torn up slip Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Well I fancied Medermit for it before the weekend and now that he's done a number on a a fair chunk of his likely rivals I think he's taken on the look of one of the festival good things. Admittedly i'll not be getting any value but ask me after it's won if im ar$ed. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganjaman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase MEDERMIT Why i think this is the Arkle winner 7 from the last 16 were french bred, 22-24 were 1st or 2nd LTO, only 2 favourites have won since 1992 9 from the last 10 were rated at least 142 over hurdles, only 2 winners were over 7 yo. 6 of Alan Kings winners at Cheltenham were 5-7yos that were 1st or 2nd LTO won between 2m-2m1f at this distance he has saddled 22 runners getting 8 winners 14-22 were at least placed. 36.4% with a profit of £45.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase MEDERMIT Why i think this is the Arkle winner 7 from the last 16 were french bred, 22-24 were 1st or 2nd LTO, only 2 favourites have won since 1992 9 from the last 10 were rated at least 142 over hurdles, only 2 winners were over 7 yo. 6 of Alan Kings winners at Cheltenham were 5-7yos that were 1st or 2nd LTO won between 2m-2m1f at this distance he has saddled 22 runners getting 8 winners 14-22 were at least placed. 36.4% with a profit of £45.50 I am the furthest thing from a "stats" man as it's possible to be. But they are absolutely mental, slap you in a face with a wet salmon if you dont pay them attention stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Well I fancied Medermit for it before the weekend and now that he's done a number on a a fair chunk of his likely rivals I think he's taken on the look of one of the festival good things. Admittedly i'll not be getting any value but ask me after it's won if im ar$ed. :) Captain Chris was the better horse last weekend... Dickie Johnson gave it an awful ride... A better ride and Captain Chris will be pulling away from Medermit up that hill.. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase No way in hell was Captain Chris the better horse. He won't get within an asses roar of Medermit at Cheltenham, mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase No way in hell was Captain Chris the better horse. He won't get within an asses roar of Medermit at Cheltenham' date=' mark my words.[/quote'] You'd imagine that to be the case considering they're going for different races, unless it turns up soft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Christ I'm stupid! Thought they were nailed on to meet in the Arkle again. If they do, I stand by my original statement. Can't bring myself to back Medermit at 11/2 now though but still considering it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredward Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Captain Chris was the better horse last weekend... Dickie Johnson gave it an awful ride... A better ride and Captain Chris will be pulling away from Medermit up that hill.. ;) Bar the fact that both will be in different races in cheltenham Captain Chris doesn't jump well enough for me and that will be more important come chentenham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase I was referring to the race last weekend, i am well aware they wont be meeting at cheltenham.. Johnson made numerous errors on the horse with positioning, placement and leaving it too late to mount a challenge... Captain Chris , even though he blundered at 2/3 fences, gained about 5 lengths on Medermit after jumping the last... Medermit did not make a single mistake the whole race and just held off the challenge, i look forward to the next time the pair meet and i shall re-open the topic when Captain Chris finishes ahead of Medermit.. Monterosso, i am entitled to my opinion... :beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase I was referring to the race last weekend, i am well aware they wont be meeting at cheltenham.. Johnson made numerous errors on the horse with positioning, placement and leaving it too late to mount a challenge... Captain Chris , even though he blundered at 2/3 fences, gained about 5 lengths on Medermit after jumping the last... Medermit did not make a single mistake the whole race and just held off the challenge, i look forward to the next time the pair meet and i shall re-open the topic when Captain Chris finishes ahead of Medermit.. Monterosso, i am entitled to my opinion... :beer You are entitled to it, but it is wrong, regardless of whether CC beats him someday or not. I said he wouldn't beat him at Cheltenham, if they met. Medermit idled in front and flattered Captain Chris big time. He was value for a fair bit further than the half length win and he's a much better going left handed, while CC needs to go right handed, but still can't jump. If I hadn't missed the price then I'd be all over Medermit for the Arkle. He still has a hell of a lot of improvement to come and I reckon he has a massive chance based on how he jumped/traveled last time out. Pure class, until he hit the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase You are entitled to it, but it is wrong, regardless of whether CC beats him someday or not. I said he wouldn't beat him at Cheltenham, if they met. Medermit idled in front and flattered Captain Chris big time. He was value for a fair bit further than the half length win