Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches

[b10111]

14:00			Italy (13/18)	v (18)	Fiji (6/5)
14:30			England (8/15)	v (20)	South Africa (15/8)
14:30			Scotland (2/5)	v (22)	Samoa (5/2)
17:15		Wales (12)	v (50)	New Zealand (1/25)
19:45		France (1)	v (19)	Australia (20/19)
14:30			Ireland (2/5)	v (22)	Argentina (5/2)

England (8/15) v (20)South Africa (15/8)

Let me set the record clear, even without a look at the odds I had a slight lean towards the Springboks bagging this one.Okay, the odds make me even more eager, but this is the 1st weekend where there are some tight games offering decent odds.Quite a few surprises last week, and decent handicaps if you were quick on them like Fiji, Scotland and argentina,but value lies in the out rights this weekend I cant look further than the England match.

Yes, we all know about the English scrum this winter and they have been great, but 2 things remain, the Boks are a better rugby team than England, that wont change and Engkland can only get the better of teams like Australia ans SA when these opposition teams play lower ranked opposition at about the same time.

The boks will do their homework. They will have seen the deficiencies in the English game against the Boks, and will not give anything away.The boks defence hasn’t been great but they have guys who can still match the English in central positions and it oinl;y takes a lucky try and a few penalties to win the game.

Im still yet to see anything special from the English and they always fail to perform under pressure.Im happy to take the boks.

High stakes on the +4 handicap and small stakes on the putright.

Italy (13/18) v (18) Fiji (6/5)

Another tasty encounter that could go either away. Lets make it clear, the draw by the islanders against wales was deserved and they have shown their world cup form on tour.The Italians have been dreadful and although you expect them to step up for this game with home advantage the thing about rugby is at time your game just doesn’t click like light switch.

I fancy the Fijians can take this one, and unless I hear of some elaborate team news by Nick mallet, I think the Fijians should be able to cover the handicap.

Some leans I am yet to consider fully are Samoa to cover the handicap fairly well against ScotlandAustralia to beat France(have no idea why France are favourites) and Argentina to cover the handicap aginst Ireland

Markets available at William Hill

[profitius]

Re: Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches I disagree about England Boks match. The way both teams are playing it would be a surprise if England lost this match. England are much improved and SA have gotten worse. The Boks will be up for this one but they won't dominate England up front and England look a more dangerous attacking team. Not to mention Englands confidence is sky high and the Boks' is very low. The lineouts could be the Boks' main weapon but I can't see them dominating enough there to change the game. Argentina +8pts against Ireland looks generous too. They'll make it a dog fight and keep it tight. NZ will also cover the 19pts handicap if they wanted to. Seeing how up for it they are is the main thing here.

[b10111]

Re: Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches

I disagree about England Boks match. The way both teams are playing it would be a surprise if England lost this match. England are much improved and SA have gotten worse. The Boks will be up for this one but they won't dominate England up front and England look a more dangerous attacking team. Not to mention Englands confidence is sky high and the Boks' is very low. The lineouts could be the Boks' main weapon but I can't see them dominating enough there to change the game. Argentina +8pts against Ireland looks generous too. They'll make it a dog fight and keep it tight. NZ will also cover the 19pts handicap if they wanted to. Seeing how up for it they are is the main thing here.

I like New Zealand to cover the handicap as-well, they have done it 3 times on tour already but I’m wondering if they can do it for a fourth time in a row. The one thing that has made New Zealand maintain their level is the competition for places and their loss to Australia in Hong Kong. They don’t seem to let up so I might go for them again tomorrow.

The Argentineans will scrap it out and their double loss to Scotland in the summer is the reason why the line is that high. They have made life difficult for most teams, and I don’t expect the Scots to maintain their level after the win against the Boks. There will be too much pressure on them and they might lose focus wouldn’t be surprised if they lost the match actually.

About England against the Boks, Im not looking at form on this bet, its all about pressure and which team reacts best toi it.England aren’t good as favourites as they can deal with pressure, it’s the same with the cricket team in Australia or the footie team at the world cup. When the favorite label is put on them, and then something goes wrong in the 1^st few minutes of the match, they collapse like a deck of cards.

The boks have had some good starts on tour, and a few quick penalties by Morne Steyn at the beginning of the match ands the Eng game will fall apart.

