BFR Racing Thread -77.14pts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Awful day. Spirit Of Sharjah didn't seem to enjoy Wolverhampton and the run of the race didn't suit. Ronaldo Des Mottes unseated reasonably early on. Drill Sergeant not good enough. Captain Kirkton went wrong and was pulled up. Final Drive and Little Garcon couldn't pick up. Nothing was coming off the pace at Wolves today. Lots of kickback and generally looked quite testing. Horses were only plodding home. All of my Wolves selections were hold-up horses. Bad luck really with an unseating and unfortunately one going wrong. -14pts for the day. New bank: 82.99pts (-17.01pts)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Warwick: 4.05 - 3pts win Sweden @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes) 5.10 - 1.5pts e/w Jeanry @ 9/1 (Hills) Market Rasen: 3.50 - 1pt win Ginger's Lad @ 5/1 (Bet365) 4.25 - 1pt e/w The Shy Man @ 8/1 (Bet365)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts -9pts New bank: 73.29pts (-26.01pts) Serves me right for picking on a Sunday. Awful again. Roll on Cheltenham.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Cheltenham: 2.05 - 5pts win Ghizao @ 4/1 (Hills) - Perhaps wants it a bit softer but you won't get a better jumper in the race, and its form ahead of Captain Chris - including 1 with a 10lb penalty is solid. Goes very well at Cheltenham and can bowl along boldly and get first run on Medermit. I think it's between these two. Couldn't have Finian's Rainbow - however big its engine - in the Arkle with the way it's jumped so far over fences. 2.40 - 1pt e/w Fair Along @ 22/1 (Skybet) - Bit of an e/w punt but could be well handicapped and unexposed over staying distances in chases. Ran a huge race in the Aon last time behind Noland and What A Friend, staying on powerfully again at the finish after a couple of jumping blemishes. Not ideal to have a horse who isn't solid over its fences but got course form and can go well at a price. 4.00 - 3pts win Garde Champetre @ 5/1 (Hills) - Still life in this horse and is weighted to beat L'ami and A New Story imo. Maljimar will be a threat but this horse has been there, done that, consistent in cross country races with excuses when it has been beaten. Still retains the quality and could turn out to be a good price. 5.15 - 1pt e/w Swing Bill @ 16/1 (Hills) - Ancient in comparison to his rivals, but a real bold jumper and galloper who is suited by the course (2nd on both starts at Cheltenham). Should race prominently jumping well and will gallop up the hill. Rallied strongly last time in a good race behind Fine Parchment - would have got up in a few more strides. Made mistakes/jumped slowly up straight but really finished with a rattle and looks to have a decent each way chance in a wide open race. Recent handicap form is strong, goes well at Cheltenham, stays further, and has few concerns.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Well Ghizao made a horrible error which cost him all momentum and any hope. Fair Along couldn't go the gallop throughout virtually but plugged on well to take 4th. Garde Champetre ran another super race under top weight but just couldn't get to Sizing Australia. Swing Bill ran okay but no more against his juniors. 12pts staked 6.5pts returned New bank: 68.49pts (-31.51pts). More confident today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts 4.00 Cheltenham - Ballyhaunis @ 14/1 (Bet365) Going against Ruby Walsh's choice of ride here, though I don't believe there's much between Call The Police (6/1) and Ballyhaunis (14/1) here, and 5lbs difference in ratings. Ballyhaunis was an expensive purchase for the flat, but its future appears over timber now. It won by 4 lengths on its hurdling debut at Listowel in September (2nd and 3rd won since), before staying on best to beat Wilde Wit Pleasure at Thurles in November (pair pulling clear of 3rd). Wilde Wit Pleasure also had a formline with Call The Police when