Snooker: China Open

[kevshat]

The penultimate ranking event of the season begins in the morning in Beijing. A good tournament for the early risers among us. Looks a great draw so hopefully it'll be a belting week of snooker to lead us into the world championships in 3 weeks time. Get stuck in gentlemen :ok.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: China Open Go on, I'll kick us off. N.Robertson to win China Open, 1pt EW @ 9/1 Skybet (1/2 odds 1-2) I'm going with the current World Champ in the bottom half of the draw. Reportedly, he's been hard at it on the practice table, ahead of his defence of his Crucible crown next month and it would be no surprise to see him go deep in this. Massive price too for the Thunder from Down Under. Hasn't really done an awful lot since winning the World Open but will want some table time now, and the draw has been pretty kind. Opens up with a winnable match against Hawkins, before another you'd expect him to win against, most likely, Ebdon. In the weakest quarter, Mags or Fu in the quarters before the only match I can see him struggling in if he's brought his A game, that against Higgins assuming the Scot gets that far. He ain't going to be a 9/2 shot to win that so I'll gladly take the price on offer and hope he's cueing well ahead of the big one in under a month. A.Carter to win China Open, 1pt EW @ 18/1 Skybet (1/2 odds 1-2) The top half is tougher but the Captain represents the player with the best draw and value price. Bingham, Allen, Cope/Selby stand in his way of a semi and, whilst difficult, it could have been so much worse. I'd expect him to see off Bingham and then it's Mark Allen, a player I rate but one that is much better over the longer format. Selby looks a shadow of the player he was 12-18 months ago, not hitting the breaks he normally does, whilst Cope will choke, simple as. Assuming he gets that far, there are potential dangers aplenty in the semi, including Ronnie, MJW & Ding, but again we'd be sitting on a 9/1 voucher for him to win that. He's had a couple of shockers this season but a win in Shanghai shows how the travel doesn't affect him, whilst a return to form at the Welsh saw him reach the semis. Generally seems better at either end of the season. Last year, he followed up a final appearance in Wales with semi final defeats in both this and the Worlds. 18's looks big and I'll take the Captain to guide us into the winners enclosure.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: China Open Quarter betting out now too so I'll add: A.Carter to win 2nd quarter, 2pts @ 9/2 Skybet Reasoning as posted in #2

[ash69]

Re: Snooker: China Open Hi guys. Bad news is Jimmy White has a problem with visa and can`t get to the tournament. Pretty sad. :unsure Hendry - Stevens Hendry is slipping down slowly. This season was allready not very good for him. UK championship and quick loss against williams. Masters lost with Neil. German masters another lost with Selby, and finally Welsh Open and defeated by Maguire. Doesn`t look impressive. From other hand look at Stevens. He is in really good streak for me. Fantastic performance on Welsh Open. Hamilton, Murphy, Day. Stopped on Higgins. But wasn`t easy. Lost 5:3 after fierce battle. Can see good value here. Hendry - Stevens Bet: Stevens Odd: 1,74 Pinnacle 5/10 :hope

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open We think alike Russ. I'm taking Carter and it's only Robbo's China form which has put me off him and made me look elsewhere. 1pt ew A.Carter to win China Open 18/1 Bet365 (1/2 1,2) I think the Captain is a good price here. He's slowly coming back into a bit of form after semi finals in both the Welsh Open and Championship League as reluctant as I am to use form in that competition. He's had lots of match practice so at the very least should be cueing well and seems to go well in China if his win in Shanghai is anything to go by. The flight path isn't completely smooth here but if he was in the quarter above he'd encounter a lot more turbulence. If he gets past Bingham this quarter could open right up. As Russ says, Carter is often at his best at the business end of the season and I think he could go well with this draw this week. 1pt M.Stevens to win 1st Quarter 7/1 Skybet Matthew Stevens is playing some lovely snooker again and it's great to see. Quarter final at the Welsh Open where he'd spanked Murphy 4-0 on the way there as well as a semi final in the PTC Finals and he's followed that up with a win in the Championship League earning him a good few quid and a Premier League spot. This is a hell of a quarter with Williams, Ding and Ronnie in it but Stevens looks back to his very best and his best was good enough to compete with all of these. 7/1 is a very attractive price to me to make the semi finals and I'm happy to be on the Welshman here. 1pt P.Ebdon to win 4th Quarter 15/2 Skybet 2009 champ Peter Ebdon is another who looks a big price here. Sure he's in Robbo's quarter but Robbo has never made a quarter final in either China tournament. Maguire is the other seed but having pulled out of the PTC Finals because his kid was being born his motivation must be questioned so far away from a new born or if the child is there the sleepless nights aren't going to help. Fu's also in this quarter but I've given up trying to predict his form. We know one thing. Ebbo will be playing well as he prepares for the Worlds like no other tournament and this is an important part of the prep for him. Winner in 09 and quarter finalist last year losing to eventual runner-up Ding is no bad effort and a repeat could get the job done here.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open One for me tomorrow. Annoyed Jimmy hasn't made it but c'est la vie. 3pts M.Stevens (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Hendry 5/4 Boylesports Really fancy an on song Stevens to see off Hendry here. Hendry's long game has gone to pieces and if he lets Stevens in with the form he's shown the last month or so, he'll be punished to the full. Hendry is still capable among the balls but has the odd lapsed concentration miss. Stevens is playing top draw snooker at the minute and I think he can beat Hendry no worse than 5-3 here.

