Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.30 Ascot - 2pts win Macs Power @ 11/2 (Bet365) - BOG Yet another competitive handicap, this time over 6f, and Macs Power comes into this in great form, and should take the beating. James Fanshawe's gelding had a prolific year in 2010, winning two handicaps at Kempton and Doncaster before a sound effort at the latter track in a listed event. He started off in cracking form this year when only just failing to get to Novellen Lad, after finishing fast at Newbury. He's versatile when it comes to ground conditions, as he proved when running a belter under the circumstances in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. Macs Power was unfortunately drawn on the wrong side, and did all he could to finish 1st of 9 in the stands side group. All the action was on the far side, however, so he could never challenge in a 7 1/4l 8th. He was 2l clear of the next best horse on the near side, so he win his little race quite nicely, and would have gone close if racing on the favoured far side. He runs off the same mark today and it's hard to see why he could run poorly. He's drawn high again, but hopefully it would inconvenience him this time! He's run well on his last 7 starts, and James Fanshawe's horses are going well - 20% strike rate in June and 22% so far in July. These races are obviously very competitive, and it would be foolish to pile in, with horses such as Dungannon and Ritual in the mix. The latter looks a nice progressive sprinter especially, but has to prove he's good enough for this level. Horses can always bounce back to form in these events also, but everything points to another sound effort from Macs Power. 3.15 York - 0.5pts e/w Kings Gambit @ 33/1 (BlueSQ) Very tricky 10f heritage handicap, but Kings Gambit to me looks well overpriced with conditions back in his favour today. Tom Tate's gelding is admirably consistent and tough, which is why he boasts a fine strike rate of 6-25 with 6 seconds and 2 thirds also. Last year, he was short-headed in this race by Wigmore Hall. Since then, he was only just worn down by Rio De La Plata and Rainbow Peak over a furlong shorter at York to be beaten by a length. Rainbow Peak won an Italian Group 1 afterwards and Rio De La Plata is widely regarded as a solid Group horse. Kings Gambit was then narrowly beaten twice again, by Vesuve at Ayr, and Waseet back at York. This season, he was again narrowly denied, this time at Ripon by St Moritz, on his seasonal reappearance. David Nicholls' gelding has been progressive, having won a big York handicap since, and going very close in a Group 3 at Epsom. Unfortunately Kings Gambit just keeps getting collared by nice horses. He battled on very bravely to deservedly get his head in front from Black Spirit in a Group 3 at Sandown in April, before disappointing in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. The ground was soft and the trip was a mile-and-a-half, which probably didn't suit, and he can be excused when beaten by the very exciting Await The Dawn. I think he's capable of bouncing back in this easier company, even if it does mean he has a large weight to carry around the Knavesmire. The useful Dale Swift takes off a valuable 5lbs to ease the burden, and I think he can run very bravely at a big price. He clearly likes the track at York, with form figures of 35232, and I think he'll battle on well from a prominent position. Despite the big field, there seems plenty of hold-up performers, so he shouldn't get an absolute mad dash to contend with. I just think he's a big price. You should get a run for your money, and he's a likeable horse who can gallop into the frame. Who knows, he might just hold on! 3.35 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Bated Breath @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Roger Charlton has had a good time of it lately, recording 5 winners and 4 places from his last 16 runners - all in the last fortnight. He only had 5 winners in June, and 4 of those came after the 25th, so he's clearly hitting form at the right time for this. Bated Breath made rapid strides as a 3yo last year, winning each of his first three starts - culminating in a ready 3l win in a decent handicap at Haydock. He possibly found the softer conditions against him when 3rd of 10 behind Dafeef and Deacon Blues on the July course last August - although he was only beaten 3/4l in total having been sent off the 9/4 favourite. Both of the horses who beat him that day are useful, and the latter won the Wokingham this year at Royal Ascot. It was a similar story when Bated Breath went to Doncaster for a listed race - sent off at 7/4 but could only stay on steadily to finish a well-held 4th. Charlton only managed 3-29 in August, however, his worst strike rate of the season, so trainer form may have contributed to him disappointing. Bated Breath was hampered back at Doncaster and never got in the race when 10th of 14 on his return this year, but showed he still was very useful when getting the better of Society Rock at Haydock in May. He readily brushed aside his field at Windsor - with decent horses in behind with Triple Aspect, Libranno, Monsieur Chevalier, and Horseradish chasing him home. Libranno won a Group 3 since, and Monsieur Chevalier ran a blinder to be 2nd in the Golden Jubilee - with Society Rock, who Bated Breath also beat this season, winning the Group 1 event at Ascot. Bated Breath did run in the same race, and ran a creditable 5th of 16 - beaten 2 1/4l. He stayed on, but the ground was deemed soft that day, and Bated Breath's best runs have come seemingly on quicker ground. Whilst it could have some cut in it today, it's unlikely to be as soft as it was at Ascot, so I expect an improved performance. He's beaten proven Group horses this season already, and with ground to suit, the trainer in good form, and a draw in the middle, I think he's set to run a big race.

