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Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12


Spankyf

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Hey folks. I'll be posting tips on the 'new' Magners League, the RaboDirect Pro 12 The season begins this week on Friday under the shadow of the upcoming World Cup. I will be watching the games throughout the season and hope to be giving out regular and successful tips on it. There are twelve teams in this league, I’ll hopefully get around to previewing a few of them later in the week along with some thoughts on outrights. I’m posting the matches coming up this weekend and will edit this post afterwards when the odds are available.

Friday 2 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifOspreys v Leinster (19:05 BST) 1.9 23 2.25 101.17 %
maximize.gifUlster v Glasgow Warriors (19:05 BST) 1.2 29 6.5 102.17 %
maximize.gifEdinburgh v Cardiff Blues (19:30 BST) 2.4 23 1.66 106.01 %
Saturday 3 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifBenetton Treviso v Connacht (14:00 BST) 1.5 21 2.62 109.52 %
maximize.gifMunster v Newport Gwent Dragons (19:45 BST) 1.22 26 6 102.33 %
Sunday 4 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifScarlets v Aironi (16:00 BST) 1.08 36 7.5 108.42 %
If anyone’s got any thoughts on the season or the teams involved be sure to enlighten us :hope
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011 RaboDirect Pro 12 As with the Aviva Premiership thread guys, let's go with one thread for the whole league and if interest is high I'll split it up and we'll go with weekly threads. That way we can have 3 main threads including the WC rather than lots of threads with a few posts in which get lost around the World Cup :ok.

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011 RaboDirect Pro 12

As with the Aviva Premiership thread guys' date=' let's go with one thread for the whole league and if interest is high I'll split it up and we'll go with weekly threads. [/quote'] Sounds good Kev! In regards to the season this year, here’s my thoughts on the outrights (to win Grand Final, each way available too): Leinster @ 11/5 Betfair Ospreys @ 6/1 Betfair Cardiff @ 15/2 Betfred I have these in mind as I feel the odd’s will drop on the latter two as the season goes on. Cardiff is a more speculative bet but I think they’re good odd’s which can be layed as long as they’re sniffing about the playoffs towards the business end of the campaign. Ulster are great value @ 12/1 on Betfred too. I’m not taking Munster as the prices are too short (around 5/2). Yes, their form from last season can’t be ignored but I feel they’re still a team in transition and some young blood is needed. Looking forward to seeing Keatley in action for them and hope to finally see some new locks and props emerge. I think their squad will be under a lot of scrutiny during the WC to maintain the tag as favourites they’ll be given in most games. I don’t think they’ll retain the title this season. Leinster are a quality side of course and have brought in Cronin and Carr from Connacht to ensure they have the strongest squad of Irish internationals in the land. Hines is a loss but only as a lock as their back row is easily one of the best in Europe. Expecting a few things out of McFadden this season to look to make the 13 jersey his own (maybe for country too!). They have a big squad and I think they had the rotation policy perfect last season, managing to name a strong team sheet every week, no matter the occasion. My home province – Connacht – have reason to be cautiously excited about this season, despite the loss of the two afore mentioned Irish internationals. They’ve shrewdly picked up the services of Fetu’u Vainikolo, Henry Fa’afili and a couple of prospects among whom is Ospreys academy product Matthew Jarvis. The province compete in the Heineken Cup this season, have a bigger venue and are under the leadership of a very astute coach (though I would say that). I’m not sure about the players we’ve got at 10 but I think our pack will be more like the Connacht of old this season and I think we’ll be more competitive in this league. I don’t know as much about how the other teams have chopped and changed over the summer so i'll be keeping an eye on who has strengthened in the first few weeks. Previews of the squads will hopefully be made available during the week and I hope to peruse them and see what’s worth reporting back here. I will add that my outright picks are more from having observed the teams last season and having an idea of whose squads will be able to keep their performance up in this competition (particularly Cardiff – they’ll prioritize this and the Amlin if they don’t make the knock out stages of the ERC) whilst playing in other competitions too. I started puntin' last year on this league mostly and there's plenty of value to be had, especially at the start of a season with all the elite players on WC duty ;) Here's hoping i'll spot some opportunities! Edit: Just to mention that the markets are scant for this league at the time of writing so there will be more to come as they appear (hopefully)
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 As it’s the first round of games I won’t be betting heavily on the fixtures. Of all the games though, I do like the look of Ulster to win their opener against Glasgow.

