Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 So gonna see how well I can do. Like to think I know my racing - knowledge of the sport probably exceed's tipping ability but can call things from time to time! Will start with a bank of 100pts. Will give my reasoning for selections on the vast majority, if not on all occasions. Never done this before so don't hate me if I don't get the hang of staking 100%, but they'll give you an idea of respective confidence should you want to follow - but would obviously recommend making your own final judgement. Will update regularly and selections will typically be posted an hour or so before the first race of the day (regardless of which races my selections are in.) If I've missed anything or you want to ask something then feel free. First selections likely to be tomorrow - but I won't pick out horses for the sake of it. Therefore the amount of selections on particular days may vary. Cheers, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Good luck matey :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread :cheers :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Sorry for lack of reasoning - usually will have it but a bit later than planner. NAP will have reasoning in BBOTD thread in the ATR forum. Wolverhampton: 3.30 - 3pt win Captain Ramius @ 6/4 (VC) 4.00 - 2pt win Black Coffee @ 11/4 (Betfred) 4.30 - 1.5pts e/w Gordy Bee @ 12/1 (Sportingbet) Plumpton: 3.20 - 1.5pts e/w Rushwee @ 15/2 (Sportingbet) 4.20 - 2pt win Kaituna @ 9/2 (VC) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Will be napping Gordy Bee in the BBOTD thread. Partially 'cos I need a good winner, and also because there's not much between my selections in terms of confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Sorry for lack of reasoning - usually will have it but a bit later than planner. NAP will have reasoning in BBOTD thread in the ATR forum. Wolverhampton: 3.30 - 3pt win Captain Ramius @ 6/4 (VC) 4.00 - 2pt win Black Coffee @ 11/4 (Betfred) 4.30 - 1.5pts e/w Gordy Bee @ 12/1 (Sportingbet) Plumpton: 3.20 - 1.5pts e/w Rushwee @ 15/2 (Sportingbet) 4.20 - 2pt win Kaituna @ 9/2 (VC) :hope 13pts staked. 13.5pts returned. Captain Ramius was disappointing trudging in 4th of 4. Black Coffee got there late under a good ride. Gordy Bee was caught outpaced and a little short of room rounding the bend which cost him his winning chance - stayed on well to reclaim 3rd close home. Rushwee flopped again after I gave him another chance following its disappointing run LTO, and Kaituna came home a game third trying to give nearly 2 stone to the winner. all in all a steady start, +0.5pts for the day - Better to come. Bank: 100.5pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread 13pts staked. 13.5pts returned. Captain Ramius was disappointing trudging in 4th of 4. Black Coffee got there late under a good ride. Gordy Bee was caught outpaced and a little short of room rounding the bend which cost him his winning chance - stayed on well to reclaim 3rd close home. Rushwee flopped again after I gave him another chance following its disappointing run LTO, and Kaituna came home a game third trying to give nearly 2 stone to the winner. all in all a steady start, +0.5pts for the day - Better to come. Bank: 100.5pts. Good start :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Lingfield: 2.10 - 1.5pts e/w Anna Fontenail @ 7/1 (VC) A slight concern is the drift about this horse but worth taking an e/w punt at on the book. Has run okay over a mile at Lingfield - staying on in all three starts. The step up in trip should suit on evidence so far, and its dam won over 12f. Not the best of races but this looks relatively unexposed over a new trip and can run well. 2.40 - 3pts win A Little Bit Dusty @ 6/4 (Hills) Weak 5 runner seller with A Little Bit Dusty having an excellent chance at the weights. Blinkers have livened this horse up and the trip should not be a problem. Kieron Fox is back on board today after Payne riding the horse 3rd of 4 behind Malice or Mischief over a mile. That form even looks good enough to take this. 3.10 - 2pt win Epsom Salts @ 9/2 (Boyles) Competitive 2 mile handicap but Epsom Salts is very interesting here. 11222 is its record at Lingfield over middle/staying trips (12f+). Ran a promising race last time, beaten 4l behind Buona Sarah over 10f which is much too sharp. Has previously won off 74 and effectively runs off 65 today with Gemma Marshall's claim. Good chance at a nice price. 