mearl

So we finally reach the last day of the regular season. It was nice to get a profit on Monday with Weston, Dover and Dorking all landing at big odds. This season has been very up and down although still be a decent enough season. The ante-post stuff will show a nice profit and we are basically waiting on who wins the Evo-Stik Southern Premier as Weymouth and Taunton were both covered. I really need it to be Weymouth to help land a lumpy mid-season acca I put on (although Farsley aren't home and hosed yet either), but at least I have Taunton covered. Hopefully it can be a profitable end of the season on the match betting front where I have some big prices again.
AFC Fylde v Halifax
It doesn't really matter if Fylde come 4th or 5th and I reckon they might rest a few players in this match with the play-off matches coming thick and fast next week. They are guaranteed a home tie in the first round of matches and will be away in the next tie if they get through anyway so with that in mind Halifax are worth a bet here at 11/2. They beat Wrexham 2-1 on Easter Monday who are the team in 5th at the moment so there is no reason why they can't repeat the same sort of performance here.
Boreham Wood v Eastleigh
The home side gave it a good go at Chesterfield for us on Monday, but ended up going down 3-2 after having a man sent off. Eastleigh made sure of their play-off spot by beating Maidenhead and like Fylde it doesn't really matter if they finish 6th or 7th because they will be away in both the possible games anyway and I can imagine that they will rest key players. This gives Wood a chance especially as they have performed well in recent weeks so are worth backing at just over 2/1.
Bromley v Ebbsfleet
God knows what is happening behind the scenes at Ebbsfleet, but the players still haven't been paid and it is hard to see how they are going to be overly motivated to put in a performance here for a club that is in a right mess off the pitch. The loss to Dover on Monday meant they can no longer finish in the play-offs so there really is nothing to play for and they were poor in that game as it was. Bromley have drawn 3 of their last 4 so still seem to be trying and they beat Leyton Orient 5 games ago. They should be favs for this and 7/4 looks a huge price.
Hartlepool v Salford
Taking a bit of a chance here, but I am backing the home side. I just wonder if Salford will decide to concentrate on the play-offs given they are highly unlikely to catch Leyton Orient. If Orient go in front early on then Salford will know their number is really up and they wont want to be risking injuries ahead of the play-offs. Hartlepool aren't exactly ending the season in great form but they did beat Halifax on Good Friday. Team news could be key, but it might just pay to be ahead of the game here and have a small investment at a big price in the hope Salford have one eye on the play-offs.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
Not that long ago Spennymoor were in poor form, but they have won 4 of their last 5 games and are setting themselves up nicely for the play-offs. They got a huge win against at the time league leaders Chorley on Easter Monday and they will be trying here as if they can overtake Brackley then they will have one less game in the play-offs. As I have mentioned a few times of late Curzon have stopped for the season based on their performances and odds against on the away side picking up another win is a big price.
Eastbourne v Concord
I really don't get the price of Concord here. I think the bookies are basing it on the fact they are basically certain of a play-off spot, but what they have missed is the fact that they can finish 4th or 5th and that would mean a home tie in the first round of the play-offs. Given how strong they have been at home this season that would be huge if they could overtake Bath and or Chelmsford. God knows where Eastbourne's 6-0 drubbing of Dartford came from given it had been a very long time since they last won prior to that. They then drew with Slough 1-1 on Monday which was a decent effort as well. They are safe now though and with Concord still having something to play for they just should be 9/2.
Woking v Gloucester City
I suspect if Gloucester had not come from 2 down to beat Chippenham 3-2 on Monday then Gloucester would not have been such a big price for this because they still would have been fighting for their survival. Fortunately for me and my fellow City supporters we are now safe for another season, but I think we can go out on a win. Our away form has been much stronger than our home form this term, but the key point is that Woking have nothing to play for. They can only finish 2nd now and I really can't believe that they won't be resting players ahead of the play-offs. Why would Alan Dowson risk his key players in a meaningless game a few days ahead of trying to win promotion? 21/5 looks a big price on an away win to me.
Halifax 1pt @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Bromley 2pts @ 7/4 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/4 with BetVictor
Spennymoor 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Betfred
Gloucester 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor

What a start to 2019 that was. Chesham getting that 90th minute winner was a hell of result to go with Woking, Ebbsfleet, Stockport and Kings Langley. Hopefully it carries on being this good and I will certainly take 3 profitable days out of 4 over Christmas and New Year.

