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Atko

Tennis - 4-10 July

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

- Juan Martin Del Potro -9.5 games (v Mikhail Kukushkin) @ 2.06 with Pinnacle 5pts WIN
+5.3pts for the day. +12.2pts for the week. Del Potro absolutely crushed Kukushkin. Argentina in cruise control for that tie.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July Olivier Rochus vs Matthew Ebden 3pts O. Rochus to win 2-0 - 6/5 with Boylesports If this price is available come tomorrow afternoon i will be amazed. For me, it should be Evens so to see this was a nice surprise. Rochus came through a tricky match in the last round in straight sets and against Ebden i see him doing the same again. His form has been ok recently, nothing special, but in this tournament he hasn't been tested enough to have to up his game. Against a player like Ebden his mix of volleys, drop shots and long rallies should work very well as the type of opponent the Aussie is used to playing doesn't have that variation. The experience should also be a major advantage. The last time Ebden played anyone like Rochus was earlier this year when he was destroyed by Rainer Schuettler in straight sets. I have been left kicking myself after both of his matches this week as i convinced myself not to side with him in any shape or form but i reckon this is the end of the road. He will no doubt come into this with good confidence but facing Rochus on grass is a massive step up. Rochus has a good chance of going all the way here and i think he will go through to the next round with a 2-0 victory. EDIT: FORGOT TO ADD STAKE

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

Stuff like this happens. Had I not taken that one early would have definitely stayed away from Lino. The movement of odds was suggesting this match will be one you should not get involved with. And no surprises' date=' really. Lino managed to throw it away in the end. Guess, even Larsson does not know herself how she was able to get out that. Billion chances for a double break in the decider for Lino, does not go for it and then predictably fails to serve it out. That's what you call perfectly managed match. So Lino gets in the famous b-list. :puke[/quote'] Psycho, I didn't have work today so watched the match on my computer. Larsson played really poorly, Lino even poorer. First set to Larsson. Odds for Lino, in-play now 7/4 @ WillHill. I remembered reading here how poorly Larsson had been in the previous match so I thought of taking Lino in-play at 7/4 and just as I was about to pull the trigger, I realised the match was taking place is Sweden, Larsson is Swedish and something told me to stay away. The 2nd set was won by Lino and I was kicking myself for being what I thought was unnecessarily cautious and dogmatic. However, strangely enough even after winning the second set, Lino, who started as a heavy favourite was only 11/10 to win the match. I thought that was very, very strange. Anyways, Lino got the early break and looked liked she'd win the game and I was still chiding myself for not taking her when I had the chance when suddenly, serving for the match at 5-4, Lino gets broken, then broken again and loses the final set and match 7-5! Throughout the match I couldn't help but be horrified at how poorly Larsson was playing, yet she won. Now, I'm not one to bandy about the ''f'' word but two Swedes, both playing apalling tennis managed to reach the semi-finals of a tournament in Sweden. Maybe that's just the WTA or maybe we just like being naive.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July Hi guys, 1 pick for the Davis Cup match today: MONFILS TO DEFEAT KOHLSCHREIBER @ 1.58 on pinnaclesports On faster surfaces it could of been an equal match but on clay its difficult to see how Kohlschreiber (who is struggling with injury and form) can handle Monfils in a 5 sets match.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July Again not much to interest me today with the exception of one match in Budapest between Irina-Camelia Begu & Estrella Cabeza Candela. I think this will be quite an uneven match up in favour of Begu. Her game on clay is very strong shown by the fact that 10 out of the 13 singles finals she has ever got to have been on the clay, including most recently in Marbella in April 2011. She played Candela at that tournament in the second round and beat her 7-5 6-0. Estrella Cabeza Candela herself has also had successes on clay recently this year in Barcelona where she also managed to reach the qtr finals. However I think today she comes up against an opponant who has been very much on the rise over the last year and the gulf is likely to be too much as it was in Marbella. Candela to win under 10.5 games - 1.95 at bwin :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July Plenty of matches on show today, but nothing for me. A few of the handicaps are just a nudge out to make viable. Good luck to all that play :ok

