NFL: Wildcard Weekend

[blackcrow]

Saturday January 7th (3) Houston - Cincinnati (6). Houston -3 and total at 39 (3) New Orleans - Detroit (6). NO -10.5 and total at 58.5 Sunday January 8th (4) NY Giants - (5) Atlanta. NYG -3 and total at 49. (4) Denver - (5) Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh -9 and total at 34.5

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Falcons @ 2.30 Sportsbet The Falcons are a much more balanced team and I think this will give them the edge this weekend. The Giants have trouble running the football and Eli is very eratic and just as liable to throw 3 picks as he is 3 scores. The Giants pass rush is decent but the secondary is average and the Falcons will run the ball a lot better than Dallas did last week. Lions @ 5.90 Sportsbet I believe the Lions are the big darkhorse of this year's playoffs and at these odds I think they represent a shade of value. Despite the power New Orleans have, particularly with Brees, the Lions are almost as strong with Stafford, Megatron and Pettigrew playing lights out. I see turnovers being key to this game and despite his record setting ways, Brees has thrown a few picks lately. He had 2 against Atlanta and should have been picked off a third time. Once more, the Lions defense makes bigger plays than the Saints D, and I think this could be crucial. The Lions D had 2 touchdowns in games against Dallas, Minnesota and Denver this year, whereas the Saints D only has a couple of TDs for the season. In a shootout game where turnovers will be key, I'll happily take the team at these odds. Steelers to win by 1-6pts @ 5.50 Bet365 Though the Steelers have a stronger team they have struggled on offense of late and I think this will be closer than a lot of people predict. Roethlisberger is still limited by his ankle injury and Mendenhall is now on IR. Redman isn't much of a step back in terms of what he offers on his carries, except for one key aspect - he fumbles more. Mendenhall had just one for the season, whereas Redman had two last game. Futhermore, the Broncos have made the playoffs on the back of their defense, and if that D plays like it did during that 6 game winning streak then this will be a low scoring game. Denver also have an advantage on special teams, with Prater and Colquit a much better kicking duo than Suisham and Kapinos. It still baffles me that the Steelers persist with Suisham, who is very unclutch and makes far too many key misses IMO. At the end of the day, I think the Steelers fierce D will contain Tebow quite easily, but the offense will still struggle. Add Denver's special team advantage and the home ground and I think Denver will be more competitive than the odds suggest, but as I believe the Steelers still win, I think this small margin win bet is the right play.

[danj2202]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend I have to be on the Saints -10.5 against the Lions. Detroit would have missed out to the Bears and wouldnt even be here if Cutler and Forte had not got hurt, the last 5 games of the season Detroit played like a team doing anything they could to avoid winning and they lack the discipline as a team. The Lions have not made the playoffs since I think 1999 and the only player on the squad then is the kicker Hanson, in the playoffs you have to take a team that is tried and tested with the intensity of playoff football. Stafford will also be making his debut in the playoffs and the numbers for QBs starting their first playoff games are not good, while I do not have the exact number I believe something like 70% end in defeat, though granted Flacco and Sanchez have helped buck this trend in recent years. Detroit cannot run the ball and henceforth are totally one dimensional and they lack any form of secondary, this game will be much like last years Green Bay v Atlanta game, the Saints will spread the field going 4 and 5 wide and there is no chance at all Detroit can cover them all. Finally the Saints this year are 8-0 in the dome and have averaged over 40 ppg while conceding less than 20, and they beat Detroit just 5 weeks ago by 14 in this stadium. Looks like max bet stuff to me. New Orleans would be rightful favourites for the Superbowl if it wasnt for those damn packers Good Luck all

