Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Netherlands vs San Marino' date= both teams to score- NO. 1.3 @ Bwin IMO this is even better value than the above bet, even though the odds are smaller. San Marino scored in only 3 of their last 32. The last time they scored was about 4 years ago. There is a chance that Holland's defence will go to sleep and that they will score, but the bet has to be taken along the principles of value betting. 1.3 odds represent a 76.9% chance of BTTS- no, whereas San Marino have only scored in 10% of their last 32 games, which effectively represents a 90% chance of the bet winning. Considering Holland are better than almost all of the sides San Marino faced in that time (they scored against Slovakia, Ireland and Wales, for instance), and their goal ratio appears to be getting worse, you're looking at a 92-95% chance of the bet winning, so if I was an odds compiler I would have priced this under 1.1. Stake 10/10.

FT: 11-0 I saw a bit of the game and you couldn't really see SM scoring.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Good call on that I think - the Faroes have only lost by more than 2 goals twice in the last ten home games. It seems likely that they won't lose by more than 2 goals here' date=' but Bet 365 are offering Faroes +2.5 @ 2.38 - which looks good value I think.[/quote'] (Re. Faroes v Italy) FT: 0-1 I saw a bit of the game, and although there was a class difference, it was hard to see Italy scoring a hatful (like Holland v San Marino)

[slizorn]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September 5 bets placed today, 2 won 1 voided and 2 lost. Ended up with more or less no profit/loss. Well done to all in profit! :clap:clap:clap

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

FT: 11-0 I saw a bit of the game and you couldn't really see SM scoring.

They had one shot, but it was actually a really good effort. If I'd been on a Dutch clean sheet my heart would of been in my mouth.

[pg_yid]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Netherlands vs San Marino' date= both teams to score- NO. 1.3 @ Bwin IMO this is even better value than the above bet, even though the odds are smaller. San Marino scored in only 3 of their last 32. The last time they scored was about 4 years ago. There is a chance that Holland's defence will go to sleep and that they will score, but the bet has to be taken along the principles of value betting. 1.3 odds represent a 76.9% chance of BTTS- no, whereas San Marino have only scored in 10% of their last 32 games, which effectively represents a 90% chance of the bet winning. Considering Holland are better than almost all of the sides San Marino faced in that time (they scored against Slovakia, Ireland and Wales, for instance), and their goal ratio appears to be getting worse, you're looking at a 92-95% chance of the bet winning, so if I was an odds compiler I would have priced this under 1.1. Stake 10/10.

Thankfully I was watching England at the time of this game, so I missed the great San Marino shot people are talking about! It's too stressful to watch games when you've got one side to keep a clean sheet or equivalent, even if it's San Marino. My other bet won as well, (under 2.5 in Lux v Romania) so a good day for me.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

They had one shot' date=' but it was actually a really good effort. If I'd been on a Dutch clean sheet my heart would of been in my mouth.[/quote'] OK - thanks for the info. When there's such a huge class gap, the minnows do still get chances. I don't like clean sheet bets, as they often seem to go wrong. The better side often seem to switch off and concede goals, especially when they have a good lead and bet complacent. But on this occasion, looking at San Marino's abysmal record of scoring in away games, I thought the odds of 1.3 were too good to turn down (no goals scored in the last 10 away games) ... http://www.soccerway.com/teams/san-marino/san-marino/ If I had been offering odds on San Marino scoring, I would have given around 1.05, so I thought 1.3 offered good value.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Sport Football (Internationals) Event Bulgaria vs England Selection Under 10.0 Asian Total Corners Strength 10/10 Date 02/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.80 Reasoning Looking at England's last 5 games, all of them have ended Under 10.5 Corners. Each of their 5 games have averaged about 7 corners per game. With these decent odds on offer and the fact that we get our stake back if it ends with exactly 10 corners, I am more than happy to be backing this bet. Hopefully this trend continues for this match as well.

Super bet Slizorn :ok FT: 0-3, corners 2-4 http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/matches/season=2012/round=15171/match=2002285/postmatch/statistics/index.html I didn't see the game, but I'm guessing that England were much the better side, and kept the ball, denying Bulgaria the chance to attack and get a lot of corners. That might explain the low corner count.

[mdinadude333]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

FT: 11-0 Bet was not quite 'printing money' - there were no guarantees. But it was very good value :ok

True - but that's true with every bet I assume. I should hv staked more on it. Whoever first suggested the Faroe Islands win with a handicap - kudos - made a very decent profit on it... Any thoughts on the next games/

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

True - but that's true with every bet I assume. I should hv staked more on it.

