Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

[BillyHills]

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[beaker1]

Re: Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase BYRNE GROUP PLATE Unquestionably the hardest race at the Festival to nail the winner of in recent seasons, which may be partly down to the fact that the Byrne Group Plate has attracted the most lowest-rated horses of all the handicap chases on the park course in the last six years, Holmwood Legend’s victory at 25/1 last season extended the winning sequence of double-figure odds winners to 11. Favourites are faring better than of late with the last two both placing unlike the previous eight. Many will view Cheltenham’s two big 2½m handicap chases run before Christmas, the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 December Gold Cup, as key guides but only one Byrne Group Plate winner took part in either of those two valuable handicaps chases since 1984 which is against Divers, Finger Onthe Pulse, Holmwood Legend and Fine Parchment (contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup) and Mad Moose, Salut Flo, Matuhi and Divers again (contested the December Gold Cup). As French-breds have won six of the last 12 runnings from no way near 50% representation, that could be a good angle and their representatives are Tartak, Giorgio Quercus, Rebel De Maquis, Hector’s Choice, Notus De La Tour, Divers and Salut Flo though, annoyingly, they all fail on other stats. 15 of the last 17 winners have carried no more than 11st including the1-2-3for the last three years so on that basis the top ten in the weights would be unusual winners. You may also want to give gloss over the Irish challenge of Finger Onthe Pulse and Glam Gerry given that they have mustered just one winner since 1951. Age hasn’t been a serious factor as Mister McGoldrick won as an 11-year-old four years ago as did Terao and Elfast not all that long ago and there was also victories fortwo ten-year-olds in fairly recent times. That said, 12 of the last 13 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences so on that basis I am against Tartak, Finger Onthe Pulse, Holmwood Legend, Fine Parchment, Life Of A Luso and Kilcrea Asla. Despite the big-priced winners, only two of the last 20 winners finished outside of the top four last time out which is a negative for Schindlers Gold, Charingworth, Gibarry and Radetsky March of those not already with a statistical negative to their name. Look out for Nicky Henderson (Giorgio Quercus and Jack The Giant) who has trained four winners though both have it to do on weight stats and Venetia Williams (Niceonefrankie) who enters this season’s race with a very impressive haul of two wins and five places from 12 runners. Paul Nicholls (Crack Away Jack and Rebel De Maquis), on the other hand, is 0-21 with just two placing. SHORTLIST NICEONEFRANKIE GANSEY THE COCKNEY MACKEM (GIORGIO QUERCUS) (HECTOR’S CHOICE) CONCLUSION Venetia Williams has a terrific record in this race and NICEONEFRANKIE has scraped in by the skin of his teeth after picking up a penalty for winning at Newbury 13 days ago. Last year’s winner did likewise with a Sandown victory five days earlier. He survives the negative trends so would be the main trends pick given his trainer has won this race twice recently including recording a 1-2. Sue Smith has also won this race recently and GANSEY makes some appeal surviving all the negative trends. He ran well for a long way in this race last year and he could be a big priced outsider to consider for each-way purposes in a race which throws up big priced winners. THE COCKNEY MACKEM is certainly consistent so is another that appeals from an each-way perspective. Six second places in 11 starts could worry some that he is a weak finisher but he has been running against decent sorts and recording good times and will love decent ground so dismiss him at your peril from running another big race. No others survive all the negative trends but I include GIORGIO QUERCUS as he is a French-bred hailing from a yard with four wins in the race so he would be the strongest of the rest. HECTOR’S CHOICE also only falls down on carrying over 11st but he is bang in form, a French-bred and his trainer has a good record in this race including winning it with Super Coin and this has been his Festival aim for a long time.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win The Cockney Mackem @ 22/1 (VC) These races tend to be a nightmare for punters, but I hope I can get a big priced fancy home in Nigel Twiston-Davies' The Cockney Mackem here. This horse has proven a bit frustrating having won just once from 11 starts, yet has been in the first 3 on 9 occasions - with the other two being in races he has fallen or unseated rider in. In some ways, it's good to have a consistent animal to be on the side of, but he'll have to find an extra gear to get his head in front you feel. However, this one has attracted some early support in the market, and he's off a low weight here, something which hasn't been a detriment to horses in the race in previous years. Plenty of his form is pretty solid, and I get the feeling that a festival field will bring the best out in him, so long as he jumps okay. He doesn't have a serious turn of foot, so coming off a good gallop in a big field should suit him here. I don't think he's had the races run to suit him in his chasing career to date, but his latest two efforts have been encouraging when sent up in trip. Two starts ago, he finished well over 2m3f at Taunton to get within 3/4l of Micheal Flips. The front two were 12 lengths clear of the rest, and Andrew Turnell's high-class runner franked the form with a good effort in the Scilly Isles chase at Newbury next time out. That race has seen Our Mick come out and frank the form this week already, so the Taunton run appears a solid effort from my selection. Last time out The Cockney Mackem was tried over 3 miles at Doncaster. Again he finished in 2nd behind a nice type, and closed to within a length at 4 out before edging further and further away over the final three flights to go down by 5 lengths. He shaped that a trip inbetween Taunton and Doncaster would suit, and he gets just that here over 2m5f. I think that will suit him perfectly, and a big run looks in store. He had a tough task to win that day at the weights, so probably ran near enough as well as could be expected. That run also came in February, when the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard were out of form on the whole, registering 3-50. His horses are running better now and I think another sound run looks on the cards so long as this horse's jumping holds up. The conditions look certain to suit, and I'm hopeful he'll go well.

[bowles10]

Re: Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Fine Parchment was4th LTO in the Greatwood Gold Cup hcap chase at Newbury behind Aeriel, which can be judged as a consistent piece of form. Has won off 130 before and runs off 3lb higher than that today which is essentially the day the trainer would have aimed for. It has a course win beating Holmwood legend who won this last year, it is again much better off with horse and Holmwood is half the price of Fine PArchment. Noel Fehily is an able jockey and has one on the board already at the festival. In opposition, Salut Flo is a worthy favourite but is very lightly raced and its the inexperience i would be concerned with. Off 137 could be a lenient mark but still has it to prove in a battle. Niceonefrankie is a ridiculous price now considering it has been winning smaller races and wont have faced anything like this before. Venetia knows it is fit and has to run it but its not an 8/1 chance for me. Charingworth would have won LTO off a mark of 126 having tipped up at the last at Ayr and a lot of the racinhg fraternity said Lucy Alexander would ride a cheltenham winner, this could be the one, as with the 5lb claim she gets, the horse runs off 127 and therefore should be respected. Its a race Ferdy hasnt won yet but he normally walks away with something from the festival. Mowgli77 told me to have a second look at this and i definitely agree it has a great chance. Bets Fine Parchment 0.5pts win 32.0 Betfair Charingworth 0.5pts win 28.0 Betfair

[Aykay1]

Re: Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase I know that Tony McCoy phoned the owners to ask to ride Divers at the Festival, which is enough of a positive for me. Won at the festivgal last year and remains on a decent mark. Ferdy Murphy likes a Cheltenham handicap. 7/1 widely available