mayfly Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Hi, I've been lurking on Sports forums for Years without posting my thoughts or opinions, nevertheless I would consider myself a very learned person when it comes to betting. Recently My wife acquired a permanent medical condition which has left me caring for her fulltime and no other income but welfare, so what was my hobby has suddenly become a much needed source of money. The reason for posting is to give others an insight of what it entails and what difficulties crop up when stepping up a gear from minimal profitable recreational gambling to a must win situation. I 've decided to kick off on August 1st and by that time I'll have my strategies in place. I will post my bets for what its worth as long as they're straight forward although there will be a degree of trading on certain markets which cannot be catagorised. Until that date I'm going to post what Books and exchanges, bankroll and theories I'll need to get going. With all the extra time on my hands I'm also in a position to answer any questions about betting and the theories behind certain bets, hopefully I can be of value to the forum. So there you go, i'll start posting tomorrow, Good Luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Looking forward for your experience Mayfly:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Betting for a living BOOKMAKERS: Sadly nowadays you don’t even need to be a winner to get your accounts closed or badly limited, you only need to show you’re not a dope at the game. Outside of Pinnacle and SBOBET, that’s the state of my accounts at the moment so I had My Brother in Law open all the safest accounts for my new start. Nearly all Books are reasonable when dealing with the major Soccer Leagues but other Sports, especially horse Racing will see sharp betting blacklisted. Hopefully I can spread my bets around enough to stay under the radar for a while. I also have 4 Bookmaker shops within a stones throw of each other nearby which will be an asset as cash punters seem to be looked on as morons compared to their online counterparts. I have a Betfair account which has a historic loss that will alleviate any premium charge worries ( there’s optimism for you) Although the liquidity on Betdaq can be annoyingly low, they only charge 2% on Asian markets which can come in handy on the bigger markets. As for Matchbook, a couple of Years ago I found it cost me too much in currency and other charges (neteller) to make it viable. Until they start taking Sterling and Euro (they say they will be shortly) I have to pass. BANKROLL: Appears to be an obsession with Americans and personally I don’t agree with the theory that you bet X percentage of Y bank just because that’s the figure you’ve decided to start with. Sure you need to have sufficient funds available but very few people in reality will stop betting if somehow their committed funds run out. Rather than constantly depositing and withdrawing funds I prefer to leave enough in accounts till a sports season end, that way I’m not held up at critical times when chasing a price. 300 to 1000 in each major Bookmaker, 3-4K in Betfair and maybe 500 in Betdaq is enough for my staking needs. There is always cash at hand in my personal accounts as being my only real hobby, I don’t intend to give it up. STAKING: More is written on Betting forums about staking than probably all the other subjects put together. While I’m not going to argue the pro’s or con’s of various Kelly strategies, I do think it’s a personal decision one needs to take so that they are comfortable in their staking. Personally I favour a more relaxed type staking which allows my mind to be satisfied with the outcome. I feel comfortable with a base bet of 100 to 150, going up to 400 if the odds are attractive enough, I have staked more but it tends to be in a trading capacity. (more on that later) As for prices I rarely go below 1.90 and certainly no lower than 1.80 in Sports and no lower than 4.00 on Horses. I understand that some lower bets may have a lot of perceived value attached to them but I think the effect of these bets when they lose are very damaging psychologically (more on that later) So that’s my Bookmakers in place, my funds and my staking all ready to go. Next I will go over my early strategies, which will have to differ from my recent ones for various reasons. Any questions, feel free. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzer2k10 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living I'd be interested to hear about your strategies. I've tried a few systems, never with much luck. Dave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living gl but this is probably the wrong board for this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living gl but this is probably the wrong board for this thread. I'm watching it, and so far I don't think so. You probably want to say it's for Glory Hunters? The purpose of this forum is to discuss betting systems. The rules are here to encourage people to provide information so discussions and cooperation is possible. If you want to post a system but are not willing to give information about it then check out the Glory Hunters Forum. Mayfly said: The reason for posting is to give others an insight of what it entails and what difficulties crop up... Until that date I'm going to post what Books and exchanges, bankroll and theories I'll need to get going. I'm also in a position to answer any questions about betting and the theories behind certain bets, hopefully I can be of value to the forum. So I believe it fits here nicely so far; would you tell me what do you propose, Donkson? Mayfly, good luck with your strategy, I'm looking forward to enjoy it! