The Unbeatable System

[Aidymac]

I have been paper-trading a system and it works a treat.. Basically i get the winners of last years Premier League, La Liga, French League, Serie A and Bundesliga. Using these teams, everytime each team wins, i make £10 roughly each time.. The key to this is only backing these teams when they are playing at home and the lowest odds i use is 1/5, anything below that is not worth doing.... So the teams i have used are Chelsea, Barcelona, Inter Milan, Marseille and Bayern Munich.. I want to paper-trade until next season just to make sure i havent been lucky and that it really does work.. I will now show you how to make the money. If and when a bet loses, this is taken into account for their next home game and will be re-accounted for. Up and coming fixtures this week: 19th of December Chelsea v Manchester United £9 Chelsea win @ 6/5 (Boylesports) 19th of December Marseille v Lyon £8 Marseille win @ 5/4 (Stanjames)

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System Just want to give more of an insight into my thread... This is a list of all Chelseas home games last year, all competitions in sequence.. 1. v Hull - WON 2-1 2. v Burnley - WON 3-0 3. v Porto - WON 1-0 4. v Spurs - WON 3-0 5. v QPR - WON 1-0 6. v Liverpool - WON 2-0 7. v Athletico Madrid - WON 4-0 8. v Blackburn - WON 5-0 9. v Bolton - WON 4-0 10. v Man Utd - WON 1-0 11. v Wolverhampton - WON 4-0 12. v Apoel Nicosia - DREW 2-2 13. v Everton - DREW 3-3 14. v Portsmouth - WON 2-1 15. v Fulham - WON 2-1 16. v Watford - WON 5-0 17. v Sunderland - WON 7-2 18. v Birmingham - WON 3-0 19. v Arsenal - WON 2-0 20. v Cardiff - WON 4-1 21. v Man City - LOST 2-4 22. v Stoke - WON 2-0 23. v West Ham - WON 4-1 24. v Inter Milan - LOST 0-1 25. v Aston Villa - WON 7-1 26. v Bolton - WON 1-0 27. v Stoke - WON 7-0 28. v Wigan - WON 8-0 So as you can see last year Chelsea only failed in 4 home games all season, they won 24 home games and if lets say 15 of them, which im sure there were at least were at odds of 1/5 or greater, that would ensure a guaranteed profit of at least £150 for the season... Average that out among the 5 different leagues and i would be looking to make £150 on each team at least which would give me a season total of £750!! In saying that, every season is different... But i would be looking to make a few hundred pounds a season, the top teams dont ever really go through a bad long losing home run, maybe 3/4 games at the very very most so in my eyes this is a slow but profitable system.. My aim is to begin next season using the current stake and if it turns out to be successful doubling my stake each season after.. We can dream :lol

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System Just to have a look at Chelsea's home form this year.. Lets bear in mind they are having a bad time of it of late, so the last few results is really as bad as it gets, which truth be told is not all that bad because it can be worked around and profit will always come at the end of the day.. 1. v West Brom - WON 6-0 2. v Stoke - WON 2-0 3. v Blackpool - WON 4-0 4. v Newcastle - LOST 3-4 5. v Marseille - WON 2-0 6. v Arsenal - WON 2-0 7. v Wolverhampton - WON 2-0 8. v Spartak Moscow - WON 4-1 9. v Fulham - WON 1-0 10. v Sunderland - LOST 0-3 11. v Zilina - WON 2-1 12. v Everton - DREW 1-1 So even though Chelsea have been having a rough few weeks, their home form has not been that bad.. Apart from West Brom, Blackpool and Wolver i would imagine the rest of the games were 1/5 or greater.. That would put my current profit on Chelsea so far this season at £50

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System Looking at Marseilles home form this season the results have been as follows... 1. v Caen - LOST 1-2 2. v Lorient - WON 2-0 3. v Monaco - DREW 2-2 4. v Spartak Moscow - LOST 0-1 5. v Sochaux - WON 2-1 6. v Nancy - WON 1-0 7. v Zilina - WON 1-0 8. v Monaco - WON 2-1 9. v Lens - DREW 1-1 10. v Montpellier - WON 4-0 11. v Rennes - DREW 0-0 12. v Chelsea - WON 1-0 This is Marseilles current seasons home form, not great to say the least BUT as bad as it is i would still be up £70 from them this season had i not been paper-trading.. Not bad eh?

