BBOTD Friday 10th

[Quackers]

3.15 York Gordonsville e/w 16/1 Bet365 I really like the look of Gordonsville in this race. He has always found anything over a mark of 82 beyond him and although he runs in this race off a mark of 84, the jockey takes off 3lbs which puts him on 81. His last 2 wins have come off 82 on varying ground, so whether it rains or not overnight it should not make much difference to this horses chance in the race. He has had 2 runs now since returning from nearly a year off the track and should be spot on here. The Jim Goldie yard continue in good form and will look to carry that form into Royal Ascot next week. As for the opposition, there are plenty in this race that are either unproven over the trip or stepping up in grade which can't be said for the selection. Gordonsville is proven at a higher grade and is very consistent so should run his race. There are plenty in this race though that do look likely to progress further in time and that are steadily improving but at this moment, Gordonsville should be able to hold his own against these. Hawk Mountain who beat the selection last time out is worse off at the weights here but should be thereabouts again. Dazinski looks the other main danger along with Descaro. Bollin Judith the likely favourite is up 7lbs to a career high mark, for an easy win in a poor looking race last time out. Obviously this is a very competitive race but Gordonsville can be relied upon to run his race most of the time. He may find 1 or 2 too good here but I expect him to at least make the frame. He may be one of the oldest horses in the race, but he can teach these young pretenders how its done.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 4.25 York Rocket Rob 5/1 William Hill Rocket Rob's last 2 runs suggest a win is around the corner. He endured a terrible passage LTO and did extremely well to get as close as he did. With a clearer run today he should go very close in this. He looks on a nice mark and I expect him to run a big race here.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 18:15 Goodwood Stagecoach Danman - 1pt win @ sp Stagecoach Danman looks well handicapped for this ride the extra trip will suit him well here after being placed in all 3 starts it all looks well to get the first win here for Mark Johnston

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Going against Hereforthehep: 6:15 Goodwood - Bow River Arch Stats for this are quite strong; Noseda is 38% win over the past 14 days, he and Ryan Moore have an excellent partnership - to be on 25% wins over the past 5 seasons of 166 rides is quite astounding! This year, it is 40% and 3yo partnership is 57%! Hopefully the RP forecast isn't too wrong and she starts around 6/1. Win @ sp

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Kazbow 3.15 York 14-1 Bet365 BOG Each Way Finished last season with a 10 length win over 15f, making all and staying on strongly for Kieren Fallon. That was a victory off 79, beating My Mate Max. It had already beaten that horse but only by a head off 73 over 14f so must have improved some next time out and both races were off level weights. It has shown consistency at a lower level (class 5) with a lot of 2nd places and also won over 12f at Kempton. It ran in a class 2 handicap last time out but was nowhere but for me would have needed that run and was eased when well beaten off a new mark that was 11lb higher than that 10 length win (90) and now races off 88 today. I see the main dangers as Hawk Mountain and Dazinski, both having previous good form at the track. They are 10-1 and 14-1 respectively. Some rivals such as Bollin Judith and Descaro look like class 5 handicappers only and could struggle at this level. I am hoping Fallon breaks well from stall 8 and dictates from the front as poor horses often fail to pick up a front runner here on a galloping track.

[TheRat]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th

Going against Hereforthehep: 6:15 Goodwood - Bow River Arch Stats for this are quite strong; Noseda is 38% win over the past 14 days, he and Ryan Moore have an excellent partnership - to be on 25% wins over the past 5 seasons of 166 rides is quite astounding! This year, it is 40% and 3yo partnership is 57%! Hopefully the RP forecast isn't too wrong and she starts around 6/1. Win @ sp

I am going tomorrow and spent a lot of time going through the card. Pretty tough but really like this one for the reasons you pointed out and that she is one that will stay where as question marks over a few. Good luck Edit - Not entering this up for the comp Graham, just saying!! Sorry

[Lars]

