Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April

Bathtime For Rupert · April 5, 2011

4.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Maydream @ SP This is a weak 2 mile handicap, and it might be worth siding with a potentially unexposed horse over this trip. Maydream showed little in maidens, but has benefited from the switch to handicap, to record some respectable performances. Despite finishing 8th on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton over 12f in December, she was only beaten 4 1/2l behind Alternative Choice in a weak, but competitive, handicap. A move which I found a bit strange was to drop the filly back down in trip at Kempton where she raced over 10f next time out. This was again a decent effort, and was better than the form shows. Another very poor race, but Maydream was snatched up just before the 3rd marker, and considering this horse appears to be a galloper - and doesn't do anything very quickly, this gave her no chance over the 10f trip. She picked up again to finish 6th, beaten just over 6l. Trainer Jimmy Fox decided to send her over a much greater distance at Wolverhampton next time. The 2 mile trip looked to be ideal on what she had shown previously, and her sister raced in bumpers, as well as her dam being placed over 12f. She had staying influence in her pedigree also. Unfortunately the Wolverhampton race was the rather farcical affair won by Six Of Clubs. All the jockeys pulled up thinking the race was to be voided as a stricken horse remained on the home turn, but this was not the case. Some jockeys eventually proceeded to continue and finish the race. However, Sam Hitchcott on Maydream was not one of these. Frustrating as we didn't get to see whether she definitely stayed the 2 mile trip. Her most recent run was the closest she has come to winning a race, finishing well to finish a 3/4l second to Little Richard over 12f at Kempton. Again, didn't do anything too quickly, but ran on all the way to the line to be closing at the finish. These races are very moderate affairs but there could be more to come over staying trips. A mark of 46 may prove very fair for this filly over further. This race is far from a strong one, though, also. Dansilver is in good form and goes well here, but a rating of 64 may prevent him winning again. The two horses in form that he beat last time out are both maidens, and Camps Bay - who he beat over c&d recently - is a perennial place horse nowadays. Prince Charlemagne ran in the Wolverhampton race behind Six of Clubs, but it is hard to assess that race in terms of form, and failed to run well last time out (when very easy to back). The market often tells the story with this horse so it is definitely worth watching. I think this could be set up for one of the less exposed horses, and out of those, I very much think Maydream could be the one to beat. The track may not play to her strengths as ideally as Wolverhampton, or Kempton, but in a weak field, it might not be enough to stop her at a rewarding price (currently 6.8/1 on Betfair)

Quackers · April 5, 2011

Flat Racing Wednesday 6th April Hope you don't mind me starting this thread. 2.50 Nottingham Five Star Junior 5/1 A very intriguing race which is pretty tough to figure out. I can't be having Face the Problem against these older horses so early in the season. Liberty Lady is not good enough. Think Iver Bridge Lad is a doubt due to the ground and probably prefers it over 6f. Captain Dunne will struggle to take this off top weight. Don't think Star Rover is good enough to trouble the main principals. Judd Street may need the run although has won fresh before in the past but I think will struggle here. Leaves me with three. Very tough picking between the three of them. I think it is interesting that Jamie Spencer rides Corporal Maddox and not Secret Asset. Spencer has a great strike rate for Jane Chapple-Hyam and would have probably had the choice to ride that horse. Saying that Ryan Moore is better in my eyes anyways. I really like Corporal Maddox but just feel the ground will be too lively for him. The last couple of times he has ridden on good to firm ground he has finished last on both occasions albeit in much better races than this one. Secret Asset is interesting with Ryan Moore on board but was beaten by Five Star Junior recently on the all weather. Both of these horses will appreciate the rattling fast ground but I just feel Five Star junior has the better chance here. The horse likes to be held up and with a fast pace pretty much guaranteed I expect Fallon to utilize the horses good turn of foot.

