Lars Racing Thread

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Scamperdale drifted heavily in the market after being backed early doors and went off an SP off 11/2. However, he travelled ridiculously well and looked to have a strong chance of winning. He didn't get a run for a while on the inside but didn't pick up as he should have when the gap finally came. Maybe the race would have panned out differently if the winner, San Cassiano had been challenged earlier, guess we'll never know. Arctic Maiden refused to race. She's shown no problems in the stalls in the past and the money was down for her today, very very frustrating. I'll probably give her another chance as it's possible she could have had an aversion to the severe weather that was occurring while she was in the stalls, but still, everything was lined up for a big run and that happens, gutting.:( -5pts for the day.

[Lars]

[stewartd14]

Re: Lars Racing Thread

Two out of two today. Red Not Blue winning in very game fashion. All the horses with attitude issues faded pretty tamely and the horse who finished 2nd, ran an absolute cracker but was just out-battled. It went off 11/2. Rowdy Rampage travelled best of the lot and my in-running lay would have been matched quite a way out. Few tense moments in the latter stages where his stamina just looked to be fading but stayed on well. He seems a fast ground horse so I'd expect him to be seen within the next few weeks. Couple of nasty falls in the race so glad he was prominent as he could have easily been caught up in it all. It was well-backed and went off 6/4. + 24.5pts on the day. Need a few more of these kind of days to get back on level ground for the thread but a step in the right direction.

Missed this - cracking day man !:clap

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread The perils of backing too early... the ground has gone on the quick side and although he handles it well enough it isn't 100% ideal. Kicking myself a little bit for not realising that but guess we'll see at 3:50 whether it would have made any difference...

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Never went a yard. Guess the ground was probably it but he was beaten so far out, literally after jumping the first fence. Awful. :wall -3pts

[Lars]

[Lars]

[Lars]

[Lars]

