Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase

[BillyHills]

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[billvernon]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase My Flora - Point to Point good vibes for the Christies Foxhunter Chase (priced 10/1 ) at Cheltenham is running today at Newbury in the last race - if wins today then can see that price reducing .;)

[billvernon]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Hmmm - says held when Fell 2nd last - was running ok but the boys beat her. Very good run by Chaptoturgeon trained by R.Barber and ridden by his grandson. They say he needs to come 1st or 2nd in another Hunter Chase then will be aimed at the Cheltenham Festival . He won by 16 lengths and Cloudy Lane was 2nd. Chaptoturgeon maybe a good thing for the Hunters chase if he does well in his next race - He has experience at Cheltenham and is young . R.Barber works with Paul Nicholls so this maybe the horse those guys are setting up. Worth a tickle E/W at 10/1

[billvernon]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase

My Flora - Point to Point good vibes for the Christies Foxhunter Chase (priced 10/1 ) at Cheltenham is running today at Newbury in the last race - if wins today then can see that price reducing .;)

Well I think My Flora has definetly shot Her bolt after her run yesterday 30th Jan - so now looking at Chaptoturgeon on next run .

[best mate]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase I was mightily impressed with Monkerty Tunkerty as Warwick last week. While it would be a negative having such an inexperienced rider, she's also the trainer/owner, and it was her first ride/win under rules, I cannot be more impressed with her style and accomplishments in preparing the horse at each fence. She didn't panic and just galloped them into the ground. OK, not sure what she beat and I'd like to see her out again before the Foxhunters, no entries as yet, but at a general 14s now, this is where my Foxhunters each way punt is heading.

[NewPunter]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Zemsky last years winner is out for the season :(

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Just to say that a horse can win an open point to help gain qualification for the race. For example Chapoturgeon was going to run in a point today but it got called off. For what its worth I dont think hes got a hope in staying 3m2f round Cheltenham.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Just to say that Chapoturgeon is looking likely to run in the same open that he was due to run in on Sunday that has been moved to this Sunday. He needs to win to gain qualification for Cheltenham. I will let you know how he gets on. Cloudy Lane qualified with ease at Ayr today.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Good news for My Flora backers is that she was very impressive in a point this afternoon. The time was good and she had a very good pointer in 2nd place. The distance was 3L but I am told it could have been many more if the jockey had wanted. Its the perfect confidence booster ahead of the race. This years renewal isnt great and looks wide open and in my view she has as good a chance as anything else in the race. Chapoturgeon qualfied for the race this afternoon after a won a 2 runner open at odds of 1/6. Not surprisingly he wasnt tested and we still dont know if he even stays 3m let alone 3m2f. For what its worth I dont think he will.

[NewPunter]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Big antepost fancy Backstage won't be allowed to run, won too much prize money previously

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Yes and even though Gordon Elliott knew for a while he has only just decided to make it public knowledge. I dont know anyone who knew he was allowed to run in the race so its come as a bit of a surprise. I didnt think he would win anyway but it is one less horse to worry about.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase This might be of interest for some of you it is a video of My Flora's point win last time http://www.pointtopoint.co.uk/do/ecco/view_item?listid=6&listcatid=447&listitemid=6042 Entries closed today and 44 have been entered although I have yet to see the list.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase No surprises among the list of 44 although On The Fringe has been entered in a handicap at Navan on Saturday so maybe they are thinking of a different route for him.

[Xtc12]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase keep an eye out for Salsify....... 112P1 BP 8/1 WH 1 Saddlers Storm was 2nd who was 2nd to Seabass P 2 2nd to Footy Facts who has wins against Hardy Eustace and Rigour Back Bob on his CV 1 Newbay Prop was 2nd who was placed at cheltenham in 2009 1 Viking Splash was 2nd

