NCAAB - November 2011

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 :cheers Good work Weakestlink... Damn my cowardliness to miss out on the better odds for Purdue! Georgetown was tough to watch! Great work in OT. :notworthy

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Good night it was , but some teams failed me in final 60 seconds so it could have been even better. As I said I expect my results to improve as the season goes on. I'm glad you made some cash :cheers

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 I'll take a day off today :) There will be a lot of work for me in the final 5 days

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Dayton -2AH , 2.30 bet365 , 10units ( Fairfield : Dayton ) - points per game 66:77 ; FG% 46:48 ; 3FG% 32:37 ; rebounds per game 32:39 ; turnovers per game 15:15. Two close teams but in this game Dayton have one key advantage. They are better on Center position. They have good centers and they should dominate the paint tonight. The only thing that could swing this one to Fairfield's favour is if Dayton's big men get into some early foul trouble. Riverside -6AH , 2.60 bet365 , 10units ( Riverside : Boston ) - points per game 52:59 ; FG% 36:36 ; 3FG% 21:31 ; rebounds per game 35:34 ; turnovers per game 14:15. Two weak teams in this matchup. Based on stats Boston looks better but... I did not have a chance to see any of these two teams in action , but based on both teams results Riverside should win this one. They played against stronger teams and still managed to be a decent side. Boston played weaker teams and lost by 20+ in most of those so the choice is clear to me. Harvard -3AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units ( Harvard : Florida State ) - points per game 75:77 ; FG% 50:48 ; 3FG% 37:31 ; rebounds per game 32:44 ; turnovers per game 11:19. I can't wait for this one to start. Too great teams have to make this game one of the best so far this season. Both teams are playing good defense and can shoot the ball well. One simple reason for betting on Harvand here. They rested their starting players last night , no one played over 20 minutes and clearly they were getting ready for this one. Florida State played their usual game and did not rest their players more than they usually do. Northern Colorado -6AH , 3.00 bet365 , 10units ( Northern Colorado : Western Carolina ) - points per game 71:68 ; FG% 47:44 ; 3FG% 47:28 ; rebounds per game 30:29 ; turnovers per game 18:14. Northern Colorado have 4 defeats from 4 games and you must think I'm crazy betting on them. But they are better than Western Caroline maybe even by 15+. They are much better attacking team if nothing else. Also both of these two teams played against Northern Iowa and Iowa State. NC lost by 9 to Northern Iowa , WC lost by 20. Against Iowa State NC lost 8 and WC by 32. So clearly NC's attacking will be enough here. Portland State +6.5 , 2.20 bet365 , 10units ( Wyoming : Portland State ) - points per game 66:76 ; FG% 46:45 ; 3FG% 28:27 ; rebounds per game 35:42 ; turnovers per game 14:16. Once again two close teams. Portland State have stronger centers so they should be able to contain Wyoming in the paint. And since Wyoming do not shot well for three points and they do make quite a few turnovers this can't be a big win for home team , it's a question if they will win at all. Oklahoma -8AH , 2.80 bet365 , 10units ( Oklahoma : Santa Clara ) - points per game 81:73 ; FG% 43:42 ; 3FG% 40:30 ; rebounds per game 45:46 ; turnovers per game 14:14. Two good attacking sides , both able to dominate the paint. Oklahoma shoots much bettr for three points. They won all of their games quite comfortably while Santa Clara struggled against New Mexico in their last game and lost big time against Santa Barbara. They are not looking capable of winning against any stronger teams , so I have to go for Oklahoma here not because I expect them to dominate but because I really can not see Santa Clara making a close game.

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Wake Forest -6AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units ( Arizona State : Wake Forest ) - points per game 70:81 ; FG% 41:48 ; 3FG% 34:43 ; rebounds per game 37:32 ; turnovers per game 19:14. Wake Forest is huge favourite here and they are my bet of the day. They are much better no doubt about that. The only thing that could be decisive if they get into foul trouble is they don't use many players in rotation. Because of that they know each other well and can have better positioning ang higher percentages up front , and also better defensive positioning. They will dominate here and the only thing that can fail us here is if they get 2+ players fouled out.