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System Onto Barcelona's current campaign.. Home results thus far: 1. v Sevilla - WON 4-0 2. v Hercules - LOST 0-2 3. v Panathinaikos - WON 5-1 4. v Gijon - WON 1-0 5. v Mallorca - DREW 1-1 6. v Valencia - WON 2-1 7. v Kobenhavn - WON 2-0 8. v Sevilla - WON 5-0 9. v Cueta - WON 5-1 10. v Villareal - WON 3-1 11. v Real Madrid - WON 5-0 12. v Rubin Kazan - WON 2-0 13. v Real Sociedad - WON 5-0 So Barcelona have a very good home record.. However they quite often are odds lower than 1/5... On my papertrading thus far i have worked out i would be up £60 so far this season..

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System Inter Milans home form this season: 1. v Roma - WON 3-1 2. v Athletico Madrid - LOST 0-2 3. v Udinese - WON 2-1 4. v Bari - WON 4-0 5. v Werder Bremen - WON 4-0 6. v Juventus - DREW 0-0 7. v Spurs - WON 4-3 8. v Sampdoria - DREW 1-1 9. v Brescia - DREW 1-1 10. v AC Milan - LOST 0-1 11. v Twente - WON 1-0 12. v Parma - WON 5-2 So here they did not win 3 games in a row.... Nonetheless i would still be up at least £60 this season with my formet.... !

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System And lastly Bayern Munich this year thus far... 1. v Schalke - WON 2-0 2. v Wolfsburg - WON 2-1 3. v Werder Bremen - DREW 0-0 4. v Roma - WON 2-0 5. v Koln - DREW 0-0 6. v Mainz - LOST 1-2 7. v Hannover - WON 3-0 8. v CFR Cluj - WON 3-2 9. v Werder Bremen - WON 2-1 10. v Freiburg - WON 4-2 11. v Nurnberg - WON 3-0 12. v Frankfurt - WON 4-1 13. v Basel - WON 3-0 14. v St. Pauil - WON 3-0 Bayern are in very good home form of late, winning their last 8 home games..After taking the too short odds games out of it, i would be up roughly £100 this season thus far on Bayern

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System So the summary is that so far this season i would be up £340 on the current 5 teams i have demonstrated... This is just by aiming to win £10 per game... For a game that is a loser, the following game for that team my aim is to win £20 on that bet and if that loses i aim to win £30 on the following bet until they win at home.. If you are a big-time punter and aim to win £100 per game, you would now be up £3,400 and we are only 4 months into the season.. Hope i make sense, if anybody wants to ask or criticise, please feel free. :cheers

[Tyler]

Re: The Unbeatable System Fairly simple but it actually seems to work out pretty well. I am liking this so far. Just out of interest is there a reason that 1/5 is your floor or is it just a random criteria?

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System

Fairly simple but it actually seems to work out pretty well. I am liking this so far. Just out of interest is there a reason that 1/5 is your floor or is it just a random criteria?

1/5 is my floor because i dont want to be sweating... I dont want to be risking £120 on a 1/12 chance only for it to not come up... These big teams win at home very regularly so really there is not that much of a risk in my eyes.. It is slow profit but if i did make £750 in Season 1, i would then aim to win £1,500 in Season 2 by upping my win per game to £20 and Season 3 up to £40 with a total of £3k for Season 3... This is my target, i have been paper-trading this since the start of the season and i have checked previous years and i actually cant find a fault in the system.. The only way i can lose is if one of the teams went on a 8-10 home game losing streak which is really very highly unlikely

[Tyler]

Re: The Unbeatable System I hear you that's fair enough. I also noticed you only back the Champions in each respective League. Man United have been fairly formiddable at home this year and similarly Real Madrid have been equally as impressive at home (and that will more than likely continue especially with Mourinho's managerial home record). They could also go a long way in making you a packet. Ever thought about doing the runners-up too?

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System

I hear you that's fair enough. I also noticed you only back the Champions in each respective League. Man United have been fairly formiddable at home this year and similarly Real Madrid have been equally as impressive at home (and that will more than likely continue especially with Mourinho's managerial home record). They could also go a long way in making you a packet. Ever thought about doing the runners-up too?