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Salisfy should be fav in my view as he has the best form in the race, however stamina has to be a concern given how he was stopping when he won at Punchestown last season. They are also not certain about bringing him over so you would want to back him NRNB. Also I would be very careful at using the fact hes beaten horses who have had decent form from years ago as to me its meaningless that Footy Facts has beaten Hardy Eustace. Im more interested in what they are doing now that is much more important.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Here is my preview on the race. Hope it helps. Chapoturgeon This ex-festival winner is favourite with bookies at the time of writing. That win in the Jewson Novices’ Handicap three years ago was his last victory until he made a winning Hunter Chase debut at Newbury back in January. As that lack of success suggests he had lost his way but is clearly back in good heart now as he was impressive in beating Cloudy Lane by 16L. I do wonder though if that performance slightly flattered him as 2m 6f on a flat track was his ideal conditions, whereas it was always going to be on the short side for Cloudy Lane (also having his first start for over 600 days) and the other horses in behind would not have a hope were they to run in the Foxhunter. The eight-year-old qualified for the race by winning a two-runner Mens Open and that told us nothing about whether he will stay or not. Not only does he have pretty big stamina concerns, but his jumping hasn’t always been foot perfect (he fell in the 2009 Paddy Power Gold Cup) and his jockey Jack Barber is pretty inexperienced and won’t be able to claim like he did at Newbury. If he stays he has the class to win, but given his price I am more than happy to oppose him given the concerns. Salsify The leading Irish hope after winning the two big Hunter Chases in Ireland last season at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. He was beaten on his return in a point and then pulled up in a Hunter Chase at Thurles. Connections blamed the heavy ground that day and he duly bounced back to impress when winning the major Irish trial for this race at Leopardstown last month. He has a major chance for me, but was all out to win at Punchestown and there has to be a slight concern on whether he will stay the extra furlong here. He is only seven though and could last better this season and could also have more improvement in him. He is a massive danger to all. On The Fringe Has achieved so much already despite only having had seven starts. He has won at the Punchestown Festival and took the Leopardstown trial, before finishing fourth in this contest last year. He was beaten 28L by Zemsky that day though and faded pretty badly on the run in. He was off the track until coming home in third behind Salisfy at Leopardstown last month. I thought it was a reasonable return to the track, but some of his jumping left a lot to be desired and there is a theory that he might still be feeling the effects from his run on fast ground in last year’s race. He is obviously still open to a fair bit of improvement and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise, but for me there are enough doubts over him to oppose. Cloudy Lane Another former Festival winner as Donald McCain Jnr’s charge won the Kim Muir back in 2007. As I mentioned above he made a very solid reappearance in behind Chapoturgeon at Newbury which was his first start since the 2010 Grand National. I was rather surprised by that effort as 2m 6f round Newbury after such a long break was always going to be too sharp from him, but he came out with great credit. He then went up to Ayr where he easily beat solid yardstick Special Portrait despite the race not being run to suit. I actually think he will reverse Newbury form with Chapoturgeon and will back him in a match bet if there are any available on the day. In fact he appears to have more things in favour than most and all the evidence we have seen suggests he still has a decent level of ability. The problem is his price has contracted in recent days because the trainer has nominated him as his best chance of a winner at the Festival. Considering some of the horses he has that is a bold claim, but I do agree he has a massive chance. His price is about right, but he is definitely on my shortlist. My Flora Those of you who have read my Hunter Chase tips so far this season will know I have already recommended a bet on My Flora for the race. Sadly she fell two out at Newbury when she looked held by Chapoturgeon. She was fairly keen that day and was probably done for a bit of toe when coming down. Stamina looks her strong suit given her win at Stratford over 3m 4f back in May when she was hugely impressive. It’s fair to say my confidence was knocked after her Newbury fall, but it was good to see her gain a confidence boosting success at Chaddesley Corbett last month. The question mark about her is how she will act at Cheltenham, but it should be noted she gets a big turnaround in the weights with Chapoturgeon here and of course she is a guaranteed stayer. Trainer Shelia Crow knows what it takes to win this contest having trained Cappa Bleu in 2008 and for me she would still be my number one hope for the race. Monkerty Tunkerty First of all, just in case you didn’t know, this horse is named after a teddy bear one of the contestants (male) took into the Big Brother house a few years back. Anyway back to discussing the horse’s chances and if he were to win it would be a tremendous story given young Jessica Westwood owns, trains and rides the horse. He has seemingly made a fair bit of improvement this season after taking two points before hacking up at Warwick last time. The problem for me that bar Bradley (who probably still needed the run and the track wouldn’t have been ideal) the form isn’t up to much. Also making all in a small field round Warwick doesn’t take too much jockeyship, whereas trying to do the same in a big field at Cheltenham is going to be a lot harder. The fact both horse and jockey are so inexperienced (Jessica can’t claim) is a massive concern for me. I can see him running well but finishing fifth or sixth rather than winning. Roulez Cool It could be a massive hour or so for the Waley-Cohen’s given Long Run will be running the Gold Cup prior to Roulez Cool possibly lining up here. I say possibly because the horse has been described as being 50/50 for the race and we haven’t seen him for nearly two years. He was brought down in the 2010 running when he was beaten, but to be fair he probably wasn’t right and ended up winning the final one of the big three Hunter Chase’s at Stratford. I think he is good enough to win a Foxhunter, but given the long lay-off I think if he runs it will be more about a stepping stone towards targets later in the season rather than winning. Barbers Shop The Queen’s horse has the highest BHA rating of those in the race and was a pretty classy animal back in 2008/09. He made his first start since the 2010 Hennessy at Fakenham last month when he hacked up from Eleazar (didn’t handle the track), but then only just won at Fontwell to qualify for the race. The Fontwell effort told me that he still looks a non-stayer at this trip round Cheltenham and although Merry Vic is a useful horse the form is not good enough to win a Foxhunter. I would be pretty surprised if we were to have a Royal victor. Merchant Royal Hunter Chases would not be the first thing you would think of when it comes to top trainer Dermot Weld, but he has an interesting contender heading to Cheltenham this year for the Foxhunter. He has only had seven starts so is unexposed and looks to be on the upgrade. He was pulled up at Punchestown behind Salsify last season, but has won three Hunter Chases since then, including the Thurles race which Salsify pulled up in last time. Given he was all out to win that day there has to be a slight stamina doubt, but it’s hard to say how good he is and given the trainer a bold showing would not surprise. According To John The second Richard Barber trained horse in the field and this has had a great season so far, having won three point to points, having lost his way badly under rules when he was last seen in the 2010 Scottish National. He was due to have a soft-palate operation prior to this race as has been making a noise in his races this season. It will be interesting to see if that brings about any improvement because to me, although his pointing form this year is solid, it is a little below the standard required to a Foxhunter and I am happy to pass him over. Boxer Georg Second to Baby Run at Aintree last season, but apart from that hasn’t really looked up to this sort of class. He did beat Zardsky (a winner since and also entered) to win a Maiden Hunter Chase last time but I would be more interested in Willie Mullins’ runner back at Aintree than I am here. Enter Paradise It is a slight surprise to see him entered and also to see him so short in the betting. Now with Charlie Mann he won a novice chase at Fakenham last time but the race fell to pieces as neither he, nor the other main contender Like Minded, jumped well. Not only that but My Flora beat him very easily last year at Stratford and it is hard to see him reversing form. Zardsky As I said above, he was beaten by Boxer Georg before going on to better a useful enough field at Fairyhouse. He is only six and looks to be improving and I would fancy him to finish in front of Boxer Georg if he were to run, although Aintree was being touted as the favoured route and this might come too soon in his career. Rowdy Rampage The Paul Nicholls trained runner is qualified on his Irish point successes from last season and has only had one start for Nicholls when winning a handicap chase at Worcester back in August. He probably still has improvement in him but I think the fact the trainer put up Chapoturgeon as his bet of the meeting (he part owns the horse) tells you all you need to know about the chances of this. Outsiders We saw a shock in the race last year with Zemsky winning at 33-1 and to be honest it wouldn’t surprise if we had a big priced winner again this year given the wide open feel to the race. The two I think can run well at big odds are Eleazar and Bradley. I have already recommended a small each-way bet on Eleazar for the race and although he was easily beaten by Barbers Shop at Fakenham, I still think he is capable of running a massive race. The race he won at Fakenham last season was shockingly bad and the track doesn’t really suit, so I fully expect him to run much better at Cheltenham. I was impressed with his win over Dante’s Storm at Uttoxeter and for me he was a rather unlucky second to Southwestern at Stratford. The slight concern is he gets too far back in his races, but he will be staying on at the death and if they go a good gallop up front (as they usually do) he will be flying past beaten horses. Whether that will see him home in front I am not sure but I can see him hitting the frame. Bradley has very solid course form having won at the hunter chase meeting in 2010. Sadly he got injured after that and wasn’t seen again until finishing fifth behind My Flora at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. That was a promising effort as was his 2nd at Warwick to Monkerty Tunkerty where he was probably done for a bit of toe and still lacking match practice. He then went on to win the Royal Artillery at Sandown where he showed that stamina is his thing. Again maybe he won’t be quite good enough to win, but given he has proven he handles the track and stays all day there are a lot worse 33/1 shots you could back. Summary As you can see there are reasons for and against most of the runners, so for me it’s a case of backing those that have the fewest questions marks against them. My Flora has been my long term pick for the race and I still think she is progressive so I am not going to desert her. Cloudy Lane for me is the main danger as he has a lot in his favour and I think he still retains a fair bit of his old ability. In addition Eleazar and Bradley look the pick of the outsiders so hopefully the winner will come from one of those four.

