BillyHills Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Anyone wanting to know how a system has worked in the past? Backtesting system software is widely available but not everyone can access it, thought it would be useful for those unable to backtest a certain criteria to put their query in this thread and i'll backtest it with the software I have. It may be that you want to know something quite simple like how many fav's win novice hurdles at Newbury for example, or how many top weights win nursery races etc... Some other queries may be more specific like trainer and jockey stats in certain races etc.. Just put your query in this thread and i'll check the stats as soon as I can and put the results in here, if i have not answered your query within a couple of days just give me a PM to remind me. Remember the more specific you are the more reliable the results will be. BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Re: System Backtesting This is a briliant idea Billy and thankyou for doing this and offering your services yet again! I have one that I am sure would be a success but just havnt been able to find stats! I am looking at laying all horses who have won an apprentice race and then go into another race unpenalised in the next few days before it is reassessed for some reason these often seem to be sent off at stupid prices and often get beaten it seems! Thankyou for any help you can offer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Re: System Backtesting I'll have a look later tonight Chris, got more time then as this one may take a bit of filtering:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Ok Chris, not a great start to this thread. I cant seperate the Apprentice races from Class 6 handicaps for some reason, anyway this is what i've come closest to. I looked at all Class 6 handicaps (which App races are) that were won by a jockey claiming either 3,5 or 7lbs in the last 8 years that then went on to run within the following week. If i can narrow it down further i'll let you know mate. The results were; 145 qualifiers of which 32 won both races, the P/L was +4.21 There was a losing sequence of 12 on two occasions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Read this one years ago , can't even remember where , but followed it for a while . It didn't make a huge profit but did give a stredy flow of winners . Basically it involves selecting any Fav in any Non-Handicap race but not Claimers , Sellers , Apprentice , Lady riders only etc . The selection had to be priced between 6/4 and evens with the next best in the market being at least 3pts higher , eg 7/2 or above. Applies to Flat and NH races . Of course the original system invoved picking a national newspaper and using their forecasted odds but it would be interesting to see if , 1 - A profit can be achieved and , 2 - If the Flat produces more profit than the Jumps . Hope you can oblige BH :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete10 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Nice one Billy .Top weights at tight tracks Up to three mile Handicaps .Hurdles and fences. Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Interesting. Thanks Billy :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Ok Chris, not a great start to this thread. I cant seperate the Apprentice races from Class 6 handicaps for some reason, anyway this is what i've come closest to. I looked at all Class 6 handicaps (which App races are) that were won by a jockey claiming either 3,5 or 7lbs in the last 8 years that then went on to run within the following week. If i can narrow it down further i'll let you know mate. The results were; 145 qualifiers of which 32 won both races, the P/L was +4.21 There was a losing sequence of 12 on two occasions. Cheers Graham might paper trial it in here an see what happens thanks anyway mate!! Much appreciated!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Re: System Backtesting I'll get back to the requests later on today if i can:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Nice one Billy .Top weights at tight tracks Up to three mile Handicaps .Hurdles and fences. Thanks in advance. Pete these are tight tracks as indicated here http://www.allaboutbetting.co.uk/horseracing/nationalhuntcourses/nationalhuntcourses.html Bangor,Cartmel,Catterick,Fakenham,Folkstone,Fontwell,Haydock, Hereford,Kelso,Kempton,Lingfield,Aintree Market Rasen,Newton Abbot, Perth,Plumpton,Southwell,Stratford,Taunton,Uttoxeter,Warwick,Weatherby,Wincanton If you want any kicking out then say so. Results; Since 2003 7,516 selections (seems a lot buts its only about 40 races per track each season) 956 Winners 2,474 Placed Loss (1,325) to £1 stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Re: System Backtesting I would like to know what the optimum break period has been for 2yos that didn't win their first maiden, racing in their next outing in terms of weeks? So at least we can cut out first timers here. Quick turnout or a more patient approach? