White Feather

Temptationinmilan 12/1 Coral - 14:15 Musselburgh - 4 places
 Collingham 16/1 Coral - 14:50 Musselburgh - 4 places
2 x singles - each way double

ITV are showing a staggering twenty live races over the weekend and here's part one of my look at the action.
Sandown 1.25 The days terrestrial action kicks off with a 2M 4F novices’ handicap hurdle in which Nicky Henderson’s top weight Jingko Blue, who has entries in two of the novice hurdles at Cheltenham, appeals despite a steadier of twelve stone on his handicap debut. Not seen since beating Masaccio at Newbury in early December he’ll need to be winning this well to be taking up either of those fancy entries and with James Bowen in the plate should be hard to beat. One horse who’s worth a saver on is the Lucy Wadham trained Zain Nights who looks well treated on his flat form.   JINGKO BLUE 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor ZAIN NIGHTS 1/2 point each way @ 11/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Musselburgh 1.40 Six go to post for this 2m 4 1/2F class 3 novices’ handicap chase. It has an open look about it with each of the sextet holding a chance of sorts. The one that catches my eye is the Irish trained Jackpot de Choisel. John C McConnell’s gelding is the youngest in the field and this will only be his seventh career start under rules having won three of them. He was well backed when winning over course and distance on his fencing debut at the beginning of the year and just a 5lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him from running a big race here with the consistent General Officer looking the biggest threat.   JACKPOT DE CHOISEL 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor   Sandown 2.00 Just five go to post for this 1M 7 1/2F class 2 handicap chase which may chiefly concern Harry Fry’s In Excelsis Deo and Jane Williams’s top weight Saint Segal. Slight preference is for the latter who would of won at Ascot from Boothill but for a last fence tumble in November. He kept on to chase home First Flow at Lingfield a fortnight ago and off of the same mark can gain a richly deserved first victory of the season under David Noonan.   SAINT SEGAL 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Musselburgh 2.15 The day’s feature race at the Scottish track is the class 2 bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 7 1/2F. A lot of the thirteen strong field are attempting this trip for the first time so have stamina to prove but one horse who will adore the distance is the Alastair Ralph runner Magna Sam who won this very race last year by just over 4L and will be ridden once again by Alex Edwards. He followed that up with a creditable fifth in the Scottish National and appears to have been laid out for this defence of his crown. He no doubt needed his only run this season back in November here over 2M 7 1/2F and a helpful 2lb drop for that is a bonus. With additional places he’s a strong each way fancy.   MAGNA SAM 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Sandown 2.35 The day’s feature at the Esher track is the Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase run over a distance of 2M 4F. Officially there’s only 5lb between the five runners but the favourite Hermes Allen will be hard to beat. He looked a smart prospect when winning at Newbury on his fencing debut in December and certainly wasn’t disgraced when stepping up in trip in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when runner up the very smart French raider Il Est Francais, going down by 11L but clear from the rest. Dropping back to this intermediate trip looks ideal and with jockey Harry Cobden in such fine form attempting to chase down Sean Bowen in the jockeys championship in the saddle can take this.   HERMES ALLEN 2 points win @ 6/4 888Sport   Musselburgh 2.50 A decent class 2 handicap hurdle run over 1M 7 1/2F is next up with thirteen going to post. The race has a very open look about it with several holding claims. Five year old Your Honour, trained in Ireland by J A Nash comes here having won a listed handicap hurdle at Limerick over Christmas having been pushed out to win by 5 1/2L. He’s not been done any favours by the British handicapper who’s asked him to carry a stone more in the weights but in a wide open race appeals each way with the useful Gavin Brouder claiming a valuable 3lb.   YOUR HONOUR 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Leopardstown 3.00 A big field, 3M 104 yard listed handicap hurdle has attracted 24 runners in which you’ll sure to need some luck in running. County Kildare handler Barry O’Connell will be excited about his Marine Nationale’s appearance on Sunday but has a solid each way chance here with his seven year old mare Nine Graces. She’s run two pleasing runs in similar handicaps this season most notably last time when finishing third (beaten just under a length) to the re-opposing Garth Chuil and can meet her old rival on 4lb better terms which may be enough to turn the tables. Willie Mullins’s Fine Margin looks a danger to all but with extra places its the Michael O’Sullivan ridden mare that takes my eye.   NINE GRACES 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Sandown 3.10 A decent sized field of fifteen line up for this valuable 2M 7 1/2F handicap hurdle. Quite a few have decent chances including the Jonjo O’Neill trained Saint Davy who looked good when winning at Ludlow at the turn of the year and Harry Derham’s Scamallach Liath who’s Ascot second to Top Cloud has been boosted since by the subsequent victories of the 3rd and 5th. It’s hard to split the pair so it’s worth dutching the pair against the field.   SAINT DAVY 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365 SCAMALLACH LIATH 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365     Leopardstown 3.35 Just the four line up for the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup run over a distance of 3M 70 yards in which it will be a shock if the race doesn’t develop into a match between Martin Brassil’s Fastorslow and Willie Mullins’s Galopin Des Champs. The former has beaten Galopin Des Champs on his last two starts and a case can obviously be made for him but the way that the latter won the Savills Chase over Christmas he should be winning here all be it at a cramped odds.   Sandown 3.45 The day’s terrestrial action concludes with a ten runner 3M class 2 handicap chase. It looks another competitive contest although Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Kestrel Valley appeals towards the bottom of the weights. He’s won four of his last five starts with his latest success coming at Ludlow when making all to come home 20L to the good. The handicapper has responded by pushing him up another 7lb but he can still run well at an each way price.   KESTREL VALLEY 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 123    

I actually do have a Granny Lily (passed away) me and my sister had a tenner on it, also backed it the last time when it fell. The each way double paid £33.80  nice wee turn - thanks Granny 😂

I actually do have a Granny Lily (passed away) me and my sister had a tenner on it, also backed it the last time when it fell. The each way double paid £33.80  nice wee turn - thanks Granny 😂

Coconut Splash 17/2 general - 15:00 Ffos Las - 3 places
My Granny Lily 8/1 bet 365 - 16:30 Flos Las - 4 places
2 x singles - each double

I read somewhere that high weights ....11st 2lb plus do rubbish in this ???

