Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May

[Bathtime For Rupert]

4.20 Newbury - 1pt e/w Azameera @ SP (Currently 15/1 on Betfair) Absolute minefield of a fillies handicap, but Azameera looks overpriced to be here if you can excuse her 2nd start, when beaten favourite at Newmarket. This Clive Cox trained filly by Azamour was unfancied on debut when going off a 33/1 shot at Salisbury, but there was no fluke about her success as she fought greenness to score quite cosily in the end. This race looks rock solid with plenty of winners in behind her that day. Among these, Aneedah 2nd (Now rated 97), Sylvestris 3rd (Rated 80 but chased home Theyskens' Theory at York yesterday), Inimitable Romance 4th (Won by over 3l next time out), Baqaat 5th (Won at Epsom last time out), Beatrice Aurore 8th (Now rated 91), and Saint Helena 10th (Won twice since and ran in Lingfield Oaks trial last time). Was favourite at Newmarket next time out, but was up against the colts, slowly away, was reported to hang left throughout, and came back with a sore shoulder. The excuses were there, as she finished 7th of 8, 5 3/4l behind the winner. However, this was a good little race too. The winner, Azrael, is now rated 93 (won off 83 that day), and it wasn't a bad time either. I don't think a mark of 78 is beyond her at all, and the way she won first time out gives hope on her first run of the season. Quick ground should suit. Azamour did most of his winning on a fast surface, and her dam was by Green Desert. If you can forgive her that run, she's back amongst her own sex today, on a surface that will suit, and hopefully will be ready to go well at a price.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 1:45 Newmarket - San Cassiano - 1.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365) A very decent 1 mile handicap in the offing here. The one catching my eye at tasty odds is the Ruth Carr trained 4 year old, San Cassiano, who like most of his stablemate's, looks exceptionally well handicapped following a few disappointing efforts when the yard couldn't buy a winner. However, the excellent Ruth Carr has witnessed her string improve dramatically in recent weeks, with 6 winners from her last 17 runners giving her an excellent 35% strike-rate for the past fortnight, with a massive LSP of +£44.50p. She's on a run that God would be proud of and now makes a 350 mile round trip to run just the one horse at Newmarket, which looks mightily interesting given that she's only had 1 previous runner on the Rowley mile, and that was a 10/1 winner this time last year. The omens look good and this fellow certainly has enough raw ability to get involved here at a course he's built to love. San Cassiano was previously trained by Ralph Beckett, but proved most disappointing after winning a 6 furlong maiden in impressive style on debut. He ran well next time out as a 2 year old but failed to make any sort of impression when he returned next season, failing miserably in bids to defy handicap marks of 89 & 90, before running poorly in a 7f claimer on his final start for that yard. Connections sent him to Ruth Carr's yard for a change of scenery and it had an instant effect, as he won a competitive 13 runner handicap over a mile at Ripon in the style of a decent horse, scoring by 2 lengths off a career low mark of 78. He reappeared a week later under a 6lb penalty at this track, but ran on the July course. That race represented a step up in class but he showed great determination to get the win despite taking the lead a furlong out and being quickly headed. He does shape as if in need of further than this trip, but a the Rowley Mile should provide a good enough test and he has the ability to go close. San Cassiano then ran a decent race at Listed level before bombing out at Ripon on his final start of 2010. He's had 3 runs already this season, disappointing on the first couple before running what I thought was a respectable race at Chester last time out. It was a very competitive handicap in which my selection was trapped wide throughout in the hands of Franny Norton, and despite not having the pace to threaten the leaders at any stage, he continued to gallop on until the line and shaped as if a return to form may not be too far away. He wasn't an obvious eye-catcher, but this track is taken to suit him a lot better than Chester did and I feel that it will be a sufficient stamina test, even though he has a reasonable cruising speed too. He's game, responds to pressure, and is suited by conditions. Added to that, he's given a chance by the handicapper and is now just 1lb above his last winning mark, a mark which looked well below him on the day he won. Whether he can truly find his best form is yet to be seen, but the signs from the yard suggest their horses are running themselves back to form and that great to see. I expect Ruth Carr will have plenty of nice priced winners throughout the summer and she's definitely a trainer to keep on your side. Ignore the stats for her throughout the winter and just look forward to making money on her animals during the summer. She can train horses exceptionally well, despite plenty of people claiming otherwise. This will be a tough race to win by all means, with the inclusion of a Godolphin horse, Con