Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

[BillyHills]

.

[bowles10]

Re: Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase Been looking closely at Faasel for this race. Often targeted for the festival, Fassel has a record of :; 2005 Triumph Hurdle 2nd 2006 Champion Hurdle 8th 2007 Arkle 4th 2010 Kim Muir 2nd 2011 Kim Muir 2nd Not a bad record at the festival under Nicky Richards and DAvid Pipe. Warmed up nicely winning a vets chase last week off 11st 8lb at Doncaster over 3m. Despite running at Cheltenham 10 times, has never won at the course but 4th or better on 6 occasions including 4 festivals as above it isnt a massive price but wlll be on my shortlist

[beaker1]

Re: Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE The weakest handicap at the Festival in terms of strong trends and that is likely to be even more the case this year following its upgrade from a 0-140 contest to 0-145 for the first time as the ratings stats were the strongest of the few positive trends but I don’t think we can trust them now given this change. Nicky Henderson (Be There In Five), Donald McCain (unrepresented this year) and Ferdy Murphy (The Hollinwell) have the best recent record with three, two and two winners respectively. Jonjo O’Neill (1 place from his last 18 runners) runs Sunnyhillboy and Nigel Twiston-Davies (last 13 runners since 1995 finished unplaced) runs Frontier Spirit. Surprisingly for a handicap, just four of the last 32 winners were aged seven or younger as younger horses are usually better-handicapped horses which puts me off Up The Beat, Midnight Appeal, Brackloon High and Gurtacrue and this has also not been a race for the Irish failing to register a victory since Greasepaint back in 1983 which is another negative for Up The Beat as well as Becauseicouldntsee, Start Me Up, Your Busy and Adams Island. Best concentrate on horses in their prime, eight and nine-year-olds, who have won 14 of the last 18 renewals from less than 50% representation. This is also one of the few races at the Festival where a big recent run last time out is far from a must, six of the last nine winners finished unplaced on their latest outing. Being an amateur-riders’ race, horsemanship is important and six of the last seven winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs so experience in the saddle certainly does count in this handicap SHORTLIST THE HOLLINWELL SUMMERY JUSTICE BENBANE HEAD TIME FOR SPRING SONA SASTA CONCLUSION Nine horses to choose from to survive the negative trends is too many so with a little reluctance I have had to leave off Mostly Bob as he is ridden by a 7lbs claimer and beat a load of veterans last time out, Be There In Five as he is ridden by a 5lbs claimer and has shown zip in two starts this season and Fredo and piraya also have claimers on board whereas top amateurs tend to win this race. Ferdy Murphy has won this race twice and THE HOLLINWELL could easily make it three. The winner of Jumpers Bumper last time out showed him in to be in good form (did well to win one of those being a staying chaser) and his second in the Rehearsal Chase earlier in the season had Kim Muir written all over it. SUMMERY JUSTICE has a former professional in the saddle which can not be a bad thing. He is not easy to train judged by two runs in two years but his only run (and win) last season has been working out very well and his trainer (Venetia Williams) is particularly cute at laying one out for a Festival handicap. SONA SASTA is interesting off near bottom weight in first-time blinkers. He made much of the running in last season’s NH Chase over 4m but maybe didn’t stay so, back to 3m1½f here and representing the Pipe yard that love the Festival handicaps, he is a major player. BENBANE HEAD stays very well and this could be his kind of race. An impressive course winner as a novice hurdler, his last run over hurdles smacked as getting him ready for this handicap chase and he could be big each-way value. TIME FOR SPRING completes the short list ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen. He ran poorly last time but the Longsdon yard were out of sorts at the time but he is a lightly-raced horse at the right end of the weights and has been trained with this race in mind all season.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 4.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Summery Justice @ 20/1 (Hills) Another extremely tricky race to work out, but Venetia Williams' 8yo looks a really interesting runner to me in this event for amateur riders. Starting off on that point, the winner of this race is typically ridden by a relatively experienced pilot, who doesn't claim any weight. My selection ticks that box here with Will Biddick taking the ride - a jockey who has ridden around here 20 times in the past. This horse is really lightly-raced, having run just eight times in over three years, but has shown plenty of ability when he has stepped foot on the racecourse. He won his third start over hurdles at Taunton, before finishing midfield in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle race at Sandown worth £39k. He was off the track for a while after this effort, but it didn't stop him winning on his chasing debut when he returned. He got up late to win by a neck from a now 139-rated rival, with the pair clear. For whatever reason, he was pulled up next time, but again showed a liking for running fresh when stamping his authority over a pretty competitive handicap field over 3 miles at Bangor on testing ground. He showed how well he stays on this occasion, running out an 8-length victor off a mark of 126. The 2nd and 3rd franked the form with wins next time out, so a mark of 134 tomorrow looks pretty fair on what Summery Justice has achieved on the track so far - especially as there could still be more to come. He couldn't quite repeat the same feat after a whole calendar year off the racecourse at Haydock in November, but still ran with plenty of credit in the mud over three miles in a good contest. The first three home were rated in the early 140s, with Cappa Bleu coming out on top. Both that horse and the runner-up franked the form since, as has the horse who finished 6l behind my selection - winning a good handicap recently. Summery Justice perhaps just didn't have the legs to last home on the heavy ground after so long off the track, especially in a hot race. He may still be best seen fresh, though, and the four-month absence looks capable of suiting him ahead of this challenge. He should be fresh, but not desperately in need of the run, and both the stamina test and his mark look in his favour. The Venetia Williams' yard are also in better form than they were when this one ran at Haydock (6-61 in November, 8-41 in March so far), so that is another possible reason for the flatter effort. This is another horse with plenty going for him I think, but yet again, this is a thoroughly competitive race. His weight looks fair, conditions should suit, and his jockey is one of the better riders in the race, however, so a big run looks highly possible.

[higgybaby]

Re: Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase Brackloon High. Dickie Johnson wanted Chance to enter him into the William Chase Trophy on Tuesday so he could ride him but Chance was worried he wouldn't make the cut. He's a very progressive horse and Chance is no fool. Happy with my 28/1 e/w bet last week.

[Aykay1]

Re: Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 3 bets for me: Becauseicouldntsee @ 12/1 skybet for me. Has Cheltenham form having finished 2nd over 4miles here a couplke of years ago and looks on a decent mark off 140. Ran a decent prep over hurdles last time out beaten a couple of lengths by Galileos Choice. Sona Sasta @ 23.0 been highly tried over longer distances and will appreicate the drop in trip here. Would like a bit of rain i think but looks on a very good mark based on his 2nd behind Le Beau Bai. Faasel @ 17.0 - nicked this one off Bowles ;) But essentially has been beaten into 2nd by some very well handicapped horses and in that sense is a bit unlucky not to be a previous Festival winner. There could be another blot on the handicap but i dont see a reason why he cant compete here.