Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

[Jase82]

	Tuesday 15 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Croatia v Turkey (19:00 GMT)	1.65	3	3.15	125.69 %
	Montenegro v Czech Republic (19:15 GMT)	2.62	2.5	2.16	124.46 %
	Republic of Ireland v Estonia (19:45 GMT)	1.3	3.65	6.2	120.45 %
	Portugal v Bosnia-Herzegovina (21:00 GMT)	1.4	3	4.9	125.17 %

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November These are the second legs aren't they?

[Silence.]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

These are the second legs aren't they?

Yeah.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Obviously these are best left until after the results of the first legs are known (playing Friday 11th)

[Capricorno]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Bosnia are major value here. They usually play even better when there is less pressure on them. Also their LB Papac (Rangers) and Pandza are back. This will free up Lulic or Salihovic to add creative flair to their midfield and at Bosnia @ 9 for the win/ Bosnia-Bosnia HT/FT @ 19.5 for them to sneak an early goal and hold up. Usually, they come out firing like against France in the first half, when they had something l;ike 9-0 shots on goal. Although, Salihovic (not sure if he is out with the yellow ??) and Mujdza (RB) are big losses I still think they may just sneak a win here or at least draw. I will wait until the line ups are announced before the game. If Bosnia is starting with 2 forwards (like they had in the 2nd half) I will bet on them DRAW NO BET. We saw when they made the sub that they actually had more chances then Portugal. This is mainly due to the fact that 2 strikers draws out Pepe and the other defenders , forcing them to come out more often and with one striker option Dzeko is left alone with no space to move/no support. He plays a lot better when he has someone to 'feed' off. If Bosnia lines up with one striker, I will avoid this game. We also saw that Portugal struggles more (e.g Norway game) whenever a team faces them with 2 stirkers. Bosnia to qualify @ 3.5 (draw 1-1,2-2, penalty shooutout or win) will also be something ill have a bet on, if they line up with Ibisevic and Dzeko. Otherwise, no bet- no value in Portugal ---------------------------------- Croatia WIN- 1.83 @ Bet365 and CRoatia/Croatia- HT/FT- 2.90 As I said in my previous Game 1 post- simply more quality player for player plus they will want to rub it in to the Turks for their Euro 2008 defeat in front of their home crowd. Slaven Bilic will want to prove a point to the fans , as well. Turks will come over the top attacking and thus will be very exposed to the quality Croatian attack --------------------------------------- Ireland EHC -1 @ 2.05 .. will also look at AHC -1 Estonia is simply weak as I mentioned in my other post. I remember them losing 0:7 to Bosnia only in their last qualifying campaign. People have over hyped them based on poor Serbian (demoralised) and Slovenian sides

[mad_men]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Bosnia are major value here. They usually play even better when there is less pressure on them. Also their LB Papac (Rangers) and Pandza are back. This will free up Lulic or Salihovic to add creative flair to their midfield and at Bosnia @ 9 for the win/ Bosnia-Bosnia HT/FT @ 19.5 for them to sneak an early goal and hold up. Usually, they come out firing like against France in the first half, when they had something l;ike 9-0 shots on goal. Although, Salihovic (not sure if he is out with the yellow ??) and Mujdza (RB) are big losses I still think they may just sneak a win here or at least draw. I will wait until the line ups are announced before the game. If Bosnia is starting with 2 forwards (like they had in the 2nd half) I will bet on them DRAW NO BET. We saw when they made the sub that they actually had more chances then Portugal. This is mainly due to the fact that 2 strikers draws out Pepe and the other defenders , forcing them to come out more often and with one striker option Dzeko is left alone with no space to move/no support. He plays a lot better when he has someone to 'feed' off. If Bosnia lines up with one striker, I will avoid this game. We also saw that Portugal struggles more (e.g Norway game) whenever a team faces them with 2 stirkers. Bosnia to qualify @ 3.5 (draw 1-1,2-2, penalty shooutout or win) will also be something ill have a bet on, if they line up with Ibisevic and Dzeko. Otherwise, no bet- no value in Portugal ----------------------------------

How many chances chances of scoring (or even shots on goal) Bosnia had for the first 70 minutes of the game ? ZERO How many chances they had in 90 minutes of the game ? Two. Ibisevic on 73th minute missed the first touch and later (around 80th minute) he had the opportunity 1 on1 by mistake of defence . Thats what they showed. I didn't get that hype about them before and I don't understand it now. Clear Portugal win for me. Most likely gonna bet this game Live when the odds for Portugal will rise.