Difficult race to access - I read that Irish Bred horses are 6-8, that may narrow it down to those who are rated 127 or above?

Difficult race to access - I read that Irish Bred horses are 6-8, that may narrow it down to those who are rated 127 or above?

15/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
12/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Aged 6 years-old
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Former flat horses
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/16 – Rated between 120-130
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/16 - Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 5)
4 of the last 7 winners were ridding by a claiming jockey
Collingham (11/2) won the race in 2023

Trends
Age – 6 of the last 8 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 1 of the last 8 winners were favourites, 4/8 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 8 winners won on their last run before the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 8/8 winners ran within the last 42 days
4/8 winners ran in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Sandown, 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous win at Sandown
Previous Distance Form – 6/8 winners had at least 1 previous run over 22-24 furlongs, 3/8 had at least 1 previous win over 22-24 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/8 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 7/8 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 7/8 winners were rated 127 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/8 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 6/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 4/8 winners had at least 1 win that season
The 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2021 races were all cancelled due to adverse weather

15/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
12/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Aged 6 years-old
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Former flat horses
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/16 – Rated between 120-130
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/16 - Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 5)
4 of the last 7 winners were ridding by a claiming jockey
Collingham (11/2) won the race in 2023

15/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
12/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Aged 6 years-old
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Former flat horses
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/16 – Rated between 120-130
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/16 - Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 5)
4 of the last 7 winners were ridding by a claiming jockey
Collingham (11/2) won the race in 2023

Current ratings .....
Call me lord. 9.0 20/1 
Bold endeavour. 9.0 16/1 
Goshen    8.7 20/1 
Fine margin. 8.3 8/1 
Monmiral.  7.9 
Ed keeper.  7.9 
I'll try and narrow it down when I get chance ....but top three look very good value currently 🤔
Edit .....a good prep race is a must so I'll omit Goshen and monmiral leaving 
Call me lord.   99
Bold endeavour. 96 
Fine margin.    101 
Ed keeper.  94 
That's best class ratings ......overall this more often than not goes  to a up and coming horse age 6 to 9 which goes against call my lord but I still think he's definate Ew material and good value .....most likely winners are fine margin or bold endeavour imo ...but ed keeper is a lively Ew danger 

Trends
Age – 6 of the last 8 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 1 of the last 8 winners were favourites, 4/8 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 8 winners won on their last run before the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 8/8 winners ran within the last 42 days
4/8 winners ran in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Sandown, 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous win at Sandown
Previous Distance Form – 6/8 winners had at least 1 previous run over 22-24 furlongs, 3/8 had at least 1 previous win over 22-24 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/8 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 7/8 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 7/8 winners were rated 127 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/8 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 6/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 4/8 winners had at least 1 win that season
The 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2021 races were all cancelled due to adverse weather

Trends
Age – 6 of the last 8 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 1 of the last 8 winners were favourites, 4/8 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 8 winners won on their last run before the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 8/8 winners ran within the last 42 days
4/8 winners ran in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Sandown, 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous win at Sandown
Previous Distance Form – 6/8 winners had at least 1 previous run over 22-24 furlongs, 3/8 had at least 1 previous win over 22-24 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/8 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 7/8 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 7/8 winners were rated 127 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/8 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 6/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 4/8 winners had at least 1 win that season
The 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2021 races were all cancelled due to adverse weather

Trends
Age – 6 of the last 8 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 1 of the last 8 winners were favourites, 4/8 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 8 winners won on their last run before the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 8/8 winners ran within the last 42 days
4/8 winners ran in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Sandown, 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous win at Sandown
Previous Distance Form – 6/8 winners had at least 1 previous run over 22-24 furlongs, 3/8 had at least 1 previous win over 22-24 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/8 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 7/8 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 7/8 winners were rated 127 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/8 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 6/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 4/8 winners had at least 1 win that season
The 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2021 races were all cancelled due to adverse weather

Listened to the stv guys pre race and they said they weren't liking the looks of the horse before the off. That was great analysis, eh, lol.

Coral was offering "place £5 bet and get £5 free bet"  - took offer up and placed my £5 free bet on Ga Law won 8/1.

I'm glad you were on it. Yes after I put the bet on, I realised I could have done each way single at 28/1
 

Pretty sure the boost only applies to the win part, not the place. That’s what the rules say and I think that was reflected in the returns when I had a winner with the offer. Didn’t realise you could go £5 e/w rather than £2.50 though but it makes sense if only the fiver win is boosted.

I'm glad you were on it. Yes after I put the bet on, I realised I could have done each way single at 28/1
 

Erne River 14/1 - 15:15 Doncaster Saturday 27th
Took advantage of WH "double epic odds - 28/1 - £5 maximum stake.