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Wasn't about yesterday and haven't had a chance to work out yesterday's profit exactly, but think it's around 8pts. Excelebration won at a canter to score the spoils for my max bet, with a 15p R4 on the 11/4. French Navy won also, although wasn't too impressed with him even though he won quite well. He'll come on for it, mind. Might have a couple for today, one of which is here... 14:30 Pontefract WAR POET has impressed me from his debut and although a hot race today, he's a decent price and worth interest. Giving a fairly easy time of it in maidens but showing definitive promise. Immediately made a decent impression by winning well on handicap debut over this trip at Thirsk. Followed that up with a decent run at Doncaster when finishing 2nd. He was a bit unlucky in-running and probably should have got in front that day. Was raised 4lbs and was then well-fancied for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Nothing went right for him though and it was such a competitive race that the effort is best left ignored I feel. Dropped 3lbs since, he's only 1lb higher than the Doncaster 2nd and 9lbs higher than when demolishing the field at Thirsk. Although up against some unexposed sorts such as Rain Mac, who could be a lot better than his rating, and other horses in good form such as Hong Kong Island, I think War Poet can make a big impact off this sort of mark as I rate him as having the potential to be rated in the 90's in the very near future. Stiff track won't be of any hindrance I don't think and the 8/1 looks too big, as I was expecting something along the lines of 5/1. WAR POET; 2pts Win @ 8/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 15:00 Pontefract NO TIME FOR TEARS is a drifter at a big price but don't for any moment see why she should be 25/1 in this well-contested staying race. Lightly raced 4yo who looks to have bags of stamina. Ran no sort of race when being quite well-supported on handicap debut in April, she showed that support wasn't all wrong when winning the final strides at Nottingham over 14f on fast ground. Although the form hasn't worked out too well, that trip looked the minimum she could operate effectively at. Was then an odd move to drop back to 12f and never really travelled. A negative being that she might not have handled this track that day but it was a better race than this one (even though fewer runners) and I'm sure that trip isn't right for her at all. She tackles 2m1f for the first time and although an unknown whether she'll stay, she shapes as if she will. Factoring in jockey claims she's only 3lbs higher than her Nottingham victory, and top apprentice Kieran O'Neill takes the ride on her once again (was on board when she won). A lot of runners here and far too many to talk about all of them, with Fire Fighter deservedly being favourite but No Time For Tears isn't badly weighted, will handle the ground and should relish a step up in trip. 25/1 is far too big although it's difficult to be too confident. Hopefully 4 places remain. NO TIME FOR TEARS; 1pt EW @ 25/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Both of the above ran no sort of race whatsoever, incredibly disappointing by War Poet especially. He probably doesn't handle the track and at least he'll get a bit of respite from the handicapper now. I'll be on next time if running on a more conventional track. No Time For Tears didn't stay but ran well enough to suggest there's still a win in her, probably over 1m6f on a stiff track. Wasn't going to have a bet tomorrow until someone pointed out that a horse I'm seriously interested in was running in France tomorrow. Completely forgot :lol but luckily there's still a price (a huge one, at that). 14:55 Deauville Goldikova is a freak in her own right and it's perhaps mad to oppose her, but the ground has come up heavy and I have no idea whatsoever why they're running her. Even after comments last season suggested she wouldn't run on this sort of ground again, it's a bizarre move. She still has the best chance in this one nonetheless but I'm opposing with a bigger-priced rival. WORTHADD is a top-class animal and perhaps ignored due to the fact he's Italian. Personally I'd never heard of him until he faced Canford Cliffs in the Lockinge at Newbury. Racing on faster ground for the first time, he ran an absolutely cracking race to finish 1.5 lengths behind Canford. Although the winner wasn't fully fit, conditions weren't really to suit for my selection so the performance is still very creditable. He's been kept relatively fresh since then, having only one run. That was an Italian Group 2 which don't have the greatest of reputation. As you'd hope, he did it really easily. The runner up in that race did actually win a German Group 3 next time up and was then beaten 8 lengths by Goldikova next time. The heavy ground shouldn't be an issue at all, he's won on it before and on one occasion that was in the Italian Derby, running over 11f which is much further than his ideal trip. He runs well off a break so the short absence isn't a concern and with Mirco Demuro on board, who is a top-class jockey, shown by his Shergar Cup exploits, means he's in good hands. Cityscape is the big danger excluding the obvious one, but Worthadd is almost double the price. Personally, I can't see him being out of the first three here, I'll be gutted if so as he has nearly everything to suit. Really confident, even with the presence of one of the true greats of racing. WORTHADD; 2.5pts EW @ 16/1 Boylesports

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Rumours going round that Goldikova might be a non-runner now... which will mean a big R4 if so :$. Hope she takes her chance in a way as she's vulnerable, but...

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread :pukeis pretty appropriate I think. Worthadd got a good position towards the front of affairs tracking the Goldikova pacemakers. He was still travelling supremely well when they both faded out of contention. It was then that he sustained an injury, or merely emptied out and found absolutely nothing. He was ridden for a matter of strides though which suggests the former. Another thing to suggest it was an injury more than anything else was that he was carrying his head quite awkwardly in the opening stages of the race and wanted to hang left. He hasn't done this before and generally has looked straightforward. Traded at 3/1 in-running too and that was some way out which emphasises the point about how well he was running. I'm pretty gutted, maybe he wouldn't have beat the front two but we'll never know and I never got a run for my money. If it does turn out to be an injury and if he races again (after an Italian prep run victory) I'll be on again. :(

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 17:40 Worcester MISAMON is a much bigger price than I expected him to be and although not a selection I have a great deal of confidence in winning the race, he's a tough sort and that may dividends today with how the race will likely pan out. He hasn't won since 2010 when winning off a much lower hurdles mark but has generally been in good form this time around. Creditable performances coming off slightly higher marks in better races than this. His run last time at Southwell will have to be ignored but this is a much weaker race and he can bounce back to form after a short break. Doesn't have to lead and this will be useful as there's plenty of pace on here with My Condor and New Rackheath likely to set a decent gallop. You'll need to stay further than 2 miles to win this one I think and Misamon does just that, running well this season over 2m4f. Rince Donn is also well-fancied but has done all his winning with cut in the ground and he's a temperamental character anyway. I was planning on leaving the race alone at yesterday's prices but the 5/1 on offer for Misamon looks appealing. I'm quite sure he'll finish in the first 3 and this seems an "EW bet to nothing". Yard's limited runners going quite well and hopeful of at least a decent showing. MISAMON; 1pt EW @ 5/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Made a poor jump and lost all momentum, never went a yard after that. Let's hope Ebor week brings some better fortune.