Artist, who could be a Group horse in waiting. I just couldn't be taking 4/1 about him and reckon he's far too risky a proposition, even though he warrants maximum respect here given connections and his previous potential. Andrew Balding's Brick Red is another very talented animal but he's likely to have other targets planned for him and may need a bit of rain regardless of that. Hughie Morrison has had a slow start to the year and I wouldn't be too keen on Nazreef here, even though he shaped well in the Spring Cup last time out. He's still entitled to go well and be there or thereabouts, but the price isn't attractive enough for me. There's plenty of others who could have fair cases made for them but I'm going to stick with Ruth Carr here. She books Seb Sanders for the ride and that also looks interesting. He took the reins on San Cassiano in that Listed run at Goodwood and has 2 wins from just 12 rides for this yard. He also rides the track well and is prone to the odd big-priced winner here too. 22/1 is too big for this animal and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go very well. He doesn't have that instant turn of foot that you'd like to see, but he gallops and gallops all day when on song. As previously mentioned, conditions are ideal and I'm pretty sure the track is built to suit him. 12's would be my idea of a fairer price about him and I'll have a small/medium each-way bet on him making the frame. The yards form can't be ignored and this fellow looks to have a decent chance of increasing their recent string of brilliant results. He'll probably sit in either behind or alongside the pace and hopefully it'll give way and he'll gallop on to the line to win. He won't do things overly quick, but he's resolute and capable. Hopefully he'll go well.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 2:50 Newmarket - La Vecchia Scuola - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) Another good race to get stuck into now and I'm siding with Jim Goldie's mare La Vecchia Scuola, who looks to be the stables second string based on the betting, but I think it's all wrong. Whilst this 7 year old disappointed in the Chester Cup over 2m 2½f last time out, I fancy her to come back with a much improved effort at a course where she ran beyond exceptionally well on her only start here. That was in the 32-runner Cesarewitch Handicap over 2m 2f on Good-to-Soft ground, from a 4lb lower mark that she faces today. She was sent off as a 33/1 shot that day and there was fair doubts over her ability to handle the trip, as it's a fair test of stamina. William Buick, who's also on board today, settled her towards the rear and she traveled very well throughout. The pair made steady headway from 3f out and came with a storm run to chase the winner under strong urging from Buick, but despite his best efforts, they couldn't past the winner who had 10lbs less weight to carry. That was a cracking effort given the stamina test and cut in the ground, which given her overall profile, doesn't seem to be ideal. Todays ground is much faster, and despite stepping down a ½ mile in trip, this should be a much more suitable test. La Vecchia Scuola was under the pump a fair way from home in the Chester Cup, but that was only her second start of the year and her first in this code. She ran a shocker in the same race last year (after very long layoff, but was supported) before finishing a gallant 2nd over 1m 5½f at the same track next time out (20/1). I'm hoping she'll put in a much better effort here too and the price looks much too big. Despite being a good stayer on the flat, she has plenty of speed too, having won over 1m 4f at Pontefract last August. The ability to see out this trip on the back of a solid gallop is vital, and I've no doubts that she'll be able to travel sweetly on the back of a quick gallop. I'd like to see similar tactics as used in the Cesarewitch, where she was held up before coming with a late run to put in a career best performance. Whether they'll do that is debatable as she raced handy on her previous couple of starts on the flat. Goldie's yard seem in good knick and they're making a hell of a journey (750 mile round trip) to run this mare and Nanton. That horse hasn't won for a year and a half, although he has raced in some good company in the mean time. He's still a couple of pounds higher than his last win and although he shaped quite well over a shorter trip last time out, I think the two Goldie runners are priced the wrong way around. I could list danger after danger all night, but I'm going to take a small each-way chance on La Vecchia Scuola. I think this race will pan out in her favour much more than her outing last time out and the return to Newmarket can only be a plus. The one worry is the ground may be too fast, as perfectly good ground is where she does most of her winning, but she's run well on GF before. William Buick knows the horse having ridden her on two occasions and I think it's a positive to see him booked again, especially as he's riding well of late. I thought she'd be around 14's and certainly not 25/1 (28/1 non best-odds with SJ), which looks too generous. Small each-way bet for me and hopefully she'll go well. A little bit of rain would do no harm either (light showers possible).