Yes well this is only still a paper-trade, of course this can be done with any team that has a formidable home record... If a team did hit a bad run at home at short-odds it could end this dream of mine.. Lets say Chelsea are 1/5 and they draw, well that is £50 gone.. So the following game i have to make £60 profit.. If the odds are 1/3 i have to bet £180... If they dont win, then i have to find £240 from my next bet and lets say they are 1/2, i then have to bet £480... This is the one thing i am worried about and why i want to paper-trade for a good while

[Tyler]

Re: The Unbeatable System Very true. I wish you the best of luck, I will be following this closely :ok

[Rick121212]

Re: The Unbeatable System This looks pretty solid but I don't like systems that I can't find holes in. Also isn't there an issue with this staking strategy? Sure, I've heard something before.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: The Unbeatable System Well basically this is just another form of martingale. You get lured into comfort by the regularly wins, but if this is your only criteria for selecting matches, at some point you will bust your bank. Of course, any martingale system will initially provide some profit, but it cannot last long-term. The many small wins won't make up for the large losses that will eventually occur. If the odds of your selections does not contain value, you can't be a winner long-term, simple as that.

[Rick121212]

Re: The Unbeatable System I knew it was the martingale but forgot the name of it. Yeah that is true, however, with using title contenders it is more convincing than other techniques with this system because they win that much more often, but as soon as one of them screws up by 5 or 6 games you could be in deep trouble.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: The Unbeatable System Well it's a good thing that your papertrialing, no harm done then huh? :) The thing is, that because they are favs, it is reflected in the odds. And with these very low odds the stakes go sky-high after a few losses.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System

Well it's a good thing that your papertrialing, no harm done then huh? :) The thing is, that because they are favs, it is reflected in the odds. And with these very low odds the stakes go sky-high after a few losses.

Yes you are right, there is a chance that a bad run could happen and that i could go bust... Would it help if i cut my floor price to 1/2 and did it with the top 3 teams in the PL, La Liga and Serie A ?????

[Hooloovoo]

Re: The Unbeatable System It won't help cutting your floor price and it won't help betting only on particular teams. Because it is based on loss recovery, instead of value, you can't win longterm. It is much more likely that each of your bets have a negative expectation, so in reality, you lose a little each time you bet. The good thing is, that when your paper bank has been busted, you have learned something valuable, and you have not lost any money. Maybe harsh but honest, would hate to come back here in 4 months and see that you threw away £100 to win £5.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System

It won't help cutting your floor price and it won't help betting only on particular teams. Because it is based on loss recovery, instead of value, you can't win longterm. It is much more likely that each of your bets have a negative expectation, so in reality, you lose a little each time you bet. The good thing is, that when your paper bank has been busted, you have learned something valuable, and you have not lost any money. Maybe harsh but honest, would hate to come back here in 4 months and see that you threw away £100 to win £5.

Thanks, ok i wont go ahead with it.,.. Thanks for the advise

[froment]

Re: The Unbeatable System Hi, Aidymac; I saw your thread this morning, it caught my attention for its distinctive title, as I don't believe there is such a thing like unbeatable system. I just can fully agree with Hooloovoo, not only because of all the arguments he said, but because after very first glance at your stats I was suspicious of profits you declared - 60 to 100 units after dozen of matches at such a low odds was unbelievable. So, I have just found time to collect odds for matches of three of your teams, Bayern, Inter and Marseille, and to check your profits; my calculation differs from your one, and shows that only on Bayern you would have profit, but only 33 units, not 100 units, while Inter and Marseille would cost you more than that. I suspect that you made a mistake with losing matches, counting loss of 10 units; though, in those cases, you lose more, depending on the odds! I hope I understood well your staking strategy: you initially aim for profit of 10 units in each match; after losing match, you increase your desired profit for another 10 units, and after win, you go back to 10 units? (Edit: I mean, I'm confused between posts #8 and #12; tables below show staking as explained in #8, but post #12 is a bit different... :unsure ) I took odds from Bet Explorer, which gives best available odds; that means, in reality you would have to have accounts with dozens of bookies, or to accept lower odds, which only worsens this picture...

BAYERN	Odds	Desired profit	Stake	Won?	Actual Profit
1. v Schalke - WON 2-0	n/a	10.00	n/a	Y	10.00
2. v Wolfsburg - WON 2-1	1.50	10.00	20.00	Y	10.00
3. v Werder Bremen - DREW 0-0	1.51	10.00	19.61	N	-19.61
4. v Roma - WON 2-0	1.63	20.00	31.75	Y	20.00
5. v Koln - DREW 0-0	1.23	10.00	43.48	N	-43.48
6. v Mainz - LOST 1-2	1.46	20.00	43.48	N	-43.48
7. v Hannover - WON 3-0	1.39	30.00	76.92	Y	30.00
8. v CFR Cluj - WON 3-2	1.25	10.00	40.00	Y	10.00
9. v Werder Bremen - WON 2-1	1.73	10.00	13.70	Y	10.00
10. v Freiburg - WON 4-2	1.29	10.00	34.48	Y	10.00
11. v Nurnberg - WON 3-0	1.34	10.00	29.41	Y	10.00
12. v Frankfurt - WON 4-1	1.33	10.00	30.30	Y	10.00
13. v Basel - WON 3-0	1.53	10.00	18.87	Y	10.00
14. v St. Pauil - WON 3-0	1.20	10.00	50.00	Y	10.00
TOTAL PROFIT					33.44