betfred but going little conservatively take handicap somewhere won betting watch interest ospreys leinster. should feisty. leinster set backs looking forward seeing berquist play bookies spread province east. or welsh tomorrow fearless plenty see an early opportunity stake claim regular places. if was go it do home better wait how form goes season. probably get chance post again until night after games tips then.:hope>

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Ulster 28 - 14 Glasgow Pick won :p I took a -8.5 handicap around 7/10 but the -11 would have covered it. Surprised to see Leinster being hammered so badly by Ospreys 27 - 3. Haven't been able to watch the games live but it looks like a pretty clinical performance from the Welsh. I expect a big backlash against the Dragons next week. Couple of ties tomorrow i'll look at them tonight and will maybe post some thoughts later

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 After having watched both games, Ospreys look like a decent team, Ulster will be very good when they have all their players back from WC duty. Chris Henry played really well and would be in NZ were it not for Heaslip and O'Brien. Leinster looked a lot like Ireland now, guilty of trying too hard. Still it's only the first game of the season so can't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. After the win yesterday i'm going to take a more speculative bet on Connacht to beat Treviso. Treviso done relatively well last year in their Celtic leauge maiden campaign. They finished ahead of Glasgow and had a pretty decent home record, having beaten big guns Leinster and Munster at Stade di Monigo. I think they'll be severely weakened tomorrow with 10+ players at the WC. I really don't know a lot about the squad they'll be putting out but i'm putting my faith in Connacht. They'll be able to field close to their strongest team as they are only missing a couple. It's the first game of the season but with a few players with over 100 celtic league apps I think they have the experience to do this. The new half back pairing of Jarvis/Murphy apparently played well in an away friendly against Saracens last week so looking forward to seeing them in action. It may well be a very close game so hope the handicap will cover the straight win shot. So 0.5 units each on the dog: Connacht +6.0 @ 10/11 Connacht win @ 2/1 Both Betfred :hope

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12

Friday 9 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifGlasgow Warriors v Munster (19:30 BST) 2.37 21 1.66 106.87 %
maximize.gifLeinster v Newport Gwent Dragons (19:35 BST) 1.2 26 4.5 109.40 %
Saturday 10 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifAironi v Ulster (14:00 BST) 3.3 23 1.36 107.98 %
maximize.gifConnacht v Scarlets (15:15 BST) 1.61 21 2.37 108.77 %
maximize.gifOspreys v Edinburgh (18:30 BST) 1.12 34 6 108.50 %
Sunday 11 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifCardiff Blues v Benetton Treviso (15:45 BST) 1.09 41 9 105.29 %
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Won't be watching much Rabo Direct coverage over the weekend as there's some other mickey mouse tournament in NZ taking place... I will be throwing a couple of bets down though. At first glance, I expect Leinster, Ulster, Ospreys and Cardiff to win. Not going to touch the Connacht - Scarlets or Glasgow - Munster because the former might be an away win despite recent history, and Munster are rightly favourites but i'll see what sort of a reaction Glasgow will have after giving a spirited performance against Ulster. I reckon Leinster will beat the Dragons at home. Leinster had their second biggest loss of the the Celtic League since its inception last weekend, losing the first half and the match 27-3. I don't know how they didn't manage to cross the whitewash but they were knocking on the door in the second half for a good 15-20 mins. They have a new recruit in losing ITM cup captain Nathan White who should make the bench. The backline is rejigged a bit but most players retain their places. The Dragons fronted up fairly well in a boring enough affair last week in Musgrave park against Munster. They didn't really threaten too much against a Munster side that never hit 3rd gear. I think Leinster will wake up and remember that they are European champions and will get a solid win. Leinster -11 @ 10/11 Bet365 1 unit The second game i'm looking at is the Ospreys home tie against Edinburgh. Edinburgh are in transition and conceded a lot of points last game out. They have a new coach this season and will miss their regulars a lot as the young guns gel. Ospreys played well last week and have obviously targeted these two home games as two games to be won early on. I was very impressed with their showing, especially the defence, and I can't see Edinburgh getting too many chances here. Ospreys -15 @ 10/11 Bet365 1 unit Edit: also taking Tim Visser anytime tryscorer @ 11/4 Bet365 0.5 units This ain't a tip but for the hell of it: Ulster -7 Treviso +27 Leinster -11 Ospreys -15 Japan +44 Newcastle +16 USA +34 52/1 on Bet365 :hope