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Houston -6.5 @ 2.44 centrebet Like Houston here even if they go with Yates or Delhomme at QB, as I like their running game with Foster and Tate, while the return of Johnson should also help with the passing game. Cincinnati struggled to run the ball this year while the passing game is on par with Houston's. Though both teams have good defences, Houston do have a big edge in running the ball, and can see them being the difference here New Orleans -13.5 @ 2.29 centrebet Brees has been brilliant at home, and the Saints have been hard to stop, scoring at least 27 points in each of their 8 home games, while scoring 45+ in 3 of their last 4 home games, and this Detroit secondary is not that good, as they allowed Green Bay's second string QB Wynn to pass all over them, and they could not stop NO last month, as they passed for 342 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, NO have been very good at home, allowing no more than 24 points in each of their 8 games at home, while allowing 17 points or less in 6 of these games. Detroit have a good QB (Stafford), WR (Johnson) and TE (Pettigrew) to hurt NO's secondary, but without an effective running game, then they will be relying on passing the ball, in a very noisy and intimidating atmosphere. Like the Saints to win this one well, as they beat them 31-17 at home last month, even though Stafford passed for 408 yards and a TD, that was still not good enough to win them the game, or even keep it close. Hard to see them then doing well in the dome in the playoffs Atlanta @ 2.42 pinnacle Both teams have good passers of the ball, and do give up yards via the pass, but where Atlanta has the edge is in the run game, as they are much better at running the ball, as well as stopping the run. This will make the Giants more one dimensional and relying on Manning to win them the game, where he can be very inconsistent, while the much more balanced Atlanta offence, has more options to get the ball moving downfield. Like the Falcons to do the job here as not that confident in this NY side to get it going, especially if they cannot run the ball. Denver +7.5 @ 2.01 centrebet Hard to see this Pittsburgh side doing much on offence consaidering that their RB Mendenhall is out , while Big Ben is hobbling around with a sore ankle. Denver will look to blitz and blitz often as their OL has its issues, and though this Denver defence is not that flash, being at home, and at altitude, then it is going to be difficult for the Steelers to get their game going. While Denver on offence is also going to find it difficult to move forward, especially with this very good Pittsburgh defence, their run game is very good, and eventually expect the regular running of the ball to wear down this Steelers defence. Like the Broncos to keep this close, and though they may not win, hard to see them getting blown out too.

[cv1000]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend The 2nd poster can't be serious saying that there is value in Detroits price against the Saints? They could be 50/1 and it still wouldn't be value. How can you think a defense that gave up 480 yards and 6TDs to MATT FLYNN can stand any chance against the best all round offense in the league, at the Dome? Nope, this will be an absolute blowout. Saints to win big!

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Houston -3 @1.83 with Coral First ever playoff game for the Texans and it's at home. The Texans have been sleep walking tne past couple of weeks with a little AFC south hangover. At home where they've lost really 2 games all season one to tne Raiders the week of Al Davis' passing and to the Panthers the week after they clinched vs the division. The Bengals have slumped their way to the post season and they've done by beating the Browns x2, Colts, Bills, Rams, Seahawks, Cards, Jags and Titans. Not a very impressive body of work. The Texans beat these Bengals 20-19 in Cincy despite losing the turn over battle 4-2, and the much maligned Yates threw for 300 yds. Andre Johnson is back and the Bengals don't have Leon Hall to cover him and on the flip side former Bengal Johnathan Joseph should limit AJ Green. The emotion in Houston coupled with better offensive talent in Foster, and Johnson, along with Wade Phillips' defense really favor the Texans to get the job done here.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend I think the Lions can give the Saints problems. The best way to limit Brees is pushing the pocket in his face, remember he's only 6 ft, teams have had success and batting balls down at the line of scrimmage on him. The Lions almost came back from down 24-7 in the Superdome. With that being said the Saints are obliterating teams at home, no bet for me.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Giants -3 Feel the Falcons are ok but they struggle vs teams that can pass and they can't cover Nicks and Cruz, they've beat on bad teams like the Bucs and Jags but haven't proven much vs quakity opponents. Unless Julio Jones goes off or Eli has one of those games the Giants should win somewhat comfortably.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend

The 2nd poster can't be serious saying that there is value in Detroits price against the Saints? They could be 50/1 and it still wouldn't be value. How can you think a defense that gave up 480 yards and 6TDs to MATT FLYNN can stand any chance against the best all round offense in the league, at the Dome? Nope, this will be an absolute blowout. Saints to win big!