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 2:35 Newbury - Kingsgate Choice - 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (StanJames) Can't see 25/1 lasting long for this fellow, as it's much too big and only available with the one firm. Kingsgate Choice was originally thought of as a top-class sprinter, expected to make it into a Nunthorpe Stakes competitor, and despite having plenty of poor runs to his name since originally showing loads of promise, he looks thrown in here with a mark of 87. His recent efforts warrant that mark but I think he made a decent return to action when finishing a 6¾ length 11th in similarly competitive handicap from a poor draw at Ascot. Whilst he was outpaced in last and looking likely to stay there coming to the 2 pole of the 6 furlongs, he was running on quite well inside the last and made plenty of ground. He's fully entitled to come on for that outing and did seem to need it last year. On his second run last year, he ran in 5f handicap off a mark of 74 at Ffos Las, and despite taking a strong hold, he ran out a more than convincing winner. He beat nothing that day but he done it in a grand style. Next time out, over 5 furlongs at Windsor, Kingsgate Choice lined up off a mark of 81. Whilst it wasn't a race that would hold a candle to much of the form on offer elsewhere in this race, the then 3 year old colt won it in a very nice style once again, beating a horse named Humidor, who was most progressive after that and was last seen beating the current favourite for todays race with a bit to spare off 87. My selection absolutely hammered him that day and only found top gear in the final furlong, so a return to anything like his best will see this 25/1 price-tag look absolutely huge. Whether he's capable of doing that is unknown but I like backing horses who've shown little since being initially impressive. Talent doesn't just fade away in a few runs and this horse always looked like he'd make into a nice 6f sprinter. He disappointed in 2 of his 3 subsequent runs but in-between those efforts was a fine 1½l 5th place in a similar handicap to this, off a 3lb higher mark (over 5f). Kingsgate Choice met trouble in running that day and still ran very well, shaping as if a step up in trip would do no harm. I think he's given a very big chance here and should be perfectly suited to conditions. 4 year olds have won all 4 runnings of this race and with 8 of the 19 runners being that age, I think the recent trend will be holding up. Kingsgate Choice has only had 9 outings and is only 4 year old, so there's still a high possibility of much more progression to come. Todays galloping track should suit him perfectly and he's likely to get a strong pace to run at, which is usually the case in sprints anyways! Assuming he comes back to anything like his best, he has a great chance of picking up one of the four available places. He's running off a mark of 87 but Kieren Fox takes off a handy 3lbs to make him look weighted even better. Fox is a very good young jockey and has 1 win and 2 seconds from just 5 rides around the Rowley course, the winner being a 25/1 shot also. Hopefully that's a good omen! He also has a very good record on the turf for trainer John Best, with 11 winners and 11 places from just 75 rides, giving the combination an impressive 15% strike-rate and a massive LSP of +£56. Best seems to have his yard in great shape, with 4 winners from his last 12 outings, including wins at odds of 8/1, 10/1 and 12/1. If this horse is to reach his potential then he's surely going to go close at some stage soon and hopefully it's today. Early on in the season should be his time of year and I think that recent run should have him spot on. I'm playing medium each-way stakes here and fingers crossed that he justifies it. He's a very talented horse and it'll all come together some day soon. Too many dangers to list once again but Summerinthecity (33/1) could be another lively outsider. I'll just stick with the one though.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 3:45 Newbury: Worthadd 1pt e/w 25/1 Ladbrokes Worthadd might be worth chancing. Its a big step up on what he has achieved so far, yet he has several things going for him that could make the journey over from Italy worthwhile. He is race fit and according to his connections, he has strengthened up since his three year old days. On pedigree he will not be out of place as his sire is Dubawi, who has a good record of producing top class milers. Looking back through the records this could be trainer Vittorio Caruso's first runner in this country, he has not had one in the past five years, so he must think it worthwhile to travel even if it is a Group One. Looking at Worthadd's form most of his races have been on a soft or even a heavy surface, the better ground today could also see some improvement.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May Am a great fan of Canford Cliffs, but first time out, so unproven this year, not run for 9 months; should surely be odds-against? Not at his best on first two starts last term when too fresh. Dick Turpin showed his well being and has possibly improved since last season, when beating Cityscape at Sandown. Travelled very well there and value for more than distances indicate. Beat his stable companion at Newbury on their reappearances as 3 year olds. Looks outstanding value at 7/2. Judging by times yesterday, the ground was no firmer than good. And with more rain possible today, Cityscape looks over-priced at over 20/1 on betfair. He looked in need of his first outing at Sandown, yet gave Dick Turpin a fright there. His form isn't that far below the best of these, granted, it has come in a grade lower (impressive). Stature and the fact he hasn't had many starts, mean there may be more improvement in him. Twice Over showed in a slowly run Champion Stakes last season that he has more speed than the average 10 furlong horse. It's possible he could have the run of the race more than some of his main rivals. Likely to be prominent. Has been placed in this before. Worthy of a saver at around 8/1. My 100% book: Canford Cliffs 11/8, Dick Turpin 11/4, Twice Over 7/1, Cityscape 12/1, Red Jazz 33/1, Worthadd 33/1, Premio Loco 66/1, Shakesperean 66/1, Balthazaar's Gift 200/1, Beacon Lodge 200/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May Cityscape 27/1 now!:eek Well worth a chance on the ground.:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 3:10 Newbury: State Opera 1pt win 28/1 & Rastaban 1pt win 28/1 both Stan James Both look to have a lot to prove, however with snippits of form to their name and big name trainers they could be considerably better than they have shown in limited opportunities to date. State Opera showed little on his seasonal debut and has been dropped six pounds as a result. He ran pretty well the first time he saw the racecourse at Hamilton and if he can recapture that he could go close. Mark Johnston's horses can sometimes bounce back from a poor run. Rastaban is another that although very lightly raced does know how to win which is a good sign. And his effort at Ffos Las was fair form. He was seven lengths behind Glen's Diamond on his first outing this season but that one went on to better things at Chester.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 1.35 Thirsk Ruth Carrs team remain in strong form and has a very good strike rate at this course with 9 winners from 55 runners here and a 16% strike rate with a LSP of +19.63, and this year has seen that increased to 3 from 8 38% and a LSP of +29.50. Those statistics are quite interesting as a lot of Ruth Carrs runners make the running and this track is well suited to front runners and that is exactly what I expect Conor Zur to do today from a reasonable draw, he has proved himself a tought front runner that is hard to pass when in fine form like this, up a furhter 5lb for latest win which was fairly bloodless and that could be easily defied today. Obviously wont want ground going to much softer. 4pt win Conor Zur 11/4 hills 4.25 Thirsk Wrote this about Beat The Bell few weeks back at Epsom; Beat The Bell is a horse that caught my eye last season looking like a handicap good thing on debut for the Barron yard at Musselburgh when well backed and had a tardy start but absolutely rattled home. Ran well in Ayr Bronze Cup and then went back to Musselburgh where he duly won only got put up 2lb for that effort but wasnt seen again till 2 weeks ag when he ran a blinder for 3rd. Record fresh isnt great so can be expected to come on for that and will need to again having been put up a further 2lb but still looks open to more even at the ripe age of 6. Duly ran a blinder of a race to finish second, well clear of the remainder. Up a further 2lb so of course needs to go on again but looks the sort to do just that. You can completely forget run last time out at Chester when poorly drawn. 2pts win Beat The Bell 13/2 betfred 3.45 Newbury Now I know Canford Cliffs is the best horse in the race, but Dick Turpin has beaten him 2 times out of 3 and this is mainly because he goes better fresh and he is also versatile as far as tactics where as Canford has proved a little tricky at times and although did appear to settle better latter in the season his record fresh is worrying at a shade of odds on and you know with Dick Turpin you will get a run for your money if nothing less he has the benefit of a run and Canford Cliffs is being aimed at bigger prizes later in the season so whether he is fully wound up for this has to be questioned. 2pt win Dick Turpin 7/2 hills 5.10 Newmarket Attwater had a winner this week to suggest the yard are going well enough. Sunshine Always was given a stinker of a ride 4 starts back by this apprentice and has since ran 2 solid efforts again rider not looking that great for her 5lb claim which is of course a major concern today. Ran a poor race last time out but is too well handicapped to ignore if that was a blot, has placed off marks 10lb+ higher and although most form has come on AW limited turf starts have been just as promising so at a big price just cant be ignored. 1pt e/w Sunshine Always 14/1 hills