[Capricorno]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November I understand and agree. However, how many clear chances did Portugal have.. 2 or 3. In the last 20 mins preety much nothing. I dont think Bosnia should be as high as 9.0. I will definetly make a small bet on them IF THEY PLAY WITH TWO STRIKERS, because i believe they should be shorter (around ~4.7). If they start with one striker I will not bet on them, because like you said they will get shut down and Dzeko will be 'stranded' up front with no support. The larger pitch in Luz will actually be better for them then the narrow pitch in Zenica. My bet is only based on Bosnia playing 2 strikers, which will draw out the Portugese defence (has been shaky in the qualies) and hitting Portugal on the counter. I dont think Portugal is THAT much greater, as the odds suggest.

[mad_men]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November You made good points Capricorno. I do agree that those odds on Portugal aren't bettable at this moment.... just too low. But at the same time I can't make a bet on the Bosnia from what I saw in their first game... didn't convince me at all.

[Jase82]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Ireland V Estonia UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.9 - BET365. I think the majority would expect this fixture to go over, but despite the caution displayed by Trapattoni I think Ireland are through and this fixture will probably just drift into a bit of a training exercise as both sides run through the motions a bit. Can't see too many Irish players busting a gut, and risking injuries considering a return to club football is only on Saturday. I'm pretty confident the first leg would have gone under were it not for the two players being sent off, and now all Estonia have to play for is pride.

[Aidymac]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Ireland V Estonia UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.9 - BET365. I think the majority would expect this fixture to go over, but despite the caution displayed by Trapattoni I think Ireland are through and this fixture will probably just drift into a bit of a training exercise as both sides run through the motions a bit. Can't see too many Irish players busting a gut, and risking injuries considering a return to club football is only on Saturday. I'm pretty confident the first leg would have gone under were it not for the two players being sent off, and now all Estonia have to play for is pride.

I think Trapatonni may put a few different players on and might leave the shackles off Tuesday, there are fringe players that will be given a chance and they will be busting a gut trying to make a good impression.. However i think under 2.5 is still a realistic bet, and the most likely outcome!

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Not sure how crazy I'd be about the unders, really. Can't see for a second a situation were Ireland will sit back against Estonia; Spain or Germany perhaps, but not Estonia :lol Estonia will have to attack, which'll allow Ireland to score once or twice, and Estonia are a better side away. They scored three times in Serbia and twice in Slovenia and Northern Ireland.

[Jase82]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Estonia will have to attack, which'll allow Ireland to score once or twice, and Estonia are a better side away. They scored three times in Serbia and twice in Slovenia and Northern Ireland.

Why would they attack? They're 4-0 down.... if we get past all the sound bites about the tie not being over, it pretty much is, and I think both sets of players will be aware of that. I don't think Estonia really have the ability to go all out attack in an attempt to get five goals. If they open up too much they risk a demoralising mauling. The games in the group stages were under completely different circumstances too, where there was no pressure, and there wasn't an absolute necessity for goals. They probably played three sides at the right time also, three sides that are perhaps in slight decline.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Why would they attack? They're 4-0 down.... if we get past all the sound bites about the tie not being over' date=' it pretty much is, and I think both sets of players will be aware of that. I don't think Estonia really have the ability to go all out attack in an attempt to get five goals. If they open up too much they risk a demoralising mauling.[/quote'] I think they will attack because they have nothing to lose - and although very unlikely, turn-arounds CAN happen and do happen sometimes. I don't see the risk of a demoralising heavy defeat as being enough to dissuade them from attacking. I can't see the Estonia coach saying "Look lads, I know we're 4-0 down in a 2 legged playoff, but please concentrate on defending and don't attack, because I really don't want another big defeat". I think he's a bit more likely to say "Look lads, we're 4-0 down, but it's only half-time - we've nothing to lose really, and everyone has written us off, so let's have a go".

