Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase

[BillyHills]

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[TAPK]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase I believe even professional handicappers occassionaly get it wrong and for me an example of this would be Alan Kings OH CRICK. A decent novice hurdler who always looked like a chaser, progressed into just that culminating in winning this very race 2 yrs ago,albeit off a mark of 130 and carrying a mere 10-00lb,he confirmed his progression at Aintree when winning the Class 1 John Smith handicap off a revised mark of 139 the same season,few horses win at both Cheltenham and Aintree festivals in the same year. Oh Crick hasn"t won since and yet continued to rise in the ratings,up to an all time high of 160, a rating totally unwarranted.Thankfully he has now come down the ratings just as quickly as he went up them and he now runs off a mark of 145 and is just beginning to show a bit of form,he wont get back down to his last winning mark before the festival but i believe the horse is a geniune 140 chaser but will give him a big chance of a repeat victory off his current mark and have supported him to do so at 16/1.

[Needle Nose Ned]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase Anyone (ganjaman) got the stats for this race please?

[Rondetto]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase Mad Max wins this how's that for stats lol

[Needle Nose Ned]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase

Mad Max wins this how's that for stats lol

Very good, but seriously anyone got the stats for this?

[mallyh]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase hi just copied this stat For all bar one of the last ten winners to fall into the tight ratings band of 129-134 is unquestionably one of the strongest official-ratings statistics of the entire season, let alone the Festival, and up popped that old rogue Pigeon Island off 129 from one of just six qualifiers on this count last season to continue that sequence. I will leave you to decide if you believe the continued success of 129-134 rated horses is a coincidence or not whilst also throwing in such minor details that they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. As far as weight carried is concerned, horses carrying over 11st are 0-46 since future Champion Chase winner Edredon Bleu ran them ragged in 1998 when McCoy fired him at every fence.

As far as weight carried is concerned, horses carrying over 11st are 0-46 since future Champion Chase winner Edredon Bleu ran them ragged in 1998 when McCoy fired him at every fence.

The official race distance of the Grand Annual is 2m½f and given the ferocity of gallop at which is contest is invariably run, the maximum field and the uphill finish, our selection better not just stay every single yard of it but at least a further quarter-mile to boot, so it is not surprising that 12 of the last 14 winners had won over 2m2f+. Novices have also fared very strongly with last year’s winner being the eleventh in the last 29 runnings and being on an in-form horse also looks a must as only six of the last 40 winners did not finish in the frame last time out and two of those fell. Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls lead the home defence in more recent times but the Irish have plundered four of the last 11 runnings so we have to seriously consider their entries. With regards to the last six British-trained winners, all six had won at Cheltenham before and also watch out for a sneaky little run over hurdles as a final prep which is how connections of four of the last 11 winners approached this race. Henderson’s Tanks For That could be the main player for horses to limber up over timber last time out. Finally, don’t stray too far away from the leading fancies as all but six of the last 36 winners could be found starting at no bigger than 10/1.

[mallyh]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase all 13 winners returned 20/1 or shorter weight 10st to 10st 11lb 9/9 course/distance winner 6/9 ran in a graded race 9/9 2 wins or less over fences 7/9

[ganjaman]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL STEEPLE CHASE TRENDS 2011 The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M ½F, and is the closing race of the Festival. It has not been a bad race for punters recently with the majority of the winners coming from the top of the market. Hopefully by this stage we’ll be playing up winnings instead of chasing losses. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 1-3-6 6yo: 1-4-26 7yo: 3-5-36 8yo: 1-10-50 9yo: 3-5-37 10yo: 1-2-29 11yo+: 0-1-16 The ages of winners have been fairly evenly spread out. 5 year olds have done well in this though from very few runners, 4 of 6 have made the frame. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 0-12-57 Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 10-18-143 10 of 10 winners carried 10-11 or less and so are heavily favoured. Top Weight: 32PU9FF4P2 (0-4-10) Official Ratings Horses rated 135 or higher: 1-17-104 Horses rated 134 or lower: 9-13-96 If you exclude horses running from 5lbs or more out of the handicap then the record of horses officially rated 134 or lower is 9-11-69. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on their last completed chase start (exception unplaced in a grade 2) 9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August 9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days 10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 12 chases 10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (4 were running in their first h'cap chase) 7 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 3 others had won just 1) 7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade chase (2 of 3 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 others had been placed) 7 of 10 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival Trainers Paul Nicholls (2-3-19) and Arthur Moore (2-1-7) have both won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race. Nicky Henderson (1-5-19) won the race in 2006 and trained the runner-up in 2008 & 2010 and the third in 2009. The race is named after his father and he will certainly want to win it again. Alan King (1-1-3) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) have supplied the last 2 winners of this. Henry Daly (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000. Philip Hobbs (0-2-10) has gained 2 places from 10 runners. Irish trained runners (3-4-35) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings of the race from 17.5% of the total runners. 3 of the last 4 Irish trained winners had run in a hurdle on their previous start. Price 7 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below. 8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting, Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with 19 of 40 places being filled by horses priced 10/1 or lower. Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of this race, giving a level stakes profit of 5.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 9 or younger (5yos especially) · Carrying 10-11 or less · Officially rated 134 or lower · Finished in first 3 in last completed chase · Had last outing in the past 45 days · Run in 12 or fewer chases · Run in 7 or fewer handicap chase and won no more than 1 · Won or placed at Cheltenham · Trained by P Nicholls, A Moore, A King or N Henderson · Trained in Ireland · Priced 8/1 or below

[Needle Nose Ned]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase Many thanks ganjaman, can you tell me what sites you use to put these stats together? assume racingpost and sportlinglife, raceform update too maybe (don't know much about it but people seem to think it's v good)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase I'msingingtheblues 1pt win - 14/1 (antepost) Won't be backing anything else here. Very tough race and difficult to find an angle. My selection will either run well or bomb out, so won't be saving on the place market at all. Traveled like a dream off higher mark over 2m5f here and it was soft ground that day. He will love the trip and ground today and could easily win it imo. Just don't know what to expect from him.

[bowles10]

Re: Fri 5.15 : Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase anyone check the form of the last winner, some very decengt form and at Chelts, looking back i didnt look at it due to the weight but the form was good, started shorter price than Kalahari King just over a year ago !!!