UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

[Jk]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Spartak Moscow v Chelsea A difficult trip for Chelsea, who travel to Russia without Alex, Lampard and most improtantly Drogba. We saw against Villa how much of a difference that can make, and they looked toothless up front. However, Chelsea are still extremely strong defensively. They've only conceded 2 goals in the league in 8 games, and with Essien and Mikel in front of an incredibly experienced back four, they are so difficult to break down. Moscow's home record may be a little worse than some would think. They have only won twice at home since millenium, and those were against poor teams. Kiev have already gone to Moscow and won 4-1. I think a combination of a solid defence, and Ancelotti's tactics will see Chelsea come away with a tight win. Chelsea to win with a clean sheet @ 5/2 - 3pts - StanJames

:beer

[Atko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

A couple of French sides are in action tonight and I'm going for one bet. I have to take Ajax -1AH against Auxerre tonight in the match in Amsterdam. Auxerre have been pretty poor this year domestically. They sit 17th in Ligue 1 and have only won once, away at whipping boys Arles. They lost at home to Bordeaux at the weekend and seem to be toiling in their attempts to hit the heights of last year. This season in the Champions League, they've been plucky, but have been punished by AC Milan and Real Madrid at key moments. At the l'Abbe Deschamps, I'd expect them to be a tough nut to crack, but I can't see them coming away from the Dutch capital with anything here. They are decimated in attack. Main strikers Ireneusz Jelen and Anthony Le Tallec are missing along with winger Steven Langil and defender Jean-Pascal Mignot. Dennis Oliech will play up top on his own and although he has pace (they'll look to counter-attack), he's not a Champions League striker. I look at their midfielders and only Benoit Pedretti looks comfortable at this level. Kamel Chafni, Delvin Ndinga and Valter Birsa aren't up to it at this level and with Ajax expected to attack from the off, I can't see them offering protection to their defence. Ajax have got the players to take chances. Luis Suarez is an obvious threat but I've been impressed with Mounir El-Hamdaoui this season, and he will cause Adama Coulibaly and Stephane Grichting issues. In midfield, they have a bit more in defence and in attack with Rasmus Lindgren, Demy de Zeeuw and Eyong Enoh, and their defence and goalkeeper appear settled and strong, although they have conceded on league duty. I saw the posts talking about overs and looking at Ajax's 'frailties' at the back, but Auxerre haven't got the armoury to give this one a right good go. They may well nick one, but Ajax are capable of scoring for fun against this sort of opposition at home. There is, IMO, a bit of a class difference here with Auxerre's absentees, and with Ajax knowing a win is imperative if they want to have a say in the last 16 shout, they will go for the win here. I can see them getting it by a couple of goals. In the other match involving a French side, Marseille take on Zilina tonight at the Stade Velodrome and both teams know they must win if they harbour any ambitions of qualifying after two losses. On paper, Marseille have a stronger side, but I'm unwilling to back them on the -1.5 handicap. Even though Didier Deschamps has a full-strength team to choose from, OM have been struggling this year. Stephane M'Bia returns to the defence for this one but he's had an on-off relationship with Deschamps of late, and his performances have been less than impressive. Lucho Gonzalez hasn't really had a huge impact on matches this season, while Loic Remy, Brandao, Andre-Pierre Gignac and Mathieu Valbuena haven't clicked in the final third. Goals have been their problem and Zilina are a stuffy, athletic side who will look to counter-attack. Chelsea and Spartak both broke Pavel Hapal's side down fairly easily but OM aren't creating a great deal domestically. They laboured against Nancy at the weekend, winning 1-0 at home, and the pressure is on them to perform here. Considering the handicap is -1.5AH, the price of 1.877 is far too short - I'd be looking for something in the 2.00s, and ideally, on a -1.25AH. Marseille will probably win this but handicap, at that price, is a no-value bet for me. Selection: - Ajax -1AH (vs Auxerre) @ 2.12 with Pinnacle (5/10) PUSH :hope

Strange match. Ajax in control until a red card and AJA goal. I'd have been happy with a push then but Auxerre finished with nine men. Perhaps my best result of the night was swerving Marseille -1.5AH...

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October Spartak Moscow - Chelsea under 2.5 @ 1.74 :D Roma - Basel over 2.5 @ 1.66 :D Bayern Munich -1.5 @ 1.85 :@ Late goal ruins the pick Ajax - Auxerre under 2.5 @ 1.93 :@ Real Madrid - Milan under 2.5 @ 2.14 :D Did not expect this one after the two early goals Arsenal - Shaktar Donetsk over 2.5 @ 1.74 :D

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Today I'm taking five UCL underdogs on the handicap in games in which the public is 90% on the favorites: Auxerre' date= Shakhtar and Basel +1, and Cluj and Zilina +1.5. Last fall in Champions League's last four rounds of group play, there were 13 games in which the public was 90% on one side...the underdogs covered the handicap in 10 of them. Inter 2-2 Kyiv; Barca 1-2 Rubin Kazan; Juve 1-0 Haifa (as a 1.5 favorite); ManU 3-3 CSKA Moscow; Sevilla 1-1 Stuttgart...need I go on? There's always talk in here about teams needing to win (as if the opponent doesn't), teams doing the business in front of their home crowd (as if the crowd is more important than the matchup), etc, etc, etc. Well I'm not falling for it anymore. In group play, no team plays to win all six games, and the minnows rise up and take points from the big fish.

