nkdz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 i'll use betfair for this test. starting bank is virtual 100 quids and fixed liability will be 3 quids. i'll lay odds lower than 1,80 for which i estimate that have no value at all. betfair commision calculated automatically. no more than 5 lays a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: laying low odds 1. lay barcelona vs villarreal @ 1,28 (10,71) 2. lay austria vs kapfenberg @ 1,41 (7,32) 3. lay pao vs larissa @ 1,30 (10,00) 4. lay slovan vs nitra @ 1,43 (6,98) 5. lay bulls vs wizzards @ 1,16 (18,75) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: laying low odds 1. lay barcelona vs villarreal @ 1' date='28 (10,71) -3 pts 2. lay austria vs kapfenberg @ 1,41 (7,32) -3 pts 3. lay pao vs larissa @ 1,30 (10,00) +10 pts 4. lay slovan vs nitra @ 1,43 (6,98) +6,98 pts 5. lay bulls vs wizzards @ 1,16 (18,75) -3 pts strike rate: 2/5 (40%) liability: 15 pts profit/loss: +7,98 pts yield: 53% total bankroll: 107,98 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Laying low odds now i see that 3% liability is maybe a bit too much for this kind of betting. can someone help how to calculate risk of losing entire bank. let's say that average lay odds will at around 1,30-1,40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Laying low odds 6. lay lyon vs nice @ 1,44 (6,82) 7. lay spartak vs ksovyetov @ 1,47 (6,38) 8. lay celtic vs st.mirren @ 1,31 (9,68) 9. lay varese vs brindisi @ 1,34 (8,82) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Re: Laying low odds 6. lay lyon vs nice @ 1,44 (6,82) :@ 7. lay spartak vs ksovyetov @ 1,47 (6,38) :clap 8. lay celtic vs st.mirren @ 1,31 (9,68) :@ 9. lay varese vs brindisi @ 1,34 (8,82) :@ strike rate: 3/9 (33,3%) liability: 27 pts profit/loss: +5,36 pts yield: 19,9% total bankroll: 105,36 pts since many of overrated favourites lost yesterday(chelsea, lakers, kopenhagen..) i decided to change my approaach here. from now on, backer's stake will be fixed at 3 points so i can include much more bets in this test. it started well, if i added chelsea(like i wanted to) i'd had a solid bonus from yesterday. anyway, too bad there's no more tennis except for masters so will focus on basketball and football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Re: Laying low odds I like this, nice start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: Laying low odds Thanks Hooloovoo, Didn't had time to post anything for the past two days but will continue now with some NBA selections. I'm following pure logic in this one; if you cant make long-term profit by taking bets with such low odds than it's logical to make profit by laying them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamas1984 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: Laying low odds hmmmm i like this too... nice thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: Laying low odds 10) Lay Spurs vs Bulls @ 1,40 (liability 1,14 pts) 11) Lay Thunder vs Rocketts @ 1,38 (1,08) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: Laying low odds Thanks Hooloovoo, Didn't had time to post anything for the past two days but will continue now with some NBA selections. I'm following pure logic in this one; if you cant make long-term profit by taking bets with such low odds than it's logical to make profit by laying them. One word of caution is that the commission will eat away a bunch of your profit. Time will tell i suppose, keep it up :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: Laying low odds both nba bets lost... strike rate: 3/11 (27,3%) liabliity: 29,22 pts profit: +3,14 pts yield: 10.7% @Hooloovoo i know, thats why i'll try to be more selective. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Laying low odds its time to revive this thread to see how its going in a long run. it was a solid start, hope to see more overrated favourite failing to deliver for those who back them :tongue2 lets get on to business: Haase vs Sugita Lay: Haase @ 1.30 Liability: £0.86 Tsonga vs Garcia-Lopez Lay: Tsonga @ 1.42 Liability: £1.2 Juventus vs Parma Lay: Juventus @ 1.52 Liability: £1.54 Backers stake fixed at £3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Laying low odds 15. lay panathinaikos to beat panionios at 1,02 (£0,06) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Laying low odds strike rate: 4/15 liabliity: 32,88 pts profit: +4,02 pts yield: 12,22% 16. lay wawrinka to beat goffin at 1,14 (£0,40) 17. lay goerges to beat arn at 1,34 (£0,97) 18. lay wickmayer to beat peng at 1,44 (£1,26) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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