5.25 - 2pt win Crazy Parachute @ 5/1 (VC) I made a note to watch the market on this one, and has come in to 5/1 from an early morning price of 15/2. Showed promise on its first two starts before a couple of poor runs on the all-weather. Ran promisingly on its return in an apprentice race under an inexperienced rider and with George Baker now on board, can go well on a mark of 55. Total: 10pts Some NH selections may be posted if anything stands out. Will try to get these up earlier in future but my studying takes a while! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Are you actually backing these to the stakes advised or just playing with points ? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread I don't use a points system for my betting. They are pretty much relative to the size of my bets, though. Been a tad unfortunate today. Anna Fontenail looked tricky and perhaps should have gone through and won the race - was 3rd @ 9/1. A Little Bit Dusty won narrowly. Epsom Salts would surely have won with a run. Marshall had to sit up throughout straight before running on well when finally switched too late. One to run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread I don't use a points system for my betting. They are pretty much relative to the size of my bets, though. Been a tad unfortunate today. Anna Fontenail looked tricky and perhaps should have gone through and won the race - was 3rd @ 9/1. A Little Bit Dusty won narrowly. Epsom Salts would surely have won with a run. Marshall had to sit up throughout straight before running on well when finally switched too late. One to run... You're winning send me some cash :drums This sites a million times better than you know where, Im not used to tipping without hostility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread You're winning send me some cash :drums This sites a million times better than you know where, Im not used to tipping without hostility. :lol Long may it last! And the winning :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread :lol Long may it last! And the winning :ok Cheers same to you :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread Unfortunately the market move for Crazy Parachute has dried up and is out to 9/1 :\ Not as confident now but hoping it will still go well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread What can you do? A horse only once raced keenly previously according to form comments, pulls Baker's arms out ending any hope of success after 3f. :\ Another unfortunate day...should have been much better with an ounce of luck. Bank: 100.5pts Staked: 10pts Return: 11.63pts New bank: 102.13pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Folkestone: 3.10 - 1.5pts win Wishes or Watches @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Very poor 2m chase and it may pay to opt for the experience of Wishes or Watches here. Receiving plenty of weight, and off a lowly mark, has shown hints of form inconsistently. Ran well behind She's Humble on penultimate start, but threw in stinkers either side of that run. One was over hurdles, admittedly though. Soft ground chases over 2m seem to suit best. 5312 is its form figures strictly over 16 or 17f on soft or heavy ground over the larger obstacles. Won this race last year off 2lbs lower under the same jockey as today who takes 5lbs off. 3.40 - 2pts win Graduation Night @ 7/2 (VC) This horse looks an out and out stayer on the way it's been finishing its races lately, just lacking in the pace to get involved. Back up to a more reasonable trip on soft ground today should suit in a weak field. Beaten 10l on its last two starts (one over insufficient 20f) and dropped 2lbs since. The 2nd and 3rd of its penultimate race have hacked up since and the winner, Salpierre ran well in a much better race - 3rd in a class 2 handicap - last time. Looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark. Wolverhampton: 4.00 - 3pts win Setters Princess @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) From a jumping pedigree, Setters Princess has run well on all starts over middle distances on the all-weather, barring one poor run at Kempton where there were excuses about luck in running - getting trapped behind a weakening rival. 6512 is its form on the all-weather and this new trip is no concern given Setters Princess' runs in bumpers at the start of its career. In good form lately. Backing up its comfortable win over 12f at Wolverhampton with a closing 2nd behind Suhailah - suggesting that this new trip would benefit greatly. The field looks weak other than a handful with a shout. Santera is a much improved hurdler but I'm never keen on taking such a short price on a horse with limited flat form coming back to the discipline after success over the obstacles. 