Pep004

Hahahaha, what the f...  

Here we go again.  You do have the terrorist kind of personality 
 
As I was writing about Monaco crazy conversion rate, I need to add this statistic fact: Monaco have scored 9 goals with their last 11 shots on target in the Champions League. Surgical. Chapeau!

Yes, but you know how it is. Already having 3 matches.. with mutual stake over 10 units, it makes you wonder.. isn't it enough? But yes, with Lorient case, I should try at least with half unit on 10 odds. But well. It's good feeling to be right about upset anyway.
For match of Nantes, there is a question what is in mind of Nantes.. With a win against Bordeaux, they would join the race for Europe spots. Anyway, even if there is "what if" in their heads, I think that concept of football won't change. With Sergio, they are building one image of the club, staying honest to their style, and I am sure that they can "surprise" Bordeaux. With Nakoulma, we've finally got decent striker, who is capable of scoring. I need to admit that Conceiçao succeeded with "re-motivating" Kacaniklic, who is playing pretty solid lately. There are still some guns on the bench so.. I have said few times, that this Nantes has good team, with solid buildup, but their problem is in poor attackers. With Nakoulma, we can see things differently.. If his partner would be player as Moukandjo, they could fight for top5 for sure. I just hope that they will be able to hold Rongier in the club after season, as his performances lately are excellent.

Jeremy Mathieu ladies and gentlemen! 

The problem with the Lyon performance is it's one you have said Lorient are capable of for weeks.....you even called the overs and hinted at a Lorient upset but left it alone. Don't make the same mistake again

Oh f... I didn't know that. Without Busquets, this midfield is on level of Leganes. With all respect to players playing in this midfield, including Iniesta and Rakitić, who are amazing midfielders, this midfield is rubbish. Reason is of course in amazing philosophy of Enrique, who ruined the way how Barcelona's midfield worked before.. Just waiting to see exceptional player Andre Gomes in first lineup and Juve to win is must take at odds like this. Everything is actually on Messi today, and probably on Umtiti & Ter Stegen back there. If they will save 4-5 chances, and if Messi will be on his level then they have chances.. but without Busi, I wouldn't put a cent on Barca right now. Build up will be disastrous! We'll probably see Messi going deep to search the ball, which means that he'll be much easier to cover, as 4-5 players will be able to make pressing on him. Exact the same what PSG did on first match. That leads to another "star" player of Barca - Neymar. Will he put a great performance today or not? He'll be covered by the guy who know him very well.. (Alves) which is probably not the best for Ney. 
 
I agree with @Sir Puntalot. Odds on over in Dortmund are rubbish. On the other hand, Jardim is not bad coach tactically. I was reading today different variations, and it might even happen that Raggi will start on left full back, which in my opinion means that their defence line will stay pretty deep, which is actually totally understandable, as you won't let Auba lot of space behind your defenders if you are normal. Both, Sidibe and Mendy might start on the bench, and we'll see him for sure on 2nd leg match, where I think that Monaco will exploit themselves much more. Everyone expecting crazy Monaco tonight, Tuchel said that they will need to score, because Monaco will score for sure. I don't disagree with that, as Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Mbappe, Falcao/Germain are still here, but I am somehow cautious about their style today. Fact is that without Bakayoko in midfield, their key box to box midfielder is out. What does that mean? That means that they won't arrive in opposite box that much and that many times with 7 players (both full backs, 1/2 midfielders, 2 wingers, 2 attackers). As BVB uses to play pretty offensive, I think that Jardim will count more on their individual abilities today. Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Mbappe, Falcao.. all capable to score from nothing.. It was impossible to stay back against City for Monaco,... BVB is not as deadly and quick on wings, having some missing players, etc... Don't forget that gamble is getting bigger and bigger, they are playing for semi finals of CL, so I am really not sure that we'll see both teams going all out attack...
 
Everyone is saying, that Atletico Madrid was lucky as they pick Leicester on draw. I am not sure. Just remember the match against PSV. They cause them more problems than Barcelona. Atletico prefers to play when the opponent is having possession of the ball, but Leicester is far from that. We could even say, that Leicester is kind of English Atletico. Of course tactically far from that, we shouldn't underestimate Simeone's Atletico, but in my opinion.. they are not as big favourites as people think. They always have problems when they need to have the ball, ball movement is pretty slow for them, and they might have problems to go through Leicester's defence. I think that everything will depend on first goal. If Atletico will score, then Leicester will take the ball, because otherwise no one will be in possession  and then things might become cruel to Leicester, as Atletico could fill them.. but if Atleti will have problems to score (as against PSV), than this could be a coin flip battle (remember the post of PSV in last minutes). Both teams strong in aerial duels, both likes to play aggressive,...
 

