St Leger

[mileni4uk]

Re: St Leger

Well he certainly should. I'm sticking with Workforce though. Just hope he doesn't hang.

Who's riding him? Hughsie?

[BKI Punter]

Re: St Leger You've got the great price on Sarafina Milen! Couldn't bring myself to back her at the prices available now. I'm on Nathaniel at 8/1 (backed after the King George). Hoping he does the business, still think he's a fair price at 6/1. Looks a really poor Arc.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

Who's riding him? Hughsie?

Last I read is they were leaving it open for Moore to return if he wins the race against time. Not sure if that's changed. As long as it's not a Frenchman :lol

[mileni4uk]

Re: St Leger

You've got the great price on Sarafina Milen! Couldn't bring myself to back her at the prices available now. I'm on Nathaniel at 8/1 (backed after the King George). Hoping he does the business' date=' still think he's a fair price at 6/1. Looks a really poor Arc.[/quote'] Yea, I had a lot of 8-9 on the exchanges when I heard the Pour Moi news. Will probably tip the 6/1 and will go with Sarafina and him against the field. Soumillon, Barzalona and Guyon are good. Probably becase they are still young and hungry.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

Yea, I had a lot of 8-9 on the exchanges when I heard the Pour Moi news. Will probably tip the 6/1 and will go with Sarafina and him against the field. Soumillon, Barzalona and Guyon are good. Probably becase they are still young and hungry.

The first two have given poor rides on a couple I've backed this year :lol Soumillon gave Seville a bizarre ride at Epsom and Barzalona got hammered by Hollinshead for not following instructions on Mount Hollow :lol Tongue in cheek really, though I think there will be a number of good jockeys queuing up to ride him if Moore can't.

[mileni4uk]

Re: St Leger Seville is a dog, I wouldn't blame him even if he drops him out 40L off the pace. That might be the only way to win with him. Not following Hollinshead instructions is usually a sign of a good jockey. I'm not a jockey, but I know I shouldn't listen to the man :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

Seville is a dog, I wouldn't blame him even if he drops him out 40L off the pace. That might be the only way to win with him. Not following Hollinshead instructions is usually a sign of a good jockey. I'm not a jockey, but I know I shouldn't listen to the man :lol

He did give the Hollinshead runner a shocker to be fair. He took it up with 3f to run when he needs to come late :lol And Seville, yep, that's true, but he never had any chance from right out the back at Epsom, even if he was to handle the track. Sarafina an obvious chance too. Should be interesting. Looks fairly open to me with the first few in the market.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: St Leger I like my price on Fabre's runner :hope ...

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa Arc De Triomphe (Oct 4th 2011) - Meandre - 0.1pt win @ 145 avg & 0.4pt place @ 60 Put up a very taking performance to win the Prix De L'Avre at the back end of May, getting no kind of a run through on the inside, having to be snatched up and taken round the back of the field, before mowing them all down to win going away. Not guaranteed to be routed to the Arc, but that is factored into the price of course. Likely to be running in the Prix Du Lys this coming weekend, and if winning there then likely he'll be trading around 40-50/1 for the Arc come Monday.

[Aidymac]

Re: St Leger

I just think it made it a requirement that your horse stays further than the trip. I know it was quick ground but they went flat out with a headwind. The winner is very much a top-class stayer, but I just have an inkling it wouldn't be clear-cut whatsoever if they didn't go a breakneck pace - especially with the wind conditions. Most races aren't run like that so even if some people might call it stupid, I'd probably side with Sea Moon if the two met again over the same trip. Could be wrong but I don't think it's an outrageous opinion.

Broke the track record into a head-wind, best horse won, if he ran the same time if this race was run ten more times, he would hack up every single time, no argument! As for Sea Moon, the race was over before he got going, even if he was closer to the pace and was givena better ride he still would not have troubled the winner

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: St Leger I wonder when the penny will drop with Mr Stoute to give Paul Hanagan a crack at the top level. I could be wrong but has Olivier Peslier not now had 21 rides this season and not winning a single race ?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

Broke the track record into a head-wind' date=' best horse won, if he ran the same time if this race was run ten more times, he would hack up every single time, no argument! [/quote'] Well that's stating the obvious isn't it? He only ran that time because of the ridiculous pace they went. Headwind yes, but I don't think many staying races are run at that speed. I've not once said the best horse didn't win today. The best horse for today's conditions won. No question. All I'm saying is if it was less of a test (ie. Not going a ridiculous gallop into a headwind) the result might have been different and therefore the form might not be held up if they met again. And I'm not saying going a slow pace, just an even one.