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 16:05 Nottingham Wrote this last time for ARCTIC MAIDEN.

16:30 Windsor ARCTIC MAIDEN wasn’t fully “wound up” last time I felt but the softer conditions she faced then may not have suited. I still think she’s a winner waiting to happen and dropped a further 2lbs, as well as the handling of the talented Adam Beschizza, she can finally realise the potential (albeit at a low level) that I think she has. Willie Musson’s filly showed a modicum of promise as a 2yo and was allotted a mark of 63 for her handicap debut. She has mostly gone off big prices this season in handicaps but she’s shown ability on a couple of them, most specifically when running at Windsor over a mile in June. She stayed on well and indicated that a step up in trip that she gets today. Last time she faced that trip for the first time but was given an odd ride by Stevie Donohoe, being held up at the rear for far too long. Even so, she might not have picked up that well due to the softer ground conditions, so I’ll most definitely give her another chance. The better ground she’ll encounter today should mean there’s little in the way of excuses on that front. Dropped another 2lbs, she has to go well off this kind of mark. The booking of Adam Beschizza is very interesting, as he has a record of 3/3 for the yard and it’s his only ride of the day. This race won’t take a lot of winning, even though 16 line up currently there’s a distinct lack of strength in depth. My selection is a horse I’ve been following for a while and I think today may be the day where she goes very close. The price isn’t as big as I hoped, mainly due to people on Betfair backing it overnight and I would be staking far heavier if she was a double figure price, but in my view, she’s still value.

Heavily backed, she refused to race which does dampen enthusiasm. However, there was some severe rain when they were loading her into the stalls and I'll give her one more chance. She'll have at least passed a stalls test if she's running today. Ground will be ideal for her and as long as she's trying, especially for a gambling yard, then she'll go very close for the aforementioned reasons. Would back in-running but at York Races today so... ARCTIC MAIDEN; 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Won eased down at an SP of 17/2. Came out of the stalls fine and was held up off a good gallop which would have been perfect. Travelled well and was given a fine ride by Stevie Donohue. Happy days.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Lars Racing Thread :clap Well done mate :ok

[cpo]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Nice Winner matey. Very easy :ok

[Lars]

[Lars]

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 15:40 York Was just gonna leave this to back on-course but looks like any decent price will have gone by then. VITA NOVA was incredibly unlucky last time in the Lancashire Oaks and is certain to have been the winner had the saddle not slipped. She'll have to improve again to win this tougher race but she's progressed so much this season that I don't think that's out of the question. Henry Cecil trains the 4yo whose had a cracking season to date, winning a handicap by 6 lengths off a mark of 87 before going close at Haydock in a fillies listed race, just been beaten by Ferdoos, whose a capable horse in her own right. Progressed even further when unlucky in the Lancashire Oaks and although she comes up against capable 3yo's such as Blue Bunting and Banimpire who are also quickly improving, in my view Vita Nova is well up to Group 1 company and is a big price. Was hoping that the 9/2 would be still around by post time and it's now only available in one place so that forces my hand somewhat. Will probably go in again on-course but for thread purposes, a 2pt bet in a high quality race is sufficient. VITA NOVA; 2pts Win @ 9/2 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Awful day for the thread as all returned nothing. Vita Nova ran an absolute stormer but just couldn't get past Blue Bunting. Of the others, Chez Vrony ran OK, while Scrooby Doo just ran into one but is getting frustrating. Bring Sweets ran OK too but will need further at Southwell and a couple of lbs off his back. Back to earth with a little bit of a bump, -8.5pts.