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Might want to not openly discuss finances in monetary terms also :unsure Usually good etiquette to list them in the form of points staked :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conrad8000 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Looking very much forward to see this thread take off... And best wishes for you and your wife! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living BETTING OVERVIEW PART 1: Before I discuss individual Sports I thought it may be of benefit to give my opinion on betting in general as quite often betting Forums can give the impression it’s a breeze. It’s no secret that most people in an anonymous capacity tend to exaggerate or even downright lie and of course sports forums are no different. Some of the older folk on here will know only too well how things have changed betting wise especially over the last 15 years. Gone are the smoky sweaty shops, the crackling speakers, results from obscure meetings on bank holidays only available the next day and so on and so on. In those Days anyone putting in the hours were well rewarded as most licensed Bookmakers were clueless and their customers even more uninformed. Now everything is at the touch of a button, vast banks of data, latest info, custom software and even the opportunity to play Bookmaker, yet Gamblers Anonymous is busier than ever before! What’s not widely understood is Gambling’s isn’t just a matter of assessing information, formulating a stake and acquiring a premium price, if it was everyone would be rich. Gambling is much more Psychological, needing not only a degree of abstract thinking but a knowledge of how certain situations create dilemmas and conflict with a brain that’s been hardwired for millions of years. The advent of exchanges has given all of us an arena where we can play but hidden dangers lurk not only in the opposition but within ourselves and ignorance of either ends in certain loss, sadly not just of monetary means but far too often family and Friends. Whenever I’m at the seaside and look at the different rock pools, some small, some medium, some very big and then you have the sea, it reminds me of Betfair. Each pool is like a market with different species playing out their existence, one minute they’re the predator the next minute they’re the Hunted. Never do they know what might be co-habiting with them every time the tide comes in. That’s a long winded analogy but its somewhat true when one dips a toe into the many markets on Betfair. It makes sense to be aware of what your getting yourself into and the various species you will meet when trading on exchanges, that and an excellent mindset will go a long way to profit. Tomorrow I’ll go through the motley crew you may be sailing with and highlight the traps your own mind will be setting for you. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovo.cosmico Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Fabulous thread and posts. Thank you mayfly :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living a great read so far mayfly,best of luck with this and with your home life Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Very well written so far, looking forward to the 'meat' of your betting and thoughts behind any selections you're going to make - you seem a bit more switched on than the 'average' punter! Or at least talk the talk! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Good read so far! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living BETTING OVERVIEW PART 2: I was going to characterise the species found on Exchanges but I’m afraid time got the best of me. Anyways it was only going to be my attempt at some humour but this is a good example of how TIME is important when trading. There’s no point spending 5 hours in front of a PC to earn a fiver yet it’s surprising how many punters do. Along with time the other main component is LIQUIDITY, which goes hand in hand with time as the less liquidity the longer it takes to get your profit. Sooner or later everyone will naturally find their particular position in the market through sheer frustration. Because of this most markets are made up of three stages, the first from opening up to ½ hour (racing) and about 1 hour for other sports, the second from there till 2 minutes before closing and the third, the last 2 minutes or so. Each of these phases have their own dynamics and are driven by a certain factors. Stage 1 relies almost completely on the Bookmakers prices for the event and everyone follows suit in an attempt to squeeze out a profit, the problem here is lack of liquidity makes even trying to earner a tenner time consuming without some sort of strategy. While this pond is very sedate with few surprises, the majority of traders go higher up the food chain in search of quicker albeit more