and he's a much better going left handed, while CC needs to go right handed, but still can't jump. If I hadn't missed the price then I'd be all over Medermit for the Arkle. He still has a hell of a lot of improvement to come and I reckon he has a massive chance based on how he jumped/traveled last time out. Pure class, until he hit the front. Ahh yes, my opinion is wrong, your always right... :clap You also thought they were running in the same race at Cheltenham, do your research before you try tell somebody they are wrong.. Have a good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase :eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Hit him with one of your Oscars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Captain Chris was the better horse last weekend... Dickie Johnson gave it an awful ride... Johnson made numerous errors on the horse with positioning, placement and leaving it too late to mount a challenge ----------- what a poor judge of race reading[watching] "my interpretation of your comments" Dont get me wrong Captain Chris is a good horse and maybe develope and improve past Medermit as time progresses. But on Saturdays viewing Medermit was always on top,at any stage of the race over C.Chris,he had pace to lie any position in race his jockey choose,where as C.Chris could'nt,and to blame jockey[r johnson]is quite wrong. The race was won over 2 fences from home,and C.C. was flattered to finish a never nearer 2nd And i did back C.Chris so not talking through my pocket,yes i maybe back C.C against Medermit as i think he can only improve--dependant on price though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Put a small bit on stagecoach Pearl EW as well at 66s Opposes Finnians Rainbow tomorrow but he is a horse on the upgrade and I think he has a chance. FR has not even been tested yet, but has looked good, you never know his jumping may let him down if someone does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Finians Rainbow ran a good race and beat Stagecoach well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Finians Rainbow ran a good race and beat Stagecoach well. Yes. I wouldn't say FR ran a good race though and I certainly wouldn't be backing him at current odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase I saw the bare results - and thought wow good win - I subsequently looked at the video via bet365 site and agree he did not run that good a race so agree with you TheRat :\ - Learns lesson to check video and watch in running . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredward Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase FR jumped poorly throughout. Geraghty on board come the big one but wouldn't touch him at the current prices. Also a big worry is the size of the fields he has beat thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase This looks like a really poor Arkle this year and I can see a big priced winner. I was thinking about putting Finians Rainbow in my 10 to follow bonus horses and may do so because I have no Arkle horse but I wasn't that impressed on Saturday, although it was only a small field and we didn't get to see if it would have battled with Kilmurry if they got level. I think it's a race that is going to take a lot of studying because it is one with a potential shock and big priced winner this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase This looks like a really poor Arkle this year and I can see a big priced winner. I was thinking about putting Finians Rainbow in my 10 to follow bonus horses and may do so because I have no Arkle horse but I wasn't that impressed on Saturday' date=' although it was only a small field and we didn't get to see if it would have battled with Kilmurry if they got level. I think it's a race that is going to take a lot of studying because it is one with a potential shock and big priced winner this year.[/quote'] I agree with you on all but one count. Medermit looks the stand out option for me. I really dont know why he is still the price he is given the way he's ran in all but one of his races this year. Beat a likely couple of rivals Lto and looks versatile as regards the ground. The stats back up the form as well and as such I think at the prices available he is a very backable horse. Mikael D'haguenet is the fly in the ointment if he lines up against him imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Medermit may well be the one to put some dosh on he is a french horse and Alan Kings horses have come into form - Thornton seems to be back to his old fit self not like last year.The horse has ran well this season and ran this side of christmas which is a good plus in my book. Medermit is my Placer in this:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganjaman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase ARKLE TRENDS 2011 The second race on day 1 is the Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers in the past decade including 3 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup and Voy Por Ustedes. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 2-5-24 6yo: 1-3-26 7yo: 5-6-54 8yo: 2-6-27 9yo+: 0-0-8 5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but that has been scrapped so they are unlikely to do as well in the coming years off level weights. 