So? See, despite last week being Flynn, realistically, Brees and NO simply aren't going to do much (any?) better. It's just how the game works. You get the ball so many times, you score or you don't. [NO have topped 50 just one time all season...Brees over 400+ just twice] The thing that you shouldn't forget about last week...is that Detroit scored 41 themselves. ;) ...and have av'd 34+ ppg in the last 4 games, all against better D's than NO. Not so sure they'll win, but 10 looks like a lot of points to me...

[cv1000]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend They gave up 6 touchdowns to Matt Flynn and the New Orleans offense is the best in the league. They were allowed to score 5 TD's because the Packers Defense is the second worst in the league. The Saints have a better offense and a better defense than the Packers and simply don't lose at the Dome. Like I said, Detroit have zero chance so no there is zero value in betting for them to win.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Sounds like a few people in the EPL forum last week with Man U v. Blackburn... ...except this one is far more likely. ;)

[totse]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend

Event	New Orleans Saints - Detroit Lions
Selection	under 49.5
Strength	10/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 3.60
Reasoning	This sure will be David and Goliat battle because New Orleans finished unbeaten at home 8-0 record. The Saints managed to score over 40 points in five of eight home games but today they will face tough rival who also want to reach next stage. Detroit Lions lost three of last four games, but they were already secured the playoff spot. A month ago these two played in New Orleans when the host team win 31-17. Detroit is one of teams who stopped Saints reaching the 40 point line at home. I think this will be tough and roof playoff game. The Lions should stop New Orleans offense if they want to clinch the win. Only one team scored more than 17 points when visited New Orleans in past two months that was Tampa Bay 24 points. I don't underestimate Lions offense but I can't see them scoring more than two touchdowns. If they have a day to stop the Saints offense scoring more than 30 this game goes under 49.5 points.

[Crouch Potato]

I wouldn't bother to try and talk any logic to him Taza. One look at his other posts and you can tell he's nothing but an arrogant asshole.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Oh yeah, clear as a bell. :ok May have been a much different result had some stupid ref (and don't even get me started about rules v. video :wall ) not blown his whistle and Det were 21-7 up as they absolutely should have been. :\ [Also a bit pointless to point out that Brees actually had a slightly worse day than Flynn I know...]

[trips]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Got to give credit to the Saints coach for some gutsy calls,going for a couple of 4th downs, 4th and 2 in the 3 rd quarter on there own 38 yrd winning by 10 or 17 and they still go for it,cant think of any team who would do that, just don't want to give the ball back. could of been a lot closer if the lions defender had not let a certain interception threw his hands in the 3rd, Saints score.ions forced to throw deep, Saints intercept and score again,game over. see the early betting have the Saints as 1/2 fav away to San Fran next week,i dont think whos playing who has been decided yet but the 49rs away is going to be a lot tougher.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend

Got to give credit to the Saints coach for some gutsy calls,going for a couple of 4th downs, 4th and 2 in the 3 rd quarter on there own 38 yrd winning by 10 or 17 and they still go for it,cant think of any team who would do that, just don't want to give the ball back. could of been a lot closer if the lions defender had not let a certain interception threw his hands in the 3rd, Saints score.ions forced to throw deep, Saints intercept and score again,game over. see the early betting have the Saints as 1/2 fav away to San Fran next week,i dont think whos playing who has been decided yet but the 49rs away is going to be a lot tougher.