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July Sofia Arvidsson +3.5 vs Johanna Larsson. 1.85 @ Bwin (4/10) Neihter Arvidsson nor Larsson should have got this far but they did because of incredible silly opponents. Larsson has been more lucky than Arvidsson I think and Sofia has got a bit more on serve. Both will be very tired and don't want to rule out three sets in which case this handicap should work. Anyway can't see Larsson with her current form to win by 4 games or more. Polona Hercog -3 vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Out of these two Hercog is typical clay court tennis player. Zahlavova got this far due to lucky draw. Beating Pennetta is no big deal because the Italian is out of for for the whole year. Zahlavova really doesn't possess any weapons that would hurt player like Hercog. She's a tall girl, can serve which is not the case with Zahlavova. H2H is 2-0 and Hercog should improve these stats by getting 3d win. Chosing to play handicap here as 3 games is a doable thing for sure. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

Again not much to interest me today with the exception of one match in Budapest between Irina-Camelia Begu & Estrella Cabeza Candela. I think this will be quite an uneven match up in favour of Begu. Her game on clay is very strong shown by the fact that 10 out of the 13 singles finals she has ever got to have been on the clay, including most recently in Marbella in April 2011. She played Candela at that tournament in the second round and beat her 7-5 6-0. Estrella Cabeza Candela herself has also had successes on clay recently this year in Barcelona where she also managed to reach the qtr finals. However I think today she comes up against an opponant who has been very much on the rise over the last year and the gulf is likely to be too much as it was in Marbella. Candela to win under 10.5 games - 1.95 at bwin :hope
Have you got your opponents the wrong way around at the end there, i.e, should it not be Begu to win in under 10 from your description?

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July I dont think its possible to win a tennis match in under ten games. The bets for Candela to win less than 10.5 games in the entire match, i.e 6-4, 6-4 to Begu would bring the bet in. Begu breaks in the second game, good start!

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

I dont think its possible to win a tennis match in under ten games. The bets for Candela to win less than 10.5 games in the entire match, i.e 6-4, 6-4 to Begu would bring the bet in. Begu breaks in the second game, good start!
Ha! 5-0 as im writing. If she carries this form through into the second, its a foregone conclusion mate.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July Mardy Fish vs Feliciano Lopez (Davis Cup) 2.5pts Over 38.5 games - Evens with Paddy Power This is a good price for what i consider to be a line lower than it should be. Bet365 have under 40.5 at 5/6 and i would have had that price on this line. Spain have a tough task in the States if they want to progress to the next round and i think this is the match that will have the biggest say on who faces France or Germany next. That is because, to me, it has the potential to be a 5-setter as both can be great and average numerous times throughout a best of 5 match. Basically, their ability when in good form is closely matched. They both got through to the quarters at Wimbledon so there shouldn't be too much of an advantage in terms of fitness and the head-to-head record is currently at 3-2 to Fish with all his wins coming in the last 3 meetings. However, i don't think that will be too much to overcome for Lopez mentally as he has beaten the American twice on the hard courts, once in '08 and the other in '02. Lopez's serve can be effective on this surface and his ability to hold it is one of the main reasons i took this line as it increases the possibility of a tie break in the match. The chance that this will be completed in 3 sets by either player isn't too great to put me off the bet so i will happily take this with medium stakes.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

Sofia Arvidsson +3.5 vs Johanna Larsson. 1.85 @ Bwin (4/10) Polona Hercog -3 vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10)
LOSS WIN Once again became a victim of a braindead performance. Arvidsson did not want to play neither before the rain delay nor after it. Really horrible performance. Tha's the 2nd time she's screwed up for me in last couple months. I'm pretty sure I'm done with her for years to come. At least Hercog managed to get the job done, but not without major stress.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