[ash69]

Re: Snooker: China Open

Hendry - Stevens Bet: Stevens Odd: 1,74 Pinnacle 5/10

:eek 5:0 OMFG!

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: China Open A couple for me tomorrow. S.Lee to hit highest break vs M.Williams, 3pts @ 5/4 Bet365 I'm taking the value here. Reigning champ, MJW, is in top form this season and I wouldn't want to be opposing him in a match bet, however his break building is always something to look at taking on. It's not that he can't make a break, he can. However, his only interest is scoring enough to win the frame and move on so that's why we see a lot of 60/70 breaks from him. Lee, meanwhile, likes nothing more than a ton and has been in super form this season, performing very well against the higher ranked players. He comes here off the back of a 10-2 crushing of the Nugget in qualifying for the WC and I expect him to take 2 or 3 frames off the fav here. If he does, I think odds against on him outscoring MJW is too big to ignore. G.Dott (-2.5 frames) to beat Li Hang, 4pts @ 11/8 BlueSq Ok, so Li Hang had an excellent win over Ken Doherty today beating him 5-1. However, Dotty is different gravy nowadays to Ken and the Irishman didn't exactly cover himself in glory today. The young kid from China is an attacking player, goes for his shots and can make decent breaks but he'll feel the pressure here with Dotty a superb break builder himself. If the kid misses, then Graeme Dott will mop up, make no mistake. Dott has been in excellent recent form, making the quarters at the Welsh and semis at the German. In fact, his last 4 ranking defeats have come at the hands of Selby (twice), Ding & Higgins, nothing to be ashamed of. In his last 2 tournaments, he's won 5 matches including beating Neil Robertson, Stephen Maguire & 3 qualifiers. In every single one of those 5 wins, he's covered this handicap; 3 in best of 9's like this match, and the other 2 even more impressive (best of 7's). On paper, an easier opponent so provided he's travelled well, these odds look massive.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open That was a shambles from Stevens. -4 before I've started :sad. 3 for Tuesday. 4pts R.Milkins (-2.5 frames) to beat R.Maimaiti 5/6 Bet365 Although Robert Milkins is never one to stick the mortgage on I do fancy him for a comfortable win here over the amateur wildcard Maimaiti. From everything I can find about this wild card guy the only time he's appeared at this level was when he went down 5-2 to Andrew Higginson in the Shanghai Masters. Since the turn of the year Milkins has gone fairly well. The highlight was obviously making the final of the Shootout in Blackpool but he's put up fair efforts in getting to Germany where he won one of these wildcard matches 5-1 against a more experienced opponent than he's got today. On his day Milkins can score heavily and win frames at the blink of an eye and I think he'll have too much for his opponent here. 4pts D.Junhui vs K.Maflin - Winning Margin Over 3.5 frames 5/4 Paddy Power Massive gulf in class here. Maflin's ranking is so low that he has to come into these events in the first qualifying round and while he's done well to see off the wildcard on Monday he isn't going any further. When Ding gets on a roll he's close to unplayable and we've seen all season long how he pings the lids in these matches. If he goes 3-0 and 4-0 up this one will be over pretty quickly. Not only does he fly out of the traps but he's a mean finisher of matches which all bodes well for this bet. Maflin, playing the biggest match of his career by a country mile here, finished off his wildcard match with 3 half centuries which was a fair effort but there was a lot of dross before than and if he repeats that this will be curtains quickly for Kurt. Ding could win this 5-0 but I'll have the 5-1 on side too. 3pts M.Campbell to beat M.Allen 11/5 Stan James Marcus Campbell has a much better chance in this match than his odds suggest. He's a tournament winner this year having nailed one of the EPTC events and is a generally much improved player this season which says a lot given that we are talking about a player who has beaten Stephen Hendry 9-0 in the UK Championships in the past. Mark Allen has only won one match at a ranking event outside the UK Championships this year and that was only against Rod Lawler who isn't up to much these days. Allen prefers the longer matches I'm sure of it and I think with the benefit of a match on the tables on Monday even if he didn't pull up any trees in it, that Campbell is a big price to see off the Northern Irishman here.