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Columbia -1AH , 3.25 bet365 , 10units ( Manhattan : Columbia ) - points per game 69:57 ; FG% 36:37 ; 3FG% 32:33 ; rebounds per game 37:35 ; turnovers per game 17:14. Two weak teams based on the stats. Manhattan managed to win their close games , Columbia did not. And that is the only difference between them. But one thing is obvious. Columbia plays better against stronger teams and they seem to drop their levels against weaker teams. Manhattan does the opposite. I have to favour Columbia because they are better they just need the right approach

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 UCF -3AH , 3.30 bet365 , 10units ( UCF : Harvard ) - points per game 70:69 ; FG% 42:46 ; 3FG% 29:35 ; rebounds per game 37:33 ; turnovers per game 12:12. Harvard played an ackward game last night. After 11 minutes played they led 7:0 and at half time the result was 14:14. It was everything but good basketball. UCF won against Connecticut so they are in good form. Harvard did not play a good game last night but at moments they played some good defense. I expect them to score no more than 60 points in this match , I also expect UCF to be able to score at least 70 against I have to say once again weak Harvard team. Mississippi Valley State ML , 3.20 bet365 , 10units ( Mississippi Valley State - Cal Poly ) - points per game 72:59 ; FG% 42:40 ; 3FG% 35:29 ; rebounds per game 34:34 ; turnovers per game 16:14. I don't get the odds here. Based on everything the home team should be at least -5.5 favourites here. But I'm glad they are not because this is a great chance to profit from bookies mistakes. Home team played a lot better teams and played well despite losing. Poly Slo is not that good so this looks to me like a clear home win. Iowa State -7AH , 2.40 bet365 , 10units ( Rice : Iowa State ) - points per game 76:83 ; FG% 47:51 ; 3FG% 34:45 ; rebounds per game 43:35 ; turnovers per game 15:14. Iowa State is one of he teams that cover the spread more often than 90% of the teams. Let's hope they don't stop doing so tonight. Rice lost to Northern Iowa by 4 in their last game , and Iowa State is at least 5 points better team than Northern Iowa.They are a good attacking team and given their shooting percentage 35 rebounds is quite good paint action. I expect a close game but Iowa State will have the lead most of the time because they can attack better. Wyoming -21AH , 2.25 bet365 , 10units ( Wyoming - Maryland-Eastern Shore ) - points per game 66:53 ; FG% 47:34 ; 3FG% 30:31 ; rebounds per game 33:35 ; turnovers per game 13:19. Three reasons for this bet. Wyoming is much better team. They handle the ball a lot better and should have at least 15 points off turnovers more that Eastern Shore tonight. They can score from the paint more often than not unlike Maryland. Northridge +8AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units ( Drake : Northridge ) - points per game 67:71 ; FG% 47:35 ; 3FG% 36:22 ; rebounds per game 32:37 ; turnovers per game 17:14. I have no doubt who the better team is. But I watched Drake and they are making lots of turnovers and when they are tired they will make even more. Also their shooting will suffer as well in the second half. Northridge on the other hand is not a great team but they somehow manage to score points and they should be able to keep this one under 10 in these conditions. Wright State -8AH , 3.00 bet365 , 10units ( Wright State : Charlotte ) - points per game 59:68 ; FG% 38:39 ; 3FG% 33:30 ; rebounds per game 31:40 ; turnovers per game 15:18. I'll never know why most teams play a lot worse on road than they do at home but that is the case in NCAAB. Wright State is much better at home , Charlotte is much worse on road. Wright State played two very tough opponents so that is the reason why their FG% is low and their points on average is also low. They will improve that tonight. Southern Mississippi -8AH , 3.00 bet365 , 10units ( Southern Mississippi - Murray State ) - points per game 71:73 ; FG% 42:45 ; 3FG% 37:40 ; rebounds per game 39:31 ; turnovers per game 12:15. Murray State played a lot of easy opponents so far so their stats are much better than they will be after another 6 games. Southern Mississippi played against tougher teams and they did ok. I did not watch any of these teams but I did watch riverside and SM won against them. To do that they have to be quick players and capable of good defending. Easy win for SM. TCU ML , 3.00 bet365 , 10units Odds went from 3.15 to 3.00 in 5 minutes so I better wright this one first. Based on stats Houston should win by 10-15 no problem. But as proven many times before stats can deceive you and I think that is the case here. TCU and Houston played quite a few close games this season. Florida lost by 10 or won by 1. They have a chance to win here because Houston themselves are not much better than TCU. I have to say though I'm not too confident about this one , maybe 40%:60%.

