Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan

[cpo]

To me there are some decent bets at Wolverhampton tomorrow night but the way my luck has been recently they probably have no chance. 4.10 Welcome Approach This one returned form a short break in November where he ran over 5f at Wolves. The horse was held up at the back, travelled well and then ran on well under hands n heels riding. Think the step up in trip for this one will be ideal. They will probably go a good pace in the race which will suit this horse. He has a decent draw in 6 where he can just sit in behind the pace. I see Kheley and Double Carpet as the main dangers as I think Lets Move it is a far better horse at Southwell rather than anywhere else. These 2 both like to front run so I am hoping they will take each other on and set up for my selection. 4.40 Radiator Rooney Second division of the handicap will hopefully go to this horse. Tipped it up last time as my BBOTD where he ran well enough but was outpaced and then ran on again over 5f at Lingfield. Think the step up to 6f again at this track will suit the horse. Likes to be held up so will require luck in running but if he gets the break should be thereabouts at the finish. The only danger in the race for me is itsthursdayalready who has been running consistently well at Southwell. It has the best of the draw today but I think this one might just need a little further than 6f at Wolves so I am happy to take him on with Radiator Rooney. 5.10 Cardinal A much more competitive race than the previous 2 as there are many in with chances here. Cardinal's last run at Lingfield was quite disappointing where he finished well beaten behind Secret Asset. That was a class 3 race and Secret Assest was then sent off favourite for a class 2 race following that run where he was only beaten just over a length. Cardinal's previous run to that was very impressive when he won by 4l beating Norville. This is represents a step up in class from that race but the way he travelled and quickened in that race is enough to warrant a bet from me today. Although he didn't beat much that day, he won very cosily under hands and heels under today's jockey. Ajara is the main danger to the selection as he has racked up a hat-trick at Wolves beating recent winners Master Leon, Itsthursdayalready and garstang in those races. May still be on the improve. Jigajig is closely matched with that one its last run. Onceaponatime ran well last time out at Southwell and will be a danger if reproducing that here. Methaly is very consistent but I don't like the jockey as I don't think he is that strong yet. Looked very poor last time out for me where he got beat by diriculous. 10/1 for Cardinal I think is a big price if able to reproduce his last run at wolves. The track was riding slow that day so could have the same conditions. 6.40 Mountain Myst Last but not least I think this one has a decent chance. Still looked green last time out at Lingfield where he found himself detached turning in and then all of a sudden took off down the straight and snatched 3rd. That wasn't much of a race but he should come on again for that run. Nothing spectacular with the already raced horses in this one so I am looking at the newcomers as the possible dangers. I just think if this horse can improve again and settle better in this race, and then show that excellent turn of foot at the business end he should go close. Don't have any prices yet and will put the bet on tomorrow but will put these in a little e/w acca and a lucky 15. Just realised I have gone for Amy Ryan and Hayley turner doubles...... hummm :unsure

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Lingfield Park 15:00
Selection	Pascaline (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	14/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 0.00
Reasoning	One of two runners today from trainer John Akehurst. I think this is his best chance for a winner because the other one is a tough looking maiden race. Akehurst has his yard in good health looking at the results the last 30 days. 10 runs for 2 winners, 2 second, and 3 more placed third. He had one runner go the off today's C&D and finished good 2nd. The selection have been off a while but I think she's ready based on his trainers form. She also acts well on this surface having raced here 4 times and finished third twice.

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan Anyone be able to tell me why Parhelion is rated 70 yet carrying 2lb lighter than the horses rated 68 in the 14:30

[Brad]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan Parhelion is a 4 year old and gets a 4lb weight for age allowance.

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan Cheers Brad thats why the other 4 yr olds have aswell hey:spank. What age does weight allowance stop I thought it was 3.

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan Does age allowance go by class as Denton Royal in the 15:30 only gets a 2lb allowance.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan 3.00 LINGFIELD INQUISTRESS 20-1 1PT EW(24-1 >Betfair) Havent had a selection in a while,but this one tickles my fancy at a nice price...9 go to post for this weak class 6 Handicap race(DIV 1)...And Lingfield is not my favourite track,and if it wasn't for that awful southwell it would be my least favourite track but i'll have a go at this runner. No complaining from the Curley stable is the 8-11 favourite here,and i couldn't be having an 8-11 favourite in a class 6 race,especially one that 's never been over 10f urlongs before and i think it's a big "avoid me" if i ever saw one.That's not saying it won't win but i will be looking to one to beat it..I think the races latest it has won and placed in where very slow affairs.. One i will look to beat it is Inquistress from the J J Bridger Stable.It is hardly in form having finished 9th in both it's previous starts..But i think both those races show some hidden speed in relation to this race and a more positive ride could see it go closer here,as it was slowly into stride and out the back for both races... It is down to a very low mark of 45 here,8 pounds better off than the curley horse,and if Chalmers can get it started well and in mid division it can strike close home..This C&D winner is only one of two that have won over course and distance and the other runner Tous La Deux(16-1) will be a big threat imo,so i will go ew on this one _________________