they both were beaten by Final Approach in a competitive large runner handicap at Leopardstown. Wilde Wit Pleasure gave Call The Police 4lbs and was beaten 2 lengths. Ballyhaunis beat Wilde Wit Pleasure by 1 1/4l off level weights. Both Mullins horses seem better over further, also. Ballyhaunis warmed up for Cheltenham with a run at Leopardstown over the distance it contests today. It was a Grade 2 and was beaten 2l by Hidden Cyclone. That horse has hacked up twice since and has now scored 6 out of 7 runs under rules. The only defeat coming in a Grade 1 won by First Lieutenant with Zaidpour in 2nd. (Hidden Cyclone beaten 3/4 length). First Lieutenant is a good horse, shown by its price of 13/2 for the Neptune Investment. I think Ballyhaunis' form stands up very well with its run in front of Wilde Wit Pleasure, and behind clearly a very talented horse in Hidden Cyclone on ground that may not have been totally ideal and in a small runner field. I think a mark of 135 is fair, and even though Ruby overlooks it, I am not. 1.30 Cheltenham - Beshabar @ 8/1 (Hills) This Tim Vaughan trained horse was a very useful hurdler (rated 149) and appears to be on an upward curve over fences too. His chasing debut in December 2009 on heavy ground can be ignored given the conditions, and the horse had been off the track for nearly two years. Bounced back to form readily with two good hurdle wins before Vaughan sent him over the bigger obstacles. In November it ran in a competitive novice chase which Wayward Prince won. Beshabar put in a round of novicey jumping and did well to be staying on well, and appearing as a danger before being brought down two out. The horse was given reminders on several occasions but kept finding for pressure, seeing out the trip very well. It followed this up with a much slicker round of jumping at Doncaster where it beat off subsequent winner Cool Mission on the run-in, staying on powerfully. The improvement in jumping was vast, and if building on it again, could be on a good mark. Obviously like most, the trip is a question mark, but the way this horse has been staying on over 3 miles (including at Cheltenham), when making jumping errors, should give this a hope of staying the 4 today. Vaughan has given this horse his best chance of a winner (though not sure what else he has) and I think it could well give him one. His sire, Flemensfirth, produces classy stayers including Time For Rupert, Tidal Bay and Imperial Commander, and also has a good record at Cheltenham. Has looked a little bit of a tricky ride at times so having Tom David on board rather than a more experienced Richard Johnson or Christian Williams may be a concern, but should be able to get some effort out of the horse.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts 2.40 Cheltenham - 5pts win Time For Rupert @ 11/4 (Paddy Power) If this horse had run this calendar year it would be a 10pt bet, but I still think he'll take some beating. Doesn't appear to have any chinks in his armour. Excellent over hurdles for a horse always going to be a staying chaser. By Flemensfirth who has great success with its stayers, and especially at Cheltenham. He has a likable attitude who will battle with all his heart, jumps excellently, stays very strongly, and loves it around Cheltenham (never out of top 2). Its form in two novice chasers looks the best on offer with horses well beaten behind Time For Rupert running very well since. Hell's Bay was a narrow second to Medermit, Quinz won the Racing Post Chase, and 4 horses behind TFR on his chasing debut ran excellently yesterday... Reve De Sivola ran 3rd in the Arkle whilst Divers, Quantitativeeasing and Vino Griego filled 3 of the first 4 places in the last race of the day. If he's all ready to go (Kennedy reportedly very happy) then he will take some stopping up the hill. Stats go against him but looks to be the ultimate package, and has everything you want in an RSA hopeful (apart from a recent run!).