dangerous rewards. At this stage gone are most of the amateur minnows, those still around are joined by some very professional people and while the market becomes more volatile they certainly know what their doing. This is where the tissue traders pit their wits with commission agents investing sharp stable money in racing or where large syndicates duck and dive with the private Bookmakers on sporting events, you can see why the average punter has little chance here. As bad as that might be, he has zero chance in the last 2 minutes of a market when volatility reaches its crescendo. This is the part where everyone tries to balance up their dealings amid a wave of Independent Bookmakers hedging their liabilities and the more sophisticated bots earn their owners investment. Regardless of which stage it is the ratio of TIME / LIQUIDITY and RISK / REWARD remain for all, the problem for the small trader is one of control. The reality for the average punter trying to make a crumb is the further up the chain he goes the less his chances become of profit and the more his chances of loss become, yet just like any gambling addiction they constantly return to the scene of the crime. Leaving aside the point that you are already 5% down when you make a trade on Betfair, the fact is on a match a punter who knows absolutely nothing has a 50% chance that his guess of the price going up or down will be correct and that’s where brain starts working its hardwired thought process. In order for the Human race to evolve over time our minds had to help by rewarding us for success in the form of dopamine and releasing amnesia causing chemicals in the event of failure. This was to motivate the specie to further triumphs where an acute memory of failure would create the opposite effect. This is why we get such a buzz out of being right with our bets or trading while conveniently forgetting the dire situations we may have gotten in. Furthermore, your mind has the aptitude to create excuses for your losses that you firmly come to believe, it will do anything to keep its master happy. Another genetic blast from the past is your brains ability to convince you your actions are correct, hence the stubbornness found in everyday life. While one can see how this Fail/safe stops inner conflict which may lead to mental instability, it wrecks havoc in a situation on an exchange. There’s no problem when you are right, you trade out at your predetermined figure, congratulate yourself on your shrewdness, get your shot of dopamine and all is good in the World. However, when the trade goes the other way, in comes the millions of years genetic make up. Selling out for a loss before the event has started not only means a loss but worse, proof that you were wrong and because the price is on the drift its almost certain more losses will follow yet you doggedly hold on to the belief you are right. Just when things seem they can’t get worse, rather than take your punishment you chance leaving the liability all on that one selection, yes the one you paradoxically expected to win. And of course the rest is history, but never mind, your brain will do its age old business and you are ready to give it another go in the knowledge that loss was an unfortunate blip never to be repeated. Don’t worry, we’ve all been there but it’s good to know why. As you can see its imperative to train your mind so that your betting or trading is disciplined and fully focused at whatever level at all times. Probably another deadly sin which you need to master is greed. You naturally always want more but £5 and £10 trades can soon mount up while giving you a good time ratio. Tomorrow I’ll finish the betting overview by tidying up some loose ends that I find I may have left out. I just want to say that my opinions and thoughts are only those, mine. It doesn’t mean they’re written in stone or definitive, there are thousands of sharper people than me out there but regrettably they appear to keep everything to themselves. If there are any questions I’ll try to answer them with my limited knowledge. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marlyboy Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living great read, thread 14 certainly opened my eyes up to a few things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Firstly thanks for all the warm regards, its appreciated. :ok I forgot to mention the biggest villain of all, ALCOHOL. :beer As you know its got a huge effect on the Brain. The part hit hardest is The Amygdala which is responsible for controlling emotions, particularly fear. And I dont need to tell you where betting with no fear will take you. Leave the drinking till after your bets are made. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Here are a few Horses for tomorrow that may be of some interest. I'm not saying to bet them per se but if there's any market movement in their favour then at decent odds their worth a bet. Certainly any big prices warrant some investment regardless. 2.30 ascot BELOW ZERO good draw for front runner with top apprentice booked. certain trader in running. 5.20 Newm BAROLO TOP Hasnt come here for the fresh air but watch carefully on betfair. If it gets traded in then jump on the wagon. jump out at a premium 4.00 Chester WELLS LYRICAL This horse has been waiting all year for give in the ground. Trade with a view to keep your profit on his winning EG no win no profit. 