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Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

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Bagzi

Bagzi

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

Chances de cada time (Chances of each team)

Time (Team)

Chegar à Final (Reach the Final)

Conquistar o Título (Win the Title)

Palmeiras 54.0 % 35.2 %
Goiás 46.0 % 28.9 %
Independiente 63.4 % 26.9 %
LDU Quito 36.6 % 9.0 %
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Alex_B

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

Chances de cada time

(Chances of each team)

Time

(Team)

Chegar à Final

(Reach the Final)

Conquistar o Título

(Win the Title)

Palmeiras54.0 %35.2 %
Goiás46.0 %28.9 %
Independiente63.4 %26.9 %
LDU Quito36.6 %9.0 %
Hey, partner!! :cheers Where do you get these stats from?
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nicko

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

I thought so...next question will be: reasoning? For instance, I don't see LDU with only 9% chances of winning Copa Sulamericana...
My thoughts too. From what I have seen here, and I saw many in the last 2 years, at the moment I would give 35% to Palmeiras and LDU each, maybe even with a slight advantage to LDU Quito, and split... the remaining 30% between Goias and Independiente... The key word here is 2 legs. LDU always manage to get a good result there that helps them in the second leg. Or the other way around when they are away in the first leg, like last time here in Argentina - got a lovely 0-0 away and then 1-0 at home. This result though doesn't say it all - for 90 mins LDU were going forward, there wasn't a moment when this aggressive kind of play would allow the guests to go in attack with more people. Skill, tactical culture, speed - they got it all....The football in Equador is underestimated often, but all you have to do is look at the last 3 periods for World Cup qualification - some amazing results there and often a bit of luck needed. I know Bagzi does his Brazil Ratings well, but something here is not right. The Cup holders with 9% only is against my experience...On 2 legs LDU can qualify against any of the remaining 3 teams in 3 out of 5 times. Just my thoughts though... GL
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nicko

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 I love Goias, even this season with that team made almost fully of semi-rejected or clearly underestimated legioneers. They blow hot and cold, and last year with a bit of luck could have even gone for a fight for top 4 at a certain moment. No matter how good their win over Avai was here this season though,there won't be a moment till the end when the players would feel relaxed on either front - continental success is great, but the danger of relegation is massive. These guys will have a mountain to climb to manage physically in both competitions... Palmeiras - I see them at the final, beating Goias on the way for one reason - their objective is clear - Copa Sudamericana. The message was sent out by Big Phil long time ago - the Cup is what he wants. I would love to see Goias knocking them out too, but the logic says different. Still, it is 11 vs 11, on 2 legs, I imagine a score draw in Goiania, and whatever in the second leg...:hope Independiente - saw them in both legs vs Tolima, and previously vs Defensor. Their approach when away is purely defending with occasional counters ( dangerous enough ) while at home they go wild. Yet in both games they were hosting IMO they could have lost - the games were in spells, with each team having good and bad periods, but fact is in a more open game Independiente are rather vulnerable at the back. Tolima were slightly robbed IMO, while Defensor could have turned the game to 4-3 with a bit of luck. Instead they conceded another one. This team, despite the quality all Argentinian teams have in defensive play can easily be exposed. Even a narrow win by LDU in the first leg means Independiente need to go forward, and Quito should take advantage. Won't touch the Brazilian game but LDU for me on -1AH is a logical choice. bet365 atm offer 1,80 for Home - 1 AH. THE RIGHT BET SHOULD BE LDU - 1,5 AH @ 2,35, but I rather go for safety. Independiente will defend for 90% of the time, and they won't change this even if they are a goal down. Can they score? Of course, but the logic is different... GL

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Bagzi

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 Goias - Palmeiras 00:50CET This is semifinals of Copa Sudamericana so this game could go either way, but my bet goes in Palmeiras favour. Goias will be playing at home but this is not the best momentum for hosts, they are almost relegated from brazilian championship (they need three streight winners in the league to have mathematical chances to stay in serie A next season), it is impossible mission so their minds are all over Copa Sudamericana. Goias had hard game in midweek against Avai and another one in the league v Fluminense (1-1). On the other hand Palmeiras rested almost all first starters and all main players are well prepared for this duel.