[ash69]

Re: Snooker: China Open So far is one big disaster on this tournament :@ Can`t really see how it`s gonna be tomorrow. For me Best for tommorow could be: Marco Fu. To win against Judd Trump. Trump is quite young player and have some skills but is not just yet. Much better in league. But in tournaments is still quite poor. Marco impress me with great fight against Ding. Marco 1,7 at sportingbet 5/10 Walden - Gould Can see another value in Gould here. Has recently quite good run in EPTC and against Walden at this value looks nice. Gould to win 2,00 William Hill 4/10 Quite surprise with Maflin :( But again much better with great Ding come back...

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open Better day on Tuesday. Hopefully a good one today. 2 for this afternoon. 3pts R.Day to beat R.O'Sullivan 7/4 Bet365 Ryan Day beat O'Sullivan 4-2 in Wales last month and played some real top snooker. He'll need to be hitting top form with a date against MJW at the Crucible so I expect him to play well here. He's been a runner up in the Shanghai Masters in the past so we know he can go well in China. Ronnie isn't a good traveller and will have had very little match practice recently. He's barely won a match in a ranking event this season, the World Open aside and we've seen in the past that although he goes to China he's seemingly never bothered about the result. This is a big match for Day to push for top 16 places after the world's so at 7/4 I'll take my chance. 5pts M.Gould to beat R.Walden Evs William Hill Ricky Walden's having a shocking season. Aside from the best of 5 lottery at the World Open, he's only won two matches all season. One in Germany and one against the even more out of form Liang at the PTC Finals. Gould was runner up in those finals coming past Judd Trump and Mark Selby along the way. I like Gould a lot as a player. He attacks and doesn't fear anyone. It appears he's finally got the Crucible last year out of his head and although Walden has previous in China having won the Shanghai Masters in the past, I still think Gould wins this one.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open Annoying day on Wednesday with Gould being 4-2 up and losing after Day won easily. One for me on Thursday. 4pts S.Lee to beat R.Day 9/10 Boylesports Stephen Lee is playing some really good snooker at the minute. Everyone mentioned how Williams hit 4 tons and lost to him in the previous round but not many are mentioning how well Lee scored and that clearance in the decider was as good a clearance as you could ever see. He's been playing well all season and not necessarily getting the results so it was good to see him edge over the line. Day had a good scalp in round one but he didn't beat a lot. Ronnie was so rusty it's untrue. I always think Day pushes the boat out a bit too much and with Lee having the potential of tieing him up and then clearing up when he's in I think he'll have too much in the locker, or his stomach :lol for the Welshman here.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open No danger with Lee there so up to +5.79 now with Ebdon effectively 15/2 to beat Trump tomorrow.

[Fader]

Re: Snooker: China Open Kev, i'm following you on the Carter bet. I see he won 5-3 today but it looked like it was more a case of Campbell making mistakes when leading. Whats your opinion of how Carters playing and his chances against Selby and potentially Ding?