Bathtime For Rupert · April 5, 2011

Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 6th April Oops! :loon

Quackers · April 5, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April Sorry u must have put it up while I was typing

Bathtime For Rupert · April 5, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 5.30 Lingfield - 5pt win Clearing House @ SP I backed this horse when it won on the 19th March over c&d, where it displayed a fine turn of foot to put the race to bed. Blasted through runners to settle matters and drew clear to win readily. This was on the back of a couple of sound runs, though Lingfield is the place where Clearing House loves it most. It was an impressive 20/1 winner over c&d when coming through plenty of problems to score from the reopposing Christmas Coming by 1 1/4l in early March. Clearing House was getting a stone that day, but the way he won suggested it would take a big swing in the weights for the form to be turned around. Tomorrow there is only 2lbs between the runners, though Adam Beschizza takes off a very handy 5lbs - and I think he is a very capable jockey too. Confirmed his wellbeing over 7f at Kempton next time out, when going down by a nose to long-time maiden Cane Cat. Met trouble in running and had to be switched wide to finish strongly to just fail. Ran a stinker at Wolverhampton next time out but is easily excused from that run. Both the track and the trip were against him with 9f around Wolverhampton proving far from ideal. The return back to the c&d where Clearing House has recorded 2-2 this year will suit to perfection, and can make it 3-3 tomorrow.

Bathtime For Rupert · April 5, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 3.20 Nottingham - 2pt win Perfect Pastime @ SP Tricky little handicap but the one that interests me is the Walter Swinburn trained Perfect Pastime. Whilst not an out-and-out sprinter on pedigree, this gelding by Pastoral Pursuits showed form in every start at 2 without managing to get his head in front. Started his career as a 16/1 shot in a 6f maiden at Windsor back in June, where he only found one too good in the shape of Major Dude of Richard Hannon. That horse flopped in a useful conditions race at Newmarket but was clearly a fancied horse as he went off 8/11 in the Windsor maiden, and 7/2 at Newmarket. Perfect Pastime ran a creditable race on his 2nd start when 5th of 14 at Salisbury, though was 7l behind the first 3, who drew clear. Again, the winner was an 8/11 shot trained by Richard Hannon. However, this horse did go on to better things. Royal Exchange was that horse, who since won a listed race, and was a close 3rd in a Group 2 won by Rerouted. The horse in 2nd at Salisbury, Midnight Feast, was beaten in a Lingfield maiden, but was perhaps not suited by the track, and in the end it proved to be no disgrace. The winner of that race was Cochabamba, who Midnight Feast gave 5lbs that day. The Roger Teal trained Cochabamba proved a revelation as she went on to run 2nd in Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 company - behind Lily Again, Theyskens' Theory, and Cape Dollar respectively. The other horse part of the first 3 at Salisbury was Fight The Chance of Mick Channon's. On that horse's final start of the season at Chester, it beat Little Lion Man in a class 2 conditions race. So the Salisbury form is pretty strong. The respective ORs of the first 3 are now 103, 84 and 91. Perfect Pastime returned to Windsor over 5f next time out, and was just unable to challenge when finishing 4th, beaten 1l. Showed a few signs of inexperience but finished well. That would, however, suggest that 5f may just be too sharp. On its first run in a handicap, things appeared to drop right, but he hung right and was headed close home by Loki's Revenge. Would have won had he kept straight. Again the form looks solid, as that horse is now rated 88 and won two all-weather races at the end of 2010. Ran another excellent race when 3rd at Sandown in a September Nursery, but in the end Jack Smudge and Pick A Little wore him down, relegating him to 3rd. Jack Smudge is another horse who went on to record 2 further successes, and is also rated 88 now. Perfect Pastime's latest run can be ignored. In a 5f race at Newbury, he raced alone just off the stands side rail before joining the main bunch at half way. Did well to stay on to be beaten 5l in 8th under the circumstances. Was drawn 14 and those drawn 11, 12 and 13 finished in the final 3 positions. Nothing wrong with the horse's attitude (though does hang right a bit). Been unlucky meeting progressive horses and one day he'll win a handicap. I think that day will be today. Off a mark of 73 which looks ready to be taken advantage of. Went well on debut which gives hope for his seasonal return, and Walter Swinburn's last four runners have been placed.

