyone whos done business on this site or been involved with it? www.xxxxxxxxxxxxxx.com Looks quite intersesting but always slightly cautious with sure fire money making schemes etc! Alternatively do any of you lay horses profitably on a regular basis? Cheers for any replies :ok EDIT : hope you don't mind mrmuzeman but i removed the actual webname, nothing wrong with your question but we don't want to start advertising these kind of websites. Lets just say its a site selling information or a service about laying horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 20, 2004 Share Posted July 20, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites The problem is you will never know if a service like this is reliable. You will never know if the information presented is accurate and you will never know if the results will continue in the future. In other words, better give your money to the bank, at least they tell you that : results from the past are no guarantee for results in the future. Also, remember you are betting against an overround, first you need to overcome that and then make a profit. If you add the costs of a service you need an even bigger edge. BTW, why don't you do some simple maths. If it is possible to get 1200% profit in 9 months , as the add says, and you use a starting bank of say 1000 pounds. How long does it take to become a millionaire ? And if you can do that, why bother with selling picks or a service ? Think about it. About laying horses; sure there is money to be made. But i think it can only be done by doing the research yourself. That way you know what you are doing, you know what to expect and you know the risk you take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted July 20, 2004 Share Posted July 20, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites As the site name has been removed (could you PM me with the address), I cannot comment on that. On the general laying of favourites, however, you should concentrate on handicap races, and avoid maidens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheTrebleKing Posted July 20, 2004 Share Posted July 20, 2004 Laying Favourites laying favourites seems a solid way to make money, as only 13% of favourites ever win, then backing every favourite to lose should turn a handsome profit right? well i dunno cos i've never layed a horse nor do i understand it :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 20, 2004 Share Posted July 20, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites don't know where you got that 13% from Trebleking but the stats indicate 33%. Check here with Adrian Massey for some detailled info on how the favourites do, statistically speaking that is www.adrianmassey.com/flfav/index.htm Flat racing www.adrianmassey.com/nhfav/index.htm National Hunt Racing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites As with everything, you won't make money laying favs blindly. You need to introduce certain other factors like laying favs drawn badly at Chester/Beverley, or class droppers - that kind of thing, then you might be in with a hope of making profit :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Laying Favourites Agree with Dave on the handicap idea. Have followed it myself and made some ok profits laying handicap favourites. Seems to work better on the flat than over jumps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 21, 2004 Author Share Posted July 21, 2004 Idiot me that is! Im not up on horses and know very little on them so i dont know the difference between handicaps and maidens etc. Could anyone enlighten me? :unsure Also why was the link deleted? Im not advertising the site saying its good just asking opinions on it, which I cant now get cos its been deleted. Do you guys know of any good sites where I can learn about horse betting more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ONEDUNME Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 My observations Don't know why it should be better on flat than jumps WFTE. I agree that about 1 in 3 favs wins and that the percentage is higher in non-handicaps than handicaps. I haven't really considered favs being dropped down in class before (though I will do from now on:ok ) but it is my perception that you are less likely to get an upset in a hurdle race, than a chase race. If I'm just having a bet for entertainment (wash my mouth out:lol ) I usually go for something in the first two in the betting in a non-handicap hurdle, whereas in a chase, the fav has not only got to prove it can beat all the others, it's also got to stay on its feet over all those bloody obstacles. I find novice chases are especially good for laying, though I havent looked at past statistics (and dont intend to). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ONEDUNME Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Whoops Think you must have posted while I was typing away MrM. If you look in your paper, at the top of every race, it will tell you if the race is a handicap race or not. The theory is that more horses have a chance of winning a handicap race than a non handicap because they are SUPPOSED to be weighted according to their ability and form. The fact that the favs have a lower strike rate in handicap races bears this theory out to some extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 21, 2004 Author Share Posted July 21, 2004 Cheers Thanx for the info datapunter and onedunme. " The favourite in the last race on the card do less well than favourites in other races " Why is this do you think? this is one of the trends found amongst favourites in that link datapunter posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Laying Favourites ONEDUNME, dunno why it should give better results on the flat, just an observation from the races Id tracked. Mentioning novice chases, Ive always heard people saying to avoid or lay short price favs in these races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites Mentioning novice chases, Ive always heard people saying to avoid or lay short price favs in these races I don't have the stats, but that does make sense, as we don't really know how good novice chasers are at jumping the big fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites Tips: Look for horses that carry top weight. Look for horses that are favourite yet not highly rated by the Racing Post ratings. Look for horses that are tackling different ground or surface to the one they did well over last time. Look for favourites coming from a statistically unfavourable draw. Look for horses coming back from a long lay-off, they may be unfit and poor value. Try not to lay odds on - they win more often than lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Re: Laying Favourites Danny You are wrong about laying odds-on. It is laying at short odds in non-handicaps which is a problem. Laying horses odds-on in handicaps blindly gives a ROI of nearly 20% - that is amazing for no input into the selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheTrebleKing Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Laying Favourites handicapping is sposed to make every handicap race a thrilling photo finish between all runners, so why do we still have favourites and outsiders? obviously the handicapper isn't doing his job properly if a horse romps home in the lead by 10 lengths. handicapping is rubbish, they should race horses in a more suitable class than run handicap races in my humble opinion, would make betting alot more exciting. just my 2 pence :D (nothing to do with the topic i know, but i like a good rant occasionally) :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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