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 2.50 Newmarket - 1pt win Tactician @ 7/1 (Hills) I'm going to stick with the team who provided me with a 7/1 winning NAP yesterday, in this competitive staying handicap over 1m6f. Michael Bell and Hayley Turner combined to get Communicator home yesterday, and I fancy them to have another winner here. Tactician, owned by The Queen, has scope for further improvement, with only 7 career starts to date. He showed promise at 2, but it always looked as if his future would be over longer trips (by Motivator), and confirmed this by winning his first start at 3, over 11f at Newbury. He beat two useful types in All Action and Momkinzain. Followed this up with a solid midfield (8/18) run behind Dandino at Ascot over a mile and a half. Stepped up in trip again, to today's distance, at Sandown, but could only stay on to take a well held 2nd behind Bowdler's Magic. It was only a 5 runner race, though, and the winner got a soft lead and was able to dominate the race from the front. I suspect Tactician is best coming off a strong pace. Improved again to have that rival comfortably beaten at York, when pulling a few lengths clear of the 3rd horse, when narrowly beaten by Mount Athos. The field was very well strung out that day with useful types in behind. Mount Athos is now 19lbs higher than that win, so it was a very creditable run from Michael Bell's charge. Mount Athos also ran a very sound 4th in the Chester Cup from an uncompromising position. Tactician then went to Doncaster over 1m7f on his final start of the season. He stayed on well from the rear to get into 5th of 16 behind Precision Break. Had a wide draw that day, even over a marathon trip, and it was a very solid run having been raised 8lbs for his York run. The way the horses finished quite tightly together that day suggests there wasn't a huge amount of pace on, which certainly wouldn't have suited my selection (6l separating the first 9 home). Hayley Turner is back on board today. She knows the horse well and is riding well at the minute. Michael Bell is also coming into some hot form with a winner, three seconds and a possibly unlucky close 4th from his last 6 runners. His only win came when fresh, the yard is in good form, he's consistent, he stays well, and has the potential to improve further at 4. There should be pace in the race with Battleoftrafalgar, Kazbow, Herostatus and Trovare in the field - along with plenty who like to race just in behind. I don't think the race is as strong as some he competed in last year, and should go extremely well indeed.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 3.10 Newbury 8/12 won LTO (other 4 were 3,3,4,6) 3/12 favs (1 was cofav) winner profile 4 runs, won cl3, 10f 3 runs, won cl4 8f 4 runs, won cl3 8f 3 runs won cl3 10f 5 runs won cl5 7f 4 runs won cl4 10f 5 runs won cl4 7f 5 runs won cl5 10f 5 runs won cl4 12f 4 runs won cl4, 12f 12 runs won cl2, 14f 3 runs won cl5, 10f so 3-5 runs with a win cl4 or above 8f or over favoured, those who have won over 10f even more favoured shortlist is: Al Kazeem, 2nd LTO, 3 runs, won Cl4, 8f State Opera Unpl LTO, 3 runs, won cl5, 8f Fulqur 7th LTO, 4 runs, won cl4, 8f Rastaban, 3rd LTO, 3 runs, won cl5, 8f so no winners over 10f which is interesting as some of the leading horses only won over 7f so stamina not confirmed. of the 4 above, the 2 that meet the key trends are Final Bets Al Kazeem 13/2 >Bet365 0.5pts win Fulqur 6/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 5.35 Thirsk This race looks between the 2 at the head of the market both coming off a recent win, Easterby's Trading hasnt tackled the mile yet and has to defy a 10lb rise in the weights, unlike Fire Crystal who won over the mile at Bath and only risen by 3lb here. Decent apprentic HArley on board also. Fire Crystal 7/1 Bet365 5.0 Thirsk Last night Gary Bartley showed hsi worth again with 2 decent 2nd places on 2 outsiders, he rides Go go Green here for guvnor Jim Goldie who is in decent form. The high draw should help and 20/1 around for this one may prove to be value in an open race. Go Go Green 20/1 Bet365 1.35 Thirsk Ruth Carr's horses have been running well of late and this is one of her better ones and can improve again today following its recent Beverley win. Can make all round here and gets the trip ok. Cono Zur 5/2 Bet365 8.10 Doncaster Fahey has Fishforcompliments tonight and the key could be the 7lb claim the Laura Barry takes off here, giving it a racing mark of 73, its lowest mark for donkeys years and i notice its owned by the trainer himself! Drawn ok in the middle of a large field. The break is also no problem as last 2 seasons finished 2nd on 1st turf outing of the season. Fishforcompliments 25/1 Bet365 EW Lucky 15 on these 4 today