Think about it, the boks are a better rugby unit thatn England, even in poor form how do you justify odds of 1.5 for Eng and 2.8 for the Boks?It makes no sense, the outcome of the match is far from certain and value lies with the Boks. odds are rising because the British public are throwing money on England and the bookies would just love the Boks to pull a shockie

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches I am glad the Rugby forum on Pl is beginning to grow, I am a massive Rugby fan and I appreciate everybody who takes the time to post their views, especially you b10111, as I have respected your views each time that you have posted. But I am afraid I am going to have to disagree with you massively on this one! This is not a good Bokka side and in reality it is second string at best and they have at least five players who would normally be on the bench! England on the other hand are arguably at full strength and playing with fire in their bellies. England are an improving side, with the likes of Hartley, Lawes, Cole, Youngs, Ashton & Foden all now staking their claim on the world stage and making England a team for the future. Yes, we should not get carried away but who is the last team to beat Australia twice? Only the All Blacks! I live & work very close to Twickenham and we never suffer from the cold in this area but there is currently a tent covering the pitch at Twickenham so they can play tomorrow, will the Bokka fancy a game in sub zero temps when it is currently the start of summer back home? Yes, they are pro's but they lost last week to Dan Parks in a cold Edinburgh and Scotland do not beat many these days, due to lack of try scoring yet they still beat the Bokka! It will be close to begin with but England are on the up and the Bokka are here after losing their softest game on tour, I know who I fancy and I am the biggest pessimist I know!

[profitius]

Re: Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches You were 100% right about England b1011. They couldn't handle it when the pressure came on. How they only lost by 10pts is a miracle. I know the Boks' backs are not good but their forwards dominated. I didn't see that one coming.

[b10111]

Re: Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches Wow, what a final weekend of Test rugby. I just clawed back all my losses from the last 3 months from all sporting codes especially as arsenal who seem to lose in the most bizarre circumstances. I couldn’t quite settle on any Australian handicap as the best I could get was +5.5 so I decided to go for the -3.5 since I was convinced if they win they would win but a margin. Thats how the wallabies play, but I didn’t expect a bashing. France deserved everything they got plus more, they have been dreadful lately and will be worrying about their world cup chances in dry New Zealand conditions. The +4.5 Samoan handicap came good and my only loss was New Zealand who I suspected would not go past the handicap for the 4^th time in a row. I’m sorry Nigel I haven’t been around to make Rugby postings, I took quite a beating in footie 2 months ago so I had to lay low for a while as I was now approaching debt levels. This is my 1^st full year of gambling and its been a learning curve. I actually work as a consultant but I plan to quit and go into full time gambling and stock investment next year. Its been quite a ride and although I bet across all codes I find rugby a lot as its easier. I have been finalising my gambling strategy throughout the year as I have realised I bet in two ways, there is a gut bet, where you make calls early in the week before research and then researched bets after you know match conditions and team news. I have realised bets can go two ways and public perception can deceive people. The main reason people swayed towards the England bet was the cold weather, poor form of the Boks and perception that the Bok substitute players aren’t good enough little do they realise the Boks team is only second to NewZealand in terms of depth. The worst thing you can do is make a bet based on a fans perspective. Never do that, all ways look for Neutrals. I used to trawl the bbc blog section for views before the match and I lost heavily that way, now I only listen to neutrals. The honest truth is in Rugby, The All Blacks are gods, then you have a second tier of Rugby group of wallabies and Boks, Then England and France then the rest. Simples! Nigel, I hope next season we can divide each other into groups to specialise on different rugby leagues and take the bookies to the cleaners. Now if only Argentina can pull a shockie today then it would be a perfect weekend!:tongue2

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Northern Hemisphere International Rugby Matches Well done b10111, excellent call! :clap Don't write of England just yet though, inexperience is what cost them on Saturday and a lot of the reporting on the game was not justified. I agree with you that you need to look at the neutral's take on sides and the English press have been overly harsh on the England performance! The Bokka play a brand of Rugby unlike any of the other nations, England tried to beat them physically and no one can do this. You need to play the Boks like a boxer with no knock out punch, bob and weave and win on points. England couldn't find the key to unlock the Bokka defence and reverted to their old slow & predictable huffing & puffing. Also England didn't see a great deal of the ball! b10111, I'm glad to see you think that there is a market to be had in Rugby and I agree, there are some attractive odds in Rugby and I believe there is a few quid to be made!