v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Hi V-Zero I assume site doesn't have same level of detail as football-data i.e. shots, corners etc. Any ideas where this could be got for minor leagues No idea, sorry. I don't mine data like that because it is so minorly correlated with future performance. My advice would be to rethink yur models, but I know that will not be welcome advice. Simplicity is king, learn to program, apply iterative methods, amd you can find value. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Thanks for advice appreciate that and great selections thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Thanks for advice appreciate that and great selections thus far. Any time! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Another treat for you all, this time in The Copa Libertadores. Finding a new data source has been like Christmas! :nana Estudiantes @ 2.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Quick catch up on how the results are going: Hougang @ 1.59 WIN: +0.5605 Gaz Metan Medias @ 3.55 LOSS: -1 FC Midtjylland @ 2.56 WIN: +1.482 Braga @ 3.05 WIN: +1.9475 La Equidad @ 3.4 WIN: +2.28 Strike Rate: 55.6% Profit: +7.28 ROI: 40.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Right, back to the picks, Copa Libertadores again. Junior @ 1.8 LDU @ 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Lastly for today, this time in Mexico: M Morelia @ 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI The Kelly criterion is incredibly difficult to apply to simultaneous bets, involving multiples and all sorts of trickery. lol what? it makes no difference how many bets you're making. Anyway, doing really well, nice work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI lol what? it makes no difference how many bets you're making. Anyway, doing really well, nice work. That isn't true. The Kelly criterion assumes you are making one bet, which is settled, before making the next. Kelly-optimal staking for simultaneous bets involves making several singles and multiples. But thanks for the congratulations. A few losers last night bringing the ROI back down somewhat, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI A warning to anybody who may or may not be following this, there's likely to be a s**tload of picks today, and as with yesterday you can expect them to trickle in throughout the day, as I won't have time to sit and do it all at once. :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anuth Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI A warning to anybody who may or may not be following this' date=' there's likely to be a s**tload of picks today, and as with yesterday you can expect them to trickle in throughout the day, as I won't have time to sit and do it all at once. :eek[/quote'] V-Zero, I follow your last three picks last night. The Junior match was so close. There were three red cards in the second half. That made the game change. However, Keep up your good work, mate:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI V-Zero' date=' I follow your last three picks last night. The Junior match was so close. There were three red cards in the second half. That made the game change. However, Keep up your good work, mate:clap[/quote'] Sorry to hear you didn't get on earlier yesterday. Yeah, the Junior match was a real killer with that late goal, still, that happens. A late goal went in my favour yesterday too, so it's all just a matter of taking the winners, and lving with the losers... There's no such thing as a perfect system. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI One in Hungary: Zalaegerszeg @ 1.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Two in Austria: Austria Lustenau @ 1.97 FC Lustenau @ 3.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Two in Croatia: Hajduk Split @1.78 NK Varazdin @1.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Three bets across the Danish leagues: Lyngby @ 6.6 Vejle @ 2.56 Blokhus @ 2.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Two bets in the Dutch Jupiler: Draw @ 3.75 (match between Emmen and FC Eindhoven) Dordrecht @ 2.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI English Conference: Draw @ 3.6 (Fleetwood Ton v AFC Wimbledon) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Three for France, Ligue 2: EvianTG @ 2.26 Le Havre @ 2.2 Istres @ 2.46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Couple for the Irish Premier Division: Bray @ 3.5 Bohemians @ 1.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI From Norway wth love: Lillestrom @ 3.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Three in Poland: Draw @ 4.1 (Legia Warsaw v Korona) Piast Gliwice @ 1.86 LKS Lodz @ 1.56 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI One in Spain: Elche @ 1.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI A couple of Swedes: Orebro @ 2.2 Assyriska @ 3.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI One for the Swiss: Draw @ 3.55 (Kriens v Delemont) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Right, until the late night/early morning games, that's your lot. After all these are in I'll do a recap on how we're doing. Time for coffee! :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Out of interest, who's following these? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI Out of interest' date=' who's following these?[/quote'] I am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI I am. When did you start? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 18 bets, 40.4% ROI When did you start? What do you mean? I am just reading your tread and waiting when it all go bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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