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Hi everybody! Can you people who follow my ncaa basketball picks please leave a comment here ( anything ) , or send me an email. I just want to know how many of you follow this thread. Thanks :ok

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 You know i take a few! Although I took Wake Forest yesterday..... Sigh! Keep up the great work! :clap

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Yeah , me to :( But I also took all the others as well so I got away with that one. I know you do , but I doubt you and I had 500 page views so far :) Good luck tonight , Columbia already won so it's a good start :beer

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Southern Mississippi -2 to start the weekend with some pennies.. :hope

[arifeenzx]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011

hey buddy yeh i have been following your picks, even the nfl..but yeh i also tool wake forest and it just didnt happen, anyways lets keep it rolling! im also taking a few tonight and also on missip -2, can you say your best pick for tonight which one would that be, the one your most confident on, will put up a bit more, cheers thanks for all the good work

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 arifenzx , do not follow me on anything but NCAAB and Football :) I don't have any favourites , when I do I will mention it in a preview. I always bet singles on all the games and that's the way I bet. :cheers

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Turns out Charlotte are good away!! :wall F***ERS!!!!

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 It was not the best of nights. But still a profit of 16 units is not all that bad. Some incredible shooting , especially for 3pts (56% or 14/25) cost us a much bigger profit.

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 MD-Eastern Shore +9AH , 2.60 bet365 , 10units If you look at who these two teams played so far you will know why I took this bet. MD played some really tough opponents and you would expect them lose those games big time. SM played much easier opponents and they did not impress. I can see MD making this a close game , I even got a single on them to win this game. It's a long shot but I really think they can have a good game tonight. But +9AH is in my opinion also good enough. Indiana State -2AH , 2.30 bet365 , 10units ( Fairfield - Indiana State ) - points per game 63:66 ; FG% 45:42 ; 3FG% 30:39 ; rebounds per game 34:31 ; turnovers per game 15:12. Well thi game should be as close as they come , based on both teams results. But two things made me to bet Indiana State. They handle the ball slightly better and their 3pts % really gives me confidence they can edge this one. Also they look better in defense and seem to can play consistent defensive game for longer periods than Fairfield. VCU +8AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units ( Alabama : VCU ) - points per game 70:63 ; FG% 43:37 ; 3FG% 31:31 ; rebounds per game 43:33 ; turnovers per game 12:13. Alabama is favourite here no doubt about that. But they could be in for their toughest game so far this season. VCU played well so far this season but only first 20 minutes of their games and than had much trouble in the final 20 minutes. They worked on that issue and if their last game was not a fluke they worked on it well. I'm expecting VCU to test Alabama tonight and make it a close game limiting Alabama to mid 60pts , and maybe even get Alabama in foul trouble if they get frustrated. LouisianaTech +8AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units (Wyoming : Louisiana Tech ) - points per game 67:69 ; FG% 48:39 ; 3FG% 32:27 ; rebounds per game 32:43 ; turnovers per game 13:16. I know how this looks but there is reasoning here. Last night Louisiana Tech shot 19-74 from the field and 2-22 for 3pts. If they imrpove by 10% this will be a close game. They rested their key players last night. Wyoming played well last night and they rested some of the players in the second half. So both teams should be fresh for this one. Wyoming should still be able to win but I just like betting on a team after their worst game in a while and that is the case with LT. Tulane -18.5 , 2.60 bet365 , 10units ( San Diego : Tulane ) - points per game 69:76 ; FG% 46:48 ; 3FG% 35:38 ; rebounds per game 36:37 ; turnovers per game 16:13. This is my bet of the night and of course a little extra money goes on this bet. Two games tell you everything you need to know about this one. SD won against Alcorn State by 1 , Tulane won against Alcorn State by 42. I'm not saying they will do the same here , but 20-25 win looks very probable here. Villanova -10AH , 2.05 bet365 , 10units ( Santa Clara - Villanova ) - points per game 74:80 ; FG% 41:46 ; 3FG% 35:35 ; rebounds per game 40:41 ; turnovers per game 13:13. This will be my first look at Villanova. They look like a good team based on results so far and based on stats. I did watch Santa Clara's last game. Two of their best shooters had extremely good shooting game so I doubt they will be that good tonight , and thei whole attack depends on them shooting well. Also if Villanova is to have around 5 points lead in the final 2 minutes they will extend it to 10 no problem , because SC will make them shoot lots of free throws and try to extend the game as much as they can. Saint Louis -9AH , 2.70 bet365 , 10units ( Oklahoma - Saint Louis ) - points per game 82:70 ; FG% 44:48 ; 3FG% 39:43 ; rebounds per game 46:29 ; turnovers per game 13:9. One reason for this bet. Saint Louis uses the ball much better. They make few turnovers so Oklahoma may score 10-15 points fewer than they usually do. Also they will not have rebounding advantage as the stats suggest. Saint Louis has extremely good % so they don't need to have many rebounds , but they are as good in the paint as Oklahoma if not even better.

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Stay clear of lines such as "Easy win for South Mississippi" cause I will believe you and go in heavy and feel like punching everything when I check the score in the morning and they've been beaten! Back in today! GLGL!