Candela to win under 10.5 games - 1.95 at bwin :hope
Only the 3 games won by Cabeza - Candela so a good profit for me today, and takes me back into profit for the week :D Begu's semi against Anabel Medina is another interesting match up. I feel this one could be tight as both are good clay court players and both have had a good year on surface already. Medina is favourite but I don't think Begu will be overawed by her, and I recall her beating Kuznetsova in 3 sets in the semi final of the Marbella event this year. Odds on both the Begu outright and 2-1 Begu are very tempting but I think I will take a more cautious approach and go with over 21.5 games - 2.15 at unibet William Hill are also offering odds on the score after 2 games and after 4 games. You can get 1.73 on 1-1 and 2.3 for 2-2 which as I feel this is going to be a tight affair are very interesting odds and something I may consider after i've taken a good look at both players recent stats. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

Olivier Rochus vs Matthew Ebden 3pts O. Rochus to win 2-0 - 6/5 with Boylesports Mardy Fish vs Feliciano Lopez (Davis Cup) 2.5pts Over 38.5 games - Evens with Paddy Power
Both winners. Much needed winners. +6.1 points for the day +5.6 points for the week

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July I'll have a single play for today ... - Olivier Rochus -3.5 games (v Michael Yani) @ 1.833 with Pinnacle 7pts There's something about Newport that gets Rochus' juices flowing. He got to the final last year (lost to Fish in three) and looks poised to make the same juncture again. I was impressed by his win over Ebden, who has come on a fair bit this year, and his committment and desire can't be faulted. He battled past Jones and then saved a portfolio of break points against Mahut. He's scraped and scratched his way past opponents and I reckon he'll have too much for Yani. The American has benefitted from the sort of route that only dreams are made of for such an average player. Beating Sela in R1 is a decent showing but he was the benefactor of Haas retiring before nudging past Kudla in a slugfest yesterday. Yani, for me, is one of those average American players who probably doesn't have a passport, as he tends to play in all the Challengers that take place there. Decent enough at that level but I can see his lack of weapons and probable lack of stamina costing him dear against Rochus. The Belgian didn't lose his serve once against Ebden and is a crafty, accomplished player off the deck. He's got a lot more variaton and court nous than his American. One could cite home advantage as a reason to take Rochus on, but he is an experienced player and I can't see him getting fazed by the setting. And anyway, Newport isn't exactly the most raucous of environs. Rochus is a few clicks above Yani on the talent ladder and considering his love affair over the past 12 months with this event, he should have enough to cover this line and book his place in the final. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

over 21.5 games - 2.15 at unibet :hope
:\ Needed a couple of more games for this to come in, ended 6-4, 6-4 to Begu. Going for the same bet as Atko later in the Rochus vs Yani match for all of the same reasons. Rochus -3.5 games - 1.75 at bwin :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

I'll have a single play for today ... - Olivier Rochus -3.5 games (v Michael Yani) @ 1.833 with Pinnacle 7pts There's something about Newport that gets Rochus' juices flowing. He got to the final last year (lost to Fish in three) and looks poised to make the same juncture again. I was impressed by his win over Ebden, who has come on a fair bit this year, and his committment and desire can't be faulted. He battled past Jones and then saved a portfolio of break points against Mahut. He's scraped and scratched his way past opponents and I reckon he'll have too much for Yani. The American has benefitted from the sort of route that only dreams are made of for such an average player. Beating Sela in R1 is a decent showing but he was the benefactor of Haas retiring before nudging past Kudla in a slugfest yesterday. Yani, for me, is one of those average American players who probably doesn't have a passport, as he tends to play in all the Challengers that take place there. Decent enough at that level but I can see his lack of weapons and probable lack of stamina costing him dear against Rochus. The Belgian didn't lose his serve once against Ebden and is a crafty, accomplished player off the deck. He's got a lot more variaton and court nous than his American. One could cite home advantage as a reason to take Rochus on, but he is an experienced player and I can't see him getting fazed by the setting. And anyway, Newport isn't exactly the most raucous of environs. Rochus is a few clicks above Yani on the talent ladder and considering his love affair over the past 12 months with this event, he should have enough to cover this line and book his place in the final. :hope
Good call mate, should be a good final :ok