[Aidymac]

Re: St Leger

Well that's stating the obvious isn't it? He only ran that time because of the ridiculous pace they went. Headwind yes, but I don't think many staying races are run at that speed. I've not once said the best horse didn't win today. The best horse for today's conditions won. No question. All I'm saying is if it was less of a test (ie. Not going a ridiculous gallop into a headwind) the result might have been different and therefore the form might not be held up if they met again. And I'm not saying going a slow pace, just an even one.

No, he ran that time because he is a very classy animal that put his rivals to sleep! It was a true run race... To say he wouldnt have won because of the pace of the race is unfair, afterall Sea Moon should have benefited from the frantic pace of the horses in front, yet he didnt pick up that well at all... Census is an out and out stayer, with the pace that was up front today he was staying on at the finish, Brown Panther was staying on really well, yet the winner was flying to the line hands and heels... Very unfair on the winner i think you are and he put Sea Moon to bed, if its re-run i think Masked Marvel wins again

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

No, he ran that time because he is a very classy animal that put his rivals to sleep! It was a true run race... To say he wouldnt have won because of the pace of the race is unfair, afterall Sea Moon should have benefited from the frantic pace of the horses in front, yet he didnt pick up that well at all... Census is an out and out stayer, with the pace that was up front today he was staying on at the finish, Brown Panther was staying on really well, yet the winner was flying to the line hands and heels... Very unfair on the winner i think you are and he put Sea Moon to bed, if its re-run i think Masked Marvel wins again

I think people are seriously exaggerating what I'm saying. I'm not being unfair to the winner whatsoever. I'm simply giving my opinion that the form might not hold up. Not once have I said he didn't deserve to win, nor that he won very well. I'm not saying he's not the best horse in the race. That's a saying I don't particularly like because unless they've been terribly unlucky in running, the best horse for the conditions wins the race. Simply I feel, yet again only my opinion, he had conditions more to suit than some of his rivals. The staying nature of the race (looks a stronger stayer than some), the ground conditions (Sea Moon, Brown Panther and Census arguably don't want it so quick - the latter two's connections have come out and said that). 1m6f on good ground at an even tempo and I wouldn't be surprised if any of those three turned the form around. Not saying they will, or they were unlucky at all, but that's my initial reaction. I don't expect people to agree with me but what's the fun in everyone sharing a consensus...

[Aidymac]

Re: St Leger

I think people are seriously exaggerating what I'm saying. I'm not being unfair to the winner whatsoever. I'm simply giving my opinion that the form might not hold up. Not once have I said he didn't deserve to win, nor that he won very well. I'm not saying he's not the best horse in the race. That's a saying I don't particularly like because unless they've been terribly unlucky in running, the best horse for the conditions wins the race. Simply I feel, yet again only my opinion, he had conditions more to suit than some of his rivals. The staying nature of the race (looks a stronger stayer than some), the ground conditions (Sea Moon, Brown Panther and Census arguably don't want it so quick - the latter two's connections have come out and said that). 1m6f on good ground at an even tempo and I wouldn't be surprised if any of those three turned the form around. Not saying they will, or they were unlucky at all, but that's my initial reaction. I don't expect people to agree with me but what's the fun in everyone sharing a consensus...

Sea Moon has won on good ground and the ground was good enough when it hosed up two starts ago... I dont buy into the excuse that the ground was too good for Census as he won his previous race very well at Newbury on good ground, as a matter all of its wins have been on good or good to firm... Brown Panther has won on good to firm twice of its 3 wins!! So i aint buying into the ground factor. To my eyes, Masked Marvel broke the track record, no matter what the conditions that would not have altered 1st place today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

Sea Moon has won on good ground and the ground was good enough when it hosed up two starts ago... I dont buy into the excuse that the ground was too good for Census as he won his previous race very well at Newbury on good ground' date=' as a matter all of its wins have been on good or good to firm... Brown Panther has won on good to firm twice of its 3 wins!! So i aint buying into the ground factor. To my eyes, Masked Marvel broke the track record, no matter what the conditions that would not have altered 1st place today.[/quote'] Only going on what the jockeys said and I'd trust them over us punters. Swift Alhaarth broke the track record in the last race as well. No point in debating it anyway. We'll never know. And even if they did and MM was beaten, people would find excuses for him and say he'd win if they met again etc etc. That's racing!

