Dobbing

[jayalexander]

I make no apology for admitting I know sod all about jump racing, but I have attempted trading for profit before the off in the past, with varying levels of success. This technique -(Double Or Bust)-, however, relies on the in-running price to fall to half that of the BFsp. Dobbing uses speed ratings to calculate the likelihood of a successful trade and I will be utilising these for just one runner taking part in almost every race, regardless of NRs (for now). I won't be using real cash at this point, until I know that it's safe to do so. Starting bank will be 1000 units due to the large number of 'bets'. Backs will equal 5 units and lays will equal 10 units. There are two possible outcomes; if the price doesn't half in-running, then we stand to lose 5 units, if the price does half, then we make 5 units. Let's see how this goes for a week or so :ok

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day one - 16th Nov 2010 Fakenham 1:30 Peak Seasons 2:00 Joan D'arc 2:30 Film Festival Folkestone 12:40 Whipperway 1:40 Ravethebrave 2:40 Sporting Rebel Southwell (AW) 2:50 Lethal 3:20 Border Owl 3:50 Dovedon Angel BFsp and In-play prices will be quoted at the end of the day.

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day one - 16th Nov 2010 Fakenham 1:30 Peak Seasons BFsp 3.90 In-play low 1.77 +5 units 2:00 Joan D'arc BFsp 13.50 1st +5 units 2:30 Film Festival BFsp 2.73 In-play low 2.02 -5 units Folkestone 12:40 Whipperway BFsp 3.10 In-play low 3.10 -5 units 1:40 Ravethebrave BFsp 2.60 1st +5 units 2:40 Sporting Rebel BFsp 12.50 In-play low 11.50 -5 units Southwell (AW) 2:50 Lethal BFsp 9.94 In-play low 7.20 -5 units 3:20 Border Owl BFsp 29 In-play low 6.20 +5 units 3:50 Dovedon Angel BFsp 4.70 In-play low 1.80 +5 units BFsp and In-play prices will be quoted at the end of the day.

+5 units for the day, although I don't want the bloody things to be winning, especially not at high prices like the 2:00! When I looked at the prices at 11pm last night, Lethal was available at 18.5 and would have traded at half that price for a further profit, which is something I also want to be aware of in future. Total bank: 1005 units

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 2 - 17th Nov 2010 Hexham 1:40 Glenwood Knight 2:10 Mister Pete 2:40 See You There 3:10 Innominate 3:40 Danceintothelight Kempton 4:40 Miss Polly Plum 7:10 Atlantic Story Lingfield 12:20 Sir Lunchalot 1:50 Ermyntrude 2:20 Glenridding 3:20 Lady Lam 3:50 Larkrise Star Warwick 1:30 Mylord Collonges 2:00 Youralltalk 2:30 Gilded Age 3:30 Great Hero

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day 2 - 17th Nov 2010 Hexham 1:40 Glenwood Knight 3.15, IP 1.25 +5 2:10 Mister Pete 13, IP 3.05 +5 2:40 See You There 5.49, IP 3.2 -5 3:10 Innominate 26.54, IP 25 -5 3:40 Danceintothelight 3.27 1st +5 Kempton 4:40 Miss Polly Plum 4.06, IP 1.57 +5 7:10 Atlantic Story 54.13, IP 2.32 +5 Lingfield 12:20 Sir Lunchalot 14.5, IP 12 -5 1:50 Ermyntrude 8.2, IP 2.4 +5 2:20 Glenridding 15.19, IP 11 -5 3:20 Lady Lam 5.59, IP 5.3 -5 3:50 Larkrise Star 4.51, 1.26 -5 (Just missed out!) Warwick 1:30 Mylord Collonges 10.5, IP 5.5 -5 2:00 Youralltalk 4.94, IP 2.12 +5 2:30 Gilded Age 8.22, IP 5.0 -5 3:30 Great Hero 160, IP 90 -5

-10 today, with some very near misses. That makes it -5 since day one and the bank stands at 995 units.