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 4:35 Sandown - Shallow Bay - e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365) The inclusion of a Henry Cecil runner means there's a nice price about Walter Swinburn's 4 year old, Shallow Bay. He's a progressive, lightly-raced type who looks to have a lot more to give, especially after returning this year with a couple of more than useful efforts in similarly hot handicaps. Whilst this won't be an easy race to win, this horse looks to have more than enough ability to go well at a track where he's run well before over a furlong shorter. On that day (last September), he finished a 3l 2nd to a Sir Michael Stoute trained horse named Conduct. That horse sluiced in next time out in a very competitive 16 runner handicap off a mark of 85, and he looks sure to be competing at a high level once he returns to the race track. My selection looked to be running all over the field that day and just found the Sandown hill too much in the end, but was still clear of the rest. The form of the race is good though and he looks more than capable of defying a rating of 86. Shallow Bay was done at 1.01 on seasonal reappearance (off 3lbs lower), when getting caught in the closing stages of a 1m 2f contest at Windsor. He seemed to steal a march on the opposition when slipping clear at the 3 pole, however, the lack of race fitness may have told in the end and the well backed favourite went down to a well-treated John Dunlop horse. That wasn't a bad effort though and at least confirmed that he had trained on well. Next time out, over the same trip at Newmarket, Shallow Bay was 7 lengths off the pace. However, the winner landed the spoils by 6 lengths and since ran a cracking ¼ length 2nd at Listed level (at Haydock when I was there), so the form isn't bad at all. In time, Shallow Bay should get 1m 4f at least, but for now, the 1m 2f he faces here should suffice. The pace is likely to be good and if he can travel like he has on many an occasion, I think he'll relish the stiff uphill finish that he faces here. If he's under the pump coming to the hill, he'll definitely lose. He's up another couple of pounds in the handicap for his recent exploits but having had a 4 week break from racing, he should be freshened up sufficiently to improve again. Both of those recent runs came within 2 weeks of each other and that may have been too much. Eddie Ahern comes to Sandown for just 2 rides and has a cracking record for Swinburn here. They've had 2 winners, 3 seconds and 1 third from just 9 runners here, including a 12/1 winner from their only partnership at this course during 2011. He rides the track well and is a more than capable jockey, when he's not protecting their marks! Swinburn has his string in good order and boasts a fine record at the track. This is his only runner on course today. All Action is the obvious danger but he's under-priced and still shortening. Another small each-way bet for me. Not exactly a great day for punting with a lot of confidence but Shallow Bay has lots more to give and looks overpriced at 8/1.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Magical Macey - 4.25 York (0.5ew 20-1 WH BOG) Stealing one of Monte's selections here (see his thread). Although this horse's form does appear 'hit and miss', I think he may have had a terrible draw on each of his last three starts. Musselburgh - drawn 4 of 14, came 5th. First four home were 13-12-14-11! Thirsk - drawn 5 of 15, came 5th. First four home were 15-17-4-11 (Lost In Paris was the one drawn 4 and he was actually the one who won with the plumb draw at Musselburgh!) Goodwood - drawn 10 of 11. First three home were 7-2-4. Not handicapped so badly by the draw today, I think he could well feature in the shake-up.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 4.35 Sandown I liked the look of Shavansky's last run as he lloked to be running unto form and might have got closer to the winner if he hadn't hung.Likes it here and is 1 from in handicaps at the track. Stable has also run into form and although he is a bit higher than his last win he has run well of higher marks so should go very close today. 0.5 Pts E/W 14/1 Corals

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 9:00 Cmon You Irons @ Goodwood - Has won six times at this distance and is now down to its lowest mark ever.Ian Mongan takes the ride and has won onboard the horse before.The horse likes a bit of cut in the ground so will be hoping that it keeps raining throughout the day and also has headgear back on 1pt Win @ 10/1 Sky Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 530 York: Pokfulham (4/1 Betfred) Been hurdling all last season and improved greatly as time went on, connections gave a spin on the level at Hamilton last week off a mark of just 54 (Won off 115 over hurdles and ran last time off 130) I used to reckon that you could normally earn a rating of around 40pts higher over timber on average so the 6lb penalty he has here looks well within his compass. One of the rivals today Tenhoo has rattled up a hat-trick and started his stint on 52, now runs off 72 so just shows how these horses can improve pretty quickly, I expect a similar rise for Pokfulham by the time he's done no matter what he does today, this race has plenty of runners but half of them are badly out of form at the moment and cant see him being out the frame for an EW bet to nothing at 4/1, i'll go for the win here though. Only slight worry is the ground, he has done all his best work when there has been a little give or good at worst but connections obvioulsy feel they cant miss the opportunity before the handicapper has a look next week.

