MPLouis Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December Anyone know the odds for plus 12 corners at last evening's game Swansea v QPR? You mean 12 corners or more? I don't know the answer, but I think the average number of corners in the Premier League is around 10-11, so I think the odds for 'over 11 corners' would have been somewhere around 2.3 There were 16 corners in the game (Swansea 5, QPR 11), so this bet would have won - http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/12/27/england/premier-league/swansea-city-afc/queens-park-rangers-fc/1117217/ I think the pattern of the game was that Swansea controlled the first half and lead at half time, and QPR controlled the second half, attacking with a lot of pace and width, and winning a lot of corners. (Unfortunately, it's hard to predict the pattern of a game, and so it's usually difficult to predict the number of corners in a game.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December Crazy results & bookies probably loving the general misfortune for the majority of us! I had a fair amount of money on over 2.5 goals in Arsenal/Wolves & Norwich/Spurs double. Tbh,I was a bit relieved the latter didn't oblige in the end. When Arsenal went ahead after 4 mins,& when Wolves levelled after 38mins,there wasn't a doubt in my mind that it wouldn't produce another goal etc. Hoping to claw back my losses tonight in SPL :( Still, usually the most important is the last game, since there will always be people trying to chase their losses. I think thats why the odds on spurs shortened so dramatically as the weekend progressed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December hmmm, not sure I agree with the bit about betting in play. If you are a serious punter you should be aware of how the odds work, and what factors make them increase or decrease, and by what amount when. You don't have to sit there working out whether something is value after the event. It should be a bit more pro-active than that. If for example the starting odds for a game were 2.30 3.40 and 3.80, a serious punter would understand which way the odds are likely to move if a goal is scored either way, or a sending off occurs, etc. In the example listed above both sides have been priced up fairly equal with a slight advantage given to the home side. If a goal was scored by the away side first, you'd probably see their odds shoot down to evens or something. It's understanding how various factors during the course of a game can effect the movement the odds take. Goals Over/Under are exactly the same. There are stats somewhere on the amount of games that go over 2.5 and under 2.5 after a 0-0 at HT, or after two goals are scored in the first half. It really is just understanding events and circumstances, and how they effect the movement in odds. Any serious punter should first and foremost gain an understanding of odds and how the market works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December Chelsea - Fulham under 2.5 @ 2.23 :D Bolton - Newcastle over 2.5 @ 1.85 :( Liverpool -2 (EH) @ 2.65 Another game of missed chances by the home side Man Utd - Wigan under 2.5 @ 2.75 :( Sunderland - Everton over 2.5 @ 2.21 :( West Brom - Man City over 3.5 @ 2.55 :( Stoke - Aston Villa over 2.5 @ 2.12 :( Arsenal -2.5 @ 2.68 :( Missed chances again Swansea @ 2.03 :( Just one bit of sloppy defending cost them a goal and the referee gives not give them a "stonewall" penalty Tottenham @ 1.81 :D Miserable round :puke Season record: 71-100 (+3.23) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December hmmm, not sure I agree with the bit about betting in play. If you are a serious punter you should be aware of how the odds work, and what factors make them increase or decrease, and by what amount when. You don't have to sit there working out whether something is value after the event. It should be a bit more pro-active than that. If for example the starting odds for a game were 2.30 3.40 and 3.80, a serious punter would understand which way the odds are likely to move if a goal is scored either way, or a sending off occurs, etc. In the example listed above both sides have been priced up fairly equal with a slight advantage given to the home side. If a goal was scored by the away side first, you'd probably see their odds shoot down to evens or something. It's understanding how various factors during the course of a game can effect the movement the odds take. Goals Over/Under are exactly the same. There are stats somewhere on the amount of games that go over 2.5 and under 2.5 after a 0-0 at HT, or after two goals are scored in the first half. It really is just understanding events and circumstances, and how they effect the movement in odds. Any serious punter should first and foremost gain an understanding of odds and how the market works. Yeah, there's no doubt that in-play betting is in principle the same as pre-match. And sometimes there are really good value opportunities. But overall I just think you need far, far greater discipline to make in-play betting pay. When you're working out pre-match odds, you have time to look at form, momentum, motivation of teams and other factors, and then work out where the value is. I think very often you won't have time to do things properly when betting in-play, so it's harder. And it's easy to think that you're 'value-betting' whereas in fact you're just throwing money at different bets/markets. Just talking from personal experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December Spurs to bt Norwich @ 1.80 (Stan James:4pts) WIN Forgot to update this, was a very patchy round but luckily dragged it to a minimal profit +0.4pts for this set of fixtures. Considering the shocks, I#ll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December I got lucky on my only bet over the festive period: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnydepp Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December If you're betting on the tie and BET365 are giving team B a +2 advantage, wouldn't team A need to win by two clear goals? As that would cancel out the two goal advantage and create a tie. If betting on team A - 2 you'd need them to win by three clear goals. Betting on team B + 2 would require team A to win by no bigger score than 1-0. A 0-0 scoreline benefits you only if you had backed Team B on a straight handicap + 2. As a side note it is really complicated and I can't see where BET365 offer real explanations on European Handicap's in their Terms and Conditions. There's extensive explanations on Asian, yet EH are somewhat neglected. My thoughts exactly!But hey, who's to argue with Bet365 right. They could bloody shutdown my account if I did. :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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