4.30 - 1pt e/w Mata Hari Blue @ 10/1 (VC) Worth taking a look at this horse back on the polytrack after a mediocre couple of runs on the fibresand at Southwell. Looks to prefer better ground on turf so he may have underperformed on that surface. On good ground or better, and on the all-weather, Mata Hari Blue's form figures at 6f are as follows: 64307231 Went close at Redcar off a mark of 62 and runs off 54 today. Previous runs at Wolverhampton have been decent enough - and these conditions might just bring the best out of the horse in a weakish handicap. 5.30 - 1pt e/w Khanivorous @ 7/1 (Hills) This horse has always shaped as if 7f is his optimum trip - often just not quite seeing out the mile. Form figures show 12 over 7f on polytrack (ignoring its okay 3rd of 7 last time at Southwell). Ran well at Kempton behind Chilli Green recently over a mile, leading and only getting worn down close home to finish under 2l behind in 3rd. Chilli Green is progressive and each of the 1st, 2nd and 4th have run well since. Runs off the same mark today over 7f with Matthew Davies' 3lb claim and can go well if handling Wolverhampton as effectively as Kempton. Has gone well at Lingfield as well. Unlikely to get his own way in front so it may pay to pick up the pieces from Smalljohn and Striker Torres. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Good luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Good luck! :ok Thanks mate :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts What the **** is with my all weather naps and lack of clear runs. Absolute joke again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts And now a 2nd. Becoming very frustrating. On other days we'd be in very nice profit already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Things just not dropping right. Extremely frustrating as we should be well up. Wishes or Watches ran a shocker as the market suggested. Graduation Night was bitterly disappointing. Setters Princess was desperately unlucky. Baker just was stopped on numerous occasions and on a horse that's not that quick, momentum important. Mata Hari Blue ran well but just couldn't get there in 2nd. Khanivorous was staying on but like all good e/w bets was a close 4th. Grr. Staked: 12pts Return: 3.5pts Kempton: 6.10 - 2.5pts win Its You Again @ 85/40 (VC) 6.40 - 1.5pts win Jungle Bay @ 6/1 (Hills) 8.40 - 2pts win Storm Tide @ 3/1 (Hills) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Bank: 93.63pts (-6.37pts). Kempton staked: 6 pts Bank: 87.63pts Return so far: +7.81pts Bank: 95.44pts (-4.56pts) 1 horse to run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts :welcome to the forum BFR, stick with it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts 2 ready winners at Kempton have brought it round fortunately. Biased but deserved on the balance of things in my opinion. New Bank: 103.44pts (+3.44pts) And thanks Danny :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts 3.50 Taunton - 2.5pts win Laneguy @ 11/2 (Bet365) Just putting my first out there now. RP site down for maintenance so won't really be looking at form until later. Backed this last week at 20/1. It was nearly brought down, losing any chance. Now it's much shorter. Frustrating but there we go. Here is my reasoning for last week: Pretty grim handicap chase this one, but Laneguy looks an interesting runner and must have a chance on its best form. Close 2nd in a point to point and another good run when falling hopefully will bode well for Laneguy's chasing career, and was twice placed in maiden/novice hurdles - even if beaten quite a distance. Pulled up in a handicap hurdle in May, and the same result was the case on its return/chase debut in October. If forgiving him that, as he was entitled to need it, it's 6th of 7 last time, whilst not looking great, isn't actually too bad relative in this race. The 5th was rated 105, the 4th has won twice since (now rated 109), the 3rd has run okay since, the 2nd has been narrowly defeated, and the winner - War Party - has hacked up since and is now rated 118. The step up in trip is fine and has been dropped 5lbs. Worth a punt at a big price in a poor race. It was jumping brilliantly last week and travelling too. Unfortunately jumped too well at a crucial fence. The problem being it was straight into the back of a falling horse. Was virtually brought down, stopped to a walk, before continuing tailed off - and still only beaten around 18l in the circumstances. This looks a bit of a better race - in the sense that it's a novice chase with a few runners with the potential to improve. Kirby's Glen is the favourite - and was the winner of the race in which Laneguy competed last week. Horses