Macclesfield v Dover
Must admit I am not sure why this game takes place on Friday night, but hopefully it can give me a good start to the weekend. My tip for Dover to go down is already looking pretty bad given their strong start to the season. Their only defeat so far came against Bromley when in fact they were by far the better team and should really have won rather than suffering a 2-1 defeat. They got a solid draw against Barrow last Saturday and they look over priced to beat a Macclesfield side who look pretty average so far this season. Their only win so far came against Wrexham on the first day of the season, but they were fortunate to pick up the 3 points that day. Since then they have drawn at home to Hartlepool and Bromley before conceding two late goals against Sutton and then being well beaten 3-0 by Gateshead last weekend. Dover have looked the better side of the two so far and William Hill’s 11/5 looks too big.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Bromley
When John Still won the league with Luton he set them up to be very hard to score goals against in the early part of the season. It worked well although they scored very few, but he then worked on that once they were solid defensively. It is then surprising to see how bad Dagenham have defended so far this season. They have conceded in every game so far including two 2-2 draws and a 3-3 draw. At the other end, as those 3 results show, they don’t have any issues either and given their other 2 results were 2-1 victories that obviously means they have scored at least twice in all 5 matches so far this season. To be fair to Bromley they have only conceded twice this season, but that was against teams who haven’t exactly been prolific in their other games this season and I think they will find it much harder to keep Dagenham out. Bromley have scored 10 goals so far and although 6 did come against Lincoln it does show they have goals in them and they are sure to get a few chances against Dagenham’s dodgy defence. The bet I like here is for there to be over 2.5 goals and both teams to score which is even money with Coral and Stan James. That bet will have won in every Dagenham game this season.
Hartlepool v AFC Fylde
Two sides who have yet to win this season, but the away team have looked the better side to me. In my ante-post preview I was concerned about Hartlepool’s choice of manager and I really do think his lack of knowledge when it comes to this league has been a big issue as to why they have only 2 points on the board. I also talked about how Padraig Almond was going to be a key player for them and he left for Newport this week. That is a big blow for them especially as they have only scored 3 goals so far this season. Amazingly Fylde have drawn 4 of their 5 games so far with the only blip the 4-1 defeat to Maidenhead when Dave Tarpey scored all 4 goals. The last two Saturday’s they have conceded 90th minute equalizers and they aren’t far away from getting that crucial win. They have conceded 12 goals so far, but given Hartlepool’s lack of fire power hopefully that shouldn’t be too much of a concern and they do have goals in them so even if Hartlepool did manage 1 I would still be pretty hopeful Fylde could score at least 2. Marathon have them a shade bigger than 5/2 and that looks huge. They are my Nap of the day.
Tranmere v Boreham Wood
It is hard to know what has gone wrong so far this season for Tranmere and although it is early stages I am worried about my ante-post bet on them. They have only won once so far and that 3-1 victory over Woking are the only goals they have scored so far. That is a big concern as they should really be a team full of goals. On paper they also had a pretty easy start to the season so the fact they have only picked up 5 points is disappointing. Obviously for ante-post reasons I hope they can get 3 points on Saturday, but I have to back Boreham Wood here at 23/5 with Marathon. Wood certainly have had no issues with scoring goals and they are the leagues joint top scorers on 13 with Aldershot, who they beat 2-1 last Saturday. There may have been a bit of fortune in both their goals, but they were the better team and deserved the win. I would still have Tranmere as favourites for this game, but there is no way that Wood should be that big given the current form of both sides and they are worth a bet.
Hungerford v Gloucester City
My team Gloucester have had a very slow start to the season and only had a point on the board prior to a really good 1-0 win over Hemel last Saturday. That was a much improved performance and hopefully that will kick start Gloucester’s season. On the back of that I can’t really understand why Marathon have an away win priced up at 100/30 especially as Hungerford have the same points tally as City. Hungerford picked up their 4 points in their first two games and have lost their following 3. They also lost their manager last weekend who resigned after the Welling game saying he had already made up his mind to leave and then a couple of days later ended up as Wealdstone manager despite the fact he said in a statement that he was going to take a break! Why he just couldn’t have been honest I don’t know, but he has also taking his coaching team with him which has left two senior players in charge at Hungerford. That has to have had some sort of affect on the players and although they should still be favs these two sides should be much closer in the betting.
Dorking Wanderers v Staines Town
Staines have made a really good start to the season. They played well at Dulwich in their opener when getting a 1-1 draw and then they have scored 11 without reply when beating Tooting 6-0 and Kingstonian 5-0. Promoted Dorking did win their only home game 4-1 against Met Police, but they have lost their other two games and this looks their toughest test yet. I certainly am not saying Staines are going to score in big numbers again, but after such a promising start to the season they should be capable of picking up three more points. BetVictor are biggest at 11/8.

