betrader Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 LOGISTIC RATINGS. When assessing any football match most people, including experts and odds compilers, base their calculations on immediate past performance and league position of opposing teams to decide the possible winner or draw in match odds. Similar methods are used in assessing the chance of a horse winning a race when judging previous finishing positions in previous races. For instance a favourite’s last placings on paper may be 54153211 which to a novice punter may appear to be running into form and worth favouritism on the fact that it has won it’s last two races and placed twice before the wins; however they don’t take into account the fact that the previous four runs were over a different distance and conditions. Taking into consideration the horses last runs over similar distance and conditions, the form readings may well be ~ 5453 ~ not such a favourites chance now is it? Logistical ratings in assessing football matches should also be based on previous results against teams of similar ability to the immediate opponents. For example the home team currently with just 16 points and in the relegation zone may be playing against a mid table side 32 points. On the face it appears the away side having just had three wins on the bounce will have every chance of winning, after taking into consideration home advantage, after all the home side have lost their last or drawn most of their games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. I have chosen one match from tonight’s games as a prime example. Bundesliga 2 ~ Oberhousen V Paderborn. Both teams last five finishes in all matches reads ~ home ~ WLLLD ~ away ~ LDWLW. Now if you were to add up the usual scoring of 3 points win, 1 point draw, 0 points for loss, the conclusion would be ~ home 4 points ~ away 7 points. Ladbrokes early price for the game is home 2.6 ~ draw 3.2 ~ away 2.35 (fav). (W) My logistical ratings strip out the fact that Oberhousen has played against top sides in their previous matches when Paderborn have been playing mostly mediocre sides. The logistical ratings reveal a different set of results ~ home W W W L D ~ away ~ L W L D W. This gives a completely different view of the game and I make Oberhousen faves in match odds to win. Now also instead of using the basic points system for goal difference, I rate goals for and against using similar methods of Arpad Elo in awarding the following points ~ Draw = 0.5 ~ + 1 goal = 1 ~ + 2 goals = 1.5 ~ + 3 goals = 1.75 ~ + 4 goals = 2. The same criteria applies to minus goals where points are deducted. Therefore Oberhousen’s last five (logistical) scorelines of 3-1 1-0 3-0 1-2 1-1 adds up to + 3.75; Paderborn last five (logistical) aways ~ 2-0 (L) 1-2(W) 3-0 2-2 0-2 ~ - 0.25. The mean difference is + + 4 goal difference in favour of Oberhousen. Later match ~ serie B ~ Atlanta V Siena. Last five home (logistical) = W 4-1 W 2-1 L 0-2 D 0-0 W 1-0’ Away = L 3-0 D 1-1 D 2-2 L 1-0 D 0-0. Goal diff = 4.75 in favour of Atlanta. In this case Atlanta are deserved favourites in match odds with 70% of matches being under 2.5. What is more conclusive is that Atlanta should win but with half time scores as follows ~ home 2-0 1-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 ~ away 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 0-0. The unders are 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. AN interesting concept betrader. But how do you get your logistical rating. ?:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. This is a method I've been experimenting with myself, although a bit differently (looking over longer periods than five matches). Very interesting, in theory it should be profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiemcardle Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Oberhausen won 3-0 :clap Atlanta drew 0-0 :clap Good Start :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Like bairn1 and other number crunchers on this forum I am wary of revealing all my sources but anyone can pull previous results of imediate opponents of same ability simply from soccerstats.com. Not as sophisticated as the software i use but can be as effective. I also cross match fair odds from the Warwick university Detech predictor but their software only covers major European leagues. Since taking the logistical view this season my bank percentage has increased considerably but I must stress in football as you know anything can happen to turn over previous trends; the ref may be wearing a ManU shirt or has forgotten to pick up his prescription from Specsavers. Seriously though, any match can turn on a sixpence but overall logical rating trends do indicate alternative market strategies when applied to fair odds over long term. I shall publish future matches with the view of discusssing the alternative trades that anyone can offer as feedback on the logistic findings for the match. In reply to using five match previous abilities, I have found this to be adequate as in the main there are few qualifying matches in the current season and contrary to ELO I believe previous seasons have no relation to current form, although relevent in regular top teams. The Atlanta match just ended 0-0 as predicted but although the price was skinny it was worth scalping the unders. Oberhousen won 2-0 as logical goal difference indicated; just a case of deciding which markets to trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiemcardle Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. who do u include in top sides ? top 3 ? top 6 ? top 10 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. i can understand the logic when related to football, but using in in horse racing is absolutely pointless. .... 