AndrewKent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi there, So this thread is also linked to the study I have carried out on Paul Steele's Profitable Football Betting. The last section of his book covers the concept of Perm Betting. From what I have read, the systems identify what games to bet on and from there, he Perms the bets. For example, identifying 3 home wins (Bankers) and a combination of 2 draws or away wins. My question is about placing the bets. Are they placed as part of an accumulator or are the bets placed individually? I'm thinking that when the author is talking about putting on "lines", he is talking about accumulators? Kind regards, Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Hi Andy If I understand your question correctly, each line is an accumulator, so for Plan D version 1 you would place 4 accumulators A possibly useful site might be betexplorer, where you can add selections to a slip and it tells you where the best odds for the accumulator are. I'm not associated with that site, I guess I should add Interested to see how you implement the ideas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Thanks, I appreciate your help. I guess the reason I was confused is the way he calculated how much of the overall stake to place on each line. I take it you have seen this kind of thing before? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Used to see a lot of that sort of thing back when I was a settler. Right pain in the arse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Andy Do you mean you want to adjust the stake so that the same return is achieved whichever of the 4 acca's came up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Well, I have noticed in the last week or so (since I have been looking at the ratings the system is producing) that the games that the ratings are predicting I should bet on a generally quite low. For example, back Barcelona against Racing Santander. You don't need a system to tell you Barca will win at home. For the Perm Betting chapter, Steele takes the best of the home bets, the Bankers, and the best of the away bets. I then looked at the combinations and the calculations that were used to distribute the stake amongst the "lines". I've managed to get this all working but I just wanted to make sure that I have understood this all correctly. I'll post up the table I have tomorrow maybe that will help. My explanation seems vague at best! Sorry guys! Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Perm Betting **Deleted my post as the table had errors in it** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Perm Betting His calc's look fine to me simple dutching Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Thank you, I have heard of the concept of dutching but I've never looked into it so I didn't know what it was or how best to use it. So, would you believe this a smart way to take low value bet (that I have ascertained have a high probability of succeeding using a ratings system)? I'd like to hear your opinions on this. Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Its a risk averse way of betting If you are unsure of the of the percentage you should place on each bet individually for optimum returns. it is often better to dutch so that whatever bet comes in you know exactly what the profit will be as each bet pays the same. I find it better than level stakes (but thats just my opinion) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Perm Betting I know this is a bit of a "well duh!" statement but I am not looking for big wins, but just consistent ones. I would have thought that dutching would offer more chance of that IF the ratings systems that determine the picks was accurate? From this example, I would need to win once every three weeks in order to make a small profit? Based on this, and the research I have done on my previous threads into developing a ratings system, do you think it would be a good idea to test this out with small stakes or even the paper betting approach and tweak as I go on? I know that I sound like I am bleeding everyone for advice but if you could see the jump in my betting knowledge in the last month of asking questions on here that would explain it! :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Errrrm... I wouldn't like to spoil the fun, but I fail to see advantage of this system... :unsure You stake total of 10 units to get return 34.79 units; in any variant, three bankers must win; additionaly, two more selections must not lose. But if you stake 10 units on three bankers, in this case Rotherham at 1.53, Lille at 1.36 and Hearts at 1.62, you get return of 33.71 units. So, profit is indeed (I'd rather say "only") 4.5 % higher when dutching, but is it really worth risk of Hercules or Osasuna catching the win? I don't think so... :/ Edit: and even if it is worth (which is matter of analysis of oneself), you can simply take Real and Barca at double chance, which will not only save you from hassle of making perms and several slips, but also increase your winnings: I assume that double chance for these matches is 1.03 to 1.05, which will give you return of around 36 units, therefore higher than when dutching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Fromet I think the actual system is being used as an example. It is more the dutching side his question was aimed at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Perm Betting Thanks guys, I really appreciate both your inputs. Yes it's true, the original thread was about the concept of what I now understand as Dutching, however froment's comments about types of bets to put on has given me some ideas. As part of Steele's calculations, he talks about multiplying the odds by each line to end up with a final figure. Is this essentially how an accumulator works? It seems to me that from what your saying, running a three game accumulator on the three bankers might be more sensible than running five, with ethier variants of draws and wins or double chances. I will of course need to back test this however is the CONCEPT of Dutching, still a sensible approach from someone like me who's a bit cautious and inexperienced? And I'm aware that there's no such thing as a safe bet but I'm talking in terms of lowering the risk. Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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