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Chepstow 8:05 Ace Serve 7-1 StanJames 1 POINT WIN Red hot trainer Roger Varian's only runner of the day and his top jockey Neil Callan on board. Finished 9th on its first run but actually travelled really well considering, that was at Salisbury over 10f. The step up in trip is sure to suit and i expect a better showing today. Some other horses have more experience but nothing to be too worried about.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Sorry bh for choosing the last race of the day 9:00 Goodwood - Dashwood - Back He has a great chance here. He's in the form of his life and come here searching for the hat-trick. He has been winning nicely, suggesting that he still has improvement left in him. I think he'll be very tough to beat here 1pt win @ 11/10 William Hill BOG

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th

Going against Hereforthehep: 6:15 Goodwood - Bow River Arch Stats for this are quite strong; Noseda is 38% win over the past 14 days, he and Ryan Moore have an excellent partnership - to be on 25% wins over the past 5 seasons of 166 rides is quite astounding! This year, it is 40% and 3yo partnership is 57%! Hopefully the RP forecast isn't too wrong and she starts around 6/1. Win @ sp

Haha, this seems to be the punters lounge nap for the day then. Same selection for the reasons above, 1pt win at 6/1 Stan James, at least that's what it was when i put my lucky on earlier.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 3.15 York Staying races can often throw up unusual results with horses tackling trips for the firs time etc. and that was the case when Dark Ranger bolted up at 28/1 in a 2m2f handicap over the Knavesmire. Drop in 2f shouldnt cause to many problems with wins over much shorter trips before. Up 8lb for that easy victory and with the ever reliable Blackstone Vegas back in 2nd a good bench mark and they finished all strung out so looks a good effort on paper and unexposed at staying trips has to be of interest at what looks a very generous price. 0.5pt e/w Dark Ranger 11/1 coral

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th A7.05 Sunday City 1pt Win 10/1 Stan James I just missed the 11/1 with Bet365 and SJ are now the only bookies going 10/1 so I'd better type quick ! The sporitng life rpeort that the horse has been disappointing since its seasonal break but I think that'd more down to it running over a trip further than its best and possiblt on ground too firm. Back to 2 miles today and dropped a few pounds in the handicap, I think the horse can go close tonight. The horse was run well at the course albeit over hurdles and both trainer and jockey coudn't be in better form.

[Tull]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Moheebb - 2.40 York 1pt win 7/1 Betfred. 7/1 with Betfred as I write but a low as 9/2 with Paddy Power. Stayed on well LTO and sure to give a decent showing today. Wouldnt want it too quick as winning form on Good or softer. Currently raining in Leeds so York should probably get some showers. Distance OK and placed placed in 2 races ar York one being a C2. Running off a winable mark today

[Zenyatta]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th YORK 2-40...GALA CASINO STAR...1 PT WIN @ SP ------------------------------------------------- In good form at the moment and 9f is the ideal trip for this horse, well drawn and will go on any ground, has been performing well lately, Hanigan takes the ride today, the last three outings have seen apprentices on. C/D winner and consistent. Should go close. :drums

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Aintree 7.05 War Party win - 8/1 SJ SpBet Record in blinkers reads 1,1,3,1. Won luckily lto, but is a lot better chaser than hurdler and last 2 efforts were just for fitness I think. Should continue to improve and top conditional claims 7lbs. It's a difficult race, but few of the market principals are handicapped to the tilt and I expect my selection to continue improving.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th HAMOODY 4.25 York. 0.5 points each way. A bit hit and miss, but ran a fair enough race last time and so comes into this in decent shape. This track on this ground over this trip is suitbale and the handicapper again puts him in off a mark of 85, which at first glance looks a shade high, but I do feel it gives him every chance of a win if running to his ability. The price is certainly there to take the chance. 22/1 Victor Chandler BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th Marleybow 6.00 Aintree. 0.5 points each way. Consistent runner and should again be able to run to best. Raised 6lb without winning which seems unfair, but still has a great chance in context with this race this evening. The trip and ground's fine and the race should be run to suit, so has a good chance. 6/1 Paddy Power (bog)