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May Ship's Biscuit 2.00 Newbury 5-1 Bet365 (BOG) Akmal is decent at this level but probably needs 2m to be fully effective, Apprimus and Western Pearl look to have little chance and are passed over, Drunken Sailor has had a lot of racing for a 6 yr old and I'm not fully convinced despite its 110 rating. Seems to go well on this ground but often finds one better. Polly's Mark an average listed horse but when stepped up to Group races has been found out and too short at the odds. Ship's Biscuit needs to improve but is lightly raced and only 4 yr old and that age group do well here. Won a maiden on gd-fm and later finished 1/2 length behind Polly's Mark. 2nd to Harris Tweed over 14f last time out, decent form with that running well at Chester when beaten by St Nick recently. Has the scope to improve past all of these and 5-1 looks value in a poor race. (just gone 6-1 Blue Square) Stoute's horses could just be coming back to form although some look like they need a run. A few placed recently, including Apace at York and Carlton House won well. I fancy this at the price with Moore on board.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 14:35 Newbury Spanish Bounty took advantage of his dwindling handicap mark last time out by winning a 14 runner race at Windsor over 6 furlongs in impressive fashion. Won the race by 5 lengths and although he faces a 12lb rise for the win, he is still handicapped to win again having won off a 3lbs higher mark previously. The second placed Mymumsaysimthebest has franked the form since by winning next time out off the same mark at Goodwood. Spanish Bounty has ran in this race the last two years and that has been his only two visits to the course. He finished 6/11 in 2009 off a mark of 92 and 6/13 last year off a mark of 90 but it was an improved effort than the previous year since he wasn't beaten as far. Off a mark of 87 today so he is definetely capable of producing a big run here today. Usually in need of them run so the fact he won on his seasonal reappearance is a positive sign as he is likely to strip fitter for today's race. His best form has been on quicker ground so he will appreciate today's good to firm conditions. 1pt E/W Spanish Bounty @ 11/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 2.35 NEW~ Fancy Hannon horses in this a win bet at 14/1 on stable jock Huges ride & FLEETING ECHO e/w on YER WOMAN 20/1 fair run lto can improve big price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May Newbury 3.45 Twice Over 0.75pt win - 8/1 Bet365 SJ Twice Over 0.75pt place - Betfair SP (3 places) Even if he needs the 1m2f, I think he's a bit overpriced here. Canford Cliffs wasn't at his best on seasonal reappearance last year and if he's ever going to get beat, it's today. Dick Trupin is also a danger, but it looks a 3 horse race to me and the place on Betfair should get most of the stake back. Cecil's are flying.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 3.50 THIRSK~ ROKER PARK 12/1 WH is very well handicapped has been a long time since in the winners enclosure but has bits of form and good e/w chance if in the mood and there has been money for it.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May PARLOUR GAMES 3.25 Newmarket. 1 point win. Improving and the stable seem to be in for a much better season this year. Trip and ground not a problem and should have too many guns for his rivals today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May