[stewartd14]

Re: St Leger We know that with a fast run (true) race, Masked Marvel won. I am confident that with an even pace, Masked Marvel would still have won. With a slow pace, we may well have seen a different result, but races run at a slow pace throw up false results. I get what your saying Rupert, but personally I believe a strongly run race like today's produces a true result to identify the best horse. If the placing's were reversed in a slow run event in the future, I would trust the Leger form over the slow run event.

[Aidymac]

Re: St Leger

Only going on what the jockeys said and I'd trust them over us punters. Swift Alhaarth broke the track record in the last race as well. No point in debating it anyway. We'll never know. And even if they did and MM was beaten, people would find excuses for him and say he'd win if they met again etc etc. That's racing!

So your saying the connections of Brown Panther are disappointed with their run in 2nd and blame the ground for not winning the race? I cant see how they wouldnt be over the moon with Brown Panthers run... There is no point debating it, its a vicious circle!

[Aidymac]

Re: St Leger

We know that with a fast run (true) race, Masked Marvel won. I am confident that with an even pace, Masked Marvel would still have won. With a slow pace, we may well have seen a different result, but races run at a slow pace throw up false results. I get what your saying Rupert, but personally I believe a strongly run race like today's produces a true result to identify the best horse. If the placing's were reversed in a slow run event in the future, I would trust the Leger form over the slow run event.

Agreed!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

We know that with a fast run (true) race, Masked Marvel won. I am confident that with an even pace, Masked Marvel would still have won. With a slow pace, we may well have seen a different result, but races run at a slow pace throw up false results. I get what your saying Rupert, but personally I believe a strongly run race like today's produces a true result to identify the best horse. If the placing's were reversed in a slow run event in the future, I would trust the Leger form over the slow run event.

My logic is essentially that: People talk about slowly run races turning into sprints not suiting horses and creating odd results/unreliable form. So is there not a case for races run at a very quick pace, making horses go very quick throughout. Is there not a possibility this doesn't suit horses and therefore can create odd results that doesn't stand up? Essentially I think what I'm trying to say is, more races are run slowly or at an even pace than a furious one over long distances. Because today's conditions are unlikely to be replicated in the future, the form might not work out in a similar way to how a slow race might not. I don't know and I'm not trying to suggest I do. I'm speculating using logic that in my head (even if I may be alone), does make some sense.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

So your saying the connections of Brown Panther are disappointed with their run in 2nd and blame the ground for not winning the race? I cant see how they wouldnt be over the moon with Brown Panthers run... There is no point debating it, its a vicious circle!

Again, no I didn't say that! They were delighted with the run, but they would obviously have thought they would have been closer with different conditions.

[Aidymac]

Re: St Leger

Again' date=' no I didn't say that! They were delighted with the run, but they would obviously have thought they would have been closer with different conditions.[/quote'] :lol Well then they are in cuckoo-land!

[stewartd14]

Re: St Leger

My logic is essentially that: People talk about slowly run races turning into sprints not suiting horses and creating odd results/unreliable form. So is there not a case for races run at a very quick pace, making horses go very quick throughout. Is there not a possibility this doesn't suit horses and therefore can create odd results that doesn't stand up? Essentially I think what I'm trying to say is, more races are run slowly or at an even pace than a furious one over long distances. Because today's conditions are unlikely to be replicated in the future, the form might not work out in a similar way to how a slow race might not. I don't know and I'm not trying to suggest I do. I'm speculating using logic that in my head (even if I may be alone), does make some sense.

The only reason it wouldn't suit horses is because they are not good enough. It was the truest test today, and the best came out on top. I see exactly what your saying, and it is possible that in a slow run race the best horse (Masked Marvel) may not come out on top. However, I have an incline he may even be good enough to overcome a slow pace.