[billvernon]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Great write up - I liked My Flora as well for this and was a bit peeved to see her run when she fell she looked held - It is good to see she is back to winning ways and she is a stayer - The only doubt I have is after watching your video of her last race - I noted that she seems to brush a hell of a lot of those fences and seems a bit low when jumping them .That doubt along with her fall and the Cheltenham undulations - tempers my exuberance regarding her chances. the word on the street is for Salsify and e/w on Cloudy Lane who has proven form at Cheltenham and is a good horse.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Yes it was unusual to see her brush through those fences as shes never done it before. The unknown with her as you point out is the undulations of Cheltenham so we will just have to see how she copes, but for me its less of a worry than Chapoturgeon staying for example. I can see why people are tipping up Salsify but at the same I dont think they have looked at his Punchestown win where you would have issues about him staying the trip at Cheltenham. I think people have just gone oh he won at Punchestown without actually thinking about how he did it. Having said that if I was to add a 5th horse to the shortlist it would probably be him. Glad you like the write-up as well.

[Bogside]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase I hate this race personally. Not just this year - I just don't like the amateur nature of it and I think of it as the race they put on to give the jockeys a break after the Gold Cup. But a friend of mine has had a tip for Description (25/1). Just thought I'd pass it along (done a fiver e/w myself as I'd have backed something anyway to give myself a small interest and getting a tip on this kind of race saves me the time from finding one myself).

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Thats a little harsh Bogside especially as the Gold Cup winning jockey could be riding in this year's race. It is the amateur Gold Cup and a massive race in its own right. As for Description he fell in very testing conditions at Haydock last time and his jumping round Cheltenham is a concern. He will like the better ground though and has a good trainer in Alan Hill.

[Bogside]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase I know the race is great for the amateurs, and is there version of the Gold Cup. A mate of mine loves it and thinks there should be more racing like this. It's just not for me. I want to watch Manchester United, not Stockport County. I recognise the merits and I can understand why some people love it. I think they should swap it with a race from earlier in the week. I'm probably just a snob ;)

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase See I would rather watch Stockport than Manchester United lol. Hunter chases are one of the best betting mediums out there as far as I am concerned. Also better horses will run in this race than some of the others next week.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Monkerty Tunkerty misses the race with a bruised foot.

[Darran]

Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Didnt quite manage to find the winner but My Flora ran a great race and if you had backed each/way today you would have got paid out as most bookies paid out on 4th. Having just re-read what I said about the winner I am kicking myself a bit for not backing him.