Maidstone v Aldershot
I think Maidstone are going to find it very hard to stay in the division and for the first time they have now dropped into the relegation zone. They have only picked up 2 wins in their last 10 league games with only 1 draw to go with it. They were poor again last Saturday when losing 2-0 to Solihull and they just haven't been making their 3g pitch count in the same way Sutton have. Granted Aldershot's away form is slightly worrying as they have only won 3 times, drawn 6 and lost 6, but this is just the sort of game they need to be winning if they are going to break into the top 5. They drew with an improved York side last weekend and on paper this game looks easier. I think there is just enough in the price (5/4 various) to want to get involved.
 
Nuneaton v York
Speaking of York they look worth a bet in the FA Trophy this weekend. Although staying up is obviously the priority, they might also take in a Wembley trip for a competition they won in 2012. As I mentioned above they have a new look side that looks pretty strong now and after beating Barrow they deserved to beat Aldershot last Saturday. If they carry on with those performances here then they should win this. Nuneaton did us a nice turn in the previous round when thumping Guiseley, but since then they have suffered two 4-0 defeats and it seems the honeymoon is over for Tommy Wright. Marathon go 33/20 about an away win and that is worth taking.
 
Sutton v Boreham Wood
I thought Sutton were superb against Leeds on Sunday and full deserved to win the match. It was also great to see them get such a big tie, but they have no chance of reaching Wembley in the FA Cup whereas they could easily reach the final of the FA Trophy. I have often written about their superb home form this season and the victory over Leeds backed that up. Here they host a Boreham Wood side who have not been performing well on the road. Their only win in their last 7 away games came at a struggling Torquay and a draw at Eastleigh was their only other point. I think that Leeds win will have a positive effect and I fancy them to win this. Marathon go 6/5 about a home win.
 
Treble
I wanted to oppose Whitehawk again this weekend. They may have got a new manager, but he will have his work cut out to sort out a side so low on confidence especially as they go to bang in form Dartford. Dartford are 3rd in the table and have won four of their last five games. There is probably scope for saying the price they are is value, but at just over 1/2 I would rather put them in a treble. Needless to say top of the table Blyth should be beating Ilkeston and so they go into the treble. The final team are Merthyr Town who are unbeaten in their last 9 matches, winning 7 of them. They go to a Dorchester side who have looked pretty poor for most of the season. The treble pays 2.4/1 with Marathon.

Hungerford win 3-1 to land the 2nd max bet of the month.

Truro v Forest Green

I was surprised by Mark Cooper deciding to play a full strength team on Saturday, especially after playing them in that friendly I mentioned against Evesham last Tuesday. Even so they struggled to see off Truro, indeed Truro could easily have won the match late on, which would have been nice given we were on at 9/1. It’s hard to know if Cooper will continue with the first teamers on Tuesday as to me making them travel all the way to Truro doesn’t seem the best preparation ahead of a busy Christmas period. Whatever happens Truro shouldn’t be 6/1 shots at home given Saturday’s draw should prove that they can get a result against them and they are worth backing again.


 
Woking v Ebbsfleet

Ebbsfleet needed an own goal to get a replay against Woking in what wasn’t the greatest of games. Having said that Ebbsfleet definitely have the better squad and the addition of Andy Dury from Eastleigh had a positive effect as he got the man of the match award. In my view if these two teams were in the same division Ebbsfleet would be comfortably above Woking which makes their price of 23/10 (Marathon) look on the large side in my view.