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12

Friday 16 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gif Ulster v Cardiff Blues (19:05 BST) 1.44 21 2.75 110.36 %
maximize.gif Edinburgh v Connacht (19:30 BST) 1.44 21 2.75 110.36 %
Saturday 17 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gif Benetton Treviso v Ospreys (14:00 BST) 2.75 21 1.44 110.36 %
maximize.gif Leinster v Glasgow Warriors (18:00 BST) 1.02 36 12 109.15 %
maximize.gif Newport Gwent Dragons v Aironi (18:30 BST) 1.14 26 5 111.35 %
maximize.gif Munster v Scarlets (19:45 BST) 1.14 31 5 110.73 %
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 I'll be brief this week. Bookies have it about right and not much value this round. An early upset always happens in a league like this so just one for me. Ulster play Cardiff at Ravenhill. Both teams are setting the pace early on and have similar scores against similar opposition. Can see it being a close game and due to the forecast of thunder and lightning over tonight and tomorrow i see it being a close forwards battle. Ulster Cardiff under 37 @ 10/11 Bet365 1 unit Two other small bets: Ulster Cardiff draw @ 25/1 Betfred 0.2 units Connacht Glasgow draw @ 25/1 Betfred 0.2 units Unsure if i'm tipping next week as i'm travelling for work. :hope

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12

Friday 30 September 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifNewport Gwent Dragons v Ulster (19:05 BST) 2.01 21 1.85 108.57 %
maximize.gifEdinburgh v Munster (19:30 BST) 3 26 1.44 106.41 %
maximize.gifOspreys v Connacht (19:30 BST) 1.11 34 6.5 108.33 %
Saturday 1 October 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifBenetton Treviso v Scarlets (14:00 BST) 1.8 21 2.2 105.77 %
maximize.gifLeinster v Aironi (18:00 BST) 1.04 41 10 108.59 %
maximize.gifCardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors (18:30 BST) 1.14 34 6 107.11 %
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Back with some bets for this round. Haven't had the chance to see much games over the past two weeks so stakes will be generally less than my usual 1%. Edinburgh v Munster under 39 @ evens 0.6 units Can't call a winner here. With Munsters form they're short for favourites but Edinburgh have been close in all their games so far and the new coaching team will want another win early on, especially against a strong side like this. Munster have two big props back in the fray and I think they'll dominate but the scots won't make it easy. Most of Munsters away games were under last season and i am taking it here too as i'm relying on Edinburgh defence to improve. Dragons v Ulster Ulster win by 1-12 @ 17/10 0.5 units Haven't got much reasoning for this one but I think Ulster are a very strong squad this year and after a loss last week they'll be hungry to get back to winning ways, with no new injury concerns. The Dragons have reportedly had to look to local leagues for some backup players and they haven't been impressive early on. They're always tough to beat at Rodney Parade but Ulster will draw faith from the fact they were the last team to do so earlier in the year. Treviso v Llanelli Scarlets Scarlets win @ evens 0.6 units Treviso won last week to give them a boost but its the opposite of the above match where I think the desperate Welsh team have the nous to grind out a result. Scarlets need a win and i'm expecting a high scoring affair here where both teams will have no fear. I don't have much details on the match so its a little more speculative but its a good price for me. May exchange the odds on Betfair. Some tryscorers, all 0.2 units: Tom James Cardiff first @ 15/2 anytime @ 5/4 Alex Cuthbert Cardiff first @ 15/2 Gavin Evans Cardiff first @10/1 Luke Fitzgerald Leinster - market not available yet :hope