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 4. Breeding Irish Bred: 4-6-51 French Bred: 3-8-37 British Bred: 2-4-33 German Bred: 1-3-10 Other: 0-0-7 Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side, though Irish and French breds have taken the last 5 renewals. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners posted highest chase RPR on last completed start 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 on all completed chase runs 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases 9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start) Other Races Craddockstown Novice Chase winner (Realt Dubh): 101 (2-0-3) Bord Na Mona Novice Chase winner (Realt Dubh): 1U6691 (2-0-6) Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 23U126 (1-3-6) November Novice Chase winner (Ghizao): U21FF26F (1-2-8) Panoramic Beginners Chase winner (Noble Prince): 41 (1-0-2) Dipper Novice Chase winner: 7510 (1-0-4) Halloween Trophy winner (Ghizao): 3263 (0-3-4) William Hill Novice Chase winner (Nadiya De La Vega): 24P4 (0-1-4) Irish Arkle winner (Realt Dubh): F620640 (0-1-7) 2 of 10 winners ran in the November Novice Chase, finishing 12 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Arkle, finishing F2 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Bord Na Mona Nov Chase, finishing 11 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Craddockstown, finishing 11 In the past 10 years 2 horses have won both the Craddockstown and Bord Na Mona (Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe) and both have gone on to win this. Realt Dubh has won both this season. Trainers Pipe yard (2-1-8) and Alan King (2-0-4) have each been responsible for 2 winners since 2000. Paul Nicholls (1-3-17) trained the winner in 2003 but since then his 11 runners have produced no winners and just 2 places. Nicky Henderson (1-2-7) has gained a win & 2 places from 7 runners. Phillip Hobbs (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame. Irish trained runners (3-2-39) have an average record in the race, producing 3 winners from approximately 28% of the total runners, though they been responsible for the past 2 winners. The two biggest Irish trainers Willie Mullins (0-0-7) and Noel Meade (0-0-4) have failed to find a place from 11 combined runners in the past 10 renewals. Price 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting All 10 winners went off at single figure odds, so clearly market principals are heavily favoured, but it hasn't been a good race for the favourite. Favourites (1-4-10) have taken just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 7.75. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 7 or 8 · Irish or French bred · Run in 1 to 5 chases & never finished out of the first 2 · Won last time and posted their highest RPR · Won a grade 1 or 2 chase · Officially rated 140 or higher over hurdles · Course winner (or having first start here) · Trained by King, Pipe, Henderson or in Ireland · In the first 5 in the betting, no bigger than 9/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Can't understand how Medermit isn't clear favourite for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Diamond. With regards to your hurdling stat. Is it the highest hurdling rating at any point of their hurdling career, before going chasing ?....or is it the horse with the highest rating on their final hurdle race before going chasing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase The reason i was asking is that i think Medermit is the highest rated hurdler going in to the Arkle using his carrer high hurdle mark. Although i think Starluck maybe be the highest rated hurdler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Hi goldi, i've been away for a while, under pressure big time at work, etc. You'd need to look back, i'm sure it was highest rating achieved that i'd uncovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Looking at Ganjamans stat above where he mentions races and winners - I note Realt Dubh gets 3 mentions and Ghizao 2 Finians Rainbow is 8 yo - Sizing Europe won last year as an 8yo but a lot of people point out that it was a poor Arkle even though Sizing and Somersby came out of it well. Usually this race goes to a younger horse - Sizing did have the requisite 3 1's agains his form which showed he had gained good chase experience.And Finians does have that but can an 8yo win again ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase I find that people are too quick to label races with negative jibes. In my relatively short time watching racing compared to others, i find that you can never really know how weak or strong a race is until heindsight is applied some time after the race. Next season it's possible that this Arkle could look like a decent renewal. I think Realt Dubh along with other Irish horses have been written off too quickly. Let's gave them better ground and see what happens. With regards Ghizao - i'm sure this was one horse Nichols 'wouldn't swap with anything else' as stated on a stable tour. Now all the vibes are that they would quite happily swap him. He never helps matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
london punter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase I agree with you goldy i took 25s before the irish arkle on Realt Dubh , hes tough and travels in his races , I feel he will take some beating and is a huge price still at 9s with WH , Jessies Dream for the RSA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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