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011

Stay clear of lines such as "Easy win for South Mississippi" cause I will believe you and go in heavy and feel like punching everything when I check the score in the morning and they've been beaten! Back in today! GLGL!

But I really do believe it when I write it :cry Once again , I bet all of the games I put here so if I get 1-2 wrong it's still not a losing night. I will try to reduce those statements though ... :cheers

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Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011

Tulane -18.5 , 2.60 bet365 , 10units ( San Diego : Tulane ) - points per game 69:76 ; FG% 46:48 ; 3FG% 35:38 ; rebounds per game 36:37 ; turnovers per game 16:13. This is my bet of the night and of course a little extra money goes on this bet. Two games tell you everything you need to know about this one. SD won against Alcorn State by 1 , Tulane won against Alcorn State by 42. I'm not saying they will do the same here , but 20-25 win looks very probable here.

:nana:clap:nana Followed!!! -13.5 was even surer. Thank you very much and keep doing this. Your picks are impressive, mate.

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Thanks :cigar I'm doing the best I can. I had them -18.5 and these last 20s were tense. Now I wait for the two key games :hope

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 If anyone is using bet365 , do you have any limitations on your stakes ? I've heard they limit your stakes to something like 5-10 euros or whatever money you use , if you start staking big money and start winning.

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011

:nana:clap:nana Followed!!! -13.5 was even surer. Thank you very much and keep doing this. Your picks are impressive, mate.

Did the same and came out with some lovely pennies! Great work Weakestlink! I use bet365, and haven't been been limited to what I can put on... This probably tells more about how good a gambler I am!! :cheers

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Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Me too and I am not limited... :cheers

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 16units profit tonight. Not bad but could have been a lot better again. VCU and Eastern Shore lost it in the final moments. Glad you made some cash :drums

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 I've never followed everyone for a day. If you have some keen selections tomorrow I will follow everyone and hopefully follow you in some profit!

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Not many games today so my advice is not to bet on all the games. I will write two previews now , and maybe 1-2 more in a couple of hours. Xavier -2.5 , 2.90 bet365 , 10units ( Vanderbilt - Xavier ) - points per game 77:74 ; FG% 46:49 ; 3FG% 35:42 ; rebounds per game 37:40 ; turnovers per game 15:14. Well I have to stay away from my clear win statements :) Vanderbilt have a couple of players out with injuries. they lost to Cleveland State and I think Xavier is a bit stronger that CS. Also Xavier looks more agile , and like they have more will to win that Vanderbilt does. And the quality of players is about the same. I have to say I think Xavier will edge this one tonight , but it's basketball and as we've seen in last couple of night's , a team shooting 25% can hit it and shoot 50% , so I can not guarantee anything. But Xavier looks a bit stronger in every category. Oakland -3AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units ( Oakland - Tennessee ) - points per game 73:85 ; FG% 41:49 ; 3FG% 26:44 ; rebounds per game 38:39 ; turnovers per game 13:13. Oakland makes lots of 3 point shots but they don't hit many. That could be different today as Tennessee is not the best defending teams , they will even stop defending at all for some 10 minutes in each half. That is if they play like they did in Maui. Tennessee have their own Lebron James and if he has a good night Tennessee has a good night. Tennessee does not do well when opponents put some presure on them so the result of this game depends solely on how Oakland will play their defense because they should have a good shooting night. I believe they are capable because Tennessee gets complacent quite often.

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 SF State +9.5 , 2.50 bet365 , 10units ( Jacksonville State - San Francisco State ) - points per game 65:52 ; FG% 42:32 ; 3FG% 26:31 ; rebounds per game 37:34 ; turnovers per game 16:11. You'll think I'm crazy but I don't see JS winning this one in double digits. They are not a great team , and based on what info I have SF are not all that bad. They lost by 30+ yes , but they did so because their shooting percentage was low and their opponents hit 15 threes and shot over 50% from the field. SF did not make a lot of turnovers just 11. So I hope they improve their shooting for 3pts in this one.