Agreed. The Lions were so bad on 3rd down those 4th and short calls were really very smart decisions by Peyton. That guy has balls and strategic nous. Having backed the Lions though I really couldn't have asked for too much more. Brees threw a couple of bad balls and the Lions forced a couple of turnovers. A few calls not going the right way but still showed why they offered a shade of value IMO. As for the SF v NO game, SF as the 2nd seed automatically play the highest remaining seed next week, which will be NO given they were the 3 seed and the winner of Atl/NYG will be the 4th or 5th.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Onwards... (and nice work bc on a good day. :ok) Atlanta @ NYG under 47.5 Happy with the nice number here. Falcons are being a bit overhyped due to 33 big scores in their last 4...all against injury riddled teams who had packed up and gone home....but they are playing some very solid D. They've allowed over 21 offensive points to only NO since GB did it in week 5!...and only given up 17+ offensive points to NO and Carolina. Looks very much like a 23-17 game either way to me... Eli OVER 294.5 (1.87 @ Sportsbet) ...but I do think Eli will get his yards v. a pretty ordinary Falcons pass D, who's numbers are actually better than they should be due to playing 5 games v. teams 22nd or worse at throwing the ball. NYG rank 5th for passing yards...and v. teams in the top 10 for passing Atl have given up 307, 322, 396, 312, 314...with just a 183 to Stafford to hang their hat on. Eli has thrown for 311, 321, 346, 400 v. teams 17th or worse (Atl 20th)...and 292 v. Buff who are 19th. Tebow under 149.5 (1.90 @ Lads) ...however, due to a ridiculously low limit there are a couple of other options available around the mark... Steelers have the best pass D in the league...both total yards and y/pass (comfortably). He's gone over this number 6 times...to teams who are all 19th or worse for pass yards allowed. Against teams in the top 10 v. the pass he's thrown for 69, 104, 143 (inc. OT) and 60. Funny things might happen in this game...but this would be funniest of the lot! :unsure Good luck guys. :cheers EDIT: As for next week, I'll be the over 47 for sure @ SF. They've played some donkeys at home.

[trips]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend

As for the SF v NO game, SF as the 2nd seed automatically play the highest remaining seed next week, which will be NO given they were the 3 seed and the winner of Atl/NYG will be the 4th or 5th.

Thanks Crouch,Sunday morning after a late night,never checked:ok first thought is cant have the Saints at 1/2 fav away to 49rs,been impressed with the 49rs defence,love the Saints and Breese is brilliant but can see the 49rs giving him a hard time and maybe a few interceptions, but i suppose its back to this weeks games for now.:)

[danj2202]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend well, I cant be touching the Steelers on a line that big and 1/4 is a little short for a money line punt and the other game is almost a coin flip depending which Giants team turn up and as I have punted NYG for the superbowl outright I think today is a no bet for me. Good Luck to all who play today

[Hermit]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Just checked the stats at HT for the Giants/Falcons and they are saying only 2 sacks so what the hell was the safety then if it wasn't a sack. QB caught in end zone with ball is a sack right? Done over 4.5 sacks at 11/10 which is why I am not happy:@

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend

Just checked the stats at HT for the Giants/Falcons and they are saying only 2 sacks so what the hell was the safety then if it wasn't a sack. QB caught in end zone with ball is a sack right? Done over 4.5 sacks at 11/10 which is why I am not happy:@

He threw it away before he was sacked. It was a technical safety for intentional grounding. Although he'd moved just outside the hash his throw didn't reach the line of scrimmage :ok

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend

Oh yeah, clear as a bell. :ok May have been a much different result had some stupid ref (and don't even get me started about rules v. video :wall ) not blown his whistle and Det were 21-7 up as they absolutely should have been. :\ [Also a bit pointless to point out that Brees actually had a slightly worse day than Flynn I know...]

Huge play! Don't know why the play was blown dead, same with that play in the Steeler/Bronco game where it was ruled incomplete and blown dead. Lions got screwed there. With 14 point lead that game is different. There was also an obvious intentional grounding where the Saints drive continued and led to the FG before half. But once the Saints got up two scores the Lions D had to take chances and Brees ate them up.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Houston -6.5 @ 2.44 :D New Orleans -13.5 @ 2.29 :D Atlanta @ 2.42 :( Denver +7.5 @ 2.01 :D Playoff record: 3-1 (+2.74) Unlucky yesterday TD with not getting the treble. Who would have thought that Tebow could get that many yards, and against that Pittsbugh secondary :eek

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Wildcard Weekend Why would you say that? The bigger the game does not equate to a bigger bet. Value on futures is long gone for the most part, and you have usually sharp lines when there's few games left.