[Brad]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan The BHA weight for age scale gives concessions up to 4 yrs old, the amount is dependant on distance and time of year. Hope this helps. http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/media/WFA_Flat.pdf#search=%22weight%20for%20age%20scale%22

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan 14:00 - Ling Mr Muddle - 2nd in last two starts over hurdles. One being to Comedy Act who was rated mid 80's in October should cruise this 1pt win 4/1 bet365 14:30 Ling Indian Violet - 2/2 on course with jockey steering both wins didn't find anything at Kempton LTO so back to its hunting ground and upping in trip. 1pt 8/1 bet365.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan SONG TO THE MOON 1.30 Lingfield. 1 point win. Has the ability to win this and should get things go his way today. Trip and surface shouldn't bother him and looks sure to go close I think.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan 2.30 Lingfield - Indian Violet 8/1 VC & Jenny Potts 4/1 VC Big question mark over the trip with Indian Violet but if he does get the trip il think he wins this. Won very comfortably off marks of 50 and 56 over trips of a mile and 10f. The way he travelled over 10f suggests he may get this extra 2 furlongs. Flopped at Kempton last time out but the return to Lingfield where his successes have been should help. Jenny Potts suggested last time out that she's well ahead of her current mark. Travelled sweetly but wasnt given the best of rides by Toby Atkinson and was only beaten by a progressive Prescott runner. Comes here off the same mark and dropped a furlong, won comfortably over 9f in the past so shouldnt be a problem. Trainer bringing this one a fair distance so i doubt she's here to make up the numbers. 5.10 Wolverhampton - Cardinal - 12/1 Bet365 Massive price on this imo, he needs everything to fall right for him and i think he'll get ideal conditions here. His last 3 wins have all been convincing and i think he needs to be held up racing amongst horses. Last time out he ran in a small field that was well strung out and chased a strong pace. His win 2 starts ago over 6f here at Wolverhampton was very comfortable, 8lbs higher for this run doesnt look excessive. Doesnt have the best draw here so im hoping Hayley drops in behind instead of trying to sit close to the pace.

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan 2.30 ling - Cotton king - ew Looks pretty big odds here (currently 14/1 generally available) Lightly raced with just 5 career runs. Won on his only polytrack start at Wolves in his first handicap, beating some of the usual suspects like Carlton Scroop and Straversjoy Tried over 2 miles on heavy ground after that but never got in it Only went up 3 lbs for the handicap win and has gone down a pound since, so only 2 lbs higher now. Has had a few months off so hopefully he'll be fit Most of the runners today are pretty exposed types, he looks like one who could be on the upgrade.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan Empress Leizu 3.00 Lingfield. 1 point win. Needs to be at best against today's favourite, but the favourite not solid enough to warrant being so short and we can give him a run for his money. The trip, track and weights give us claims at best, so at around 5/1 would be the bet for me.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Wolverhampton 18:40
Selection	Tijori (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	14/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 13.00
Reasoning	Raced in three Class 4 maidens last year and showed some promise in that. The runs were at Windsor (6f), Newmarket (6f), and Newbury (1m). He is owned by Malih Lahej Al Basti, an owner who had his best season yet last year. R Hannon is the trainer and he does well for the owner. 3yo maidens from the owner have a decent strike rate at 23%, 7 from 31. His August to December 2010 form was 8 wins out of 24 so I suspect a good outing from his first entry of the year.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan just seen on some other bit of the forum that someone tipped up both Decider 20/1 and Lucky Dan 25/1 :eek

[cc75]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan 5.40 Wolves: Pilgrim Dancer 1pt win @ 7/1 VC BOG Give this one a great chance tonight - ran well LTO over this trip at Lingfield only beaten a length. The form of that run looks solid in this grade of race and having been dropped a further pound in the handicap looks sure to run well IMO. Stable in great form too and nice price.