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

- Olivier Rochus -3.5 games (v Michael Yani) @ 1.833 with Pinnacle 7pts WIN
+5.83pts for the day. +18.03pts for the week. Very comfortable win for Rochus. Didn't realise until after that Yani is in Bastad next week - therefore he must have a passport :p Rochus just too strong for him. Should be a good final, no bets from me today though so happy to close the week out with a good profit :ok Some good calls this week chaps, let's hope the next one is as profitable :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

SportTennis
EventIsner v O Rochus
SelectionO Rochus
Strength10/10
Date10/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price>Pinnacle Sports @ 3.23
ReasoningI think this is a massive price on Rochus. He loves the grass and is having an excellent week. He probably won't have too many more chances in a 250 final so big match for him. He's got the game to slice and cut and give Isner a lot of problems. Isner has served well this week but his baseline game has been poor, even for him. I think Rochus has enough on return and when he gets into a rally he's big fav. I think this is priced all wrong, and would have Rochus at 2.10.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

SportTennis
EventFerrer v Fish
SelectionFerrer
Strength10/10
Date10/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price>Pinnacle Sports @ 1.71
ReasoningReally like Ferrer tonight. He was excellent against Roddick, playing a really high level and adapted to the quick surface really well. Fish had a very tough match against Lopez, going down in 5 sets. He played well at times, but when it got close he looked nervous and struggled on serve. Pressure is on Fish now to save the tie, and I think that will hurt him. Ferrer is also a completely different match for him than Lopez, and I see it working very well for Ferrer.

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July

Rochus -3.5 games - 1.75 at bwin :hope
Good call Atko and well done on your profits this week. I've got a small profit for the week myself and its going on; Rochus +3.5 games 1.85 at bwin If you applied this handicap to all of Isner's previous three opponents at Newport then the bet would have won in all the games. Isners serve has been strong as you would expect this week, with 75% first serves in for the last two games and plenty of aces too and I expect this to continue tonight. However I feel Rochus has the game and the experience to keep Isner close throughout and the match is likely to be won or lost on tiebreaks. Isner has been taken to a tie break in each of the last 3 games as well. A tight game like this should see this handicap covered regardless of whether Rochus wins or not. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 4-10 July I won Rochus -4 yesterday, so I decided to put a small punt on Begu to win her first title today. After all, where else she should win it if not in neighbourghing Budapest. I must say, however, that Begu is unbelievable clown :cry4-2 in the decider and having three breakpoints on return to lead 5-2, Vinci all over the place. Now Begu missed easy volley and, of course, did not won a game since. I'll be damned if I ever bet on her again in the finals. edit: going for Little Olivier to beat Big John @3.050 Pinnacle kinda fun bet aimed at covering my losses from Begu bet, so no real harm will be done if this won't come through, but somehow I feel it will. Last year Rochus played really tight final against Fish, and Fish is class better than Isner. Isner is all about serve and, if the point goes through fine bounce not far from John's side of the net, he can place a nice winner. John's return is nothing special. Olivier on the other hand can play patient tennis and wait for the right time to make a passing shot. He uses alot of slices and variations, which should give John hard time this evening. As Olivier stated, he loves to play on Newport grass, because bounces are quite low, and with all his height he can access the balls quickly :-) Rochus is a beast on the grass, while Isner usually only plays Wimbledon, and that's all. Last time he played any other grass tournament was in 2008 in Newport, losing in round 1. I expect John to keep his serve in the majority of games, but he should lose one in one set, and lose the tie-break in the other. GL :hope

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