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Edinburgh v Munster under 39 @ evens :sad Loss Dragons v Ulster Ulster win by 1-12 @ 17/10 :sad Loss Treviso v Llanelli Scarlets Scarlets win @ evens:sad Loss Tom James Cardiff first @ 15/2 anytime @ 5/4 :sad Loss Alex Cuthbert Cardiff first @ 15/2:sad Loss Gavin Evans Cardiff first @10/1:sad Loss It doesn't get any worse than that. I didn't even get on Fitzgerald anytime and it was the only thing that would have came in :pukeApologies to anyone who followed. The bookies had it all wrong. Connacht well inside the +, Dragons and Treviso winning at 2/1, Edinburgh at 3/1 and Glasgow hammering Blues by something like 20 away, started at 6/1. Sickened I didn't look into that given they beat Leinster away a few weeks back. Down to +1.46 this season, will be more disciplined next week.

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Don't know if i'll play at all this week but i'll update anyway

Friday 7 October 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifScarlets v Edinburgh (19:05 BST) 1.44 23 2.75 109.94 %
maximize.gifUlster v Benetton Treviso (19:05 BST) 1.15 41 8.5 101.16 %
maximize.gifGlasgow Warriors v Newport Gwent Dragons (19:30 BST) 1.57 24 2.4 109.47 %
Saturday 8 October 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifAironi v Cardiff Blues (14:00 BST) 3 21 1.36 111.43 %
maximize.gifLeinster v Connacht (17:00 BST) 1.14 34 6.5 106.05 %
maximize.gifMunster v Ospreys (19:30 BST) 1.36 24 3 110.83 %
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Glasgow won their last two games on the road, beating Leinster by 4 points three weeks ago and hammering Cardiff last weekend. They had a disappointing loss in the meantime against Treviso at home and will be desperate to win for the first time at home this season against Newport. Only two changes from last weeks away win so the side will be strong enough.

betfred units>

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Glasgow -3.0 @ 10/11 :p Win +3.28 for season Great performance from the young Weir, will keep an eye on him. More upsets this week with Ospreys edging out Munster at Thomond and Treviso winning away at a big price.

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12

Friday 28 October 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifGlasgow Warriors v Ospreys (19:05 BST) 2.02 23 2.05 102.63 %
maximize.gifEdinburgh v Leinster (19:35 BST) 2.48 28 1.72 101.79 %
maximize.gifMunster v Aironi (20:30 BST) 1.06 70 13 103.24 %
Saturday 29 October 2011HomeDrawAwayBPP
maximize.gifBenetton Treviso v Newport Gwent Dragons (14:00 BST) 1.5 26 2.87 105.30 %
maximize.gifScarlets v Ulster (15:00 BST) 2.3 26 1.83 101.87 %
maximize.gifConnacht v Cardiff Blues (18:00 BST) 2 26 1.9 106.23 %
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 What do you make of Connacht's chances against the Blues tonight Leitrim. I've see a good bit of the Blues and they've been very indifferent. They at least have Yapp and Filise back which will at least give them some solidity in the front row and of course Dan Parks but he looked shot during the World Cup. I haven't seen Connacht at all but I noticed they've lost several games on the bounce. Are they just playing badly or missing players etc

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Two bets today for me. Munster are far too short at home to Aironi. Munster are bringing back their big guns for this with starts for Earls, O'Connell, new signing from Queensland Chambers and O'Gara. They lost their last two games and need a win. Still, even with their returning first teamers, they've had a week less break than the Italians. Aironi are still the weakest team in this division. This is their second season and top priority is surely an away win. While i don't think it'll happen here (though Musgrave park is no fortress), the Italians are worth a punt at a +19 handicap. They've got their four players back from the WC and the other team are already battle hardened from their six games so far in the league. Aironi have scored just as many tries as Munster so far this campaign and while they concede loads, I think they'll be up for this one. Of their three away games so far this season they lost the opener by more than this handicap (23 to the Blues) but have improved ever since and so i'm going for the +19 on Pinnacle. Aironi +19 @ 1.943 Pinnacle 2 units Second game i'm looking at this evening is Leinster away to Edinburgh. No Irish team has won at Murrayfield since Munster last year. Thats why I think there is value in Edinburgh this round. Leinster have a lot of front liners back for this one but Edinburgh will be boosted too by the return of five internationals including Paterson. They'll have no problems with the boot as Greg Laidlaw has been excellent so far this season and he captains the side. Leinster haven't brought back their full contingent, the Irish having exited the world cup a week and a few days later than their Celtic cousins. This means the team is not as strong as it might be and their looks less intimidating than the Scot's, on paper. Two very exciting back divisions on display here. Schmidt has stuck with some young fellas who've done well to keep in touch with the leaders of the league, but without Nacewa and others on the teamsheet, I think he's got an eye on the Munster game coming up and the Heineken Cup matches. All in all, I think its an excellent time for ultra motivated Edinburgh coach Michael Bradley to complete a clean sweep of the Irish sides and i'm going for a couple here too. Also taking the overs, Edinburgh having covered it in 5/6 games so far this season. Edinburgh win @ 2.49 Pinnacle 1 unit Edinburgh -4 @ 3.00 Bet365 0.5 units Over 39.5 @ 2.06 Pinnacle 0.5 units :hope