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 3 - 18th Nov 2010 Hereford 3:00 Moulin De La Croix Market Rasen 1:40 Smuglin 3:40 Stolen Light Wincanton 1:20 Mangonel 2:20 Fortification 2:50 Rebel Melody 3:20 January Wolverhampton 4:40 Sir Geoffrey

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day 3 - 18th Nov 2010 Hereford 3:00 Moulin De La Croix 5.9, IP 4.5 -5 Market Rasen 1:40 Smuglin 3.2 1st +5 3:40 Stolen Light NR Wincanton 1:20 Mangonel 5.98, IP 5.7 -5 2:20 Fortification 8.0, IP 5.1 -5 2:50 Rebel Melody 3.47 1st +5 3:20 January 13.0, IP 12.5 -5 Wolverhampton 4:40 Sir Geoffrey 1st +5

-5 again today. Betfair have not published the results of the 4:40 yet, but Sir Geoffrey stormed home at 8/1. The bank is now 990 units.

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 4 - 19th Nov 2010 Ascot 2:10 Highly Regal 3:20 Far More Serious Dundalk (AW) 8:00 Quinmaster, Sampers, Calm Bay Exeter 1:15 Superior Wisdom 3:55 Dormouse Musselburgh 12:55 Strongpoint 2:00 Mountskip Wolverhampton (AW) 4:15 Mr Lu 7:15 Bivouac

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day 4 - 19th Nov 2010 Ascot 2:10 Highly Regal 55, IP 10 +5 3:20 Far More Serious 3.75, IP 2.06 -5 Dundalk (AW) 8:00 Quinmaster 43.87, IP 1.52 Sampers 8.55, IP 6 Calm Bay 26, IP 3.5 +10 Exeter 1:15 Superior Wisdom 8.77 1st +5 3:35 Dormouse 8.13, IP 4.7 -5 Musselburgh 12:55 Strongpoint 19.5, IP 3.5 +5 2:00 Mountskip 21.96, IP 5.4 +5 Wolverhampton (AW) 4:15 Mr Lu 6, IP 4.5 -5 7:15 Bivouac NR

+15. 1005 units in the bank now :cheers

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 5 - 20th November 2010 Ascot 12:55 Marc Of Brilliance 1:30 Detroit Red 3:10 Consigliere Haydock 1:15 Pret A Thou 2:20 Dance Island 2:50 Fruity O Rooney Huntingdon 2:15 Porters War 2:45 I've Been Framed Lingfield 12:15 Wooden King 2:00 Seasonal Cross 2:30 Mister Green Wolverhampton 6:15 Dancing Freddy 6:45 Monte Major 9:15 Straversjoy

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day 5 - 20th November 2010 Ascot 12:55 Marc Of Brilliance 60.97, IP 50 -5 1:30 Detroit Red 18.10, IP 6 +5 3:10 Consigliere 7.4, IP 3 +5 Haydock 1:15 Pret A Thou 15.77, IP 15 -5 2:20 Dance Island 17.5, IP 4 +5 2:50 Fruity O Rooney 38.15, IP 14 +5 Huntingdon 2:15 Porters War 16.79, IP 7 +5 2:45 I've Been Framed 13 1st +5 Lingfield 12:15 Wooden King 4.4 1st +5 2:00 Seasonal Cross 7.6, IP 2.52 +5 2:30 Mister Green 29, IP 5.2 +5 Wolverhampton 6:15 Dancing Freddy 40, IP 26 -5 6:45 Monte Major 19.5, IP 50 -5 9:15 Straversjoy 3.35 1st +5

30 unit profit, today! Bank is now at 1035 units :) Hopefully things continue this way until the end of the month and the system can go live, using a reduced initial bank. I would ultimately like to introduce progressive staking using daily profits.