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Jay, not sure i understand what your after mate, can you give me an example, sorry if i'm being a bit thick here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Read this one years ago , can't even remember where , but followed it for a while . It didn't make a huge profit but did give a stredy flow of winners . Basically it involves selecting any Fav in any Non-Handicap race but not Claimers , Sellers , Apprentice , Lady riders only etc . The selection had to be priced between 6/4 and evens with the next best in the market being at least 3pts higher , eg 7/2 or above. Applies to Flat and NH races . Of course the original system invoved picking a national newspaper and using their forecasted odds but it would be interesting to see if , 1 - A profit can be achieved and , 2 - If the Flat produces more profit than the Jumps . Hope you can oblige BH :hope JTW; Works out to about 3 or 4 races per week, does that sound about right? The Flat and NH results are pretty similar, both around 42% strike rate. Flat 1416 races 604 Wins 42.7% Loss (76.57) Place %: 75% NH 971 races 409 Wins 42.1% Loss (66.14) Place %: 72% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Sorry, my mistake. I didn't explain as well as I could have... 2yo races only. I'd like to know if a horse this age runs better (winning percentage wise) within a week of its LTO, or 2 weeks, 3 weeks etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Sorry, my mistake. I didn't explain as well as I could have... 2yo races only. I'd like to know if a horse this age runs better (winning percentage wise) within a week of its LTO, or 2 weeks, 3 weeks etc. Results since 2003 1 Week : 12.6% 2 Weeks: 11.7% 3 Weeks: 12.2% 4 Weeks: 11.3% 5 Weeks: 10.5% 6 Weeks: 10.5% Over 6 : 9.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete10 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Thanks Graham :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Re: System Backtesting BH, does the software allow you to test Irish? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Sorry Jay didnt see the message, Yes it does Irish too:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete10 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Pete these are tight tracks as indicated here http://www.allaboutbetting.co.uk/horseracing/nationalhuntcourses/nationalhuntcourses.html Bangor,Cartmel,Catterick,Fakenham,Folkstone,Fontwell,Haydock, Hereford,Kelso,Kempton,Lingfield,Aintree Market Rasen,Newton Abbot, Perth,Plumpton,Southwell,Stratford,Taunton,Uttoxeter,Warwick,Weatherby,Wincanton If you want any kicking out then say so. Results; Since 2003 7,516 selections (seems a lot buts its only about 40 races per track each season) 956 Winners 2,474 Placed Loss (1,325) to £1 stake BH can you take out Plumpton Wetherby Please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Sorry Jay didnt see the message' date=' Yes it does Irish too:ok[/quote'] Excellent news! Don't know what angle I'd like to test yet, so will give it some thought :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Read this one years ago , can't even remember where , but followed it for a while . It didn't make a huge profit but did give a stredy flow of winners . Basically it involves selecting any Fav in any Non-Handicap race but not Claimers , Sellers , Apprentice , Lady riders only etc . The selection had to be priced between 6/4 and evens with the next best in the market being at least 3pts higher , eg 7/2 or above. Applies to Flat and NH races . Non-Handicap races only. Selection must be forecast favourite The selection must have a forecast price in the RP greater than 1/1 Second favourite must be at least double the odds of the favourite. 1/1 - 3/1 5/4 - 7/2 6/4 - 4/1 7/4 - 9/2 2/1 - 5/1 etc...... :ok 1 today Hereford 8.10 NH Flat Thespis of Icaria rp 6/4 fav...2nd fav 6/1 won 4/5 :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: System Backtesting BH Any chance you can check out Claimers only Top OR Forecast Favourite (also as above but sp favourite) 1 today Carlisle 2.40 Claimer rp Fav Esprit de Midas top OR 85 won 3/1 :clap :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Get round to these later today guys:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: System Backtesting BH can you take out Plumpton Wetherby Please Races: 6907 Wins: 911 Places: 2278 13.19% SR Loss = 1033.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: System Backtesting BH Any chance you can check out Claimers only Top OR Forecast Favourite (also as above but sp favourite) 1 today Carlisle 2.40 Claimer rp Fav Esprit de Midas top OR 85 won 3/1 :clap :ok Cant do F/C Favs i'm afraid, but actual fav's are below; UK Races, Flat Only, Claimers Only, Top O/R, Fav. Races : 1856 Wins : 394 21.23% Places : 816 43.97% Loss : 79.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: System Backtesting cheers BH Are you using RSB ? My RSB does'nt work anymore after I had a major crash on comp redone xp and all drivers etc but still wont work. Wont work on my laptop either (win7) so Im goosed as RSB is no more. Will have to drag my win 95 comp out of retirement :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Not sure what RSB is Monkey? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: System Backtesting RSB was a systems database I have the discs but they wont re-load on my comp anymore (xp) after I had a major comp crash . Tried them on my laptop still wont work, but will work on my old windows 95 comp for some reason. Not tech savvy enough to know which drivers or dll's are missing . RSB stopped trading about 4 yrs ago so I cant ask them either :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Here's one for you, BH... Runners at the same track as their last outing, within the past seven days, two weeks and a month. I'm wondering what the strike rate is if they are taking part in the same class as before or if it increases when they go up or down in class? Also interested if it makes any difference with a change of distance? And finally, if there are any favourable tracks? I didn't have Irish in mind for this, so just UK, please. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: System Backtesting Runners at the same track as their last outing Not sure I can do that, i'll have a look tomorrow Jay:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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