It is not secret that coach Scolari is currently only focused on Copa Sudamericana, whose winner will have direct qualification for Copa Libertadores next year. Place in Copa Libertadores is great motivating factor for every side, but as i rate Palmeiras higher then Goias, with better preparation period and well motivated and rested players i can´t see other reasult then to go against Goias tonight. Palmeiras (0) AH @1.93 188bet 5/10

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nicko

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 I expect a very open approach toward the game from Goias, It is another thing will Palmeiras allow such game - they will either manage to ''kill'' the hosts' initial push and take slowly the control over the game, or ( if I am lucky ) become part of a goal fiesta. Main bets are : Goal/Goal @ 1,83 Over 2,5 Goals @ 2,15 Over 11,5 corners @ 1,90 Over 1 Goal FH @ 2,075 ALL ARE WITH 8 UNITS except the first one with 10, ALL BET365 Did also some weird ones, I only need one to come out and pay for my ''experiment''... Goias to score in both halves @ 4,00 - 1,5 units Goias or Plameiras to score a penalty @ 9,00 each - 1 unit Goias or Palmeiras to win from behind, both @ 9,00 - 1 unit I am looking at an exciting game, with the bets above? Yes! :D Had a good night with those friendlies, some late goals increased my profit and confidence, we will see...I am by no means opposing Bagzi in person, I am simply following my guts. With Goias so far that idea was good, ever since the game away to Gremio in the same Cup. Go Goias!

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nicko

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 Rafael Moura is an absolute loner forward, can't expect much. Palmeiras are tight, marking well, with a good balanced zone, and not rushing forward, obviously 0-0 or hopefully 1-0 will be great to them . The way I see it my bets are lost, before HT...

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Bagzi

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

Goias - Palmeiras 00:50CET This is semifinals of Copa Sudamericana so this game could go either way, but my bet goes in Palmeiras favour. Goias will be playing at home but this is not the best momentum for hosts, they are almost relegated from brazilian championship (they need three streight winners in the league to have mathematical chances to stay in serie A next season), it is impossible mission so their minds are all over Copa Sudamericana. Goias had hard game in midweek against Avai and another one in the league v Fluminense (1-1). On the other hand Palmeiras rested almost all first starters and all main players are well prepared for this duel. It is not secret that coach Scolari is currently only focused on Copa Sudamericana, whose winner will have direct qualification for Copa Libertadores next year. Place in Copa Libertadores is great motivating factor for every side, but as i rate Palmeiras higher then Goias, with better preparation period and well motivated and rested players i can´t see other reasult then to go against Goias tonight. Palmeiras (0) AH :clap:clap @1.93 188bet 5/10
FT 0-1 +4.65 u :ok
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bluey

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 I wrote a review but then lost it all so the jist of it was: I am going to do some dutching tonight. 1-0 is 7.4 with Betfair 2-0 is 7 with Betfair £2.57 on 1-0 and £2.43 on 2-0 will give me combined odds of 3.6 and £12.98 profit if either was to come in. Let me know on your thoughts guys

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Bliss_Mkd

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 I want to take LDU QUITO HT/FT odds 2 @ bet365 simply cause of their attacking minded football from the first minute. I also read somewhere that their first goalkeeper Hilario Navarro who suffers from a flu and striker Andres Silveira won't play. On the other hand the only useful bet is LDU QUITO -1.5 handicap odds 2.20 @ bet365. I will wait a bit for other more informed punters to post something. ;)

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Bagzi

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 LDU Qiuto - Intependoente 01:30CET Don´t have time for analysis write up, but my bet is: Over 2.5 goals @1.94 188bet 3/10 Both side manager will use very ofensive line up and tactical sheme.

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Bliss_Mkd

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

LDU Qiuto - Intependoente 01:30CET Don´t have time for analysis write up, but my bet is: Over 2.5 goals @1.94 188bet 3/10 Both side manager will use very ofensive line up and tactical sheme.
Mate I have read the opposite, that Independiente's coach will field defensive squad with 3-5-2 formation. :\
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Bagzi

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

Mate I have read the opposite' date=' that Independiente's coach will field defensive squad with 3-5-2 formation. :\[/quote'] well, according to my experience in south american football, the 3-5-2 sheme that south americans using is much more ofensive then 4-4-2. :ok
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PinPointPrecision

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010 I have to admit I know very little about the Copa Sudamericana but I've decided to take a small punt tonight on Independiente tonight @ 9 with bet365. This is purely a value bet because the average bookie odds are ~7.20 for the away win. I have to admit by the H2H record is not good for Independiente. Also there is a big home advantage associated with LDU Quito's home stadium altitude. For a giggle though I'll let £25 ride on the shock away win against my better judgement. :lol

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Bliss_Mkd

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

I want to take LDU QUITO HT/FT odds 2 @ bet365 simply cause of their attacking minded football from the first minute. I also read somewhere that their first goalkeeper Hilario Navarro who suffers from a flu and striker Andres Silveira won't play. On the other hand the only useful bet is LDU QUITO -1.5 handicap odds 2.20 @ bet365. I will wait a bit for other more informed punters to post something. ;)
One bet won. Other two lost :\
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Bagzi

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Re: Americas » Copa Nissan Sudamericana » 17/18 Nov. 2010

LDU Qiuto - Intependoente 01:30CET Don´t have time for analysis write up, but my bet is: Over 2.5 goals :clap @1.94 188bet 3/10 Both side manager will use very ofensive line up and tactical sheme.
FT 3-2 +2.82 u :cheers
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