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 7.55 Goodwood: Profondo Rosso 1 pt win @ 12/1 VC BOG Horse should strip fitter for reappearance run and despite showing nothing in both handicap starts to date, looks to be on a decent enough mark based on maiden form. Been eased a couple of pounds in the ratings due to recent handicap form and with seasonal debut under it's belt the horse may prove a decent value punt at 12/1 with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 3.10 York - 1pt win Mountain Hiker @ 10/1 (BlueSQ) Will take a gamble on the unexposed Jeremy Noseda trained Mountain Hiker here, despite obvious concerns regarding his reappearance run. He showed a lot of promise last year when an eyecatching 3rd on debut over 10f, before easily scoring over 12f on his next start. Has his problems, such as refusing to enter the stalls, but clearly has a lot of talent. Looks a stayer in the making on pedigree with numerous middle-distance influences, and is a half-brother to Darley Sun. Returned to the track rather oddly over 10f last month at Newmarket and never travelled. Hopefully that run can quickly be put behind him, and with the application of cheekpieces, and a chunky increase in trip, can go a lot better today. Unexposed, and has been nibbled into for this race which is encouraging based on his dodgy return. Jeremy Noseda is in good form - and merely his name by a horse does often have a bearing on the market - but this horse must have a huge chance if putting his best foot forward. Paul Hanagan takes the ride, and shows an impressive 33% strike rate for Noseda (8-24).

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 4.35pm @ Sandown 'Moynahan' 20/1 (VC) Ran a poor race last time out when I thought it was primed for a big run. Time before that as close-up in a decent race. Admittedly there are some exposed horses with potential in today's field but this fella is starting to look on a good mark if can produce it's best and Frankie could be the answer, switching it off and bringing him through slowly to challenge. Overpriced. 1 point win

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th

3.10 York - 1pt win Mountain Hiker @ 10/1 (BlueSQ) Will take a gamble on the unexposed Jeremy Noseda trained Mountain Hiker here, despite obvious concerns regarding his reappearance run. He showed a lot of promise last year when an eyecatching 3rd on debut over 10f, before easily scoring over 12f on his next start. Has his problems, such as refusing to enter the stalls, but clearly has a lot of talent. Looks a stayer in the making on pedigree with numerous middle-distance influences, and is a half-brother to Darley Sun. Returned to the track rather oddly over 10f last month at Newmarket and never travelled. Hopefully that run can quickly be put behind him, and with the application of cheekpieces, and a chunky increase in trip, can go a lot better today. Unexposed, and has been nibbled into for this race which is encouraging based on his dodgy return. Jeremy Noseda is in good form - and merely his name by a horse does often have a bearing on the market - but this horse must have a huge chance if putting his best foot forward. Paul Hanagan takes the ride, and shows an impressive 33% strike rate for Noseda (8-24).

3.15*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th What a gutter.

[Danny Ocean]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th 7.55 Goodwood Club Oceanic - to win 3/1 in store I fancy this to win tonight plus it's been backed and Noseda horse's win most of those times so i will take the chance for the win.

[yorkshire punter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th goodwood645 PROPER CHARLIE 1pt win 16/1 paddy power BPG has had plenty of chances to lose its maiden tag but has run respectably on a few occasions. this race will not take much winning and i reckon this runner is overpriced. local trainer knows the score round this track and is the value bet for me against the two market principles.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 10th

Haha' date=' this seems to be the punters lounge nap for the day then. Same selection for the reasons above, 1pt win at 6/1 Stan James, at least that's what it was when i put my lucky on earlier.[/quote'] Lazy post, reasonings must be your own and the price has to be taken at the time it is posted. Just have a read of the rules mate please.