[Jase82]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

I think they will attack because they have nothing to lose - and although very unlikely' date=' turn-arounds CAN happen and do happen sometimes. I don't see the risk of a demoralising heavy defeat as being enough to dissuade them from attacking. I can't see the Estonia coach saying [i']"Look lads, I know we're 4-0 down in a 2 legged playoff, but please concentrate on defending and don't attack, because I really don't want another big defeat". I think he's a bit more likely to say "Look lads, we're 4-0 down, but it's only half-time - we've nothing to lose really, and everyone has written us off, so let's have a go".

Maybe if you're Sean Bean and the film is When Saturday Comes :lol Seriously though, I accept the points made, and we'll see what happens :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Maybe if you're Sean Bean and the film is When Saturday Comes :lol Seriously though, I accept the points made, and we'll see what happens :ok

Sure :ok Although I think Estonia will attack, I don't necessarily think the game will be over 2.5 goals. I think the scoreline in Estonia slightly flattered Ireland, and there is a fair chance that Estonia will win or draw the game in Dublin, and Ireland really won't be that bothered if they lose, say, 1-0. I haven't studied the odds yet, so I'm not suggesting any bets atm.

[Aidymac]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Sure :ok Although I think Estonia will attack, I don't necessarily think the game will be over 2.5 goals. I think the scoreline in Estonia slightly flattered Ireland, and there is a fair chance that Estonia will win or draw the game in Dublin, and Ireland really won't be that bothered if they lose, say, 1-0. I haven't studied the odds yet, so I'm not suggesting any bets atm.

Estonia barely created a single chance in the whole game! They get to around 30 or 40 yards out and they shoot on sight. They are clueless and i dont know how in gods name they beat Serbia, but more than likely only because Serbia took them too lightly and didnt show up! They are now also missing their key centre-back for the 2nd leg and the other chap that got sent off and Ireland have Doyle back! I think Estonia already know the game is up and i think that will show in their performance tomorrow, its party time in Dublin tomorrow night with another Irish victory.. 9 clean sheets in 10 games! :beer

[baggio]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November I'm gonna take Croatia on the half/full double @ 2.50. - Croatia looked superior to Turkey at Turkey, which is usually a hard place to go to. - Croatia, if they don't win, can be matched against Germany/Spain in the next round - so they'll be surely looking to avoid that. - Hiddink recently announced he will play youngsters. - Score 43% of their goals in the 1st half. - Arda Turan, Hakan Balta, Emre and Kacar out for the match (3 important players, Kacar not so important but he started the last match.)

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Quite a few opinions on the Ireland V Estonia game. However with so many imponderables, it's a clear no bet for me. One bet I am considering though is BTTS in Portugal V Bosnia. A lot has been made of Bosnia's lack of chances in the first leg, but I think an important factor here was that Bosnia were missing 3 of their first choice back four. I believe that they would of been very wary of getting caught out at the back and conceding an away goal. And so took a safty firsy approach. When these teams met in the play-off for the World Cup, Portugal won the first leg in Lisbon 1-0. However I think I am right in saying Bosnia hit the woodwork 3 times. They certainly created plenty of chances. Their failure in that leg to score was critical, and I believe they will be greatly encouraged to have kept Portugal scoreless in the first leg this time around. With their 2 centre backs returning for this leg, I think they will offer more Portugal are far from rock solid at the back. They only kept 2 clean sheets in their 8 group games, and 1 in 4 at home. They shipped 8 goals in the other 3 home games. While 4 of those were in the 4-4 draw with Cyprus (prior to Bento taking charge), they gave up plenty of chances in the 5-3 home win to Iceland and the 2-1 away defeat to Denmark. Bosnia are far from prolific scorers, but they did net in 8 of their 10 group games. I watched their last game against France, and they showed enough going forward to convince me that they will get chances against this Portugal defence. And this was against a France team that were coming off a run of 6 clean sheets in their previous 8 group games, and only conceded 3 times in their 10 outings all told. Throw in the added "all-or-nothing" element of this game, and I think the price of 2.5 makes considerable appeal. All opinions welcome :ok