Oh f... I didn't know that. Without Busquets, this midfield is on level of Leganes. With all respect to players playing in this midfield, including Iniesta and Rakitić, who are amazing midfielders, this midfield is rubbish. Reason is of course in amazing philosophy of Enrique, who ruined the way how Barcelona's midfield worked before.. Just waiting to see exceptional player Andre Gomes in first lineup and Juve to win is must take at odds like this. Everything is actually on Messi today, and probably on Umtiti & Ter Stegen back there. If they will save 4-5 chances, and if Messi will be on his level then they have chances.. but without Busi, I wouldn't put a cent on Barca right now. Build up will be disastrous! We'll probably see Messi going deep to search the ball, which means that he'll be much easier to cover, as 4-5 players will be able to make pressing on him. Exact the same what PSG did on first match. That leads to another "star" player of Barca - Neymar. Will he put a great performance today or not? He'll be covered by the guy who know him very well.. (Alves) which is probably not the best for Ney. 
 
I agree with @Sir Puntalot. Odds on over in Dortmund are rubbish. On the other hand, Jardim is not bad coach tactically. I was reading today different variations, and it might even happen that Raggi will start on left full back, which in my opinion means that their defence line will stay pretty deep, which is actually totally understandable, as you won't let Auba lot of space behind your defenders if you are normal. Both, Sidibe and Mendy might start on the bench, and we'll see him for sure on 2nd leg match, where I think that Monaco will exploit themselves much more. Everyone expecting crazy Monaco tonight, Tuchel said that they will need to score, because Monaco will score for sure. I don't disagree with that, as Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Mbappe, Falcao/Germain are still here, but I am somehow cautious about their style today. Fact is that without Bakayoko in midfield, their key box to box midfielder is out. What does that mean? That means that they won't arrive in opposite box that much and that many times with 7 players (both full backs, 1/2 midfielders, 2 wingers, 2 attackers). As BVB uses to play pretty offensive, I think that Jardim will count more on their individual abilities today. Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Mbappe, Falcao.. all capable to score from nothing.. It was impossible to stay back against City for Monaco,... BVB is not as deadly and quick on wings, having some missing players, etc... Don't forget that gamble is getting bigger and bigger, they are playing for semi finals of CL, so I am really not sure that we'll see both teams going all out attack...
 
Everyone is saying, that Atletico Madrid was lucky as they pick Leicester on draw. I am not sure. Just remember the match against PSV. They cause them more problems than Barcelona. Atletico prefers to play when the opponent is having possession of the ball, but Leicester is far from that. We could even say, that Leicester is kind of English Atletico. Of course tactically far from that, we shouldn't underestimate Simeone's Atletico, but in my opinion.. they are not as big favourites as people think. They always have problems when they need to have the ball, ball movement is pretty slow for them, and they might have problems to go through Leicester's defence. I think that everything will depend on first goal. If Atletico will score, then Leicester will take the ball, because otherwise no one will be in possession  and then things might become cruel to Leicester, as Atletico could fill them.. but if Atleti will have problems to score (as against PSV), than this could be a coin flip battle (remember the post of PSV in last minutes). Both teams strong in aerial duels, both likes to play aggressive,...
 

Dortmund v Monaco

The over 2.5 goals is the obvious choice here, but 1.44? I'd rather stick my head in a blender, after all it's not guaranteed. I think the Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.90 BetVictor is well worth considering, because I don't see Monaco going to Dortmund and piling on an all out attack, you can easily get killed in Dortmund doing that.
However, I'll go for the slightly safer bet of Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 (4/5) @ Skybet  

I've been following your blog closely Pep and been aware of your profit rate.
Tremendous.  

Let me publish my recent stats in Ligue 1. It has been amazing season so far! 