[cc75]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July 1.55 Ascot: Tartan Trip 1pt win @ 9/1 Will Hill BOG Has been knocking on door this year from around this mark before disappointing LTO. That run however was over a furlong further so return to a mile can be viewed as a positive. Also, David Probert, who gets on well with the horse, is back on board after missing LTO ride. Blinkers on today may well help and think this horse could win from this mark back down in grade. 9/1 looks a fair price IMO.

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July 3.15 York John Smiths Cup with 20 runners going to post for this Class 2 handicap over 10 furlongs. I'm taking one at a massive price who could easily bomb with the likes of Pekan Star and Green Destiny in the field. However, I'm sure it's worth the chance. Saptapadi (33/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 5 places) - Fred is paying out on the first 5 home so I'll the price with him. This horse is 2nd top weight and has a wide draw but is no forlorn hope. Trainer is very shrewd indeed and in great form with 4 winners and 6 more in the frame for his last 16 runners. Is still pretty much lightly raced for a 5yo and, despite its mark of 105, I think the 3lb jockey claim makes this one appeal quite a bit at the weights. Has only won its maiden but has run well in a few group races including a G2 2nd to Akmal over a trip much further than this. The key could be the drop back to 10f as well as the change of stable. Travels well in its races and it may just be that trip has been the reason it hasn't won more. A big field and fast pace will ensure that this is run to suit and if stamina comes into play, then our charge has all the assets needed. Changed stables at the end of the last term and was purchased for a decent sum of 82,000 Gns, suggesting good things are expected. The ease in the ground is also a plus and, if they decide to come stands side the wide draw may be less of an issue that first thought. Should be a cracking race and I just hope our selection can do itself justice and go close.

[fintron]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July 1.55 Ascot - Nazreef - didnt get the race run to suit at Salisbury last time when the field split and he hit the front far sooner than ideal. The ground should be okay for him 6/1 B365 2.40 York - Fox Hunt - has been re-juvenated by the fitting of a visor and followed up nice Epsom success with wide margin win at Royal Ascot. Might not have finished winning yet. 10/1 B365 2.55 Newmarket - Striking Spirit - ran a belter in the Buckingham Palace Stakes from a poor draw and finished miles clear of anything else on his side of the field. Sanders is on again and is the right man to suit his style of riding. 10/1 Hills 4.20 Ascot - Licence To Till - wasn't off a yard at Pontefract but stayed on really well in the closing stages when finally put into a proper position and has dropped to a really good mark. 12/1 Coral

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July 7.35 Hamilton 1m3f Class 5 handicap with 11 runners and quite an interesting race with a few in with a chance. I'm siding with one of the more fancied runners in: Eltheeb (5/1 Boylesports BOG) - Has now drifted to a price looking like value and is an EW bet to nothing. Top weight here and deservedly so. Is a race that looks like this extra furlong will suit and the stiffish finish is another positive having run well twice recently at Pontefract. Won 2 starts ago off 4lb lower, staying on really well before having a terrible passage lto and finishing back in 4th. That day, the horse was not run to suit (the steady pace not helping) and by the time the horse saw daylight, the leaders had flown. Finished really well though suggesting that it was a tad unlucky not to be placed. Interesting that it's turned out again just 4 days later, trainer must think the horse is capable of winning again. Trainer, himself, is in decent nick too and he sends just one to the track tonight. I have real doubts over the market leaders, one up in grade and mark and the other with a poor run lto to put behind it as well as trip worries. Eltheeb is the solid selection and I'm very hopeful of a big run.