StuSimmy · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 15:10 Beverley Going to take one horse each way in this race which looks a competitive sprint. Lenny Bee had a decent campaign as a three year old in 2009 with 2 wins and 6 places from 11 runs and although last season was not the best, I do fancy him to bounce back with a nice campaign this year. Today hemakes his seasonal reappearance in this race for the second year in a row, a race which he landed last year off a mark of 85. He ran out a 1 and a half length winner from a good draw in stall 1 and the draw has been kind to him again this year coming out of stall 2. There is a particularly strong draw bias here over 5 furlongs with four of the first five home last year coming from stalls 1-6 (if you watch the race the stall numbers will be high though because of the change but stall 17 last year is stall number 1 this year). This was Lenny Bee's only victory in 2010 after competing in only 6 more races, all off marks of 90-92. He did manage two places from those 6 runs, both of which came on the all weather. Runs off a mark of 90 today but Dale Swift takes off 5lbs which effectively takes him down to a mark of 85 last year which is the mark he landed this race off of. I did like the chances of Fol Hollow but the draw has not been so kind to him coming out from stall number 11. He does tick a lot of other boxes though and at a nice price could be worth chancing but one I am not going to take due to the strong draw bias. Let's hope I don't regret this decision come tomorrow. 1pt Each Way Lenny Bee @ 7/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

RussP · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April I'm with you Stu:ok 15.10 Beverley The big 5f sprint with 17 going to battle in this Class 3 handicap. We all know about the draw bias towards the now low numbers and I'm not going to back against that. The one that interests me is: Lenny Bee (7/1 Bet365 BOG) - Winner of this race last year and I'm hoping it follows up today under a new handler. Looks to have plenty in its favour to repeat its triumph. Is very well drawn, just 2 off the rail and looks attractively handicapped with a 5lb claimer essentially meaning its running off the same mark off last year. Won this first time up last term so the 120 day absence is no burden at all, in fact it could be called a positive. Won off 85 last term and is off 90 today (net of 85 with jockeys claim). Looking at its form after that win, I think there were excuses. Ran midfield off 92 at Musselburgh nto but was up in grade, off a stiff mark and the easy track did not suit, whilst ran a good race the time after but 6f at stiffish Newcastle wasn't ideal whilst draw ruled out any chance it may have had. Even so, finished 6th of 13 but was 2nd of 6 in its group, again off 92 but with 5lb claimer. Inexplicable poor run then at Newmarket but has since raced on the sand with form figures of 3-2-4, the first 2 both cracking runs in this grade off 90 whilst lto was 4th of 7 but at a track that did not suit, Southwell. Today, is back on grass, off a good mark, very well drawn, has the firmish ground needed, goes well fresh and crucially has C&D form, so I expect a very big run.

zoolander · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April Beverly 2:40 Flying Pickets 12-1 BET365(BOG) 1 Point WIN Finding it very difficult to pick something today so decided to look at the 2 year old maidens, jtw1 is yet to analise this race but i have a feeling this horse will be in the shortlist. There is some real speed in the breeding that won as a two year old and this trainer had a couple of two year old first timer winners last season. Is the oldest foal in the group, not by much but i think it has shown that the older the foal the better the chance because it has had more time to develop. Doesnt have the best of draws but may not make too much of a difference in a 5f maiden sprint here. As always its the first run so a lot can happen that may affect the run but on what information thats available this horse has a realistic chance at a good price, a few of the others are a bit short.