I am going with Las Palmas win today. Las Palmas played on Thursday, which means that they had 2 days less to prepare on Betis, and that's probably the reason why odds are here where they are, but I am counting on motivation fact here. Las Palmas is playing totally differently on their stadium in front of their supporters, they have all important players available, Lemos seems to be in superb form while offensive trio Tana-Boateng-Jese started on the bench in Eibar. Las Palmas will hold the ball, they will be in possession for sure, and while Betis offensive part is highly relying on Ceballos and Castro, there is much more players, individually capable to make a difference in Las Palmas.  Whole analysis here!

My first shot is known for a few days.. Monaco to win in Angers! "Lots of people are thinking in the way, Angers have won against Bordeaux in cup, that will motivate them, etc. I am not in this group of people. My way of thinking is, that Angers, who is not used to play 3 matches in a week, will have one day less for rest and to prepare on next match (Monaco played against Lille one day earlier). And besides that, Jardim rested half of squad, so they are coming in the match much more fresh. It's true that Champions League match is in front of them on Tuesday, but for example before both matches against Manchester City, they played with maybe one or two changes, nothing more. Change means that one of trio Mbappe, Falcao and Germain starts on the bench or that one of trio Fabinho, Moutinho or Bakayoko starts on the bench, or that one of trio Mendy, Sidibe, Toure starts on the bench. All of them are high quality players, and Angers can only dream about players like that. As Sidibe said on one of press conferences recently, this is the year when everyone feels that they can reach something special. First goal of this team is to win the league, and then everything else." Whole analysis here!

And my second one is going against Bastia. 2Dijon might have problems with Maximine, but not as big as Bastia will have with both Tavares and Diony. Bastia is pretty weak when it comes to defending crosses, and if Marquinhos and Thiago Silva were unable to cover Tavares, than Bastia won't succeed neither. Dijon knows how to play well-organised on matches like this and I believe that they will win and open the exit doors of Ligue 1 for Bastia." Whole analysis here!

My first shot is known for a few days.. Monaco to win in Angers! "Lots of people are thinking in the way, Angers have won against Bordeaux in cup, that will motivate them, etc. I am not in this group of people. My way of thinking is, that Angers, who is not used to play 3 matches in a week, will have one day less for rest and to prepare on next match (Monaco played against Lille one day earlier). And besides that, Jardim rested half of squad, so they are coming in the match much more fresh. It's true that Champions League match is in front of them on Tuesday, but for example before both matches against Manchester City, they played with maybe one or two changes, nothing more. Change means that one of trio Mbappe, Falcao and Germain starts on the bench or that one of trio Fabinho, Moutinho or Bakayoko starts on the bench, or that one of trio Mendy, Sidibe, Toure starts on the bench. All of them are high quality players, and Angers can only dream about players like that. As Sidibe said on one of press conferences recently, this is the year when everyone feels that they can reach something special. First goal of this team is to win the league, and then everything else." Whole analysis here!

Hahaha, I am coming just to say cheers and to throw a bone.  Besides.. great stuff @andrewcalo.  
Otherwise this league is still tough to watch for me. Seeing league leaders playing football with 9 players in the box, trying with 3-4 counters in 90 minutes, wingers are playing as wing backs, is making me cry. That's not for me, and I sincerely hope that football won't move into this direction, because I will start watching volleyball in this case.   Well, I don't like that, but some of you guys do, and it looks that it works in PL. But as long as it works, I won't try to be smart with some analysis, because it's more clear than anywhere, that you don't need the ball to win the match (and the league). Are stats of Chelsea and last year Leicester much different? 
For me, league is still overrated. Squad of Man. City is disaster, key arrivals are injured, while 90% of players are above 30 years. I don't know what is Guardiola thinking, but it's obviously in football (for me) that you cannot change 80% of first eleven in one season, and City needs exactly that. Except 4-5 players, all others are "rubbish". There is too many second choice players. On the other hand United is relying on 36-year old player, and it looks that Mou wants him to extend contract for one year, which is another "stupid" move for me. My favourite team here is Tottenham. I hope that they will win the league. They should have done it already in last season... 
 
Well.. I guess, that I don't understand this league, and that's all.  Peace out! 

He received 3 yellows on last 4 matches.. yeah, those pages.. I have learned lection about "check missing players by yourself" already.  

Match of Angers at home is like throwing a dice. They could look totally uninterested, but then voila.. one cross or free kick or simply one screamer from 30m. They are unpredictable as hell. All in all I agree with your point, but as unpredictable as they are.. I don't know. Honestly, I expected much much more from them today... I don't know, maybe we are simply that good.  