[AGurv]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November International Soccer 2011 Overall 15W-9L-6P +3.72 units (62.50%) Czech Republic pick +107 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Like the value here in this game. The Czech's won fairly easily @ home and I think they should win again. Montenegro has played well at home but I think the opponents should be reviewed. They got a draw with an England squad that already knew they were in + they were a man down with the Rooney red card. I think I'd usually lean with the draw here, but due to Montenegro probably pushing the issue, it will leave some chances open for the Czech Republic to score a few on the counter.

[blackcrow]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Croatia -1 (EH) @ 2.95 centrebet Turkey were easily exposed by Croatia in the first leg as the visitors sat back and attacked them on the counter. With a 3-0 deficit to overcome, Turkey have no choice but to attack and can see them once again being beaten on the counter attack. They are without several key players who played in the first leg Turan, Sarioglu, Belozoglu, Balta and Kacar, so there depth is tested, while mentally they are beaten, as they go to one of the hardest places to win a game, as Croatia have lost just once at home in the last 15 years or so. While there is a possibility that the Croats may take this easy, given the lead they have, there is an expectation from the supporters that they need to finish them off, and like them to do so here against this depleted and demoralised Turkish side. Montenegro - Czech Republic over 2.5 @ 2.28 pinnacle Montenegro are down 2-0 from the first leg, so they will need to attack and look to even up the tie. They have scored in each of their last 4 qualifiers at home, (drawing 2-2 with England, drawing 1-1 with Bulgaria and beating both Switzerland and Wales 1-0). For the Czechs, they can afford to sit back and wait for the home side to come at them, but they have scored and conceded in each of their last 3 away qualifiers (winning 4-1 in Lithuania, drawing 2-2 in Scotland and lost 2-1 in Spain) and having scored within the first 30 minutes of 2 of those games, would not be surprised that they go looking for an early goal if there is chance to do so. If that happens, then Montenegro will have no choice but to go all out on the attack, and can see this develop into an open game with attacks and counter attacks featuring during the coure of the game. Ireland -1.5 @ 2.01 pinnacle Ireland lead 4-0 from the first leg as they defended really well while hitting them on the counter quite easily, and once Stepanov and Piroja got sent off, then it was a foregone conclusion. Once again, doubt that the Irish will have too many problems holding out the Estonians, and as they are down these two suspended defenders, then can see the Irish forwards making the most of their opportunities to get in behind this defence. No pressure on this Irish so they can be much more relaxed in playing this game, and though the Estonians have played better in their last qualifiers on the road where they won 2-1 in the Northern Ireland and in Slovenia, they are up against a much better defence, as well as some good, inform fowards. Portugal - Bosnia-Herzegovina over 2.5 @ 2.03 pinnacle Both teams were unhappy with the state of the pitch in the first leg, which did not help either side to create much and it was a pretty lacklustre game. Expect this one to be much different, as the pitch should be much more conducive to help the talented players both sides have to go forward to win the game. Portugal have seen some high scoring game in most of their home qualifiers (5-3 win over Iceland, 1-0 win over Norway, 3-1 win over Denmark and 4-4 draw with Cyprus) while BH have also had some good performances on the road in these qualifiers (1-1 draw in France, 2-0 win in Belarus, 3-0 loss in Romania, 1-1 draw in Albania and 3-0 win in Luxembourg) so they have managed to score in 4 of their 5 away games, and if they do so here, then Portugal will need to score twice to progress through. Can see both teams scoring in this game and given this situation, either Portugal's relentless attacks, or BH's counter attacks will see a third goal being scored.