It's easy in hindsight though, isn't it ;)

[ecoli]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

DOUBLE- ENGLAND TO BEAT BULGARIA AND GERMANY TO BEAT AUSTRIA@ 1.92. England have a point to prove after the dissapointing draw with the Swiss. Rooney and Young are in top form and I think this should be a comfortable victory. Germany, who will probably win the tournament, will have no problem beating Austria.

Like shelling peas! :beer

[Mustafa]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Unfortunately the price has dropped a lot, but I will still back them with small stakes. Faroe Islands +2.5 @ 2.02 (2 units) Bet365

My only winning bet today. Ended a day in a small loss.

[spkutano]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September Scotland - Czech Rep. Pick: Over 2.5 goals Probable starting eleven: Scotland: McGregor; Hutton, Caldwell, Berra, Bardsley; Adam; Morrison, Brown, Fletcher, Naismith; Miller Czech Republic: Drobny; Pospech, Sivok, Hubnik, Kadlec; Rosicky, Jiracek, Hubschman, Plasil; Kolar, Baros This is a very important match for Scotland. They are five points behind second placed Czech Republic and a victory here will bring them very close. Even more as Czech Republic have one game more. Scotland coach Craig Levein has almost all players available. Even more, he has the captain Darren Fletcher back. The only absence is Iain Turner, but I think that's not too important. On contrary, the situation in Czech squad is much more complicated. The first goalkeeper Petr Cech is sidelined with an injury and I rate his absence as very important. I expect an efficient match at Hampden Park in Glasgow. Scotland needs a victory, they must attack from the beginning. They have to take some advantage from the fact that the guests will be missing the goalkeeper Petr Cech. It is expected Jan Lastuvka of Hamburg or Jaroslav Drobny of Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk to make the debut as one of them will replace Petr Cech between the sticks. I am sure they are solid, but still, the absence of Cech is a handicap. On other side Czech Republic is a strong team, with experienced players in attack. The former Liverpool striker Baros is very dangerous. Because of that I expect at least three goals in Glasgow.

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Scotland Draw No Bet @ 1.83 (Stan James) Scotland had a bad start to their campaign, but this will be their first competitive game in nearly a year, and in that time they've improved, a good win against Denmark in their last outing the highpoint. The Czech's aren't the side of days gone by, and the best result I see for them would be a draw, but hopefully the Scots can nick it.

Gonna backtrack on this one! LAY Scotland @ 2.76 (1.57) Scots have improved, I feel, but I reckon a win may just be beyond 'em. No Nedved's or Poborsky's for the Czech's, but they gave the Spanish a good game last time out, and may surprise here.

[slizorn]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Super bet Slizorn :ok FT: 0-3, corners 2-4 http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/matches/season=2012/round=15171/match=2002285/postmatch/statistics/index.html I didn't see the game, but I'm guessing that England were much the better side, and kept the ball, denying Bulgaria the chance to attack and get a lot of corners. That might explain the low corner count.

Thanks :) I have to place maximum bets when trying to win that competition on sports-punter. And perhaps that is not a fair reflection of my confidence in the varying bets that I placed. I will mention the actual stakes that I place myself on these bets next time around and perhaps that will be a better reflection. Will be looking to tackle the same corner line in England's next match as well. :ok

[Delahicka]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Republic of Ireland v Slovakia. Normally I don't go near Ireland because I don't like the way they play' date= especially against teams that are not regarded big nations. Ireland will play their hearts out against the likes France and Italy but when it comes to lesser nations (especially at home) they seem to mess up a lot, but this time I have faith in the Bhoys in Green. Ireland have had a fantasic 2011, winning the Nations Cup (ok only mickey mouse) beating Scotland along the way, we beat Italy 2-0 in a friendly and also beat Macedonia home and away in the qualifiers to put us on top of the group. These 2 set of matches now are massive for us, taking 1 game at a time, Ireland we be looking for 3 points out of the 1st game. For the majority of the Irish team the pain of Paris 2 years ago is still there ( not to mention the fans) and is huge motivation for the lads. Shay has kept 4 clean sheets in a row, O'Shea will partner Richard Dunne at centre half. Midfield we have Glen Whelhan and Keith Andrews anchoring the midfield while Duff and Mcgeedy will add support to our strikers. Kevin Doyle is on the bench so that's an indication of how strong the forward line is at the mo. The man keeping him out is West Broms Shane Long, he's had a good start to his season and looks quite a handful. Keano of course completes the lineup and will be looking for his 52nd international goal. The Slovaks have 2 doubts for the match. Their captain , Napolis Hamsik and also striker Robert Vittek. Ireland Win evens @ Paddys Correct Score 2-0 7/1 @ Paddys GL to everyone who follows

Garbage. Pure Shite

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Thanks :) I have to place maximum bets when trying to win that competition on sports-punter. And perhaps that is not a fair reflection of my confidence in the varying bets that I placed. I will mention the actual stakes that I place myself on these bets next time around and perhaps that will be a better reflection. Will be looking to tackle the same corner line in England's next match as well. :ok

The impressive thing about the corners bet was the margin by which it won. The bet was under 10 asian corners at odds of 1.8, and the corner count was 6 (2-4).