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts The above two are 2pts e/w, by the way. Must have forgotten to put that on when copying across.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts 1.30 - 2.5pts win Mr Gardner @ 13/2 (PaddyPower) I think this horse may go off shorter but also think he had an excellent chance of playing a part in the finish. Initially a cheap purchase, Mr Gardner's sale price rose dramatically from £6k to £85k after winning a PTP by a distance. Nicky Henderson received the horse and sent him over hurdles - disappointing first time out (after a break) and then was outclassed in a Grade 2. Did however notch up an easy win on its 3rd start over hurdles back in March 2009 (winning by 32 lengths and was the stable's second string in the race!). The horse it beat into 2nd was no other than Paul Nicholls' trained Fistral Beach. Missed a season with a tendon injury before he was sent chasing earlier in 2011. This horse looks every bit a chaser and is clearly going to make a very good one. On its chasing debut (and first run for 2 years) at Huntingdon, the horse put in an exceptional round of jumping. It coasted clear and won by 32l. We wouldn't learn a huge amount until he faced stiffer opposition, which he did at Sandown on his 2nd start. After making a terrible mess of the first, Mr Gardner returned to his fluent self, jumping very well and was level with Medermit at the second last. He jumped it well but stumbled on landing, costing him momentum and with that, the race was gone. Captain Chris went into 2nd, and after a mistake at the last, Mr Gardner battled on well to retain a 7l third. He would have been much closer but for the stumble, and may still come on for the run. Likely to bowl along prominently, this horse jumps for fun on the whole (missed out a total of 2 fences in 2 chase starts) and looks a relentless galloper. Should run his race and be pitching at the finish. Barry Geraghty is back on board after Felix De Giles rode last time. Geraghty had ridden Noble Prince on that horse's most recent 2 starts but is on the Henderson trained runner today. 2.05 - 1.5pts e/w Barwell Bridge @ 25/1 (PaddyPower) The Pertemps Final looks wide open here and is worth siding with one at a big price, and an overpriced one at that, in my opinion. Barwell Bridge is a very consistent horse who has been in the top 3 on 26 occasions out of 46 career starts in all codes (winning 6). Often does find 1 or 2 too good, but is very interesting here. Rated 85 on the flat, Barwell Bridge has proved to be excellent over timber and was aimed at the Triumph Hurdle by Warren Greatrex before he had jumped a flight. He ran away with his debut hurdle at Ffos Las before two solid placed efforts prior to the Cheltenham race. I'm not sure the Triumph was particularly good last year (though Carlito Brigante did the form no harm yesterday), but Barwell Bridge kept on to be a remote 5th of 17, which signalled a good start to its NH career. It disappointed a bit on its seasonal reappearance - finishing behind Escort'men at Chepstow. However, with the tongue-tie fitted, the horse bounced right back to form with a solid 2nd to Riptide over 2m4f, before running a huge race at Cheltenham over 3 miles in December. Daryl Jacob cantered round on the horse, looking an almighty threat up the straight, and ended up finishing a 1 1/4 length 2nd to Lush Life, who reopposes. The horse was carried left after the final flight before hanging violently right under the whip, and then ran all the way to the line having been straightened up. Would have gone very close, and receiving an extra 2lbs from Lush Life today, must have a solid chance. That horse is a shorter price. Ran no race at Kempton, which perhaps contributes to his big price here, but was reported to have returned sick, and that run is perhaps best ignored. If you do take that run out of the equation, this horse is not a 25/1 shot, and can hopefully come into the race and threaten at the death. Has a decent record in big fields of: 1/16 2/16 5/17 (Triumph) 2/16 12/19 (LTO when sick) 4.40 - 1pt e/w Billie Magern @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Perhaps has a little bit on his plate to win here, but the return to good ground will be a huge help to this horse. 2323251111FF11113 is its form on ground good or better (and was leading 3 out on one of its falls). Showed some promise in a couple of runs at Cheltenham in October/November - 3rd to Chicago Grey (beaten 6l) with Picture This in 2nd, and Balthazar King/Hells Bay in behind. Ran no race on New Year's Day but with ground on the soft side of good, and over perhaps an insufficient trip, can excuse it slightly. As well as the fact it was a Grade 2 race, hotly contested with good novices including Hell's Bay, Medermit, Reve De Sivola, and Master Of The Hall. He bounced back to form slightly with a 6l defeat to Master Of The Hall at Ascot. Was flattered by the proximity but on soft ground, still showed some promise to beat The Minack and Teddy's Reflection. If building on that, enjoying himself out in front, he can run well on the ground and give young Willie Twiston-Davies a good ride.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Proper racing now. 5.45 - 2.5pts win Overwhelm @ 3/1 (Bet365) Looked a promising horse for Andrew Reid at 2, including good form on polytrack. Interesting change of hands to Richard Fahey's yard, and made a promising return to action over c&d with a 3rd of 5th behind Restless Bay (beaten 2l). Bound to come on for that and looks a bit threat in this field. 8.15 - 1pt e/w Absa Lutte @ 11/1 (Bet365) This horse looks well treated and has been running better than its bare form lately. Formerly a prolific polytrack winner - including a win off 75. Is down to 68 today and shapes as if coming back to the boil. Was beaten 3 3/4 lengths last time by Kyladdie having not had a clear run, and that race looks better than this. 31533 are its form figures over c&d and the step up to 6f looks ideal based on its latest couple of runs. Michael Mullineaux's horses have been running okay of late, and with a bit of luck, can have another good runner here at a nice price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts e/w Astracad @ 33/1 (VC) One I fancy at a price if the rain stays away is Astracad. I think NTD could have a fantastic Friday and despite this one not being his most likely winner, could run a blinder. On good ground or better his form reads 21131. Has course form with a good 4l victory over Organisateur in October with Lucaindubai in 3rd. These 3 were clear. Organisateur is 30lbs higher in the weights now (rated 158), and Lucaindubai ran an excellent 4th in the Imperial Cup at the weekend. Has been running in better races since, in the Greatwood Hurdle (8th of 17). Then ran a 13l 6th behind Menorah, Cue Card and Silvinano Conti, before meeting Bobs Worth last time out. Was beaten 22l in 6th (giving weight) but on all three of those runs, the ground was on the soft side. Back in a handicap here, can outrun his price if the ground stays in his favour. Big question mark though with rain forecasted.

