NFL Wk. 1.

[meatman]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. Iwent 5-4 with my performance bets yesterday, delivering near enough a level return with no profit or loss. Was very unlucky with Matt Shaib, that the Texans were so far ahaead and they just ran it for most of the 2nd half. Here are my picks for tonights games :- Patriots - Dolphins Tom Brady OVER 254.5 passing yards @ 1.83 Ladbrokes 4pts Chad Henne OVER 230.5 passing yards @ 1.83 Ladbrokes 3pts For me, this game is going to be a pass heavy one because both defences are pretty good against the rush. Tom Brady as we all know is capable of big numbers and has a vast number of receivers to aim for here. No matter what the situation of the game, Brady is the sort of QB who can be relied upon, 250.5 looks a very generous line on him, so I’ll take his overs. I’m also going to take Chad Henne over 230.5. Not a lot of people rate him, and I admit he’s nothing special, but in this game I just cant see the Dolphins going to the ground much. If Henne can link up well with Marshall, as has reportedly been the case in pre season, then he should have a decent game. Another thing to be considered is that Miami are likely to be behind in this game, meaning throwing is likely to be enforced more. Ben Jarvus Green Ellis UNDER 70.5 rushing yards @ 1.91 Skybet 3pts I really don’t see the Pats running it that much tonight, and when they do I think they’ll struggle against a strong Miami defence facing the rush. When NE do run it they have three different options anyway, with Green Ellis and Woodhead doing the bulk of the work. I’m really surprised to see such a high yardage on Green Ellis here, he is going to have to have an extremely good game to cover this, personally I cant see it. He’ll be shut off fairly easily IMO when on the field, and the Pats will throw it a lot too. So many different reasons point to the unders here IMO. Rob Gronkowski OVER 29.5 receiving yard @ 1.87 Bodog 3pts Brady had a wealth of different options to choose from, and at TE he has two very capable candidates. Hernandez might well take some yards off him, but I’d still expect Gronkowski to pick up more than 29.5 yards. This is a very low yardage for someone of his quality, he might even take this down with one reception. Wes Welker OVER 60.5 receiving yards @ 1.67 Bet365 3pts Of all the NE receivers, Wes will be the one that Brady looks to the most. He should pick up more receptions than anyone else, overall giving him a good chance of obtaining more than 60.5 yards. The only worry is that the yardage might be spread around a bit, but at crunch situations then its likely Brady will go looking for him. I’d say a fairer line here would be at least 10 yards higher, so its worth taking. Raiders - Broncos Darren McFaddon OVER 75.5 rushing yards @ 1.87 Bodog 5pts This will be my biggest bet of the night and I really fancy McFadden to run hard and well here. The Broncos defence is supposedly going to be an improvement than last year, but its going to have to be a lot better against the run to stop this man. The Broncs were terrible against decent RBs last year, and until I see otherwise then I’m a firm believer little will change. 75.5 is far too low a line from Bodog here, I personally think he’ll run over a 100 yards. The only doubt is injury, which is always a niggling worry with him, but I’ll happily stake 5pts on this. Knowshon Moreno OVER 58.5 rushing yards @ 1.83 Paddypower 4pts Like their opponents, the Raiders weren’t particularly good against the rush last season either and there will be gaps and opportunities for Moreno to exploit. With his sort of pace, one really big run could go a long way to covering this line, which seems really low to me. Potentially, he’s capable of going over 100 yards here, although is more likely to end up around the 80 yard mark. Either way, 58.5 seems far too low, so I’ll snap this one up. Brandon Lloyd OVER 70.5 receiving yards @ 1.83 Bet365 3pts Brandon Lloyd finished as the leagues leading receiver in yardage last season so must be treated with respect. Ok, everything went his way in 2010 and it’ll be hard for him to repeat a total of 1600+ again, but I’d still expect him to go well. He has a strong connection with Kyle Orton and he’ll be the ‘go to’ man in crunch situations. The Raiders defence wont be too bad against the pass, but I still think Lloyd will see plenty of the ball giving him a good chance of covering this yardage. Last season, he received 70+ yards in 11/16 games so I’ll happily take this line. Best of luck everyone!