Auxerre 1-2 PUSH Shakhtar 1-5 LOSS Zilina 0-1 WIN Cluj 2-3 WIN Basel 3-1 WIN +2.1 units

[IAmGooner]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Arsenal to beat Shakhtar Donetsk @ 8/11 (Bet365 : 6pts) Think this is a really good price tbh, was expecting us to be 1.5 region for this one.Donetsk are a good technical team and it will be good to see Eduardo coming back to the Emirates here but I think we'll be well able to overpower them at home. We have Walcott and Bendtner back in the squad today for Birmingham so they should be a little better in terms of fitness in a few days time...Fabregas should also be back according to Wenger. We've had some sloppy results in recent weeks and have some defensive injuries....but I still think this is a great price as we are at least a level above Shaktar. GL!

WIN......easy one really. We were overpriced.

[mikeybirr]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Arsenal v Shakhtar- Arsenal win at 4/6 Both teams to score at 4/6 Expect arsenal have to do much for them but im sure shakhtar will give the a game down 2recent performances in europe in last last few years Real madird v Ac Milan- Under 2.5 goals 23/20 Think this match happened last year and their was plenty of goals, But a new man in charge and quite a few of their reason mathces have been low scoring and with the not giving away 2 many goals All bets wit william hill

Happy days a bit lucky wit 2 of them though, expected shakhtar 2 give arsenal a bit more of a game. Champions league seems to be a lot of profitable than the prem for me anyway:beer

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Ajax - Auxerre Over 2' date=5 Goals @ 2,05 Great odds for a game with Ajax involved. Both teams will not hide or calculate, 3 points needed to keep in theory chances to advance. As much as I favour Ajax to win this one, French teams away in Europe are dangerous, and 1,66 for HW is low for me. The home game of Ajax vs AC Milan could have been Over long before the HT, Ajax are vulnerable at the back - anyone watching them vs the Italians ( and vs Utrecht ) must have seen. Very happy with these odds, bet365, medium to high stake it. If I am wrong about the French, then I still got the hosts to complete the Over on their own - won't be the first time Ajax score 3+ at the Arena. Arsenal - Shakthar Over 2,5 Goals @ 1,80 Some good reasoning above about this one, nothing to add except that the game looks exactly the same to me as the Ajax one. Could have waited for better odds on the in-play, but 1,80 is good as it is with Arsenal involved. In both games I see more reason to stake on the Over compared to the Roma game where it is @ 1,70 - I expect goals there too, but that is an in-play for me at least until it gets up to 2,00 - 2,10. If Roma score first they will try to ''kill'' it, going on counters for a second. Still not convinced about the Real game - with all that firepower on the pitch it could be another high-scoring one, yet it is JM in charge... GL all

The ease with which Arsenal moved with or without the ball was scary :clap

[SpiritOf67]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Arsenal v Shakhtar Donestsk - Arsenal @ 4/6 general Should have got on this last night with Arsenal a massive 1.78 on Betfair at one point :@ I'm a big fan of Shakhtar Donestsk, they have won both games in the group so far and beating Braga in Portugal was a very impressive result. They are a side with a lot of Brazilians and a very good technical side. However, I just feel Arsenal at home in Europe are too good for most sides and they are a level about Shakhtar. With Fabregas and Walcott back in contention I think Arsenal should have too much for the visitors in what promises to be a very exciting game. Sporting Braga v Partizan Belgrade - Braga @ 1.85 William Hill This looks a very big price here. Braga are a very strong home side and the game they lost against Shakhtar was the first they had lost in over a year. This looks like the battle for third place with both these sides having lost their first two games but I think Braga look the stronger side and with their excellent home form in Europe and domestically over the last few years they should have too much for the visitors.

Both win :ok Pity I threw them in an accy with other losers :eyes

[KautoStar666]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

AJAX @ 4/6 (bet365) Ajax will see there double header with Auxerre as do or die...IF they can manage to pick up maximum points here then there games with Real/Milan could prove to be one of games for qualification. Its a must win game for them in terms of at least achieving 3rd place for a Europa league spot. MARSEILLE -1 @ 5/6 (bet365) Again a similar scenario here and Marseille will be looking for a good win here to keep them in touch in the group. 2 defeats from 2 for both these sides leave them trailing behind in this group but Marseille will know Chelsea cud do them a favour in beating Spartak and wont want to waste that by losing at home. I think they will surpass the -1 here easily. ARSENAL v SHAKHTAR - over 2.5 @ 4/5 (bet365) Arsenal in europe are a joy to watch, full of attacking threat and always score goals, and opponents Shakhtar arent shot shy either and will probly see this game as a "lets just go for it" knowing they are already in a good position to progress. I can see goals and wouldnt be suprised to see Eduardo on the scoresheet back at his former club.