[Zenyatta]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Thought you might have kept this thread going :( it started so well.

[Superstarchef]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts Hi Magic, Been reading your thread from the start. It's nice to see you putting points next to your selections as it gives me a feel to how well you fancy the horse, unlike in the past. I have putted on a few of your more favorable ones and got some nice odds in play. Keep it up mate :clap

[Zenyatta]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts

Hi Magic, Been reading your thread from the start. It's nice to see you putting points next to your selections as it gives me a feel to how well you fancy the horse, unlike in the past. I have putted on a few of your more favorable ones and got some nice odds in play. Keep it up mate :clap

He was keeping a record when he was winning, hes now - 50 pts and has disappeared :unsure

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts It's called having a break after Cheltenham. It's also called having much more important priorities.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -3.01pts New bank: 43.49pts (-56.51pts). Shite. But that's what Cheltenham can do to you (and narrow defeats at Wolves!). Had TFR not bled, we could have seen it win and have a much different picture. Mr Gardner went wrong, too :\ With the flat upon us it gives a new angle and hopefully things will pick up as quickly as they dropped off... (Oh and typically soon after my last bets in this thread, I had a cracking Saturday including the 25/1 winner of the Midlands national...just my luck!)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts Lingfield: 2.00 - 3pt win Far View @ 9/4 (Bet365) 2.30 - 0.5pt win Bookiesindexdotnet @ 20/1 (PaddyPower) 3.00 - 2pts win Chantilly Jewel @ 9/2 (Hills) 3.30 - 2pts win Frequency @ 2/1 (Ladbrokes) 4.00 - 1pt e/w Teen Ager @ 8/1 (Bet365) Hereford: 2.10 - 10pt win Dubai Crest @ 7/4 (Bet365) 3.10 - 3pt win Balthazar King @ 6/5 (VC) 3.40 - 1pt e/w Thingathong @ 10/1 (Hills) 4.40 - 3pt win Bertenbar @ 15/8 (Bet365) Pretty confident today...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts Typical start.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts 4.20 Musselburgh - 5pt win Guest Book @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes) Very consistent around 7f/a mile, only poor run was over 10f which may have stretched its stamina at 3. Either way, last time out it pulled clear with a very smart type Pintura (who went on to run 2nd behind Gunner Lindley in a big handicap field of 20). Still lightly raced, and the Johnston team are in decent nick (4 wins from last 11 runners).

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts Newcastle: 3.30 - 1pt e/w Catholic Hill @ 9/1 (VC) 4.30 - 3pt win Finlay @ 11/4 (Bet365) 5.00 - 2.5pts e/w Easter Vic @ 6/1 (VC) Musselburgh: 3.20 - 1.5pts win Oldjoesaid @ 6/1 (VC) Stratford: 2.10 - 1pt e/w Argaum @ 22/1 (Bet365) 2.40 - 2pts win Kack Handed @ 9/2 (Bet365) 3.40 - 3pts win Tatispout @ 3/1 (Bet365)

[Zenyatta]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts No updates and punts on other sites :( If you stick to it on here your punting will improve.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts

No updates and punts on other sites :( If you stick to it on here your punting will improve.

Keep yer nose out will ya? I only came back on here a few days ago. I'll post worthwhile selections in here. Like I said, I've other more important stuff to deal with. My recent bets haven't been strong enough to post in here - I imagine Aintree will see a resurrection. I don't want to sell the thread short with poorly thought out selections, and lots of them. Even if I'm having more bets, my bets posted in here will often only be the best ones. I haven't been mega confident on things recently as the flat season has started. You'd notice I had a break after Cheltenham from here, and haven't been regularly on here since. Things may change, but I don't see what your agenda is to stick your oar in tbh. I haven't said a word in your thread for ages... Like it or not, but recently this thread, and even this forum tbh, hasn't crossed my mind.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts Kempton: 2.50 - 2pt win Morning Chief @ 5/1 (Bet365) 4.20 - 2pt win Sunset Kitty @ 7/2 (Bet365) Exeter: 2.30 - 10pt win Vincitore @ 13/8 (PaddyPower) 3.00 - 2.5pts e/w Sum Laff @ 13/2 (Bet365) 3.30 - 3pt win Vamizi @ 4/1 (Bet365)