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. Green Bay -6.5 @ 2.11 :D Buffalo +3.5 @ 2.11 :D Cleveland -6.5 @ 1.97 :( Tennessee -2.5 @ 2.13 :( Atlanta -2.5 @ 1.98 :( San Diego -9.5 @ 2.06 :( NY Jets -6.5 @ 1.97 :( Terrible day yesterday :$ New England -9.5 @ 2.21 centrebet NE have QB Brady once again to lead te offence with Welker, Branch and now Ochocino as his targets. Also a couple of good TEs like Gronkowski and Hernandez, and you have a team that can score poitns, as they hit 30+ in 11 of their games last year. RBs Green-Ellis and Woodhead give them a good balance so like them to score points on this Miami defence. Though the Miami defence did well for most of the season, when they came to playing NE, they would end up getting rollled as they allowed 502 yards in the 38-76 loss to NE and also losing 41-14 last October at home. Miami tends to struggle on offence as they scored less than 15 points in 9 of their games last year. They have added Bush to the running game, but expect NE to be better defensively with DE Haynesworth there to pressure the QB while the NE rush defence was ranked 11th last year (108 yards per game) and they should be do well again, against a run focused Miami offence. NE have won 3 of their last 4 games in Miami and each by 20+ while Miami are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home openers Oakland -2.5 @ 2.60 centrebet Oakland will look to continue to run the ball as they averaged 156 yards on the ground, and they ran for 328 yards and 264 yards in both of their games against Denver last year. RB McFadden will be looking for another good start to this season while QB Campbelll also has some ablity to improve on last year. Denver were poor against the run alst year, allowing 155 yards per game (ranked 31st) as they allowed 29 points per game. They have some new players on defence who will take tiem to adapt to their scheme so like McFadden to do well here once again. The secondary is good so though they may air the ball to balance it up, still expect Oakland to run it quite a bit here. Looks like Orton will start at QB as they averaged 250 passing yards per game last year (ranked 7th) and he will look to hook up with WR Floyd but with new coach Fox there, they may decide to focus on the run here. Moreno and McGahee are good not of the quality of McFadden. They have a young OL line which will see Oakland look to use their experience there to dominate at the line. Oakland had its problems in defending the run as they allowd 134 yards per game (ranekd 29th) last year, but with 47 sacks (tied for second) they are very good at getting to the QB. Also they allowed just 189 passing yards per game (ranked 2nd) so you may see Denver to look to run the ball more often here. Oakland have won 5 of their last 6 in Denver and like them to do so again here Record: 2-5 (-2.78)

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. Nice work meatman and Samba. :ok I'm not sure I've had a more unlucky start to the season myself...but meh, I'm sure it will even out along the way. Atl @ Chic...missed by a point with a fumble returned where Ryan wasn't even touched, just dropped the ball...and a rediculous call late on a 3rd and 4 (even from a non-cranky betting pov! :wall ) when up 30-6 lead to a pick 6. Det @ TB...early pick 6 defelcted off a receiver, then a late TD on a 4th and goal with a superb catch but poor D not to shove him out. ** Minni @ SD pushed...Kaeding injures himself on the opening KO, so SD avoid kicking FG's early. Missed a 4th down opp, and then threw a pick where I suspect they were forcing the ball more than necessary on 3rd on longish. Seattle hit a long pass with under 5 mins to go after not looking like it all game...then the proceeding KO gets returned and also a late punt to score 21 points in the last 4:30...to have 50 points scored in a game with about 450 yards of total offense!! :puke [** And, on a serious note...17 of Tampa's points came from either the D, or in the last 2 mins of each half where Det were really sagging back in a very soft zone... ...suspect they could be a solid go-against this week. :ok ] NE @ Miami under 46.5 (1.93 @ Pinnacle) I'm just not convinced NE can score points like last year. It took them 25 mins to score a TD v. Detroit in their 'real' pre-season game...forget the first 2 v. reserves of 2 poor D's anyway... ...Miami will be quite good on defense this year I suspect and I think Brady might struggle with his receivers. (Except Welker of course ;) ) 'Fins have struggled to score against NE recently tho...av'd just over 14 ppg in their last 4, not convinced that Bush can carry the load...or Henne for that matter. I think this one pulls up around the 45 mark. :cheers

[meatman]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. Really excellent night for me with 7/8 winners, with all of them coming in at a canter. Only Moreno let me down, the Broncs lost faith in him after an early fumble . Still, I wont complain too much and take a profit of +16 units out of tonight. Well done Blackcrow on your two winners tonight :ok @ Taza, really unlucky this week mate, hopefully you'll get a few breaks next weekend :ok

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. New England -9.5 @ 2.21 :D Oakland -2.5 @ 2.60 :D Record: 4-5 (+0.03) Nice double hit on MNF. Thanks meatman :cheers. Great night for you especially with both QBs slinging it around in the Miami - NE game. Easy winners there. :clap Also SS well done on your weekend :clap Hopefully more winners to come from everybody next weekend. :ok

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. Well played both of you. Had a good look at the Brady Over too. Anyway, I looked back at last years Week 1 results, and I lost all my bets too, and overall I had a good year. I kept my stakes lower for Week 1 this year, so no big loss fortunately. Roll on Week 2.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. Outstanding stuff Meatman :clap and well done blackcrow too, turned it around to show a profit :ok Is it just me being biased, or do the Pats look pretty bloody handy :) Roll on next week...

[trips]

Re: NFL Wk. 1.

Outstanding stuff Meatman :clap and well done blackcrow too, turned it around to show a profit :ok Is it just me being biased, or do the Pats look pretty bloody handy :) Roll on next week...

I thought Brady was very sharp and he impressed with a lot of very quick passes dissecting Miami but i wouldn't get too carried away yet. Miami defence gave him so much time he could have done a jig before he threw the ball.Bit of both i think New England looked very strong in all areas but Miami looked very bad.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Wk. 1. .