Simao BVB Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 PSG - Nancy PSG in need of a win for their ambition of entering champions league football next year. They're 2 points behind Lyon, who occupies the last place which guarentees place in Champions League qualifying. On the other side we have Nancy who is currently on 18th place which will put them down to Ligue 2 if that doesn't change in last 4 rounds. They're 2 points away from safety. PSG won last 2 games at home against Lyon (1-0) and Valenciennes (3-1), while Nancy came back with zero points in their last 2 away games, losing to Sochaux and St. Etienne with one goal margin. PSG will be without Armand, Ceara, Makelele, Luyindula for tonight's game and Nancy will miss the services of Bracigliano, Alo'o Efoulou, Diakite, while important defender Andre Luiz is doubtful. I believe that PSG who looks good in recent weeks will have too much for Nancy side and the visitors will have to search for points to stay in Ligue 1 elsewhere. Bet: PSG AH -1, 1.7 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 St Etienne +0.5 @1.725 (bait365) 1-1 @6 Hosts are a decent home side who lost only three times this season, even though they haven't met several top sides yet. Lille will be without Gervinho, and considering their recent performance--defeat vs Monaco, draw vs Bordeaux and Lorient--plus the pressure of the contenders a few points behind them, I think guests could fail to take the three points here. 1-1 CS is by far the most frequent home score for hosts (31%), and it is also the most frequent away score for guests (35%). I'll add a few "anytime scorecasts" once the markets are up. Small stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matdusud Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Sochaux-monaco sochaux -0.25 1.96 pinnacle 10/10 Big bet for me here , surprised to see sochaux at almost evens with a half draw cover, sochaux is one of the strongest team at home of the league and seems to be on a really good run, fighting to grab a 6th place,when monaco with very defensive tactis took draws. sochaux still miss anin when monaco will still miss ruffier diarra, maazou and probably park. i think sochaux is too good for this poor monaco team and with a half draw cover, this line offers excellent value :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Tuesday 10 May 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Paris Saint-Germain v AS Nancy (20:00 BST) 1.5 4.53 9.2 99.61 % Saint-Étienne v Lille OSC (20:00 BST) 3.9 3.35 2.2 100.95 % Wednesday 11 May 2011 Home Draw Away BPP AJ Auxerre v Olympique Lyonnais (18:00 BST) 3.9 3.25 2.22 101.46 % Montpellier HSC v FC Lorient (18:00 BST) 2.53 3.2 3.3 101.08 % OGC Nice v AC Arles-Avignon (18:00 BST) 1.46 4.6 9.6 100.65 % RC Lens v Girondins de Bordeaux (18:00 BST) 2.8 3.2 2.88 101.69 % Sochaux-Montbéliard v AS Monaco (18:00 BST) 2.32 3.3 3.6 101.18 % Stade Rennais v SM Caen (18:00 BST) 2 3.45 4.5 101.21 % Toulouse FC v Valenciennes FC (18:00 BST) 2.15 3.25 4.6 99.02 % Olympique Marseille v Stade Brestois 29 (20:00 BST) 1.36 5.2 11.5 101.26 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matdusud Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 agree on laying lille Saint etienne +0.25 2.11 12 bet stakes 5/10 In addition on what has been said below, matuidi will miss for saint etienne (very imortant players), gervinho will be suspended as obraniak his natural substitute, and hazard is doubtfull and dont see garcia taking too much risk before the final of the cup and now with those 4pts of advance With out their wingers the offensive thread will be limited , and i think lille is too short here. i took the +0.25 instad of the +0.5 because i think that saint etienne will really go for the victory here and i think they can do it in the chaudron :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 I like Sochaux chances too, but a draw can't be ruled out, in my opinion, and the +0 AH doesn't have a very good price (obviously). I went for Goal before 32:00 @1.83 (bait365), considering that Sochaux score most of their goals (11) in the first 15min, and 19 in the first 30min. Last week they scored four times before 30' (!), and the time of 1st goal in their eight last games, from newer to older, are: 9', 11', 10', 9', 25', 7', 18', 22'. As for Monaco, they scored 11 goals before 30', and they conceded 9. Time of 1st goal in their last eight games: 25', 11', 73', 21', 12', 30', 19', 23'. A coin on goal in the 1st 10min @5, too. Small to medium stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavieTips Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Lay Lille at odds of 2.2 with Betfair Saint-Etienne have been difficult to beat at home this season. They have only 3 losses in 16 home matches in Ligue 1. You could argue that Lille have more motivation going into this tie, but Saint-Etienne are still fighting for a Europa Cup place, therefore they have something to play for and will be eager to get something from the match. Janot might be a busy man tonight, but Etienne have enough fire-power to trouble Lille too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 St Etienne +0.5 @1.725 (bait365) 1-1 @6 Hosts are a decent home side who lost only three times this season, even though they haven't met several top sides yet. Lille will be without Gervinho, and considering their recent performance--defeat vs Monaco, draw vs Bordeaux and Lorient--plus the pressure of the contenders a few points behind them, I think guests could fail to take the three points here. 1-1 CS is by far the most frequent home score for hosts (31%), and it is also the most frequent away score for guests (35%). I'll add a few "anytime scorecasts" once the markets are up. Small stakes. 