[Zenyatta]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts

Keep yer nose out will ya? I only came back on here a few days ago. I'll post worthwhile selections in here. Like I said, I've other more important stuff to deal with. My recent bets haven't been strong enough to post in here - I imagine Aintree will see a resurrection. I don't want to sell the thread short with poorly thought out selections, and lots of them. Even if I'm having more bets, my bets posted in here will often only be the best ones. I haven't been mega confident on things recently as the flat season has started. You'd notice I had a break after Cheltenham from here, and haven't been regularly on here since. Things may change, but I don't see what your agenda is to stick your oar in tbh. I haven't said a word in your thread for ages... Like it or not, but recently this thread, and even this forum tbh, hasn't crossed my mind.

There is no agenda, I just think its courtesy to update members after your selections run, you do not update your thread, this you promised in your opening post, you updated regularly when you were winning.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts I did update it recently ffs! Like I said, why the **** would this be my first port of call when I have other things to deal with? Been 2 days of bets since I updated it and I've only just come back on here. I suggest you **** off and keep your nose out. Why they let you back I've no idea.

[Zenyatta]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts

I did update it recently ffs! Like I said, why the **** would this be my first port of call when I have other things to deal with? Been 2 days of bets since I updated it and I've only just come back on here. I suggest you **** off and keep your nose out. Why they let you back I've no idea.

There was no need for the abuse and foul language, I only asked why you had not updated. I will leave you to it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts

There was no need for the abuse and foul language, I only asked why you had not updated. I will leave you to it.

And I answered about 3 times. Just get the message!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts New bank: 26.36pts (-73.64pts) Terrible luck last few bets. 10pt bets on horses who need good ground. Good ground being called, jockeys said it was soft, and the going changed after the race... Fallers, and a heap load of 2nds. More selective from now on and a lot more thorough thoughts.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts 4.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Maydream @ SP This is a weak 2 mile handicap, and it might be worth siding with a potentially unexposed horse over this trip. Maydream showed little in maidens, but has benefited from the switch to handicap, to record some respectable performances. Despite finishing 8th on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton over 12f in December, she was only beaten 4 1/2l behind Alternative Choice in a weak, but competitive, handicap. A move which I found a bit strange was to drop the filly back down in trip at Kempton where she raced over 10f next time out. This was again a decent effort, and was better than the form shows. Another very poor race, but Maydream was snatched up just before the 3f marker, and considering this horse appears to be a galloper - and doesn't do anything very quickly, this gave her no chance over the 10f trip. She picked up again to finish 6th, beaten just over 6l. Trainer Jimmy Fox decided to send her over a much greater distance at Wolverhampton next time. The 2 mile trip looked to be ideal on what she had shown previously, and her sister raced in bumpers, as well as her dam being placed over 12f. She had staying influence in her pedigree also. Unfortunately the Wolverhampton race was the rather farcical affair won by Six Of Clubs. All the jockeys pulled up thinking the race was to be voided as a stricken horse remained on the home turn, but this was not the case. Some jockeys eventually proceeded to continue and finish the race. However, Sam Hitchcott on Maydream was not one of these. Frustrating as we didn't get to see whether she definitely stayed the 2 mile trip. Her most recent run was the closest she has come to winning a race, finishing well to finish a 3/4l third to Little Richard over 12f at Kempton. Again, didn't do anything too quickly, but ran on all the way to the line to be closing at the finish. These races are very moderate affairs but there could be more to come over staying trips. A mark of 46 may prove very fair for this filly over further. This race is far from a strong one, though, also. Dansilver is in good form and goes well here, but a rating of 64 may prevent him winning again. The two horses in form that he beat last time out are both maidens, and Camps Bay - who he beat over c&d recently - is a perennial place horse nowadays. Prince Charlemagne ran in the Wolverhampton race behind Six of Clubs, but it is hard to assess that race in terms of form, and failed to run well last time out (when very easy to back). The market often tells the story with this horse so it is definitely worth watching. I think this could be set up for one of the less exposed horses, and out of those, I very much think Maydream could be the one to beat. The track may not play to her strengths as ideally as Wolverhampton, or Kempton, but in a weak field, it might not be enough to stop her at a rewarding price (currently 6.8/1 on Betfair)

[Monterosso]

Re: BFR Racing Thread -56.51pts Best of luck mate. :hope Cracking write-up. :clap