v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI What do you mean? I am just reading your tread and waiting when it all go bust. Hah, it won't got bust. It's very strongly back tested. .....I hope :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI I follow also with interest :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Likewise keep up good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Well, they're nearly all done and it's been one of those days where the market decides to remind you that, even if you find value, you'll still have days you'd rather forget. Onwards and upwards. One of the greatest shames was Lyngby going up a goal in the second half, only to go on and lose it. Oh well, sometimes the line walks you. I am still confident, as every piece of backtesting I have done has shown a profit over an entire season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anuth Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Don't worry we cannt win every day. Still wait for your late night and morning games pics :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI I am still confident' date=' as every piece of backtesting I have done has shown a profit over an entire season.[/quote'] Which season? How many matches? What leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Which season? How many matches? What leagues? Every league for the past two years available on football data. Yield ranges from 10% to 110% dependent on league. About 25% of matches being played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI About 25% of matches being played. Sorry, I dont get it...? Please explain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Sorry' date=' I dont get it...? Please explain.[/quote'] Bets are chosen about 25% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Bets are chosen about 25% of the time. In other words, your system select about 25% of matches? Or it means that you backtested a sample of about 25% of all the matches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI In other words' date=' your system select about 25% of matches? Or it means that you backtested a sample of about 25% of all the matches?[/quote']Sorry, I'm failing to be clear. The system makes a pick in about 25% of matches, however it varies from league to league. The most profitable league has been Turkey according to the last two years of data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Thank you, now its clear. So, 2 seasons, decent number of leagues, a lot of matches... Sample for backtest looks quite valid. 10-110% yeld sounds impressive. Today was a terrible day for your system (you are flat now, ist it?) but you say "simplicity" is the key... So, it could be. Good luck!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Thank you, now its clear. So, 2 seasons, decent number of leagues, a lot of matches... Sample for backtest looks quite valid. 10-110% yeld sounds impressive. Today was a terrible day for your system (you are flat now, ist it?) but you say "simplicity" is the key... So, it could be. Good luck!:hope We are flat now, yes, which is rather sad after such a good start. I have just run some analysis, both across historical data, and the matches bet on since I started posting here. I have found something interesting - bets below odds of 2.5 are of questionable value. I think this can be put doen to no statistical format being perfectly fit to football, and so the system is over confident when one strong team plays another much weaker team. If we had bet only on over 2.5 odds, we would be up at 40% ROI, and would have made a profit today. So, I intend to remove low odds selections - why risk more for little to no more profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Hi V-zero that makes sense but you will have a lot more variance so more downswing. As a matter of interest do you have any insight on max downswing based on back testing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds If we had bet only on over 2.5 odds' date=' we would be up at 40% ROI, and would have made a profit today. So, I intend to remove low odds selections - why risk more for little to no more profit?[/quote'] It wont fly. Forget it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds It wont fly. Forget it. What do you mean by that? sodabrab: I don't have any to hand, I may mine some to have a look. I'll let you know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Amplifying of odds range never helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Amplifying of odds range never helps. Historically it does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Historically your system was profitable when you started this thread, ist it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds I agree with v-zero on this it is well proven and mentioned on this site regularly that betting on higher odds with a proper betting system works well. I think V-zero's system looks promising but I would do a few more seasons backtesting. Having looked at your picks I think I may have a sense of what you're up to. I wouldn't necessarily change the odds you're betting on until you're clear on variance and max downswing say over a 4 year period. You may increase ROI but reduce number of overall bets and hence you're actual end monetary return may be less. I think deserves a little more analysis before you make any change like that. Just my view you know your system better than anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Historically your system was profitable when you started this thread' date=' ist it?[/quote'] Obviously variance, as I state in the first post, is something that can make a winning system look like a loser. I will take the information from thousands of historical games over the information for the less than one hundred here... You can beat the casino over hundreds of bets... So soda, what do you think my system involves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Exactly. My point was, keep going with your system in its initial state with no limits on odds. We need a bigger sample to make any conclusions is it profitable or not. So, keep going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds I think you're looking at results of chosen teams over long term possibly 1-2 seasons, don't think you're looking at recent performance as a weighting if you were I don't think you would have picked some of the bets. I think you're purely looking at how well they've performed over that period segmenting by both home/away performance to enable you to identify how strong teams are at home away and essentially driving a rating from their wins/losses, goals scored/conceded vs opponent. I may be way off the mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds I think you're looking at results of chosen teams over long term possibly 1-2 seasons' date=' don't think you're looking at recent performance as a weighting if you were I don't think you would have picked some of the bets. I think you're purely looking at how well they've performed over that period segmenting by both home/away performance to enable you to identify how strong teams are at home away and essentially driving a rating from their wins/losses, goals scored/conceded vs opponent. I may be way off the mark.[/quote'] You're well on the mark, that's an apt description of some of the processes. However, the recent performance is naturally weighted by the method, not heavily, by in a way that means more recent performance has the last say, if you will. I did thorough testing to see whether short-term or long-term data was best, and found that mid-long-term data was easily best - team performance appears to be relatively stable over a season. During this period of testing I came to the conclusion that 'form' is almost nonexistant, and merely the fallacious interpretation of recent data as being anything other than a result of natural variance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Deleted Post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Nothing to see here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Now, I would be posting up some selections for tomorrow, but Excel has decided that it doesn't want to use the macro any more, and so I am stuck. Argh! Bear with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Even more variance but think it would be interesting for you to look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Intereting I would delete it now lucky I was online but I have a buddy working for bookie and they look at this site regularly, given the time of night you're probably ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Intereting I would delete it now lucky I was online but I have a buddy working for bookie and they look at this site regularly' date=' given the time of night you're probably ok.[/quote'] Double option? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.