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 6 - 21st November 2010 Aintree 12:35 Frankie Figg 1:10 Comhla Ri Coig 1:45 One Cool Cookie Kelso 1:20 Stopped Out 2:30 Quicuyo

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day 6 - 21st November 2010 Aintree 12:35 Frankie Figg 12.5 1st +5 1:10 Comhla Ri Coig 12.5, IP 3.2 +5 1:45 One Cool Cookie 43.78, IP 21 +5 Kelso 1:20 Stopped Out 11.5 1st +5 2:30 Quicuyo 22.64, IP 11 +5

A green day all round! Bit of a shitter seeing the two winners, but that's gambling for ya. Perhaps a way around this is backing them seperately on the multiples market? +25 units profit means that the virtual bank is now at 1060, which is over a 5% profit! :loon

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 7 - 22nd November 2010 Ffos Las 3:00 Vivarini Kempton 1:30 Banjaxed Girl 3:45 Frosty's Gift Ludlow 2:15 Master Somerville 2:50 Celticello

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing 61 selections so far and 37 have dobbed. That's a 61% strike rate.

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Day 7 - 22nd November 2010 Ffos Las 3:00 Vivarini 12.5, IP 1.26 +5 Kempton 1:30 Banjaxed Girl 2.66, IP 1.31 +5 3:45 Frosty's Gift 13, IP 12.5 -5 Ludlow 2:15 Master Somerville 11, IP 9 -5 2:50 Celticello 8.8, IP 8.6 -5

-5 today, meaning that the bank is now 1055 units.

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing When I went to bed last night the dobbing stats hadn't been updated for today, so as this is a trial I hope no one minds me adding them now. I haven't seen any of today's results as of yet. Day 8 - 23rd November 2010 Sedgefield 2:30 Nifty Roy 3:00 Jeringa Southwell 12:40 Best One 1:40 Kingi, Cardinal 2:40 Hunters Belt Obviously I'm going to have to think of something else if this situation arises when it comes to using real money!

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

When I went to bed last night the dobbing stats hadn't been updated for today, so as this is a trial I hope no one minds me adding them now. I haven't seen any of today's results as of yet. Day 8 - 23rd November 2010 Sedgefield 2:30 Nifty Roy 25, IP 19 -5 3:00 Jeringa 10.69, IP 1.50 +5 Southwell 12:40 Best One 11.32, IP 3.05 +5 1:40 Kingi 14.50, IP 2.2 Cardinal 8.8, IP 5 +0 2:40 Hunters Belt 5.1, IP 1.27 +5 Obviously I'm going to have to think of something else if this situation arises when it comes to using real money!

+10 units. 1065 units in the bank. I'm quite happy with the way this has been going and I should have a bit of extra cash in my account tomorrow, which means that this should be live by Thursday :clap

[john_boyuk]

Re: Dobbing Hi jay... I see no one has commented on your posts as of yet so i thought I would! :D... I have been looking at a similar dobbing technique as yourself since last Friday and have had similar success. I have been looking at more dobs per day but because I work 9 - 5 during the week the last 2 days I have been deciding the night before (or as in todays scenario this morning due to not having information before I went to bed last night!) what I would have picked, although some of the SP's had obviously changed by the time the races started! Some had steamed so went in my favour and some had drifted meaning they had to more than halve! I have been looking at £5/Points with the lay being doubled at half the odds. Monday and today would have made me £25 less commission and over the weekend I actually traded and made around £35 so it is looking quite decent. Just need to see if it keeps making a profit I suppose but a great start! I have noticed the majority you have picked I had also and maybe we are getting our info from the same site! Anyway good luck and if I get time i'll put some of my selections up too if you like? Cheers and good luck when you go live with real money! John

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing :welcome to PL, John! I'm sure we are getting the info from the same site, as I can't find it anywhere else! I really should look back a bit more into the horse's runs before I place money on these, but so far I haven't and it is working well. I wonder if this could be the holy grail on horse race betting? It's surprisingly easy, too, which is a help! One thing I am curious about, however, is whether you'd have to have the money in your account to cover the lay liability if you had already done the backing?

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Dobbing

One thing I am curious about, however, is whether you'd have to have the money in your account to cover the lay liability if you had already done the backing?