6.15 Salisbury BASANTEE Odds on fav in here giving good value on a horse thats been highly tried. the tissue of 5/1 is obviuosly wrong but worth trading early at 7/2 or more 7.35 Hamilton MORNING TIME Dark Horse ridden by jockey living on the south coast of England. significant or maybe love affair but at 20/1 plus who cares. I'm giving these situations out to show that with a little work certain horses can be pin-pointed for some sort of investment. Experience will show you how to treat these potential earners, some will be easy to trade into a position of winnings to zero loss, others to gain a mathematical advantage far beyond SP, others have the value of just betting and leaving in a lay in running on Betfair at a nominal price to recover stakes. Experience is everything in every walk of life and gambling is no different. It takes experience of situations to learn how to maximise them, hopefully these few horses will give you something to digest tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living I forgot to add 6.45 Salisbury STEEL CUT This one is short odds but heasd and shoulders above the opposition. Jump in as soon as there's enough liquidity and then consider your options. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Furthermore' date=' your mind has the aptitude to create excuses for your losses that you firmly come to believe, it will do anything to keep its master happy. Great post but I'm wondering who is master? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mirage Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Great post but I'm wondering who is master? Us, our body i guess. I take it as meaning the brain will make all sorts of excuses to make us believe what we want to believe when it comes to reasons for losses, ability to chase losses, that we are just fan-f*****g-tastic at gambling etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Betting for a living mayfly forget the gambling/tradeing i have a cert for you that cant lose.....:loon write a book i would certanly buy it and im sure many others would,best insight into gambling/tradeing ive come across brilliant stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Might want to not openly discuss finances in monetary terms also :unsure Usually good etiquette to list them in the form of points staked :ok 9 times out of 10 I'd agree, but in this situation, with the need to make a living from betting, I think the stakes are fascinating part of the story & something I'd have been desperate to discover. Thanks for being so candid Mayfly, I wish you the very best of luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Whenever I’m at the seaside and look at the different rock pools, some small, some medium, some very big and then you have the sea, it reminds me of Betfair. :loonBlimey, what would a Psychiatrist make of that, I wonder?, you'd probably be referred straight to GA!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Very enjoyable read mayfly. I shall be following with interest. All the best with your gambling and also your home life :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Betting for a living BETTING OVERVIEW PART 3: When you go into a supermarket you are blitzed by special offers and advertising slogans geared towards you making a purchase you hadn’t considered, they realise its this sort of strategy that gives them an edge over their competitors while extracting the maximum out of their customers. Right now you’re saying you don’t fall for such nonsense yet how many never question their betting in the same terms, Bookmakers are no different in trying to eek out any edge and most punters don’t give a second thought to it. It’s worth sitting down one day and just give some thought on how Bookmakers apply their two advantages, margin and randomness. On the face of it margin seems obvious, one firm goes evens another 11/10 but that’s only scratching the surface. You fancy Arsenal to beat Spurs, do you bet the Asian h’cap, The 12X, draw no bet or correct scores. All these odds are correlated yet the vast majority will stick to the same market they always bet on regardless of the value, which is ironic as most of these punters will mention value in their posts. Another misconception is that the margin is spread evenly between the outcomes, more often than not it’s weighted to one side. This ploy is used when they use their other advantage, randomness. The Bookmakers know that the more random an outcome the more their margin kicks in over time so they came up with the half point, this instantly puts the punter in a more random situation. Imagine I’m a Bookmaker pricing up an over/under 2.5 goals market and after looking at all the statistics I realise the true odds are under 1.90 and over 2.11. As I know most of the bettors statistics will also come up with an under lean instead of going under 1.81 and over 2.00, I put the entire margin on the under 1.73 and leave the over 2.11. Over time the randomness will kick in where constantly betting the over position will not attain the 47% threshold while the margin will eat into the under position. The extra perk here for the layer is once odds go out of the usual 1.95 