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 16:50 York David Barron is in fine form at present with 5 winners from his last 17 runners. He saddles two in this contest but I really think that SHESASTAR has the best chance of the two here by a fair margin and is worthy of supporting. The 3yo has come along slowly having started her handicapping career in nurseries as a 2yo off a mark of 63, but her form has really sprung to life with a winter on her back. She's had four runs in 2011 and all of them have been extremely promising. The first of which was her reappearance effort in which she acquitted herself in fine fashion to finish only a length behind; even though it was after an absence, over a trip too sharp for her and on ground too fast. She was raised 2lbs for that effort and proved that run was no fluke, running very well over 6f at Newmarket in what has turned out to be a cracking race for the grade. Shesastar finished 4th and the three ahead have all won since, the winner now rated 96. It was a sign of things to come and she finally got off the mark for 2011 at Doncaster over the 6f trip off a mark of 70. The ground that day was too quick for her and she got outpaced mid-race, but showed a lot of guts and with a lot of work to do, she ended up an easy winner. She was raised 5lbs for that effort which on the face of things seemed a little lenient, but she was unable to cash in on a mark of 75 when a close 3rd over the same 6f at Doncaster. It's that run however that shows her to be of serious interest at this 7f trip. She was doing all her best work in the closing stages and again came back from an unpromising position to finish a length behind (runner up in that race has since won, winner finished 2nd on next start). It looks the obvious next step for connections to try 7f and although she's 8lbs higher than her last winning mark, there's definitely scope for improvement at this trip and I potentially see her being rated in the upper 80's in the near future. The ground isn't going to be on the fast side today which will suit her (won on good to soft as a 2yo) and will help her maintain a decent position. Jamie Spencer (25% strike rate for the yard) takes the ride and he was on board for her Doncaster success. Graham Gibbons who usually rides David Barron horses is on the other he saddles in La Zamora, but I think it in no way means that she's the stables first choice and I believe she was rather flattered by the progress she made from the rear last time. Shesastar should be around a 6/1 shot in a race such as this, as conditions will ideal. Lady Paris is the only one I'm worried about but this is a considerable step up in grade and she has a fair weight to carry now. It's a 19 runner race so there's likely to be a couple more who spring back to form but I think my selection could be well in front of the handicapper at the trip and at double figure odds, is worthy of a nice EW wager. SHESASTAR; 2pt EW @ 10/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 15:40 York REQUINTO gets stacks of weight for being a 2yo and I was really impressed with his win in the Molecomb at Glorious Goodwood. He set a course record that day and is quick enough to handle this race, especially off a featherweight 8st 1lbs and I can envisage him being the first 2yo since 2007 to win the Nunthorpe. Undefeated over 5f, his defeats have come when running over 6f and not settling. They were both on faster ground too which also not be his liking. He's bred for speed (his dam was a 5f Group winner as a 2yo) and showed he had that in abundance when making the switch to Group company at Glorious Goodwood. They went off at an extreme pace (there was at least four runners who liked to make it from the front). Requinto had previously been one of them but had to settle for a position tracking the leaders. When switched wide he picked up in taking fashion and won going away. It was taking run for many reasons. Firstly, his trainer had previously stated that he preferred to bowl along in front but on that occasion he couldn't and still won, obviously he's matured mentally. A juvenile course record was also set dating back to 1990. Interestingly, it was half a second faster than the time Kingsgate Native set in that race when he contested it in the same season he won the Nunthorpe as a 2yo and although a point not to be taken too literally, it does show that Requinto is about at the required level to take a hand in this. Requinto was supplemented into the race at considerable cost to connections and although they're hardly poor, they don't often waste their entries. The slightly softer going conditions hold no fears for him too, as he trounced his competition on Yielding ground in Ireland. He carries at least 19lb less than any other horse in this race and it could pay dividends, especially with the race likely to be run at a good clip. In my view, Requinto deserves to be 2nd favourite but at a much shorter price, 5/1 would be fair so the 7/1 on offer is a cracking price. Extremely hopeful of a big run and although Hoof It will be difficult to beat, he's not really value. REQUINTO; 3pts Win @ 7/1 Bet365 (bog)