2.50 Newmarket - 1pt win Tactician @ 7/1 (Hills) I'm going to stick with the team who provided me with a 7/1 winning NAP yesterday, in this competitive staying handicap over 1m6f. Michael Bell and Hayley Turner combined to get Communicator home yesterday, and I fancy them to have another winner here. Tactician, owned by The Queen, has scope for further improvement, with only 7 career starts to date. He showed promise at 2, but it always looked as if his future would be over longer trips (by Motivator), and confirmed this by winning his first start at 3, over 11f at Newbury. He beat two useful types in All Action and Momkinzain. Followed this up with a solid midfield (8/18) run behind Dandino at Ascot over a mile and a half. Stepped up in trip again, to today's distance, at Sandown, but could only stay on to take a well held 2nd behind Bowdler's Magic. It was only a 5 runner race, though, and the winner got a soft lead and was able to dominate the race from the front. I suspect Tactician is best coming off a strong pace. Improved again to have that rival comfortably beaten at York, when pulling a few lengths clear of the 3rd horse, when narrowly beaten by Mount Athos. The field was very well strung out that day with useful types in behind. Mount Athos is now 19lbs higher than that win, so it was a very creditable run from Michael Bell's charge. Mount Athos also ran a very sound 4th in the Chester Cup from an uncompromising position. Tactician then went to Doncaster over 1m7f on his final start of the season. He stayed on well from the rear to get into 5th of 16 behind Precision Break. Had a wide draw that day, even over a marathon trip, and it was a very solid run having been raised 8lbs for his York run. The way the horses finished quite tightly together that day suggests there wasn't a huge amount of pace on, which certainly wouldn't have suited my selection (6l separating the first 9 home). Hayley Turner is back on board today. She knows the horse well and is riding well at the minute. Michael Bell is also coming into some hot form with a winner, three seconds and a possibly unlucky close 4th from his last 6 runners. His only win came when fresh, the yard is in good form, he's consistent, he stays well, and has the potential to improve further at 4. There should be pace in the race with Battleoftrafalgar, Kazbow, Herostatus and Trovare in the field - along with plenty who like to race just in behind. I don't think the race is as strong as some he competed in last year, and should go extremely well indeed.

