andrewcalo
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Posts posted by andrewcalo
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I too will work on Saturday. I am probably going to watch Burnley game Saturday and on Monday I will watch the Liverpool game against Swansea, which looks full of promise.
What do you plan to do on Tuesday?
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@teddybear3011 do you have any plans for this weekend?
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FA cup third round replay results
2012 2h 2d 1a
2013 4h 1d 1a
2014 4h 3d 4a
2014 5h 1d 3a
2015 4h 2d 1a
2016 6h 2d 2a
2017 5h 0d 4a
As y'all can see, we only dropped below the four home wins when there were only 5 replays to play.
I think 2 more home wins and a draw tonight, guv.
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@allthethings any chance you can have a look at the Norwich game? Got me a funny feeling in my left ball.
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8 hours ago, Neubs said:
Why you think Swansea will win? Read that Carvahal said that he will rotate his squad and the Main Priority is the Premier League. So i think Swansea will rotate heavy and Wolves are with maybe the best Line-Up? Also bad H2H for Swansea against Wolves. Only advantage i see here is the Home Advantage and the fact that after the Game Swansea have 2 more Day´s to rest.
We almost won it last time, and would have if the blind ref hadn't sent our man off (red card was later rescinded).
Don't pay to much attention to the press conference in this case - Carvalhal is rotating the squad because he's a new manager trying to get a fix on a first team he likes.
I said at least a draw last time so I'm on that again.
And the Liberty Stadium is not an easy place to get a result on a cold South Wales night.
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So taking into account all things, I am putting this ACCA down:
Swansea
Wigan
Cardiff
Stevenage +1
Shrewsbury +1
Carlisle +1
Courtesy of @betcatalog
Marseille and O 2.5
Nice Monaco BTTS
Total odds 675. Worth a quid.
Of course there might be more than 4 home wins, and that mucks it up for us, but this is kind of the logic behind big ACCa betting - you are taking a huge risk anyway. Might as well stake your hand on some consistent system and the risk will land once every while.
ATM it is landing for me once a month lol.
- betcatalog and StevieDay1983
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I'm looking for patterns, variations on the norm, and the likelihood of a return to normal - for instance, we can say with some certainty that there will be at least 4 home wins, just because that's the norm over the last four years.
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I am settled on 4 home, 2 draws, 2 away
HOME
Leicester
Chelsea
Swansea
Wigan
DRAW
West Ham v Shrewsbury
Reading v Stevenage
AWAY
Cardiff
Carlisle
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FA cup third round replay results
2014 5h 1d 3a
2015 4h 2d 1a
2016 6h 2d 2a
2017 5h 0d 4a
This suggests on averages alone that we will see 4 home, 1 draw, 3 away.
Though you have to take into account swings away from the average that must right themselves.
I would say we are looking at 4-5 home wins, 1-2 draws, and 2 aways.
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Ah I see, right.
I am coming back with an ACCA now. Well, in 30 minutes.
I did very well on the Bristol c Man U game, as you know, what I did not broadcast is that on the Sunday of the round of 32 I made £540 on a £5 bet and could have made £1700 had I not cashed out. Proof below.
I am studying homes draws aways and will use this info to assess too. coming back with my findings shortly.
p.s. I used your stats to guess the outcomes of those three FA Cup fixtures, along with the fact that we were way down on the average number of home wins for this Sunday. Last three years have seen double digit home wins, 11, 12, 12, and we were on 7 or 8 by then. So there had to be more home wins then jsut Tottenham and possible Brighton. Then I just had to use this together with your stats, and I too ka guess that Leeds would muck up again, and Shrewsbury would shine and hold West Ham.
Forest was the one I was particularly concerned about, however I got lucky with the crap team Wenger put out.
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4 minutes ago, allthethings said:
Finally, Fleetwood, currently 11.71 (I use BetExplorer for averaged odds, by the way). All dogs in the replay of greater than 10.00 have gone 0-2-16, 0-1-3 in the round of 32. Make the group bigger: Dogs of greater than 8.00 have gone 2-4-31 in the replay, 0-2-6 in the round of 32.
No more? Are you including Carlisle as a team similar to Shrewsbury then?
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Thanks @StevieDay1983
@allthethings fyi: I follow tipsters and one of them I have been keeping an eye on is due a win by now on his tips for English leagues - and tonight he is on Carlisle +1.5 He thinks it will be a very close game.
Carlisle to qualify fits your pattern.
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@StevieDay1983 what about injuries?
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@allthethings any thoughts on tonights games?
I can't see Leicester losing. West Ham look okay too.
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Each team over 1 corner in each half - 6.0
That cannot be right?
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@StevieDay1983 just saw Cardiff were 2-0 up and first thing I thought was 'Sunderland must have been red carded' hahaha
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37 minutes ago, neilovan said:
To me , the fixtures this week (apart from the Liverpool v Man City game), are a hand grenade.
Three big teams at ridiculously low odds. Chelsea, Tottenham and Man United. The biggest odds on offer (1.32) for the home win, are lousy. The implied probability (for the win) is around 75% for each of these games. Leicester are capable of surprising Chelsea, while Stoke and Everton will play an 11 man defense and hope for a break away or set piece goal. Not a place for the smart money !
The other games are a lottery, which is suggested by the price. Can you really pick a winner (with confidence) between Crystal Palace and Burnley, Huddersfield and West Ham, WBA and Brighton or Watford v Southampton. My feeling is NO. These teams are so inconsistent, and totally unpredictable. Is there any team closer to Watford in blowing games, and throwing wins away?
Crystal Palace are even money to beat Burnley . Really ! What nonsense. Burnley have lost 2 away league games this season (Leicester and Man City). I would'nt touch Palace with a 10 ft pole here.Just a week for leaving the cash in the wallet !
If I had to bet on something, I would take Southampton to beat Watford away for 2 main reasons.
1) Saints away record has been proo, but no team in the EPL has had a tougher away schedule last 5 games.
2) Watford are just a crazy team. They are liable to blow them selves up at any moment, have a guy sent off, or just collapse. No team in the EPL has squandered a lead more than them ...
Good post here. Burnley look a safe bet. Southampton due a win and desperate too . but I will leave them alone.
If we haven't got a clue, neither do the bookies ... a real chance to hit high odds in an ACCA if you're lucky and shrewd...
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@FCNA let us know your thoughts cock. I like Lyon to win, Troyes game BTTS no! And Rennes V Marseille U 2.5.
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Vardy will be back in time.
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I like Leicester, Burnley AND Bournemouth all for wins. Crazy I know but my system says only a couple of draws AT MOST this week and I think it is most likely that Huddersfield West Ham will draw.
I don't fancy Swansea away to Newcastle. I just don't think we can win. Instinct more than anything. But I have been proven wrong when that happens before now.
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Well this is going to give me nightmares for the next year ... creepy, and also uncanny...
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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Yeah, I'm not convinced Chelsea will field a full strength team tonight though. Leicester are hit and miss at the moment. I wouldn't back them to beat anyone but, at the same time, I wouldn't back anybody to beat them either! I think Chelsea should win that one at home. It'll be tight but a 1-0 or 2-1 win should do it.
You support Cardiff what would you know about football? lol
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Is there a time and a place for it? Or does it give teams/players an unfair advantage?
Premier League Predictions > Jan 13th - 15th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
p.s. do you know of any fixed matches in Iran?