NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights)

[Crouch Potato]

Top Regular Season Pointscorer - Jarrod Croker E/W 1/4 1-2-3 @ 26.00 Betchoice I really fancy the Raiders this year. Orford is an experienced, title winning halfback who knows how to use his backline, particularly his fullback. Dugan is an awesome fullback -- in ten years time, he'll easily be the best of his generation IMO. Raiders can be very prolific at home and when they get Campese back they'll have even more attacking prowess. Croker is a fairly accurate kicker, having netted 53/63 goals last year. What's more significant is that he only kicked in 14 games. He should kick in all 24 games this year and I fully expect him to improve on his 5 tries (in 24 games) last year. In 2009 he got 12 in 21, so he certainly could become more prolific in that area. Regardless, I think these odds are just BRILLIANT. He's a better kicker than Goodwin, playing in a better attacking team, and though not as prolific a try scorer, is over 3x the odds. For me this is just a brilliant bet. Fetuli Talanoa Top Regular Season Try-scorer @ 41 Betchoice Souths were the 2nd most prolific try scoring team last year and the most prolific in the season before that. Whilst Merritt has been the top scorer over these two years there is a big factor that makes me want to take Talanoa here - GREG INGLIS. Inglis is a beast of a left centre and he sets up his winger countless times. Talanoa, already quite prolific on his own, will surely benefit in a big way from this and at these odds is a must bet.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) 10pts - Raiders to make the top 8 @ 1.95 (Centrebet) 3pts - Raiders to make the top 4 @ 4.00 (Centrebet) 1pt - Raiders to win Premiership @ 16.00 (Centerbet) Before I say anything, i'll just mention that Raiders are my team so there is undoubtedly going to be some bias here. :unsure Canberra have recruited very well over the off season which will add to a team that already had a huge amount of potential. Their back line is young and talented, and with the additions of Ferguson and Orford they get some much needed experience and competition for positions. While their backline is up there with some of the best, their forward pack is, in my opinion, the best in the league. They have 2 starting props that are Australian reps, and backrower in Harrison who is a NZ rep and White coming off the bench who is also a recent Australian and NSW rep! The 2 positions that cause some concern would have to be Hooker and 5/8 (that is until Campese gets back somewhere around Round 10-15). I expect a finish somewhere between 5th-8th with a real possibility of sneaking into the Top 4. I feel that once Campese gets back, they will be a serious premiership contender as long as some of the young backs don't start believing their own headlines. 3pts - Souths to miss the Top 8 @ 2.65 (Local) Yes, Souths have recruited Inglis. Yes, they have a strong forward pack. But the one thing I don't like about Souths is their inconsistency. They are talked up at the start of every year, and they still are always on the fringes of the 8 come round 26. They have great players that seem to only show up every 2nd week. Players like Sutton and Burgess can be absolute match winners when they put their heart into a game, but they don't seem to do this every week. I see Inglis as a very similar player. On his day, he can turn a match, but during the Home and Away season, he constantly looks like his heart isn't in it. He is stunning for QLD and Australia and through finals series, but throughout the 26 rounds he looks like he can't fire himself up enough. I'm not saying he isn't a world class player, just that he seems to need an excuse to play to his full potential. I expect Souths to finish somewhere from 6th-10th and so I think 2.65 is good value. 2pts - Knights to win Wooden Spoon @ 10.00 (Centrebet) Uate and Gidley. These are the only 2 ways I can see the Knights getting off the bottom of the ladder come round 26, and 1 or both of them is going to need to hit some hot form for that to happen. Their forward pack just isn't strong enough. Sure Costigan played some great footy at the Dragons, but I am not sure if he can repeat this form at a struggling Knights club. He is now playing at his 4th club and the Dragons seem to be the only club he really performed for. De Gois is a good Hooker but he needs to step up to the level he played at before making the move to Newcastle. Onto their opposition, I think the Cowboys have some good players this year. Obviously Thurston is crucial to their success, but Tariq Sims, the TYC Player of the Year in 2010 will be making the step up to First Grade in far north Queensland as well. Matt Bowen could also add some punch to the backline. I predict a strong year for Thurston and he should lift them off the bottom of the ladder. The Eels. Well, the less said about Parramatta the better I guess. Their club has been in complete turmoil with every bloke calling it quits from the Wagga Wagga seniors competition being linked to play for them. Their recruitment has been dire, such as Carl Webb? He is just simply past it in my opinion. Young halves combination who will struggle, and once again their season rests on the shoulders of Jarryd Hayne. The Sharks are the biggest competitor to the Knights winning the Spoon but I feel they should be able to do enough to at least grab onto 15th spot. Their forward pack is much better than Newcastle, with players like Gallen, Snowden, Douglas and Tupou just to name a few. It is their back line that really lets them down. They won't let forward packs run over them in the same way I think the Knights might though and this should keep them in games with the chance to grab points every now and then. 1pt e/w - B. Ferguson Top Tryscorer E/W 1/4 1,2,3 @ 51 (Local) Blake is a great finisher as he showed at the Sharks, and I feel that on the fringes of such a strong forward pack, he should get plenty of chances to prove that this year. He should play outside of Croker who can definitely set up a try as well. Also interested in the price on Thompson, who was up there near the top of this list before he was injured half way through the season. Most places seem to have taken down his odds due to injury concerns leading into round 1. Well then, sorry for the long write up! Can't wait for the season to get underway! 2 more weeks to go. Best of luck everyone. :ok