Boo. Just couldn't get past a 33/1 rag :(:lol

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May

3.10 Newbury 8/12 won LTO (other 4 were 3,3,4,6) 3/12 favs (1 was cofav) winner profile 4 runs, won cl3, 10f 3 runs, won cl4 8f 4 runs, won cl3 8f 3 runs won cl3 10f 5 runs won cl5 7f 4 runs won cl4 10f 5 runs won cl4 7f 5 runs won cl5 10f 5 runs won cl4 12f 4 runs won cl4, 12f 12 runs won cl2, 14f 3 runs won cl5, 10f so 3-5 runs with a win cl4 or above 8f or over favoured, those who have won over 10f even more favoured shortlist is: Al Kazeem, 2nd LTO, 3 runs, won Cl4, 8f State Opera Unpl LTO, 3 runs, won cl5, 8f Fulqur 7th LTO, 4 runs, won cl4, 8f Rastaban, 3rd LTO, 3 runs, won cl5, 8f so no winners over 10f which is interesting as some of the leading horses only won over 7f so stamina not confirmed. of the 4 above, the 2 that meet the key trends are Final Bets Al Kazeem 13/2 >Bet365 0.5pts win Fulqur 6/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win

1st and 3rd. Nice work bowles.:clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May Like Bowlesy i fancied Go Go Green in the 5.00 but now a NR so ill go for PAVERSHOOZ e/w who is still 25's with some bookies which is way to big imo even though only 15 runners now :\. This is a dangerous horse when on a mark in the mid 80's. Pavershooz has a big chance in this C4 race and is a massive price imho.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May

4.20 Newbury - 1pt e/w Azameera @ SP (Currently 15/1 on Betfair) Absolute minefield of a fillies handicap, but Azameera looks overpriced to be here if you can excuse her 2nd start, when beaten favourite at Newmarket. This Clive Cox trained filly by Azamour was unfancied on debut when going off a 33/1 shot at Salisbury, but there was no fluke about her success as she fought greenness to score quite cosily in the end. This race looks rock solid with plenty of winners in behind her that day. Among these, Aneedah 2nd (Now rated 97), Sylvestris 3rd (Rated 80 but chased home Theyskens' Theory at York yesterday), Inimitable Romance 4th (Won by over 3l next time out), Baqaat 5th (Won at Epsom last time out), Beatrice Aurore 8th (Now rated 91), and Saint Helena 10th (Won twice since and ran in Lingfield Oaks trial last time). Was favourite at Newmarket next time out, but was up against the colts, slowly away, was reported to hang left throughout, and came back with a sore shoulder. The excuses were there, as she finished 7th of 8, 5 3/4l behind the winner. However, this was a good little race too. The winner, Azrael, is now rated 93 (won off 83 that day), and it wasn't a bad time either. I don't think a mark of 78 is beyond her at all, and the way she won first time out gives hope on her first run of the season. Quick ground should suit. Azamour did most of his winning on a fast surface, and her dam was by Green Desert. If you can forgive her that run, she's back amongst her own sex today, on a surface that will suit, and hopefully will be ready to go well at a price.

NR :wall

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May In the 8.10 Bond Fastrac has been cut to 4/1 with 888sport and bluesquare while most other are at 10/1-12/1 mark, interesting :unsure