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open Hard to say in a way mate because he hasn't been on a TV table yet. Over the course of the season Selby hasn't played well though so I would give him every chance there. Ding's a different story because when he's on song there's probably on Williams and Higgins who can keep with him but Maflin should've knocked him out and Hendry led 2-0 before his safety game fell apart. I'm not too unhappy with where Carter sits at the minute :ok.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open 3 for me on quarter final day. 5pts S.Murphy vs J.Higgins - Over 7.5 frames 5/6 Paddy Power I'm quite looking forward to this match between the last two tournament winners on the circuit. That in itself says both players are playing well enough overall although both have had a struggle or two this week. These two are just so well matched that I have to take the overs here. Both are good matchplayers and both are heavy scorers in the balls. As I've said both have won tournaments recently so both will be confident and I can't see either running away with this to the extent that it's won 5-2 or easier. 5-3 either way gets the job done here and that's the minimum I expect the score to be at the end of this one. 4pts A.Carter to beat M.Selby 11/8 Boylesports Unfortunately I've not got Russ' 9/2 on the Captain but I'm happy to get this price on Carter. Carter flew past Selby at the Shanghai Masters at the start of the season beating the Leicester man 6-2 in the semi finals of that tournament and all indications are that the Essex man is happy with his form. For Selby it's been a bit of a struggle so far. We've seen him go through the gears as the latter stages of events come along but Ali likes China. Semi finalist in this last year and a winner of the Shanghai Masters highlights that. I think Carter is a big price here at 11/8 when I'd have him around evens if not a bit shorter so I'll take Captain Carter to make the Jester look like the fool on April Fools day. 3pts S.Lee to beat D.Junhui 6/4 Boylesports I like this price. It's actually Ding's birthday on Friday and if there's one guest you wouldn't want to invite to your birthday party it's Stephen Lee because one look at the guy will tell you he's well practiced in clearing tables at birthday parties. While Ding is entertaining his guests here Lee could well be helping himself to a large slice of the bigger cake which is a semi final spot and there isn't a lot Stephen Lee would appear to like more than a big piece of cake. Ding's been solid this week but he's always got so much pressure on him and his game is showing that. I've been really impressed with Lee this week and if he can bring his safety game to the party here then I think he has every chance. Ding pushes the boat out a bit too much for my liking in China in an attempt to please his fellow countrymen and if he pushes the boat out and misses Lee will gobble up any chances that come his way. Stephen Lee is a very dangerous opponent for Ding here and if Ding's safety isn't up to scratch he could be in trouble. I'll have a small bet on the big man in this one.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open That was a shambles of a day. 15pts down the swanny. Back to -9.21 now. Going with one in the first semi. 5pts S.Murphy (-1.5 frames) to beat J.Trump 5/6 Bet365 Shaun Murphy is playing lovely snooker at the minute and I expect him to win this semi quite nicely. He was so good against Higgins in the quarter final and just oozed confidence. This is as far as Trump has been in a major ranking event and I don't think he'll progress here. Credit to him he played well against Ebdon but Murphy is in such good form and it's showing in his manner around the table. His tactical game has improved beyond all recognition but he's scoring well too and I think he'll have too much for the youngster from Bristol here and see him winning this no worse than 6-4.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open And the second semi.... 4pts M.Selby to beat D.Junhui Evs Boylesports 4pts Over 9.5 frames Evs Ladbrokes 3pts Over 1.5 centuries Evs Sportingbet I like Selby here. I still think Ding is giving too many chances away and when a guy has just hit 3 tons and a 70 break in his last match you can't be doing that. Stephen Lee had so many chances against Ding as Hendry did prior to that but neither took them. Selby will. Selby also has the all round game to frustrate Ding here too. He can tie him in knots and as we all know he's as gritty as they come. We're due a close match and I think this will be close as both are playing well. 6-4 either way or 6-5 gets the overs in and I think that will be the score here between these two champions. They notched 4 tons in the 10 frames they won between them in the quarters and with the main table playing like a dream this week I think over the course of 10 or 11 frames we could well see these two notch a couple of tons for us. I always take Selby in tight matches and given that I see this being tight I'll take him again here.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: China Open -2 for the semis so back to -11.21 overall this week but I think there's still a bit of mileage left in this final. 5pts M.Selby to beat J.Trump 6/5 Stan James I don't think Mark Selby is out of this final. We know he's the king of the comebacks and I expect to come back very strong this evening. Judd's played some fantastic snooker in the opening session of this final knocking in a couple of 104's but Selby's had a couple of 90's as well so he's scoring well. Selby knows what it's like to be in this position whereas Judd doesn't really and we saw Judd just begin to cue slightly across a couple of long balls as he was developing his lead in the opening session. You have to believe that the closer the winning line gets, the more chance there is of him cueing across those long balls, particularly if Selby is close to him like I think he will be. There's so much left of this final. Judd's only half way to the victory line yet and I expect Selby to come out all guns blazing and turn this around. We know he's got the game because he wiped Ali Carter out with a barrage of breaks on Friday and at 6/5 I'll take the Jester to turn this around in full.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: China Open

-2 for the semis so back to -11.21 overall this week but I think there's still a bit of mileage left in this final. 5pts M.Selby to beat J.Trump 6/5 Stan James I don't think Mark Selby is out of this final. We know he's the king of the comebacks and I expect to come back very strong this evening. Judd's played some fantastic snooker in the opening session of this final knocking in a couple of 104's but Selby's had a couple of 90's as well so he's scoring well. Selby knows what it's like to be in this position whereas Judd doesn't really and we saw Judd just begin to cue slightly across a couple of long balls as he was developing his lead in the opening session. You have to believe that the closer the winning line gets, the more chance there is of him cueing across those long balls, particularly if Selby is close to him like I think he will be. There's so much left of this final. Judd's only half way to the victory line yet and I expect Selby to come out all guns blazing and turn this around. We know he's got the game because he wiped Ali Carter out with a barrage of breaks on Friday and at 6/5 I'll take the Jester to turn this around in full.

At 8-8 I thought Selby had it for the taking but Cest la vie!