[typhoon]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July Buzz Law is the bottom weight in the 4.10 at Newmarket and with the jockey getting the 5lb claim, has won 2 mediocre races in April and then was'nt far behind Tropical Beat at Ascot. i have to question the quality of the rest, plenty of maiden types from big trainers. as an e/w bet the selection definitely has place potential at a big price and the jockeys's season LSP is decent for a claimer.

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July 3.55 York 19 left in for this Class 3, 1m handicap and 13/2 the field makes this a very open event. A big field will ensure a fast pace and I want one that will stay the trip, especially with a bit of cut getting into the ground. Mirrored (16/1 Bet365 BOG) - Local trainer will want a runner at his home track and this one has a fantastic chance. Looked an excellent prospect as a 3yo, winning twice at this trip and placing 3 times in really competitive, top handicap, 2 off marks much higher than this. Last term was a bit of a write off but came back on its reappearance to win off 5lb lower than todays mark over 2f further. Last 2 runs not as good but in a grade that's probably too much for the horse nowadays. Also, I suspect Chester's tight turns weren't ideal lto. Stall 1 will be ideal today as will the long straight here. The slightly easier ground is another big plus too. Assuming the trip is still as suitable as it was, I'm convinced this horse has a much better chance than its 16/1 odds imply.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July Side Glance 3.45 Ascot (9-4 Ladbrokes) Weak looking group race that can go to improving Side Glance. Won its last 2 and form with St Moritz looks good, that one beaten by Fanunalter last time out. Dick Turpin the class act but has looked awful recently and they kept saying they needed soft ground for it. Also gave 4lb to The Cheka and won, form franked at Haydock. Vulcanite 2.40 York (10-1 Bet365) Up in trip today but just looked like it lacked fitness last time out at Ponty. Travelled well for a long way and has been in fine form before this with a string of wins. Unexposed, right age as 4 yr olds do well in this race, ground fine. If it gets the extra few furlongs it has a real live chance today. Modun 3.15 York (9-1 Bet365) I think the ground put paid to its chances last time out, was never travelling and was eased down a long way out. Had looked better than that previously at Newbury and still looks unexposed for me if forgiving it that run last time out. Stable form slowly starting to improve too and Moore had 5 winners at York not long ago.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July CRUISER 1.55 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. Looks an each way steal based on latest effort, so with getting into this off the same mark of 85, and with handling a bit of cut (if anymore rain gets in) and liking this trip, it all looks good for him to run a big race. The pace of the race should suit if most do as they normally do, so all in all looks a solid option. 5/1 Boylesports BOG.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July Ajaan 2.40 York. 0.5 points each way. I thought he ran a great race after a layoff last time, and I also think that testing run may see him show a bit better today. Drops back to a more suitable trip, and with getting in off a mark of 101 (bodes well in context on all known recent form), I think he can run another big race. The ground's not as soft as it was last time and the blinkers stay on, so although needs to show his stuff and no less, I think he's more than capable and the price is certainly there to warrant taking the risk. 25/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July I'm trying get out of the habit of spending hours and hours on a race, looking at loads of variables for each horse. Thought I'd have a crack at 'one-liners'...........just pick up on one thing about a horse which makes it a bit of value.........the kind of thing that you'd notice after the race and say 'i should have been on that, it's an 'x'........ Here's today's one liners............all ew shots Newm 2.20 Chandlery - the old 'Hannon second string' Newm 2.55 Al Khaleej - CD winner, 2nd run back from break Newm 3.35 Libranno - underrated hannon horse, likes track Newm 4.10 Zacynthus - Zarooni/Dettori, likely improver Asc 1.55 Shamir - kempton aw to ascot theory Asc 5.30 Medicean man - big speed figs York 3.15 Kings gambit - group horse, good record in handicaps If they all flop I'll go back to burning the midnight oil.............:zzz

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July the 7.00 Hamilton is probably the worst race I have ever seen