[Capricorno]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Bosnia - Asian Handicap 0 @2.12 (Pinny) Much stronger team. Also Dzeko and Pjanic are in fine form, even without injured captain Spahic their quality is way above Belarus. I believe the Bosnian team has a far higher quality squad and will be pushing for 3 points and they totally outplayed greece with 60-40% posession in their last game without a full strength squad. This also gives me draw cover

EASY WIN.. could have made it 0-3 or 0-4 towards the end :) Sorry meant to say Ibisevic is out, not Spahic. Didn't matter as without Hleb brothers Belarus lacked any creativity.

[pilky01]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September I personally can't see how anyone could describe the Czechs as technically superior to Scotland. Perhaps in the days of Poborsky and Nedved yes, but now? I'd argue that Charlie Adam is more technically gifted than any Czech player in that squad. Darren Fletcher too perhaps. Scotland's lineup will consist of mostly English Premier League players whereas the Czechs, the woeful Rosicky aside, have to call on players who are playing at a decidedly lower level. Baros can be a threat but Scotland play a cautious style and have played far better sides and kept far better strikers quiet. Fletcher is adept at doing the dirty work in midfield which should give Adam a chance to flourish. Set pieces will also play a big part for Scotland with Adam's deliveries. It's a shame Levein is so afraid of being a bit more ambitious, I think a 4-4-2 here would result in a comfortable Scotland win, but as it is I think they'll just edge out the Czechs. Scotland @ 6/4. Bet365.

[archie7]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September Taking Scotland @ 2.70(Pin) 3/10stakes for me. A decent price for a team playing on home ground and could very much do with a win. On the whole, the Czechs are a superior team for me. They have much better individual players and man for man probably edge Scotland. However, the home team do have the fans for this game and at home, Scotland are a much stronger team than they are away. And with Levein, they have a decent manager who knows how to give his team a good chance of winning.

[SpiritOf67]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September Scotland v Czech Republic - Scotland @ 2.78 Betfair I'm on the Scots today, I think 2.78 with Betfair is a good price at Hampden against a Czech side lacking the quality of their predecessors. Scotland have a promising team at the moment, a mixture of mostly Premiership players and the better players in the SPL. Guys like Charlie Adam and Kenny miller are in the best form of their career. I watched the game in Prague and Scotland were far too cautious, wasn't overly impressed by the Czechs and Scotland beat the same team in a friendly at Hampden in Leveins first game. 3pm ko at Hampden will make for a very good atmosphere and with it being a must win game I think Scotland will start at a high tempo. Scotland also have decent options from the bench in Stephen Fletcher and Goodwillie should they need a goal. Draw no bet at just under evens is probably a safer bet but Scotland really need the three points to keep in the hunt for qualification so I'll take the plunge as I see the home side edging this in front of a rowdy home crowd.

[nori]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September anyone could please send me a link for SCOTLAND MATCH PLZ FELLAS

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September How Scotland are winning that one :lol

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Gonna backtrack on this one! LAY Scotland @ 2.76 (1.57) Scots have improved, I feel, but I reckon a win may just be beyond 'em. No Nedved's or Poborsky's for the Czech's, but they gave the Spanish a good game last time out, and may surprise here.

Disgraceful penalty award, and then to not give a stonewall. I must of been due to some penalty luck, after Armenia yesterday :p

[Aidymac]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Are you kidding me? Charlie Adam more technically gifted than any Czech player? :D He's a good hard working professional who can deliver a decent set piece. He's not particularly blessed with an abundance of technical ability. And I think you'll see today he's certainly not even close to being more technically gifted than anyone in the Czech team today. The Czech's may not be as strong as they have been in the past, but they are more than capable of passing Scotland off the pitch this afternoon. 19/10 is a very fair price on the Czech's walking away with the 3 points. They are the better team pure and simple.

Yip, the Czechs were technically sublime! :lol

[Lennox]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Scotland v Czech Republic: Scotland (0AH) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (4/10)

Scotland 2-2 Czech Rep - PUSH Don't normally get too emotionally attached even with my own teams, but I'm in a rage after that. Czechs deserved something from the game, but to resort to cheating to get it ... the lad Jan Rezak should be banned for life for that dive, so should the ref Kevin Blom for giving the penalty. Absolute disgrace to the sport, the pair of them.