[stewartd14]

Re: St Leger On another note, does anyone think Brown Panther could get closer, or maybe even beat Masked Marvel if they met in the Ascot Gold Cup ? I have a feeling that could be a race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: St Leger

The only reason it wouldn't suit horses is because they are not good enough. It was the truest test today, and the best came out on top. I see exactly what your saying, and it is possible that in a slow run race the best horse (Masked Marvel) may not come out on top. However, I have an incline he may even be good enough to overcome a slow pace.

Fair enough. Thanks for your insight.

[mileni4uk]

Re: St Leger

On another note, does anyone think Brown Panther could get closer, or maybe even beat Masked Marvel if they met in the Ascot Gold Cup ? I have a feeling that could be a race.

I'm not sure 2m+ is even on the agenda for MM. Buick and Gosden seemed keen to even drop him to 1m4f, because he has so much speed. He's just an improved classy horse and like with Nathaniel they didn't know how good he actually is.

[torn up slip]

Re: St Leger

On another note, does anyone think Brown Panther could get closer, or maybe even beat Masked Marvel if they met in the Ascot Gold Cup ? I have a feeling that could be a race.

Would be an interesting race for sure. Neither of them were stopping at the line and Sea Moon was making up ground hand over fist as well so I dont see any reason why the 3 shouldn't meet in the GC next year providing all are kept in training. The tactics of Gosden in this were superb though. MM was always thought of as a stayer, Godolphin planted a pacesetter to try and expose any limitations in Sea Moon's un tested stamina and Gosden produced pocket aces with Buthelezi imo. Brilliant race and even though I got beat into 2nd full credit to the Gosden and Buick. The boy is a serious talent and I hope he starts to get the chances he deserves on the world stage. He's got champion jockey written all over him in the next couple of years given the right opportunities.

[mileni4uk]

Re: St Leger

He's got champion jockey written all over him in the next couple of years given the right opportunities.

Think he has an issue with the weight tho. He was seriously worried at the end of last year and it affected him at the beginning of this season, he was riding very badly. He can't do low weight and De Sousa and Hanagan will always win many in the handicaps. Not sure if Buick sorted his weight, but his lowest currently is a lot lot higher than the other top jockeys. That's the reason he'd never be a champion. For me he is the best jockey in England however. Undisputed.

[torn up slip]

Re: St Leger

Think he has an issue with the weight tho. He was seriously worried at the end of last year and it affected him at the beginning of this season, he was riding very badly. He can't do low weight and De Sousa and Hanagan will always win many in the handicaps. Not sure if Buick sorted his weight, but his lowest currently is a lot lot higher than the other top jockeys. That's the reason he'd never be a champion. For me he is the best jockey in England however. Undisputed.

Not something id ever really given a lot of thought to tbh (moreso the fool am I) but yeah I could see that being an issue. He does appear to be one of those lads who could balloon just by walking past a mcdonalds as he's got one of those tubby faces. The talent is undoutedly there though as you say. Much like Phillip Makin imo, but I digress.

[mileni4uk]

Re: St Leger

The talent is undoutedly there though as you say. Much like Phillip Makin imo' date=' but I digress.[/quote'] That's why I rant at Jamie and Ryan. Because jockeys like Buick and Makin are class apart and nobody talks about them. Phil especially is so underrated.

[torn up slip]

Re: St Leger

That's why I rant at Jamie and Ryan. Because jockeys like Buick and Makin are class apart and nobody talks about them. Phil especially is so underrated.

Makin is the absolute nuts. A perfect example was on Lightning Cloud at Doncaster on Wednesday. Dont know if you saw the race or not but he gave it one of those rides only the lads with brains know how to produce. Came weaving through a massive field to get the horse in front with loads underneath him. As soon as he got there though the horse began to hang sharply left with a furlong or so to go. Rather than panicking and trying to correct it he let it hang over to the far rail which probably enabled him to cling on to the race. Admittedly he didn't react straight away but the very fact he had the ultimate sense to allow the horse onto the rail tells you he's got a brain as well fantastic hands. One of the hardest working lads as well.