1-2 :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matdusud Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 tiring really.....:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simao BVB Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Auxerre - Lyon Tonight will meet two teams that still have something to play for. Auxerre is by no means certain to stay in league 1, so they desperately need any points, while Lyon will want to gain second place to enter next year Champions League directly and not participate in qualifying for the most prestigious football competition. Auxerre is in good form recent weeks, at least at home, where they have 3 wins and 2 draws in last 5 games beating PSG, Sochaux, Montpellier, while Lyon is pretty bad away having only one win in last 5 against Sochaux on 12th of March, recently they lost to Toulouse and PSG. Hosts will be without very important midfielder Pedretti for this game, also missing are Mignot and Chafni. But situation in Lyon is much worse. They're without Diakhate, Kallstrom, Toulalan, Gourcuff, Ederson and latest casualty being Lisandro, for who season might be over. They welcome back Cissokho and Bastos. We all know Auxerre is very hard to beat so i find value in these odds: Bet: Auxerre AH +0,5 1.775 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Nice-Arles Under 2.5 @1.85 (bait365) Reasonable price for a very under-ish game, to me: 71% of Nice games are unders, 60% for home games only. Almost all overs involved opponents scoring twice or more, and Arles-Avignon is unlikely to do so today. Guests got destroyed on the road by the top five of the table, mid-table teams could score twice or more as well, but teams from 13th to 19th place had a much harder time vs AA: three 0-0, one 1-1, and one 2-0--all unders. Six out of the last seven AA games were unders. Relatively small stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Marseille to win by 1 goal @3.5 Draw @4.75 aggregated odds: both @evens Marseille have already conceded six draws at home, mainly vs teams that come to defend. That's exactly what Brest is gonna do tonight, and they already picked four draws in a row. Yet, they have suffered this season vs top 10 on the road, and they lost three games by a 1 goal margin, four by 2 goals, plus one draw and one win. Marseille should be able to take the three points, but it might be tougher than some expect, and if Brest defend well and/or find the net (with in-form Grougi maybe), they might get a point. Small stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPee Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 I like Sochaux chances too, but a draw can't be ruled out, in my opinion, and the +0 AH doesn't have a very good price (obviously). I went for Goal before 32:00 @1.83 (bait365), considering that Sochaux score most of their goals (11) in the first 15min, and 19 in the first 30min. Last week they scored four times before 30' (!), and the time of 1st goal in their eight last games, from newer to older, are: 9', 11', 10', 9', 25', 7', 18', 22'. As for Monaco, they scored 11 goals before 30', and they conceded 9. Time of 1st goal in their last eight games: 25', 11', 73', 21', 12', 30', 19', 23'. A coin on goal in the 1st 10min @5, too. Small to medium stakes. your bets sound good. I have played them too with small stakes. so I wish us good luck. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Lorient +0.5 @1.575 All right, price looks crappy, but to break even Lorient must get at least a point 63.5%, meaning Montpellier must win more than 36.5% to make it a losing bet--which is highly unlikely, to me. Montpellier won only 35% of their home games, and Lorient haven't lost for eleven consecutive games. The Merlus have good firepower with Gameiro and Amalfitano, and Morel is a good asset too. Hosts are on poor form since February, winning only two games (with a single late goal) out of thirteen (draw five, losing six). They generally score at home though, so I'll also put a coin on the good ol' 1-1 @5.5. Small to medium stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Auxerre to win by 1 goal @5 Draw @3.2 aggregated odds: both @evens I agree with Simao BVB that Auxerre is a tough nut to crack (only two defeats at home), and not only Lyon have not been very reliable lately, but they also have a crowded infirmary. I don't see AJA winning by more than one goal though, so I prefer these bets over simply laying Lyon. Small stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Caen +0.5 @1.825 (bait365) Good price for laying free-falling Rennes. They haven't won for eight games, losing five and drawing three. They have yet to show some signs of pulling themselves together. Caen, on the other hand, had a bad April month but got two draws and one win in their last three games, scoring six goals overall. El Arabi and Hamouma have goals in them, and the four to nil win vs Nice plus the poor form of their opponents should give them ideas. Small to medium stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 like your reasoning here Dooble Dutch French Soccer 2010-2011 15W-15L-6P -2.32 units (50.00%) Caen +0.5 (-116) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Caen +0.5 @1.825 (bait365) Good price for laying free-falling Rennes. They haven't won for eight games, losing