5453 ~ not such a favourites chance now is it?.... It depends. If your imaginary horse was running tomorrow over 7 furlongs on good ground in a class 4 race and those figures were earned whilst racing against class 2 horses then, yes, it could well be a worthy favourite. Also, there's the issue of weight. A football team isn't handicapped when it wins a race and then plays against a lower team, horses often are. Again, your imaginary horse may well improving with every run at this distance and the additional weight it may have been given in it's last race might well not be enough to prevent it winning. Good start with the football predictions:clap You'd do well to stick to that game and forget the horse racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Top sides are relative to possitions held over previous seasons as in the prem we usually expect ManU, Chelsea, Arsenal and what used to be Liverpool, now Man City to gain the most points in a season. In Scotland it's the old firm and spain Barca & Real. Odds on offer for top teams are usually skinny but occasionally can be traded, in fact I am researching Frankfurt V B.Leverkusen (2nd) right now for logic ratings as they are above evens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Yeah ONEDUNME......my sentements exactly on horse racing, I rarely ever trade in the mugs game of racing. The reason I compared it was as an example.....the beauty of applying logistics to football is that one only has the other team & draw to beat not a whole host of other runners run by gambling stables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiemcardle Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. what are your selections for tomorrow ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Frankfurt ( mid 3rd) V B.Leverkusen (top 6). Not so cut and dried as first thought ~ this match is closely contended. Logic stats. Home V top 6 = W 2-1 W 3-2 W 2-1 W 1-0 (BEAT Dortmund) L 0-3 GD = + 2.25. Away V mid 3rd D 1-1 W 2-3 W 0-1 W 2-4 L 1-0. GD = +3. Overs + 60% BTTS = 60%. Leverkusen -0.5 = L W W W L. Frankfurt + 0).5 = W W W W L. H/T-F/T market ~ Frankfurt W/W = 0 wins in 5 games ~ 0 wins in last 10 overall. BF odds 7.4 back – 8.00 lay ~ note the gap. Leverkusen ~ W;W = 1 win in 5 ~ 2 wins in 10. BF odds 3.6 back ~ 3.75 lay. Can anyone suggest a trading strat for this game? I shall research other games in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. You say that your logistical ratings on Oberhausen for example give results of WWWLD The "Top Sides " concerned were Bochum at 3rd in the current tables with the other Teams at 10th, 14th, 17th, and 18th last. I am somewhat confused here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Oberhausen won 3-0 :clap Atlanta drew 0-0 :clap Good Start :beer you had Atlanta by 4.75 goals??!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. WARNING! I stated earlier that anyone can use soccerstats.com to assess matches but on assessing the WBA V W.HAM match today I noted WBA drew 1-1 with Spurs earlier in the season when Spurs were in 11th position. Spurs are now 5th in a tight premier season. Soccerstats will show WBA drawing against Spurs in their current position; therefore soccerstats.com data is not entirely accurate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. You say that your logistical ratings on Oberhausen for example give results of WWWLD The "Top Sides " concerned were Bochum at 3rd in the current tables with the other Teams at 10th, 14th, 17th, and 18th last. I am somewhat confused here. The logic rating software uses algorithms based on database recordings of league positions of match dates as stated in the WBA example ~ they drew with Spurs at the time when Spurs were in the lower ability band, not as Spurs are now in higher position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. you had Atlanta by 4.75 goals??!! Yes you are quite correct in pointing this out Muppet..... 4.75 goals to Atlanta does not mean they will win by a distance, it indicates goal difference in the recorded matches. The stats indicated a low scoring game in agreement with the market; if one team were to break the deadlock it would be Atlanta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Do you have a fixed cut-off point for top sides in all leagues or have you found they vary. For example in the Premiership you may remove the top 4 teams in the SPL just the top 2, another way of doing this could be looking at past odds where you remove any results against teams at say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Do you have a fixed cut-off point for top sides in all leagues or have you found they vary. For example in the Premiership you may remove the top 4 teams in the SPL just the top 2, another way of doing this could be looking at past odds where you remove any results against teams at say This point brings me back to early days when starting the quest. It was an original idea to form a separate table within each league ~ without the top sides; in other words the fixture list may have been cruel enough to lumber a moderate team with a number of fixtures against big 4 and top third teams which results in apparent poor form. Then they are pitched against another team which may be higher in the league mainly because they have results against teams of lower ability. Obviously the first quoted team may continue their bad run against what may be considered similar opposition, this is where goal difference is important in determining how good or bad they performed against the recent top sides. When indicators show a team that has a low minus in goal diff against top teams then not only do they perform better against lower rated sides; often value can be found against the market. These days I do assess matches involving top teams or where the fav is short priced but look for relevant markets where odds pivot around evens ~ example O/U. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Today I shall publish the logical ratings as I find and after taking action myself on BF but without the full scorelines as it takes too much time to reproduce here whilst studying. So far ~ WBA V W.HAM ~ 60% overs – 60% BTTS ~ not conclusive for trading the odds. More conclusive is the AH with WBA @ -0.5 = L L W L L ~ W.HAM +0.5 ~ L W W W W. I have been matched @ 2.08 although odds may drift further I believe this is fair value for away side and the draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Thanks for the useful pointers, I notice you mention the Warwick university Detech predictor, I don't suppose you have any past data from this site, it would be useful to back test ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Portosummaga V Livorno. ~ serie B. Home = 10% win V top half ~ away = 90% V bottom 6. Current odds for Livorno = AH -0.5 (giving away the draw) = 2.37 ~ MO straight win = 2.46. I have taken the straight win obviously as fair value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Thanks for the useful pointers' date=' I notice you mention the Warwick university Detech predictor, I don't suppose you have any past data from this site, it would be useful to back test ?[/quote'] Good point Kanga, up to now I have been using Detech as a value pointer to the ratings and have not recorded a database. This could actually initial starting a new thread based on Detech match values, however as stated at present it only covers major European leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Corection....the Detech does include predictions for English divisions. Below I have reproduced match odds and CS predictions for Frankfurt V B. Leverkusen with percentages calculated into fair odds. Ein Frankfurt Vs Leverkusen 1 - 1 12.9% 0 - 1 11.7% 1 - 0 9.7% 0 - 0 8.8% 1 - 2 8.6% Chances: Home win 30.8% Away Win 41.9% Draw 27.3% Expected League Points: Home: 1.20; Away: 1.53 Expected Goal Difference: -0.23 Home 3.25 ~ away 2.39 ~ draw 3.66 ~ current BF odds below ~ 3.75 2.18 3.6 ~ value only on home win. 1 - 1 12.9% 0 - 1 11.7% 1 - 0 9.7% 0 - 0 8.8% 1 - 2 8.6% Chances: Home win 30.8% Away Win 41.9% Draw 27.3% 1 - 1 12.9% 0 - 1 11.7% 1 - 0 9.7% 0 - 0 8.8% 1 - 2 8.6% Chances: Home win 30.8% Away Win 41.9% Draw 27.3% 1 - 1 12.9% 0 - 1 11.7% 1 - 0 9.7% 0 - 0 8.8% 1 - 2 8.6% Chances: Home win 30.8% Away Win 41.9% Draw 27.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. AC MILAN V PARMA. The most conclusive stats in this match are goals scored and conceded by both teams. Milan V bottom half = 9 goals for – two goals against. Parma V top 6 = 10 goals for – 12 against. Although Milan have midfield injury problems, the market expects a win @ odds of 1.44, this indicates the possibility of goals and with market expectation, the scoreline of 2-1 should shorten considerably in play after the first goal, especially if the fav strikes first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. ROMA V NAPOLI Stats indicate 90% draw H/T ~ scalp draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Yes you are quite correct in pointing this out Muppet..... 4.75 goals to Atlanta does not mean they will win by a distance, it indicates goal difference in the recorded matches. The stats indicated a low scoring game in agreement with the market; if one team were to break the deadlock it would be Atlanta. but where was the prediction that meant it was a winner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Saturday ~ logic rating indicators & personal trades. Frankfurt ( mid 3rd) V B.Leverkusen (top 6). Trade ~ not conclusive ~ pass. WBA V W.HAM. Trade ~ +0.5 West Ham ~ WON. Portosummaga V Livorno. ~ serie B. Trade ~ Livorno win MO ~ LOST. AC MILAN V PARMA. Trade ~ back/lay 2-1 CS after goal ~ WON. ROMA V NAPOLI Trade = scalp draw 1st half ~ WON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Aha Muppet it’s good to be sceptical, is why I have posted here. The more questions, the more we can iron out any faults in ratings and of course no method on earth can prove to be 100% infallible. Maybe my presentation of the findings need to be polished ~ the findings for the Atlanta match were ~ In this case Atlanta are deserved favourites in match odds with 70% of matches being under 2.5. What is more conclusive is that Atlanta should win but with half time scores as follows ~ home 2-0 1-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 ~ away 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 0-0. The unders are 100%. My apologies for not breaking the sentence, if you have misunderstood then others may have done so too. The indicators are to scalp the unders early in the first half. I hope this clears up the matter. Break up the factors and you see the ratings agree with the market on favouritism ~ 70% unders is not a conclusive trade in MO ~ What is more conclusive is that Atlanta should win but with half time scores as follows ~ home 2-0 1-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 ~ away 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 0-0. The unders are 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Hello Betrader, Firstly thank you for your effort and explanation. Do you think it is interesting to compare team with past odds rather than past league position ? fictive example : Milan - Parma : 1.44 - 4.6 - 7 - Milan won last 5 home game when Milan had odds between 1.40 and 1.50 - Parma lost last 5 away game when Parma had odd between 6.00 and 8.00 what do you think about this point of view ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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