betting-place Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hi all of you, This topic is motivated by http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/us-sports-spread-system-111370/ Well, I ve done some thinking and math and I want to share with you and to ask you am I in right. Regarding the topic : US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM by dear colege Xaviercito, I get idea to make calculation how does it staking system is acting throw loses serias. I shall excange with you my calculation with next conditions: Bank:1000 Stake:1% Bet wining posibility: 50% Did I make any mistakes in understanding of this? [url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/us-sports-spread-system-111370/] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: 10+10 Well, from what I know, you didn't make any mistake - stakes, total lost and math possibility (I'd rather say probability) are correct. Though, what I don't understand (I don't say it's incorrect, I'm just struggling to understand) is last column, "Calc. to attempts"; I suppose you want to say that in out of 16 attempts, 1 attempt will result in 4 losses in a row, or 1 out of 512 attempts will result in 10 losses in a row (or is it 9, according to table?). I suppose you got those numbers using "Longest expected losing run" formula, and strike rate of 50%, therefore equal to bet probaility; so, (log(16)/-log(1-0.50)) is indeed 4, and (log(512)/-log(1-0.50)) is 9, but question is what is probability to hit that losing run, and it largely depends on your strike rate; therefore, you need to know how the system behaves over large enough number of matches. I'd calculate it this way: with strike rate of only 50% after 512 matches, probability to have losing run of 9 matches is ((1+(512-9)*0.50)*(1-0.50)^9), which is 49 %; though, with strike rate of 55%, probability to have such a bad streak drops to 21%. I cannot guarantee for accuracy of above formulas, but they showed to be logical in this case, as well as in some other cases I analyzed; source here: http://www.flatstats.co.uk/horseracing/index.php?cmd=article&id=154 And thumbs up for nice idea and clear spreadsheet, I like to see well organized table! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: 10+10 Though, what I don't understand (I don't say it's incorrect, I'm just struggling to understand) is last column, "Calc. to attempts"; I suppose you want to say that in out of 16 attempts, 1 attempt will result in 4 losses in a row, or 1 out of 512 attempts will result in 10 losses in a row (or is it 9, according to table?). Yes, yes. I suppose you got those numbers using "Longest expected losing run" formula, and strike rate of 50%, therefore equal to bet probaility; so, (log(16)/-log(1-0.50)) is indeed 4, and (log(512)/-log(1-0.50)) is 9, but question is what is probability to hit that losing run, and it largely depends on your strike rate; therefore, you need to know how the system behaves over large enough number of matches. I'd calculate it this way: with strike rate of only 50% after 512 matches, probability to have losing run of 9 matches is ((1+(512-9)*0.50)*(1-0.50)^9), which is 49 %; though, with strike rate of 55%, probability to have such a bad streak drops to 21%.Well, this is something I didnt know. I am on the work and dont have time for study this till tonight...but I will EDIT:OK, I checked this. You re right, with strike rate of 55 probability to have such a bad streak is 21% indeed. And thumbs up for nice idea and clear spreadsheet, I like to see well organized table! :okTnx :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: 10+10 OK, hello again to all. After some notes I ve learned from dear fellow "fromen", I changed a few things in the table. Next follows: I ll also attach the excel file with the table calculation. What is important that U can change "BANK", "STAKE"(in the %) and "WON RATE" fileds in the way U want. http://rapidshare.com/files/444707793/10_10__1__stake.xls - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ABOUT I ll also seize this moment to open my topic, simply called "10+10". As I wrote back this mourning, this topic was motivated by http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/us-sports-spread-system-111370/. Few humble words about me. Near to 30, in betting since I was 18. I am earning nice money on arbs, trades and my own value bet researches.Working my university profession for the serious company and play just after 5pm(euro zone), monday-friday, weekend is just for the families. METHOD I am planing to use the staking system in the way is explained in http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/us-sports-spread-system-111370/ topic. My bank will be 1000 units with 1% start stake. SELECTION I am in dilemma between two of my own researches on the euro soccer leagues. Namely, two years ago I ve made even-odd and AH research for the leagues I ve mentioned. Both of the researches gave over 55% won rate, some leagues even 60%. Off course I am speaking about @1.9 (+/- 5%). Probably will be even-odd number of goals play. GOAL To double the bank. Note: I travel at Friday on business trip for whole next week so posting with intensity will start probably for 10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: 10+10 Ok,the trip was prolonged till thuesday. Ill go with real money, but with not big bank. First stake 1% of the bank etc. Selection note: If I have at least two or more selected matches starting in the same time...I ll do next, If I need to stake for example 20, I ll simply devide stake with number of matches. 1.Seria: 10 10 10 10 10 = Stake:20 Num.of matches:2 Stake per match:10 St.Etienne-Toulouse Even @1.90 10 Lorient-Brest Even @1.90 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: 10+10 1.Genoa-Parma EVEN stake 20 2. Nancy-Montpellier EVEN If Genoa-Parma Won stake:20, If lost: stake 30 3. Espanyol-Villareal EVEN etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: 10+10 1.Genoa-Parma EVEN stake 20 2. Nancy-Montpellier EVEN If Genoa-Parma Won stake:20, If lost: stake 30 3. Espanyol-Villareal EVEN etc... 3. Espanyol-Villareal EVEN stake 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: 10+10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: 10+10 A lot of good work, Betting-Place...... but potentially suicidal, I'm afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: 10+10 A lot of good work' date= Betting-Place...... Thanks mate! but potentially suicidal, I'm afraid. I really do appreciate U re opinion but As I wrote few days ago, I have the research behind me with over 55% strike rate on this odds and I strongly believe there is a value with this play and with this stake plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: 10+10 Le Havre - Chateauroux EVEN stake:40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: 10+10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: 10+10 St.Johnstone-Hamilton EVEN stake 50 Fulham-Newcastle EVEN IF scotish match is won, stake ll be 40, IF is lost stake ll be 60 ps:Im going on trip till Monday. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: 10+10 Hello to all, I menaged to find net to use for on the short... Reading-QPR EVEN stake 50 greets from Slovenia :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Re: 10+10 Toulouse-Monaco EVEN stake 60 Im going back tonight,tomorow afternoon update... some bad start I have,but I believe its just a bad start :) Greets to all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: 10+10 Toulouse-Monaco EVEN stake 60 Im going back tonight,tomorow afternoon update... some bad start I have,but I believe its just a bad start :) Greets to all In a hurry till tonight, writing from the work place... off topic: all sunday matches in Calcio, started at 3pm and latest one finished with even number of goals :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: 10+10 Tours - Evian Thonon Gaillard Total:EVEN Stake:50 @1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: 10+10 Tours - Evian Thonon Gaillard Total:EVEN Stake:50 @1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: 10+10 A lot of good work' date= Betting-Place...... but potentially suicidal, I'm afraid. I don't want to be negative, but I don't honestly see how this is going to end up being anything but "suicidal" :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: 10+10 I don't want to be negative' date= but I don't honestly see how this is going to end up being anything but "suicidal" :\ :) Ok, but with all due respect to U and your betting work can U please tell me way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: 10+10 Perhaps "suicidal" is the wrong word.... but it is certainly going to be a long hard struggle to show a profit. With your second "seria" you are currently down 113 units. As I understand the staking system, you will need a good winning streak to get back towards positive territory. And by that time you will have staked a huge amount, leaving you with a negligible "yield". On another point.... in an earlier post you mentioned 55% strike rate. Over the long-run, I dont think this is statistically possible when your selections are based on "even" goals scored. I wish you the best.... and I would love to be proved wrong ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: 10+10 Perhaps "suicidal" is the wrong word.... but it is certainly going to be a long hard struggle to show a profit. With your second "seria" you are currently down 113 units. Yes I am 113 units down, but can be that just a poor start!? I believe U ll agree it can, as mather of fact thats quite normal thing can hapen. Not to mention the fact that non of the matces didnt finish with draw outcome. Off topic: the first 11 matches can be proof to all who wants to try cathing draws with martingale As I understand the staking system, you will need a good winning streak to get back towards positive territory. And by that time you will have staked a huge amount, leaving you with a negligible "yield".Actually I just need my strike rate I ve preticted. ;) On another point.... in an earlier post you mentioned 55% strike rate. Over the long-run, I dont think this is statistically possible when your selections are based on "even" goals scored.By selection I get throw research it is possible. One more thing, Im not saying this strategy cant bring me to the bank bankrot.On the contrary, it can...and I believe I descibed it in my first post (table)...but according the math possibility and with predicted strike rate I get it will hapen much later than I menage to double the bank. Of course, possibility can be a tricky, too...its the same thing IF U have 10 balls in the box, 6 are red, 4 are black and U know that fact. U re making draw with the bett that U ll draw the red one,and U get paid @2 for each correct draw... And ofcourse thats is allways chance to get busted with 10 blacks in a row(U lose your 10 stakes)...but there is a value on red ones. Cause more chances are for You to make a 10 stakes profit earlier than to lose 10 stakes throw the 10 blacks in seria. I wish you the best....U to mate ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: 10+10 Leyton-Swindon EVEN stake:60 @1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: 10+10 Leyton-Swindon EVEN stake:60 @1.90 With 3-0 FT result one more lost...which makes more poorer start :) But, I still dont have doubts about this plan. Yesterday and today with out bets since we have just international matches. See U tomorow with update on weekend Greets to all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: 10+10 Atalanta-Siena EVEN stake:70 @1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: 10+10 Atalanta-Siena EVEN stake:70 @1.90 1.Cagliari-Chievo EVEN stake 60 2.Almeria-Levante EVEN 2. Sociedad-Osasuna EVEN Note: both matches starts at 5pm, so stake: IF 1.match neds won stake is 25 for each match, IF 1.match ends lost stake is 35 for each match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: 10+10 1.Cagliari-Chievo EVEN stake 60 2.Almeria-Levante EVEN 2. Sociedad-Osasuna EVEN Note: both matches starts at 5pm, so stake: IF 1.match neds won stake is 25 for each match, IF 1.match ends lost stake is 35 for each match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: 10+10 Mallorca-Bilbao EVEN stake:40 @1.90 Novara-Torino EVEN stake:40 @1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: 10+10 ..... or perhaps Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao ?? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: 10+10 ..... or perhaps Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao ?? :unsure Of course, tnx :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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