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12

What do you make of Connacht's chances against the Blues tonight Leitrim. I've see a good bit of the Blues and they've been very indifferent. They at least have Yapp and Filise back which will at least give them some solidity in the front row and of course Dan Parks but he looked shot during the World Cup. I haven't seen Connacht at all but I noticed they've lost several games on the bounce. Are they just playing badly or missing players etc
I'm actually leaning toward my home province on this one. It's on tomorrow and i'll give it a write up after tonights games or tomo, but we have a big chance here. Connacht didn't have as many WC absentees as other teams and will be happy with the start. Believe it or not they should have beaten leaders Ospreys and gave Leinster a big scare too. Vainikolo debut's tomorrow and its at home where we've been stronger this season where we've got a bit of a fortress mentality brewing. I expect us to win actually, as i've been very surprised how much the Blues have veered between the excellent and the very poor. I haven't seen too much of them but depending on the team sheet the Blues put out (can't be full strength with the Welsh boys exploits) i'll be favouring the home team as i've seen us play and we've definitely improved on last season. Parks starting wouldn't hold me back from back Connacht but i'm afraid of the Blues backline. Still when you look at Blues record against us and in Ireland in general, history is in our favour. As i said, i'll write up either tonight or tomo but definitely favouring us Steve. Nice to see someone else follows the league too. Need to feed the addiciton after the last seven weeks of WC action! PS nice avatar. Love the opening scene in the pool hall 'What the **** you lookin at?' 'YOU, ya ****.' Absolutely terrifying! Brilliant film.
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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Good shout on Aironi Leitrim. I watched the Glasgow Ospreys game and it was unbelievable how bad the Ospreys played during that second half having been fully in control at HT. When they took Webb off at half time they fell apart soon after, although the sending off of their hooker was abit harsh but the ref had just had enough of all the penalties given away by both sides.

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Too close to kick off to do a proper write up but backing Connacht for reasons mentioned above. Plenty of value on them at 2.3 @ Pinnacle. I got to watch the first half of the Glasgow game too Steve, didn't get to see it all though. Really should have looked at that game as the Ospreys good fortune was bound to come to an end sooner rather than later. Was wondering how Glasgow managed to accumulate such a big score against them in the second so i guess it must have been the dismissal. Big wins for Treviso and Scarlets today, wouldn't have seen the Scarlets winning at all tbh. All goes to show there's plenty of value in this league. I'm going to crunch the numbers in more detail over the next few weeks as even with the internationals all coming back, the value is always with the underdogs.

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Caught the second half of the Connacht game Sam and by fcuked those were two soft tries they conceeded from the off, it's as if they couldn't be arsed to tackle. Liked the look of their scrum though and how direct they were going through the phases, no messing about. Couldn't understand those two tries though:unsure

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Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 RaboDirect Pro 12 Absolutley. I dare say something was put in their minds that they just could relax a little in the second half with a 17-6 advantage because they came out cold and naively threw away the lead. Just not clinical enough, but it's their first home loss since April, better than any of the other Irish teams. Hopefully they'll make retributions against Ulster who're in poor form next week. The week after that the Heineken Cup starts, we must get a thread going soon! :ok

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