[Stribs]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 Great Shout on Xavier.... good work!! :cheers

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 What a night this was. I hope that's it for the month as far as competition goes. I'll keep posting here on forum of course. Once again , glad you people made some cash. Drink it well :cheers

[WeakestLink]

Re: WeakestLink - NCAAB - November 2011 WARNING - after a big winning night , the following night is usually not that good I'm not saying I did things differently tonight but that's just the unwritten rule , so I have to warn you all. I wish us the best of luck anyway :hope LSU -4.5 , 3.00 bet365 , 10units ( Houston - LSU ) - points per game 83:75 ; FG% 49:40 ; 3FG% 38:38 ; rebounds per game 38:38 ; turnovers per game 13:13. Houston is a slight favourite here but you can not expect an easy game when you play against LSU. They are a team that just won't go away. LSU improved their defense in last three games and that could be the key for this one as Houston is used to shooting a lot of easy shots. I think Houston will not be as good as they usually arebecause of that LSU's defense , but if LSU don't improve their offense tonight they could lose. I believe they are good enough to edge this one from the FT line in the final 40-60 seconds. Northwestern -4AH , 3.10 bet365 , 10units ( Georgia Tech - Northwestern ) - points per game 68:72 ; FG% 48:45 ; 3FG% 31:33 ; rebounds per game 41:29 ; turnovers per game 15:8. The only way I can compare this two teams since I did not see them play , is LSU . Georgia Tech lost and Northwestern won. Other than that what I can tell from their games so far and from the stats. Both good shooting teams , not great but good. Georgia Tech rebounds well , but make quite a few turnovers and that tells me they like to play short possessions. Northwestern on the other hand long possessions , good build up in attack. New Mexico State -7AH , 2.62 bet365 , 10units ( New Mexico State - Arizona ) - points per game 79:68 ; FG% 43:41 ; 3FG% 35:35 ; rebounds per game 40:37 ; turnovers per game 15:14. New Mexico State won all of their games by 9+ except one. Arizona not so good in recent games and they are on road for this one so not much going their way at the moment. They are still a very good team and they will improve as the season goes but right now NM looks like the better side and they are at home for this. NM does not make their games dramatic so another 9+ win looks probable. Michigan -2.5 , 3.00 bet365 , 10units ( Virginia - Michigan ) - points per game 63:68 ; FG% 46:49 ; 3FG% 33:33 ; rebounds per game 33:33 ; turnovers per game 13:12. I expect this one to be a similar game to Xavier last night. Two equal teams but it seems like Michigan just have the edge in everything. The result of this one will depend on one single thing , who will get to the free throw line more and who will score more from those. Miami(FL) +3AH , 3.25 bet365 , 10units ( Purdue - Miami ) - points per game 79:67 ; FG% 45:40 ; 3FG% 40:35 ; rebounds per game 37:37 ; turnovers per game 9:11. Both teams can shoot the ball well , both teams can defend well , both teams handle the ball great. I see this one as a close game and once again the better focused team in final 5 minutes wins the game. Maybe even overtimes in this one and under 130 points. Cincinnati -18.5 , 3.25 bet365 , 10units ( Cincinnati - Miami Ohio ) - points per game 66:65 ; FG% 45:43 ; 3FG% 37:32 ; rebounds per game 39:35 ; turnovers per game 15:17. Based on stats and results so far Miami Ohio +10 is a much better bet. But as you know it's not all about those things. Miami Ohio did lost by 6 against Xavier , but there is a couple of things you need to know about that. Xavier is not a team for high spreads. Also in that game MO had a great night while Xavier had one of their worst. Cincinnati can play strong defense and they like to win big so everything can come into place tonight for their 20+ win. Texas -25.5 , 2.30 bet365 , 10units ( Texas - North Texas ) - points per game 81:67 ; FG% 46:38 ; 3FG% 37:29 ; rebounds per game 38:37 ; turnovers per game 14:17. Texas lost two close games on neutral locations and won three games at home.I think this one will be either lost or won in the final 3 minutes and based on the coach's decision to rest his key players in final 2 minutes or not to rest them. I can not know that , but I think Texas has enough quality , and the stats back that , to get up to 25 well before the final 5 minutes in front of their crowd. Syracuse -32.5 , 2.50 bet365 , 10units ( Syracuse - Eastern Michigan ) - points per game 83:58 ; FG% 49:39 ; 3FG% 36:26 ; rebounds per game 40:35 ; turnovers per game 13:15. I know I said no big dogs any more , but I have to bet on this one. The difference between these two teams is huge in every category. I think Syracuse can cover this spread because of two reasons. They did not win big in last two games and they are a team that wins big often , and they are playing this one at home. The second reason is because they use many players in rotation ( EM does not ) and all of them can play on at least equal terms with EM's starting 5. Illinois -7AH , 2.40 bet365 , 10units ( Maryland - Illinois ) - points per game 65:73 ; FG% 43:47 ; 3FG% 31:33 ; rebounds per game 35:37 ; turnovers per game 15:14. This will be things as usual for both teams. Maryland don't do well against better teams , they lose by 10+ most the time. Illinois wins by 10+ almost all the time , so the choice is clear to me. Illinois the better team here in every category should be able to prove that if nothing unexpected happens tonight.