Lars · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 15:10 Beverley The draw used to be such a crucial factor over 5f at this track, and it is still is to a lesser extent. My selection is drawn in stall 7, which is a decent one at that, and I believe that Tabaret is overpriced and should go well after a winter break. Richard Whitaker does well with sprinters, and his 8yo was top-class in his earlier career, winning a listed race as a 4yo. Heâ€™s not quite up to that level anymore, being rated 86 but importantly thatâ€™s only 1lb higher than his last win which came in August 2010, and the same mark when scoring on seasonal reappearance last year over 6f at Doncaster. His profile is a bit â€œhit and missâ€ and he hadnâ€™t won for two years prior to his victory over 6f at Doncaster. Early in the 2010 season saw him run some very creditable races in very tough company, including competitive York and Newmarket handicaps, off bigger marks than he races on today. These include a 3rd at York when 2 lengths behind Tabaret and when 3 lengths behind Hamish McGonogall. He especially ran his best races in this period on fast ground over 5f , which importantly he gets today. After being a bit unlucky at a race at Newmarket, he won over 5f, yet again at Doncaster off 1lb lower than he runs off today. He was wearing a first time visor and had a horrible passage throughout, having to run wide and detached from the field. Winning under such circumstances meant he should have been value for another success, especially as he was only put 3lbs for that success. It was not to be. His next two runs were poor, one perhaps coming too soon while the other likely too far on ground not quick enough. Ending the 2010 season at Catterick, blinkers were fitted and he was ridden from the front, which hasnâ€™t suited him for a while now. He travelled very well and looked like he was going to hang on, but was swamped in the final furlong and finished 3 lengths back. There are a fair few factors that will be in Tabaretâ€™s favour today. Firstly, he gets firmer ground which he definitely enjoys, having won on it twice and recently hardly ever running a bad race on it. Heâ€™s a CD winner here but it was early in his career, so perhaps not a great deal should be looked into that. His later visits have come when outclassed in conditions races and in listed company. Beverley is a fairly stiff 5f track, and Tabaret should get every yard of it, having won over 6f before. His record fresh isnâ€™t bad either, winning on seasonal reappearance in 2010. In 2009, his jockey lost his irons after the start and therefore had zero chance. His 2008 reappearance came in this race, and he didnâ€™t run that well. However, he was drawn in stall 2, which back then pretty much meant he had no chance. His later runs off a break were very decent in hotter company than this, finishing 2nd once and only finishing a maximum of 4 lengths back, including in a Group 3 on the other two starts. He should be up to running a race today. Furthermore, Michael Stainton takes the reins again, and together theyâ€™ve only finished way back in the field once, and usually have gone fairly close. He knows the horse a lot better than his last rider, Amy Ryan, who gave him a too positive a ride from the front. This may also have something to do with the blinkers being removed for today. They lit him up far too much, and heâ€™s a horse who needs to be placed just behind the leaders. Heâ€™s done a fair bit of winning without headgear, so it isnâ€™t a huge factor that he comes with none. Stall 7 isnâ€™t a bad draw now, and he should be able to get a decent position. Although in a race like this, thereâ€™s always a few that are a danger, and also problems with traffic, I feel Tabaret is adequately handicapped on past form, is back to his preferred trip and gets his favourite ground. For a horse that goes well fresh, he should be up to running a big race from his stall. He may run into a couple too good, but Iâ€™ll be quite disappointed if he doesnâ€™t reach the places. At his current odds, I feel a fair EW investment is in order. As long as the ground stays quick, he has a much better chance than his price suggests. Iâ€™ll also be having a small investment on the exchanges, as heâ€™s a bit bigger on them. Tabaret; 2pts EW @ 25/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

RuleBritannia · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 310 Beverley - Solemn 1pt EW @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG Smart sprinter who has been drawn 1 here, which could prove crucial. Runs well fresh and appreciates good to firm ground, with his end of season poor performances all coming on ground that was far from ideal. His 5f good to firm figures read 1231022271, so does appreciiate the distance and ground combination. Current racing mark shouldn't be an issue either as he won @ Newbury last season off the same mark. Course form is also very decent, with figures of 123 from his 3 previous appearances at the track. All positives for me and if stripping fit enough, then he could be entitled to go close at in my eyes a very decent price. Seasonal reappearance last season, when 3rd at this track suggests he will be fine fitness wise. For me Lenny Bee rates the biggest danger with CD win to his name in this race last year, better than decent draw and young claimer taking 5lbs off his back so in essence running off the same mark as when winning last year, but I am happy to stick with my selection.

robertob · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 19.10 Kempton - 1pt Shades Of Grey @ 3/1 Bet365 Good reappearance one month ago here in Kempton when fourth to Sir Boss. She may improve from that run. Still a maiden but I have the feeling that Shades Of Grey should be strong enough to win this weak race. First time blinkers hopefully help.

south_eastern_ram · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 3.10 Beverley - Breathless Kiss - 18/1 SJ & Duchess Dora - 14/1 Bet365 Very competitive race where a case could be made for all 17. My main selection here is Breathless Kiss who has a very good record over 5f and is still very lightly raced over this trip. Her record over 5f is 1133811 but has raced predominantly over 6f/7f, trips she's never won over. She's gone well on good to firm going but mostly over wrong trips. She took his 5f form up a gear when winning a class 4 handicap over 5f off a mark of 80, up 9lbs here but couldnt have won that race much easier. A big field with almost a guranteed strong pace looks ideal for this one and she's not badly drawn in stall 9. Looks stables first string in this race on jockey bookings and this one could turn into quite a smart sprinter. If Duchess Dora was well drawn she would be about half the price here, it's a tough ask from stall 16 but it's not impossible. She ticks a lot of boxes here though, trip/ground ideal, trainer had a great start to the season, won fresh last year and with Paul Hanagan booked who's 4 wins and 6 places from his last 16 rides for John Quinn everything looks primed for a big run. Won off effectively 89 last year in a class 2 handicap and ran well in stronger races off higher marks last year without winning.