such as Owner Occupier and Catholic Hill have solid shouts too. Couldn't ignore Laneguy though. Was top weight and giving 10lbs to Kirbys Glen. They meet here with Laneguy 7lbs better off. And I think Laneguy would have been right in the shake-up last time anyway. It's all still speculation though. It could have bombed out last time anyway, and may not jump a fence at Taunton today, but feel this could be a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts Cheeky :eek re your Donny plan with Jordy :spank Good luck if you're punting today :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts Cheeky :eek re your Donny plan with Jordy :spank Good luck if you're punting today :ok :rollin Here we go today. Southwell: 2.40 - 2pts win New Latin @ 3/1 (Hills) Showed consistent form in maidens for Mark Johnston before two slightly disappointing runs at Kempton. The latter especially. Had a bad draw that day and perhaps can be ignored - especially considering that field was actually reasonably good in comparison to this one (plenty of 80+ ratings in there). New Latin is rated 72 and at the weights has a massive chance. On the figures So Is She has a great chance but I prefer the now Frank Sheridan trained horse here. Bounced back from its Kempton run with a maiden win on the fibresand here over a mile. Its running looked as if Southwell would suit in its previous runs and this was true as it won - and came clear with the 2nd. Back down to 7f shouldn't be a problem at all and the small field should suit (form figures 231 in races containing 6 runners or less). Changed hands for 13,000gns so clearly has some ability, and hopefully enough to win this race. 3.10 - 1pt win Dream Catcher @ 6/1 (Hills) Taking a punt on this one. French import who has failed to beat a rival in its two runs in England - one in a Group 3 and the other in a Lingfield claimer! Steps right back to 5f here where it won 3 out of 4 starts in France - only failing in a Group 3, won by a horse who subsequently ran 7l behind Dream Ahead. Has won over 7f which makes its latest stinker concerning as it shouldn't have weakened that badly in a very poor race, but perhaps needed the run after a 4 month absence. Perhaps wants further than 5f nowadays but if it is his optimum trip then could be well handicapped here. Did winning on soft ground in France so the surface hopefully won't be too much of a problem, and can hopefully bounce back to form today. Taunton: 2.20 - 2pts win Merehead @ 3/1 (Hills) This horse showed a lot of promise in bumpers before running a sound race on its hurdling debut, beaten 18l by Kid Cassidy. That looks a hot little race with the 2nd, Tornado Bob, hacking up twice since and then running well in a class 2. That horse is now rated 143 and only beat Merehead 3l. The 3rd, Ohio Gold, ran okay behind Bobs Worth last time (beaten 22l). These 4 pulled nicely clear of another subsequent winner in 5th. Merehead ran as if needing extra yardage and got it at Chepstow last time. Just raced keenly and on soft ground struggled to see the race out - weakening into 3rd, beaten 10l by Our Father and Cotillion. Still think this horse has plenty of potential and hopefully will settle better today. Coupled with better ground, it should see the trip out stronger and hopefully come home in front. 3.20 - Laneguy (see above) :dude Wolverhampton later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts Thank God for Laneguy! Two seconds and a fourth - thought it was going to be frustrating again but Laneguy hacked up as I had hoped. Staked: 7.5pts Returned: 16.25pts New Bank: 112.88pts (+12.88pts) Wolverhampton to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +12.88pts Wolverhampton: 5.40 - 2pts win Romantic Queen @ 7/2 (Hills) This horse goes best over c&d and looks best in at the weights here. 1134 is the horse's form over c&d under Matthew Davies who gets on with the horse really well. Smallish field will suit and can win this race off good terms. 7.10 - 2pts win John Potts @ 5/2 (Hills) Weak handicap this and can go the way of prolific recent winner John Potts. Up to a mark of 60 but won 4 this winter over c&d and ran into a strong favourite fancied to go on to better things last time out. Possibly weighted to the hilt, but a weak race and looks the percentage call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: BFR Racing Thread +12.88pts Romantic Queen was disappointing but John Potts won again. Bank: 112.88pts (+12.88pts) Wolverhampton staked: 4pts Wolverhampton return: 7pts New Bank: 115.88pts (+15.88pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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