five and drawing three. They have yet to show some signs of pulling themselves together. Caen, on the other hand, had a bad April month but got two draws and one win in their last three games, scoring six goals overall. El Arabi and Hamouma have goals in them, and the four to nil win vs Nice plus the poor form of their opponents should give them ideas. Small to medium stakes. DoobleDutch, do you really know that much about every european league or you just happen to know when there is nothing else to play on? and please add some meat to your posts, what you write is just what is in the stats. thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 DoobleDutch, do you really know that much about every european league or you just happen to know when there is nothing else to play on? and please add some meat to your posts, what you write is just what is in the stats. thanks! Sorry for contributing too much for your taste, I didn't want to annoy you. If there are qualifying tests before posting in a given league topic, give me the link so that I can take them. I already spend hours on football betting, and I see a huge amount of posts no much more meaty than mine on a daily basis, but I'll work a few more hours for you so that my posts meet your criteria. Tell me how many leagues I am allowed to bet on, too, I would hate to bother you again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoobleDutch Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 I like Sochaux chances too, but a draw can't be ruled out, in my opinion, and the +0 AH doesn't have a very good price (obviously). I went for Goal before 32:00 @1.83 (bait365), considering that Sochaux score most of their goals (11) in the first 15min, and 19 in the first 30min. Last week they scored four times before 30' (!), and the time of 1st goal in their eight last games, from newer to older, are: 9', 11', 10', 9', 25', 7', 18', 22'. As for Monaco, they scored 11 goals before 30', and they conceded 9. Time of 1st goal in their last eight games: 25', 11', 73', 21', 12', 30', 19', 23'. A coin on goal in the 1st 10min @5, too. Small to medium stakes. 1st goal at 21' :beer Nice-Arles Under 2.5 @1.85 (bait365) Reasonable price for a very under-ish game, to me: 71% of Nice games are unders, 60% for home games only. Almost all overs involved opponents scoring twice or more, and Arles-Avignon is unlikely to do so today. Guests got destroyed on the road by the top five of the table, mid-table teams could score twice or more as well, but teams from 13th to 19th place had a much harder time vs AA: three 0-0, one 1-1, and one 2-0--all unders. Six out of the last seven AA games were unders. Relatively small stakes. 3-2 lol Lorient +0.5 @1.575 All right, price looks crappy, but to break even Lorient must get at least a point 63.5%, meaning Montpellier must win more than 36.5% to make it a losing bet--which is highly unlikely, to me. Montpellier won only 35% of their home games, and Lorient haven't lost for eleven consecutive games. The Merlus have good firepower with Gameiro and Amalfitano, and Morel is a good asset too. Hosts are on poor form since February, winning only two games (with a single late goal) out of thirteen (draw five, losing six). They generally score at home though, so I'll also put a coin on the good ol' 1-1 @5.5. Small to medium stakes. 3-1, didn't see that one coming :( Auxerre to win by 1 goal @5 Draw @3.2 aggregated odds: both @evens I agree with Simao BVB that Auxerre is a tough nut to crack (only two defeats at home), and not only Lyon have not been very reliable lately, but they also have a crowded infirmary. I don't see AJA winning by more than one goal though, so I prefer these bets over simply laying Lyon. Small stakes. 4-0 :eek Caen +0.5 @1.825 (bait365) Good price for laying free-falling Rennes. They haven't won for eight games, losing five and drawing three. They have yet to show some signs of pulling themselves together. Caen, on the other hand, had a bad April month but got two draws and one win in their last three games, scoring six goals overall. El Arabi and Hamouma have goals in them, and the four to nil win vs Nice plus the poor form of their opponents should give them ideas. Small to medium stakes. 1-1 :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simao BVB Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 Re: France Ligue 1, 10-11 May 2011 Auxerre - Lyon Tonight will meet two teams that still have something to play for. Auxerre is by no means certain to stay in league 1, so they desperately need any points, while Lyon will want to gain second place to enter next year Champions League directly and not participate in qualifying for the most prestigious football competition. Auxerre is in good form recent weeks, at least at home, where they have 3 wins and 2 draws in last 5 games beating PSG, Sochaux, Montpellier, while Lyon is pretty bad away having only one win in last 5 against Sochaux on 12th of March, recently they lost to Toulouse and PSG. Hosts will be without very important midfielder Pedretti for this game, also missing are Mignot and Chafni. But situation in Lyon is much worse. They're without Diakhate, Kallstrom, Toulalan, Gourcuff, Ederson and latest casualty being Lisandro, for who season might be over. They welcome back Cissokho and Bastos. We all know Auxerre is very hard to beat so i find value in these odds: Bet: Auxerre AH +0,5 1.775 bet365 FT: 4-0 Bet won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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