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) I like your Pointscorer pick as well Crouch, but am just a bit worried they might share the goalkicking around with Orford and Campese both capable of taking over if needed. :\

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) Naw, Campese is out til Round 13 and they didn't have him kick last year to help him avoid doing anything, so they wont have him kicking over Croker when he returns. Croker got 53/63 last year and has kicked in the trials. Orford being a halfback doesn't really need any more pressure and I think the job is Croker's. Even if there is some doubt, the value is still too good to ignore IMO. Speaking of Raiders hard to ignore... Josh Dugan Top Try-Scorer @ 41 Sportingbet Remember how well Brett Stewart used to be at scoring tries? Well Orford was a big reason for that. He links and uses his fullback very well and Dugan is that man for Canberra. He's an absolute superstar, can break tackles at will and is very dangerous in support. I'm a big Dugan fan and can't resist this bet. Josh Dugan Dally M @ 15 Sportingbet Dugan, like I said, is a superstar. He's dynamic. He breaks tackles. He changes games. And he looks flashy and brilliant doing it. The perfect recipe for Dally M votes. I expect the Raiders to score a lot of points this year and I expect Dugan to be heavily involved in everything good about Canberra. With Campese out and Orford I suspect in a more organizational role I think Dugan has a big chance to stand out in games and win votes. Issac Luke Dally M @ 31 Sportsbet Until he got suspended last year Luke was easily leading this competition. He impressed with smart sharp running from dummy half. He was the 2 punch behind a string of great 1 punch forwards - Taylor, Asotasi, Burgess. I think Souths as a team are over-rated, but as an attacking unit I think they are under-rated. Most tries in 2009, 2nd most in 2010. This team plays great attacking footy and Luke's work from dummy half is often a feature. For me these odds are much too big. For the record, I'm not a Raiders fan. I'm a Broncos fan. But I'm a big believer in the squad Canberra have this year and the attacking qualities of Souths. Hence all my bets involve players from these teams.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) J. Thompson Top Tryscorer @ 101 E/W 1/4 1,2,3 He was up there last season until he was injured with about 5-10 rounds to play. Should play centre this year for Canberra with the club having a huge amount of depth in the Second Row. Could call him a 'selfish' player as he is one of those centres who doesn't seem to pass out to his winger all that much, and can run over most defences if there is any indication they are sitting back on their line.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) Bet is with Betchoice by the way.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) Forgot to include this one, but pretty obvious I was on it anyway! Canberra Raiders 2011 Premiers @ 17 Will Hill Raiders have a dynamic halves pairing in Orford and Campese and the games of these two men will compliment each other nicely. In Josh Dugan they have the best fullback in the competition and an exceptionally well balanced forward pack that feature two State of Origin Props, State of Origin backrower Learoyd-Lahrs and Kiwi International Bronson Harrison, who is the game's premier offloader of the football. This is balanced out by the defensive workhorses of Fensom and Tongue. Furthermore, Raiders are one of the few teams who receive a genuine advantage when at home and all these factors combined make for a standout bet.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) Absolutely delighted with the way the Raiders have started. Croker is already the favourite with Centrebet and I can't quite figure out how he's not with Sportingbet too. :hope He can avoid injury. Speaking of that Raiders game, I thought Ferguson looked hyper dangerous, particularly as a kicking target. Reminded me a bit of Folau, who fell one short of Top Tryscorer last year. Anyway, it's prompted me to follow Lahrio. I'm stunned the odds have held: Blake Ferguson Top Tryscorer @ 51 Centrebet Ferguson was very dangerous for the Raiders in the first game and was a consistent target on bombing raids. He almost had a second and with players like Orford, Dugan and Campese to return at some stage, I feel the Raiders will become even stronger in attack. This will be to the benefit of all their backs, but with Ferguson such a big presence off bombs, I feel that he might benefit the most and really give this market a shake.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2011 Season Thread (Including Outrights) I decided to eventually follow you Crouch with Croker albeit at worse odds. But so far the bet is looking good. After 4 rounds, I am liking K. Fai- Fai Loa E/W 1/3 @ 101.00 (Sportsbet) for Top Tryscorer as well. He is on the end of a good back line with the best halfback in the world. Cowboys haven't played too badly either so if he can keep his spot in the team with more performances like last weekend, he should shorten considerably over the coming weeks. In saying that, some places have him as low at 34.00 already! The only reason I can see as to why he would be such long odds is that the bookie doesn't believe he will hold his spot. I am willing to take a risk that his form will force Neil Henry to keep him on the wing.