a side mode, punters get even more confused as to how much the margin is. Of course if you know your odds you won’t fall for this and Betdaqs Asian markets will always show you where the margin lies when compared to Book prices When betting any of these so called derivative markets one needs to know exactly the value of the whole figures each side of the half EG, 2 & 3 in the O/U 2.5 goals. That way you may find better value in whole number markets, however most mainstream Books realise this and don’t give you the opportunity. What will become crystal clear when you get used to spotting the margins is how tough it is to win on these markets, supposed zero margins on Betfair hide a significant 5% edge to overcome. Later I’ll highlight the Books biggest randomiser, the Draw in Soccer. Before I finish here I want to mention another psychological habit that’s increased since the arrival of Exchanges and that is hedging. In betting circles Hedging originated where Bookmakers took the perfectly sensible option of offloading their liabilities on an event at no cost to their margins, nowadays it’s a word which realistically means insurance. It still serves the same purpose for Bookmakers but its been taken on board by punters for a totally different reason. In running markets give bettors the chance to shed their stake liability or even more, guarantee a profit once their selection has gained the advantage. Most would say this practice shows shrewdness by the bettor but a closer look at the facts will see what a disaster it can be over time. In a nutshell any hedge will lower potential profits from 100% to whatever the hedge entailed, laying 1.10 basically 90%. The problem is that when your selection falls behind and loses you will be giving up 100% of your stake, so the more you hedge winning positions the worse it makes long term profits. The fact that these hedges are made at premium rates only compounds the situation. Of course you have to overcome the psychological nightmare that your own brain is at work here for the same reason I gave earlier, which is to protect of your mental stability. It understands from other experiences in Life that the consequences of losing a £100 stake with minutes to go in a match for only a £10 hedge will play havoc with your emotions compared to a £90 gain and contentment. So your Pre-frontal cortex will fire up the hippocampus to recall previous situations, the related sadness triggers the fear factor in the Amygdala and your mind makes the decision to hedge. You may have saved your £100 stake for a hedge of £10 with minutes to go and all is well with your conscience but remember, it doesn’t take long to knock up 5 of these maybe in the same afternoon to be losing half a stake for another bet. Believe me, control over your mind is one of the most important factors in trying to make a profit betting. The only times a hedge is warranted is in one off events like ante-post bets where you may only have 2-3 a year at long odds and is unlikely to significantly effect the bigger picture. The other is when you have bet an event for more than your usual stake specifically to get a bigger edge, but in essence that’s trading not betting. Next I will go through the individual sports I’ll be betting along with hopefully the best strategies for me to make a profit. I’ll say here firstly that I have decided to forego laying of any kind due to its high time / risk / reward element. I’m foregoing regular trading of any sort apart from my strategy in horseracing also and hopefully my targets will be more attainable. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Betting for a living I just realised who mayfly is, it's Eric Cantona :lol ""Whenever I’m at the seaside and look at the different rock pools, some small, some medium, some very big and then you have the sea, it reminds me of Betfair."" :loonBlimey' date=' what would a Psychiatrist make of that, I wonder?, you'd probably be referred straight to GA!:lol[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightshiftman Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Betting for a living Cracking Read Mayfly :notworthy look forward to your quest :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Betting for a living I just realised who mayfly is, it's Eric Cantona :lol who is Eric Cantona? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Betting for a living I am sorry, Eric Cantona is a famous French footballer, surprised you have never heard of him, and he was in the headlines a lot for his quote: "" When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea. "" and it made me think of you and your quote :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Re: Betting for a living I am sorry, Eric Cantona is a famous French footballer, surprised you have never heard of him Thanks Barcardirum, I'm well aware of who Eric is. I just used your post to point out that its not essential to have knowledge of a sport to be successful betting it. The biggest reason some punters lose is because of their knowledge, which usually contains strong bias. This can be highlighted by the old saying " he's a good Judge" which shows others with the same knowledge are not. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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