INTER MILAN	Odds	Desired profit	Stake	Won?	Actual Profit
1. v Roma - WON 3-1	n/a	10.00	n/a	Y	10.00
2. v Athletico Madrid - LOST 0-2	1.93	10.00	10.75	N	-10.75
3. v Udinese - WON 2-1	1.39	20.00	51.28	Y	20.00
4. v Bari - WON 4-0	1.41	10.00	24.39	Y	10.00
5. v Werder Bremen - WON 4-0	1.55	10.00	18.18	Y	10.00
6. v Juventus - DREW 0-0	1.78	10.00	12.82	N	-12.82
7. v Spurs - WON 4-3	1.64	20.00	31.25	Y	20.00
8. v Sampdoria - DREW 1-1	1.51	10.00	19.61	N	-19.61
9. v Brescia - DREW 1-1	1.26	20.00	76.92	N	-76.92
10. v AC Milan - LOST 0-1	2.48	30.00	20.27	N	-20.27
11. v Twente - WON 1-0	1.62	40.00	64.52	Y	40.00
12. v Parma - WON 5-2	1.61	10.00	16.39	Y	10.00
TOTAL PROFIT					-20.37

MARSEILLE	Odds	Desired profit	Stake	Won?	Actual Profit
1. v Caen - LOST 1-2	1.30	10.00	33.33	N	-33.33
2. v Lorient - WON 2-0	1.55	20.00	36.36	Y	20.00
3. v Monaco - DREW 2-2	1.64	10.00	15.63	N	-15.63
4. v Spartak Moscow - LOST 0-1	1.62	20.00	32.26	N	-32.26
5. v Sochaux - WON 2-1	1.41	30.00	73.17	Y	30.00
6. v Nancy - WON 1-0	1.42	10.00	23.81	Y	10.00
7. v Zilina - WON 1-0	1.26	10.00	38.46	Y	10.00
8. v Monaco - WON 2-1	1.63	10.00	15.87	Y	10.00
9. v Lens - DREW 1-1	1.40	10.00	25.00	N	-25.00
10. v Montpellier - WON 4-0	1.62	20.00	32.26	Y	20.00
11. v Rennes - DREW 0-0	1.54	10.00	18.52	N	-18.52
12. v Chelsea - WON 1-0	2.63	20.00	12.27	Y	20.00
TOTAL PROFIT					-4.73

Pay attention to match Inter vs. Brescia: despite very low odds, just above limit of your criteria, it failed, and ate more than half of entire profit! And it was second defeat in row; just imagine if it was third, so you would have targeted 30 units profit; that would have meant stake of 115 units, while profit on all seven winning matches was 120 units; that's one of the flaws of this system - a single loss wipes out entire profit! And it's good example why you can often hear that if system isn't profitable at level stakes, no other staking system can turn it into profitable one! Moreover, there are two more tricks: I couldn't find matches Inter vs. Roma (3-1) and Bayern vs. Schalke (2-0), they are nowhere to be found in mutual matches of these teams this season: http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/italy/italian-serie-a-2010-2011/mutual.php?idHome=431087&idAway=431078&whereHome=0 http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/germany/german-bundesliga-2010-2011/mutual.php?idHome=431143&idAway=431160&whereHome=0 Doesn't matter that URL's above contain words "Serie A" and "Bundesliga" - it's just window where I searched from, but matches from all competitions are included in H2H, you can check. Though, both matches were won, and first on the list, so I included them in above tables; but if they really didn't exist, that means another 20 units lower profit (I just can't believe Bet Explorer would miss matches of these top teams!). You know, beside the title and huge profits shown, this system is distinctive by another property: simplicity! No researches, no analyses - just take defending champion, and after dozen of matches, you'll have 60 or 100 quids in your pocket; if it was so simple and easy, you think it would wait for you all these years?! If something is too good to be true, it probably is... ;) Anyway, I like your approach of paper trial, that's very good habit! :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: The Unbeatable System I am appreciative and impressed by what you have just done for me, i made a big error, it is a very beatable system and it is back to the drawing board for me.. Sincere apologies for naming the thread as such, makes me look daft :spank Sorry to those who nearly fell for it