BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY)

[Aidymac]

Foxtrot Alpha - Leicester 4:40 Will love the heavy ground tomorrow and this horse is a front runner so on heacy ground this animal could be very very hard to catch due to the ground. Made all over 7 furlongs at Salisbury and Folkestone of late and the step back to 6 tomorrow should suit in this ground. Is up a few pounds but should be no hassle to the horse as it was 2nd off a mark of 70 before and runs off 62 tomorrow, still well treated. It has never run on heavy but its only run on soft ground it won. Should be hard to catch and could hold on. 1 Point win @ 11/2 (Hills) BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 3.40 Leicester Harlestone Times looks hard to beat in this line up on what is going to be very testing conditions, he has shaped as an out and out stayer over this sort of trip and was ultimately very impressive last time out on faster ground. Won the time prior to that over shorter trip but on soft ground and a 6lb penalty is well within his reach I feel and the yard continue in good form! 1pt win Harlestone Times 2/1 Hills

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 3:10 Leicester - Picture Editor - Back OK, so it's a farcically short price and I won't win any prizes for originality but I've got a strike rate to protect and this is a bombproof banker. It'll get me slightly closer to even for the year and it's just a question of how far he wins by. Will be in the running for some of the major races next year and this is a nice piece of work before he's tucked away for the winter 1pt win @ sp

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 17:00 Catt Consult - Highest rating of the three year olds in this race trying distance for the 1st time and unknown on the going having only ran on the turf twice. She is a descendant of the impressive Dr Fong and Paul Hannagan opts for this horse with trainer having good statistics here 27% win rate overall but for three year olds it bumps up to 6/14 a 43% success rate. 1pt win 9/2 William Hill

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 2.50 Southwell - El Dececy 0.5pts E/W (18/1 Coral BOG) Never won on an artificial surface but has been placed at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, surface here is quite different to both those venues but small stable have a decent record here and leading jockey Robert Winston takes the ride. Looks nicely weighted on some of his form from last year on turf.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY)

5.20 Southwell - El Dececy 0.5pts E/W (18/1 Coral BOG) Never won on an artificial surface but has been placed at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, surface here is quite different to both those venues but small stable have a decent record here and leading jockey Robert Winston takes the ride. Looks nicely weighted on some of his form from last year on turf.

5.20 not 2.50

[torn up slip]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 5:20 Southwell- Realt na Mara This horse has won it's last 5 starts in this grade and has won here before also. The trip holds no fears for him either and the other horses at the top of the betting are either unraced on the fibresand, have no winning form on it, or are havily exposed. Hughie Morrison and Hayley Turner are a combination I like and the last time the horse ran here in this grade he won carrying 4lb extra albeit over a furlong less. 6/1 With Victor Chandlers.

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 17:20 Southwell Trailblazing makes the switch to the All Weather for the first time today and I believe Johnston is doing this to see if this sparks any improvement out of the horse who has only had just the 9 runs to date. Won a decent class 3 maiden race at Ascot in July 2009 and the form of that race has worked out quite well. The 2nd place Taajub is now rated 108, has only won a maiden race since but went on to place three times that year as a 2 year old including a group 2 race at York and a group 3 race at Ascot. Is unraced as a 3 year old though. The 4th place Frozen Power is now rated 109 and has won 5 times since his debut run that day, the wins include a listed race in France and Group 2 race in Germany. Fireback who was 6th in that race has won two decent big field handicaps this season off marks of 78 and 84 and is now rated 89 on turf. Even the 7th placed hose Pintura has won three handicaps in 2010 off marks of 68, 74 and 80 (two class 5 handicaps and one class 3). So as you can see the form of that maiden has worked out very well but Trailblazing himself has not been up to much at all since that win, he was 3rd at Epsom in a 6 runner race in the race that followed the win, finishing 1 length off the winner but since then his form has been beyond poor with his closest finish coming 13 lengths off the winner. He drops down a further 5lbs in the handicap today and is now only rated 70 so the handicapper really is giving him a chance if he can spark a revival in form today. Johnston has done this time and time again so it wouldn't be a shock to see this one spring in at a big price. Has only tackled 7 furlongs three times from 9 runs but pedigree suggests the trip is ideal and if he takes to the Southwell surface today then there is no reason as to why he can't land this race. Blinkered for the first time today which can hopefully help lead to a turn in form. Joe Fanning is on board today for the 3rd time and he was in the saddle for this horses only win to date. 0.5pts E/W Trailblazing @ 20/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) 4:20 Barbirolli @ Southwell - Was a good 3rd at Folkestone two runs back and has won at this distance before.This is its first race on the fibresand but if taking to the surface can go close.Has useful jockey Sophie Doyle onboard claiming 3lb and she has a 17% strike rate with 4+ year olds. 0.5 pts E/W @ 22/1 VCBet

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) Southwell 4.20 - Swords - win at 11/2 BOG with Victor chandler Has won twice over this CD and has now dropped below his last winning mark Has a breal over the summer and this is his 3rd run back, beaten 30-odd lengths on his reappearance and 8 lengths 2nd run.........should be cherry ripe now. This is a poor race, but it's his grade, his track, his trip...........most of the others near the top of the betting have no track form

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) CHARGING INDIAN 2.55 Tipperary. 0.5 points each way. Not show enough to be winning this, but gets soft ground today which I think will suit much better. Also capable of much better anyhow, so hopefully today will be the day that he shows it. The trip's fine and appears to jump well enough, so at big odds would appear a value call.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 5TH OF OCTOBER (TUESDAY) MOONLIGHT BLAZE 3.20 Southwell. 0.5 points each way. Needs to be at best, but last time was a decent effort and I think he'll build on that. Gets in off the same mark and is proven on this surface, so with Royston Ffrench riding as well as ever, I'd be a confident player.