How all 3 didint come in ill never know with the amount of shots on goal from Marseille. As expected from every angle the Arsenal game easily exceeded the 2.5 goals target, and got a few people into good money along the way. Ajax also pulled in some profit despite going down to 10 men early in the second half. All in all a good round of games for the punters, only being hindered by the "shock" or not so shock Roma result at the hands of Basel.

[*Noodles*]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Tuesday 19.10.10 Roma-Basilea In 9 match seasonal Totti has not scored a goal, either for the difficulties the team had up to now want to form a state of exception not the captain's red and yellow. Tonight is a crucial match for Roma on the path to qualification to the knockout stage of Champions League will need to make the home turn, also because in the remaining three group matches will be to make 2 away and the home match against Bayern Monaco. After Saturday's match against Genoa coach Ranieri praised highly the performance of Totti, trying to smooth out even the small controversy arose between the two earlier in the season. Rome boasts two previous home win against Basilea (season 2005/06 and 2009/10) and on both occasions Totti has scored a goal. A memory I also remember a Uefa Cup match against Zurigo for about ten years' ago, won by Roma to the 'Olympic' own with a goal from Totti, confirming that the matches against Swiss teams seem to wear well. With this background I think Totti tonight will mark his first goal of the season against an opponent not irresistible. Totti to score anytime, 3/10 stakes, odds 2.10, bet365

Totti no score...-3

Tuesday 19.10.10 Ajax-Auxerre Ajax after losing in Madrid at home and drew with Milan should definitely take advantage of the double confrontation against' Auxerre (in conjunction with the dual match between Spanish and Italian) to keep alive any hopes of qualification to the knockout stages of the Champions League. Ajax in the league in second place in the standings and is fresh from success in the league against NAC 3-0. For this match, the team usually the owner, will be also the 'outer defensive left Anita and midfielder De Jong, replaced by Sulejmani (with the consequent retreat of Emanuelson on the defensive line) and Lindgren. The offensive potential of the Dutch team is first 'policy, backed up by two guns as Suarez and El Hamdaoui, the Moroccan striker bought from AZ Alkmaar with the team that has produced 43 goals in his last two seasons and has so far already made 7 goals in 9 games, plus one marked at Milan in the 'last match of the Champions League. Auxerre is in Champions League play this fairly lucky because last season he obtained the qualification to the preliminary' final day by winning the field of Sochaux and the concomitant defeat of Lille in Lorient. In preliminary succeeded in 'undertaking to eliminate the Zenit, winning 2-0 at home in a match that the Russians closed in nine players after two expulsions suffered. In the first two matches, the French team lost to Milan (0-2) and at home against Real Madrid (0-1), and in the league is not doing well because the crabs team of Mr. Fernandez takes place in the standings on 17 won with 8 points in 9 games. For this match are to be reported several defections, midfielders Langila (8 appearances) and Traore (2 appearances, 1 goal) and forwards Le Tallec (6 appearances, 1 goal) and Jelen (6 appearances, 1 goal). Given the 'current form when the two teams, and the different international experience, I think the' Ajax could win this match and still have hopes of qualification. I also think that El Hamdaoui can be followed to its unique moment of the form (6 goals scored in the last six official matches of 'Ajax) and exploit the uncertainties of the French defense, scoring a goal to help the victory of his team. Ajax AH (-0.75), 5/10 stakes, odds 1.875, bet365 El Hamdaoui to score anytime, 3/10 stakes, odds 2.25, bet365

FT...2-1 +2.1875 El Hamdaoui no score -3 October 2010 Total Picks = 12 Total Balance = 7 Win - 1 Void - 4 Lose Units Balance = +14.53

[Puki]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October

Ajax VS Auxerre PICK: 1 1.65 7/10 -Ajax in front of their own fans should do the job here if want to keep with real and milan thay play nice atacking football with Suarez and El Hamdaoui up front to score goals.In league thay are doing good job sitting on 2nd place with 6W 2D 1L.Today is there real chanse to grab clear win and 3 points.Auxerre in france league thay are on the 17 spot with 1W 5D 1L thay need to focus on next 2 fixtures againts psg and nice to try and draw if thay want to keep position above relegation zone in the long running season so thet will slow players minds here at today match desperatly tring to defend againts offencive ajax style. Auxerre missings: Jelen, Licata, Al.Traoré, Langil, Y.Sanogo, A.Le Tallec Arsenal VS Shakhtar PICK: G.G 1.95 4/10 -Arsenal's weekness is at the back with Squilacci, Djurou and Fabianski...Vermealen, Koscielny and Sagna are all OUT, so that's 3 out of 4 regulars out in defensive positions.Offensivelly the gunners are always strong and I expect them to score on or two at least...overs and both to score seem to both be good options and likely to occur...I rate this Shakhtar team very highly, lot's of quality in all positions.another angle to this match is the return of on old Arsenal boy to Emirates Stadium (though the key guy to watch on Shakhtar will be number 20 Douglas Costa). :hope:hope :clap :beer :drums