chris34 · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 4 flat meetings and really struggled to find a worthwhile bet today. 3.40 Beverley Quite a tight handicap with Leitzu just about current favourite but I am dead against her, she has an inexperienced jockey up and Channon yard clearly not in full swing with several runners running below expectations she also ran disappointing on latest hurdle run having shown promise before which again is a massive concern. Hill Tribe is an interesting runner returning to turf for the first time this season. She has improved rapidly for new yard winning at southwell and wolverhampton in early spring and was a good enough 3rd off revised mark last time out at southwell, prior to that she shaped as if she was a true stayer and this step up in trip looks fine. She also showed limited form on turf last year to suggest she can go on it if improvement is transferred over to turf for new yard now. The most interesting runner for me is The Blue Dog who yet again is a far too bigger price again and looks a bit weak in the market which is usually a concern but beginning to think that perhaps its because she comes from an unfashionable yard. She was bought from a seller at lingfield when landing a gambling on return from over a year off, has since run out 3 game efforts in handicap company and although a form line of 222 starts to ask questions her attitude doesnt look questionable and she is clearly handicapped to win more races yet. She was a neck down on War of the roses who has since gone on to win again off a 2lb higher mark. She is another that has to prove she is effective on turf aswell but looks well worth the risk at the prices. 2pts win Hill Tribe 3/1 bet365 3pts win The Blue Dog 7/2 bet365

StuSimmy · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April 16:40 Beverley Bryan Smart sends just the one runner to Beverley today and although it isn't the longest of journey's from North Yorkshire (around 48 miles) I still find it interesting that he just sends the one runner. This is a tight looking handicap but not a strong looking one, I found it quite hard to make a case for a lot of these runners but out of those I find Unwrapit could be in with a chance at a nice price. This horse made her debut at Newcastle over 6 furlongs in May 2010 where she finished 7/9 in a class 4 maiden race. That was her sole appearance in 2010 and she made her reappearance on the last day of January this year over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. I think she would have finished a lot closer than she did had she not been hampered 2 furlongs out as she did weaken soon after which dented any chances. Better effort at Southwell next time out where she finished 2/6 in a maiden race before going back to Wolverhampton where she finished 3/10. Was a long way off the winner (4 and 3/4 lengths) but that winner won again yesterday at Pontefract off a mark of 75 to boost the form a bit. She only finished a neck off 2nd that day and was a fair bit clear of the 4th placed finisher. She was then sent back to Southwell, this time to make her handicap debut off a mark of 65 where she was also stepped up to a mile for the first time, was a bit one paced inside the final furlong but hard to judge whether she didn't quite get the trip based on that effort in my opinion, especially in a 3 runner race where it turns into more of a tactical affair. Today's extended 7 furlongs here should give us more of an idea and hopefully this may be the type of test she needs. Drawn nicely in stall 2 at a track where there is a strong low draw bias so another positive in his favour. He is also going to be visored for the first time today which will hopefully have a positive effect on her. 0.5pts E/W Unwrapit @ 16/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

Verisimilitude · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April Midnight Martini 3.10 Beverley. 0.5 points each way. Very inconsistent, but does have the ability to go well today. Didn't show much like as expected last season, so maybe they've worked on him and he can return to deliver better this season. The trip and ground's not a concern and although the draw in 15 isn't ideal for him, he can still go well if ready to go. Big price makes him well worth the risk.

Falbrav · April 6, 2011

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 6th April MILES OF SUNSHINE 4.00 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Needs to improve to win this, but goes up in trip, which should suit better, and also goes into a handicap. Gets in off a mark of 53 which looks exploitable and with others looking to be weighted correct, it could all be in place for a big effort. Jim Crowley rides this track better than most and the price is there to tempt.

georgeCOSTANZA · April 6, 2011