Allez Nantes! 
Came home too late, so I finished round with 2 wins and 1 half lost pick (Guingamp -0,5, Lorient tt over 1,25 and Nantes-Angers over) . Angers was reaaaally really poor today. They have no chance against Monaco next week.
p.s. What the hell is happening to Montpellier!? 

I am going with goals on derby between Nantes and Angers. I think that we will see open match. Temperature is ideal, almost windless, and pitch is well prepared, so conditions for the match are perfect. Moulin was talking highly about Nantes. Saying that they mastered 4-4-2, that they remind him on Monaco, with 2 strong, well organised midfielders Rongier and Gillet, and full backs and wings always making pressure on the opponent. Both teams had 15 days to prepare on the match, and I believe that they were more focused on that how to take advantage, not how to defend. Whole analysis here!

Having a few of them written down, but I haven't analyse them yet. From the list: Guingamp -0,5, Marseille - Dijon btts, Lyon -0,5, Lorient - Caen -0,5/over 2,5, Montpellier - Toulouse over 2,5, Nantes -0,5, Nice-Bordeaux over 2,5...

I wasn't sure about Neymar up to now as looking at the from the typically 'English' style of football I thought he couldn't cope with a well organised physical defence but he is an expert at getting free kicks in dangerous areas and his delivery from set pieces and free kicks is incredible. I was looking at the system Brazil were playing and trying to come up with an effective counter strategy and I couldn't. They have too many weapons in their arsenal and they can come at you from any angle and can switch the play in a heartbeat.
Their defenders are very impressive and you can't get at them often with direct play and they are very good at defending set pieces. Every time Neymar got the ball last night a Paraguay defender took him out immediately, Couthinho was getting elbowed in the head, the fouls were done strategically closer to the halfway line than the box and Brazil still found a way to dominate the game and win 3-0 and isolate the Paraguay attackers quickly when they managed to start a counter.
Genuinely in awe, we will get to see a golden generation again. I'm less and less convinced with Firmino as he looks impressive but the end product is not there as often as I would like for a top class Brazilian international but there are options elsewhere. I'm excited to see what Gabriel Jesus can do if he gets an extended run in the Man City team.

@Pep004 Jeeeesus, get yourself an Instagram, Pinterest and Snapchat as well!  

I agree with both of you @andrewcalo and @Simeon Borisof.. there is value on away sides for sure. For Wales I took +0,25 (Whole analysis here!) while I am still considering about the best choice for Netherland. For now I am pretty close to AH -1. But we have time, as I think that odds won't go anywhere. 
p.s. There is nothing to wait.. Going with Oranje -1 as well. (Whole analysis here)
 

Monaco will find it easier to score goals v Dortmund than City. I'll take Moncao to qualify at 2.50 right now.

You need to know, that when Manchester City connects things in buildup, they are dangerous as hell. They can beat everyone, but in first half, they were simply lost. There was no connection between the defensive line and midfield, Fernandinho was there just to run and Baka & Fabinho looked like two Gods on the pitch, winning all the duels, winning all the 2nd balls, Silva and de Bruyne were totally erased from the pitch. Aguero was trying, while Sane and Sterling didn't even came into positions where they could take advantage of speed.. while they were 1on1 with Mendy or Sidibe, there was no space and as they are physically much stronger than Sane and Rash, it was impossible to break them. They are something similar to Rose&Walker duel, even if I think that S&M are even smarter, and tactically better, but well that's just my personal opinion.
In second, when those through balls started working for City, when Sane and Rash received good balls behind the defence, I thought ok, poor Monaco.. that's it. Aguero missed 2-3 chances which he is not missing normally and City is out. On the other hand I can not lose the feeling, that Rash is incapable of scoring. Can he improve? Maybe, he's young, but for player like him.. ability to score is important and should be less nervous in front of goal. But well.. when it looked that City is closer to 2-2 than 3-1, Timo scored and it was enough. 
I am so happy for Monaco. Even if I really like to see the way how City plays (2nd half), I just love this Monaco and I really think that they can surprise this year. Except Bayern maybe, I think that no one is capable to destroy them. Real and Barcelona are not on deadly level (yet), Atletico will suffer against Monaco for sure,.. Shakespeare can only pray that they won't get Monaco. Can not wait the draw.
p.s. I just hope, that Monaco is still focused on Ligue 1. You need to be lucky in Champions league, that's for sure.