[jompy]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Croatia - Turkey Croatia smashed Turkey in Istanbul and I really cant see another outcome today. Turkey got big troubles to get the 2nd place in the group and couldnt managed to overplay much weaker sides, even at home. I really dont believe they deserve to be here, I prefer to see Belgium. Turkey is gonna miss some regulars and that will affect on their performance for sure. Also the moral should be quite low after such loss. The absent of Turan and Emre will make their midfield without any creativity for sure. Also regular starters in defense as Kacar and Balta are out too. Croatia will need the win to escape from the 3 pots in euro finals , so could escape from big names like Germany and Spain(eventually) Croatia got much better squad and using their home advantage I expect even easier task for them, as I expect Turkey to open spaces, searching for goals form the beginning. Croatia(-1.5)AH 2.75 @ Bet365

[jompy]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Ireland - Estonia Ireland missed to play on the last finals due to big referee mistake or not? at France but now they seem ready to do the job, especially after such impressive win away from home in the first leg. Ireland overplayed Estonia and showed that they are strong motivated and well prepared to play on euro finals finally. Ireland dominated, was much more creative and provoke hosts to make mistake in defense. today at home in front of their crowd, I expect hosts searching for another win, as the crowd wont be satisfied with draw for sure. Estonia made one of their best qualification campaings for sure or maybe the best. but now the fairy-tale is over and they undersood it even in first game for sure. They will miss regular gk and their captain which is huge blow for their defensive lines. Also after missing the home advantage I cant expect Estonia playing with motivation and high moral today I expect Ireland to win again Ireland(-1.5)AH 2.01 @ Redbet

[Jr23]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Agree with guys above, Ireland-Estonia Ireland: Shay Given; John O’Shea, Sean St Ledger, Richard Dunne, Stephen Ward; Stephen Hunt, Glenn Whelan, Keith Andrews, Damien Duff; Kevin Doyle, Robbie Keane © Estonia: Londak; Jääger,Klavan, Rähn, Kruglov; Lindpere, Vunk, Vassiljev, Teniste; Saag, Voskoboinikov As you can see from expected lineups, Ireland is even stronger than the last game in Estonia imo, replacing Walters with Doyle, McGready with Hunt and Kelly with O'Shea. While its opposite for Estonia. Without their best gk Pareiko and captain Piiroja, cd who are suspended because of the cards. Rähn and Klavan are going to play in centre defense, how they will manage Keane-Doyle frustrates my brain to be honest. Lindpere comes to the starting lineup, but he trained first time with the team before the Tallinn game, so that might be a problem. Anyhow there will be lots of changes in Estonia lineup and less for Ireland, its to be seen how we approach the game, if we go for qualification (from 4-0 down, ok then) then we will be killed even before HT, but even with a defensive approach, this Ireland will be too much for us and still win comfortably. They are superstrong never lost in ages , dont remember when was the last time they picked the ball out of their net, while we simply are not yet ready for Euro groups, maybe we learn from our mistakes from Tallinn and it will happen in World Cup qualification , well see. Henry's show will be forgotten tonight and theres gonna be even bigger party after 90 mins. Ireland -1.5 @ Pinnacle @ 1.98 , 5 pts

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Late play for me. Think both the Portugal V Bosnia & Montenegro V Czech Rep games are still in the balance, to varying degrees. Expect that as the games progress, the team losing/going out may lose their heads. Or could be franticly defending. So: Over 1.5 yellow cards in 2nd half for Bosnia @1.53 - BWIN Over 1.5 yellow cards in 2nd half for Montenegro @2.1 - BWIN 1pt double :hope

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November

Late play for me. Think both the Portugal V Bosnia & Montenegro V Czech Rep games are still in the balance, to varying degrees. Expect that as the games progress, the team losing/going out may lose their heads. Or could be franticly defending. So: Over 1.5 yellow cards in 2nd half for Bosnia @1.53 - BWIN Over 1.5 yellow cards in 2nd half for Montenegro @2.1 - BWIN 1pt double :hope

Nice and easy +2.2pts :cigar

[blackcrow]

Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Tuesday 15th November Croatia -1 (EH) @ 2.95 :( Had their chances to win this but not to be Montenegro - Czech Republic over 2.5 @ 2.28 :( Ireland -1.5 @ 2.01 :( Another team that should have done better with the chances they had Portugal - Bosnia-Herzegovina over 2.5 @ 2.03 :D Both teams put away their chances