[nori]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September am fuming with that penallty award, what a dive from that fu**** player, and the ref wasnt even near to it and awarded a penallty, that cost me a lot, and i agree with Lennox, that bastard of a player should be banned for life so woudl the ref, and he wouldnt award a penallty for the challenge on Berra and he cautioned him Berra, there was a challenge grrrr :@

[pilky01]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Are you kidding me? Charlie Adam more technically gifted than any Czech player? :D He's a good hard working professional who can deliver a decent set piece. He's not particularly blessed with an abundance of technical ability. And I think you'll see today he's certainly not even close to being more technically gifted than anyone in the Czech team today. The Czech's may not be as strong as they have been in the past, but they are more than capable of passing Scotland off the pitch this afternoon. 19/10 is a very fair price on the Czech's walking away with the 3 points. They are the better team pure and simple.

Adam plays for a (probably) top 4 Premier League side. Why did they sign him? Because he works hard? There are a lot of players who work hard. He's one of the best passers in the league. Passing is a technical ability. I'd make a more accurate comparison but my TV doesn't pick up the Gambrinus Liga channel.

[Aidymac]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Adam plays for a (probably) top 4 Premier League side. Why did they sign him? Because he works hard? There are a lot of players who work hard. He's one of the best passers in the league. Passing is a technical ability. I'd make a more accurate comparison but my TV doesn't pick up the Gambrinus Liga channel.

I am a United fan so i would not give a Liverpool player credit unless it was due! I would have been happy if Fergue had bought Adam. He "is" in my opinion the best passer in the league and his set-pieces are brilliant, free kicks and corners are extremely dangerous. He works hard and gets on the ball, always looking for the ball, and seldom misplaces a pass! He is a technically very gifted player!

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Russia V Macedonia - Russia -1.5 AH Fancy Russia for a comfortable win here. The hosts know how important 3 points is here with Ireland and Slovakia tied with them on 13 pts, and Ireland visiting Moscow on Tuesday. Russia are not the team they were in the last Euros, but they continue to have an impressive home record. In the last 2 qualifying campaigns, they have won 6 of 8. The 2 loses were 1-0 reverses to Germany and when they were mugged by Slovakia in a game they dominated. In that sequence they have covered a one goal handicap against the likes of Finland, Armenia & Azerbajan - all in or around Macedonia in the fifa rankings. Russia will miss keeper Akinveef, and defender Ignashevich, but I think they have enough quality to replace these. Macedonia have improved over the last few years, but their away record is poor. Ireland have beaten them home and away recently. In Dublin, Ireland raced into a 2-0 lead and the visitors looked very average. It was more down to Trappatoni's negative approach that allowed Macedonia back into the game. Macedonia only have 4 pts to show from 6 games this campaign, 3 of which came away against minnows Andorra. That away win is their only points in 7 competitive away games across the last 2 qualifying campaigns. This is John Tosack's first game in charge, and he has already stated that he will be using the remaining group games to have a look at any potential squad members with an eye on World Cup 2014 qualifying. He has omitted several regulars from his squad as a result. Bet365 have this priced up at 1.65, and other books have the corresponding EH -1 between 1.61 & 1.8. So the 1.91 with VC has made me bite. 3pts Russia -1.5 AH @1.91 Victor Chandler :hope

FT 1-0 Bet lost. :sad By all accounts Russia were fairly poor. Hopefully they will be the same on Tuesday against Ireland

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September

Norway V Iceland - Iceland under 0.5 team goals Another tight group here, and the home team badly need the 3 points. Norway are tied on 10 pts with Denmark and Portugal. In their 2 home games to date they have a 1-0 win over Portugal (admittedly struggling at the time) and a 1-1 draw with Denmark. They are generally steady rather than spectacular, and in their last 13 competitive games across 2 qualifying campaigns, have only lost to Holland (twice). They have also only conceded more than one goal in 2 of those 13. John Arne Risse is a injury doubt, but I don;t think that is such a bad thing as he is better going forward than defending. In their 2 aways, Iceland could only muster 3 attempts on goal against Denmark (lost 1-0), and just the 2 on target against Cyprus (drew 0-0). In both games they went for containment, and in fairness were only undone by Denmark by an injury time. They have just 2 goals, and 10 attempts on target, in their 5 games to date. They have lost 6 of their last competitive aways. Iceland also have manager issues, in that coach Ólafur Jóhannesson's contract has not been renewed, and he will leave at the end of this qualifying campaign. Not sure that this will be great motivation for the team, and there have been a number of withdrawals. This includes striker Heidar Helguson of QPR, who scored in their 1-2 reverse to Norway last Sept. Norway haven't got a great record against Iceland, but there is enough here to make me think they can at least not concede. 3pts Iceland Team Goals under 0.5 @1.91 - Sporting Bet :hope

FT 1-0 Bet won :cigar