If I'm understanding your method correctly, then the answer to that is no. That is to say, if you have backed a horse for £5 at 10/1 (I'll round up for the sake of simplicity) then you have a liability of £5 and a potential profit of £50. If you then put a lay in of £10 at 5/1, the liability of that bet is £50 which is offset by your first bet. So your maximum liability (and therefore, all the cash you need to stump up) would only be £5 per race

[john_boyuk]

Re: Dobbing Hi Jay...Yeah I've had a little success in the summer/autumn with 1 tick scalping and the odd swing trade here and there but I find dobbing much easier and much less hassle than studying figures intensely 10 minutes before the off as I do to secure a few ticks when I'm scalping!! From my experience scalping, I am pretty sure that once you have the back in place it covers the liability side of the lay. Of course you need to back first which is what you do with dobbing anyway unless you are trying reverse dobbing which I think is too risky personally. I notice that tomorrows form is not up yet so I will have a quick look in the morning before work and make a note of a few possibles and see if I was correct with my choices...As long as we win more than we lose then we are on a winner! Happy days hopefully!! :clap John

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Thanks for the clarification, onedunme! I'll start with the real money on Saturday and then that will give me a few more days to iron out a few issues and not make it a rush job. Day 8 - 24th November 2010 Chepstow 2:15 Misstree Dancer 3:55 Can't Remember Kempton 4:35 Green Earth, Penchesco 7:35 Al Gillani Lingfield 12:30 Pilgrim Dancer 2:40 Global Village 3:45 Toppenhall

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Just to let you know, you need the liability from the lay bet to be present in your account; I tried it!

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing

Thanks for the clarification, onedunme! I'll start with the real money on Saturday and then that will give me a few more days to iron out a few issues and not make it a rush job. Day 8 - 24th November 2010 Chepstow 2:15 Misstree Dancer 23.86, IP 2.88 +5 3:55 Can't Remember 7.63, IP 7.2 -5 Kempton 4:35 Green Earth NR, Penchesco 5.56, IP 5.1 -5 7:35 Al Gillani 50.28, IR 30 -5 Lingfield 12:30 Pilgrim Dancer 15.12, IP 14 -5 2:40 Global Village NR 3:45 Toppenhall 10.25, IP 4.1 +5

A ten unit loss today :\

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Day 9 - 24th November 2010 Newbury 2:10 Nostringsattached, Sir Ian, Buffalo Bob 2:45 Frosted Grape Taunton 2:20 U B Carefull 4:00 Salybia Bay Wolverhampton 7:10 Frameit To give live at this point would mean having to have a large bank at my disposal in order to set the trades the night before. At the weekend, however, I might give it a go!

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Dobbing

Just to let you know' date=' you need the liability from the lay bet to be present in your account; I tried it![/quote'] Then you must be doing something different to what I understood you to be doing. If the back bet is matched, you should be able to lay up to the liability of whatever the winnings should be. I'm confused.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Dobbing Yep, just tried it for myself and it worked. I just put all of my betfair balance apart from a fiver on man utd To win the prem at 5/1 (obviously unmatched but reducing the amount that can bet to jus five quid) then I backed Line Freedom in the 100 at newbury for my fiver at 3.25 leaving me nothing to bet with. What you seem to be saying mate is that I shouldn't then be able to lay the same horse at evens for ten pound liability as i have nothing left to bet with. Well I just did. Are you sure you're reducing the odds down to half before submitting the bet? Sorry if that sound basic but either I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to do or you're doing something wrong.

[john_boyuk]

Re: Dobbing Yeah I've done it too ONEDUNME...Once the back bet is matched I can lay at half the backed odds and the money that could be won if it wins seems to cover the lay liability if that makes sense? !!!! Does anyone know if I can take Betfair's SP in advance and be able to lay at half the SP's odds? If i'm backing dobs the night before or on the morning of the race the price can really drift after I've backed meaning I would need the selection to drop more than half in running to get my dob in. That is unless it steams after I've backed my selection of course...

[jayalexander]

Re: Dobbing Ah ok, the back bet has to be matched first? I've been trying to do them both on the same screen. Silly me! John, my advice is to have a look around for betting bots as you may find one that can do it. There are free ones out there, too.