 
Ilkeston v Stafford

There has already been a market move on Stafford which is fairly unusual for an Evo-Stik Premier League game, unless some major news has come out. Regular readers will know I pin pointed Ilkeston a couple of weeks ago and although they got a draw against Witton we did collect when Grantham beat them. I didn’t oppose them at the weekend as they played Frickley who are pretty bad themselves and had been exceptionally bad in their previous game. They went on to beat Ilkeston 4-0 however and although Ilkeston played most of the game with 10 men and ended up with 9, I think it was more proof they are going to continue to struggle to get points. Stafford are in really good form at the moment and are better than their current league position suggests. They are unbeaten in 7 league games, having won 5 of them and they pushed National League North side Chorley close last week in the FA Trophy. They didn’t have a game on Saturday so come into this game much fresher than their opponents. As I write this even money is available in a place, but I would be happy to take odds on as well. They are 5-2 on the -1 handicap also and they should cover that too.

 

Alfreton v North Ferriby

The big problem for North Ferriby this season has been scoring and although Alfreton have really struggled defensively having conceded a massive 52 in the National League North this season, I just wonder if North Ferriby are going to have the capability of taking full advantage. Granted this defence will be easier than the ones they face week in week out, but they have missed some great chances this season. With that in mind I think it is worth chancing the home side at Marathon's 21/10 because even if North Ferriby do manage to find the net the home side can score goals. They have managed to find the net 41 times in the league and with that in mind I think they have a great chance of outscoring North Ferriby.


 
Forest Green v Truro

I love taking on the leading National League sides in the  FA Trophy as it has landed some big odds over the years. Most top National League sides want out of the competition as their focus is on promotion to the Football League so they often rest players. Mark Cooper hasn't really said what sort of team he is going to put out here, but what I found interesting was that they played a friendly against Evesham on Tuesday where they put out a full strength side. Now I could be wrong, but I get the feeling he did that because he wanted to keep his 1st team ticking over in a meaningless game ahead of their next league match and instead play a weakened side in this game. Truro had hit a bit of form, but were beaten by bottom side Bishops Stortford last week which was a poor effort. If they bring their best to Gloucestershire though I think that will give them a real chance of beating Forest Green especially if they do indeed play the reserves. At 9/1 with Betfair they are worth a punt


 
Harlow v Eastleigh

One manager who has confirmed he is playing the reserves on Saturday is Martin Allen. When he was at Barnet he did exactly the same so it is no surprise to see him do it again. Even so given Harlow are a pretty average Ryman Premier side I still wasn't sure the price was value, but at Marathon's 69/20 I do think it is worth a chance. Allen will no doubt be resting his players with a view to Tuesday's FA Cup replay. To be fair to Harlow they are in good form and have won 7 of their 9 league games at home so they clearly play well their and they should be in with a real chance of causing an upset.


 
York v Worcester

Fair play to York they nearly managed to get a great point at Tranmere last Saturday, but they couldn't quite see it out and conceded an injury time winner. They have strengthened a little and Gary Mills will be doing all he can to get them the right side of the relegation line. I am not sure he will really want the distraction of the FA Trophy and the other thing to bare in mind is that it is all very well putting on a performance at the biggest club in the division, but can they repeat that against a National League North side? It always worries me when a club go so long without winning and although Worcester have been inconsistent this term they have at least been winning football matches recently and they performed with credit when losing 2-1 to Fylde last weekend. I am sure Worcester will fancy their chances of causing and upset and Marathon's 47/10 is well worth taking.


 
Ashton v Stourbridge

I am struggling to work out why Stourbridge are such a big price to gain the three points here. I can only imagine it is because they have their FA Cup game on Tuesday with Northampton, but their FA Cup run hasn't stopped their league form so far. Indeed if anything it has improved it as they have won 4 of their last 5 league games and the other one was a good draw against Spennymoor. Granted they have only beaten Corby in their last 6 away matches, but they have only lost once as well and Ashton's home form isn't as good as their away form has they lost 5 at home compared to 2 away. Ashton are towards the wrong end of the form table as well having picked up just 7 points in their last 6 and conceding 15 in the process. Stourbridge are also ahead of Ashton on goal difference and they have played 4 games less so the 14/5 BetVictor go about an away looks rather big and I make them the Nap's of the weekend.

some good winners last night..look forward on saturday..cheers

any info why merstham's price has moved to 1.75?
I will go for worthing double chance,firstly merstham hasn't yet won away and also the price is no more worth.
I fancy nantwich,coalville and potters(cover on DNB).

Forest Green Rovers v Gateshead
It hasn’t been a good start for the National League ante-post favourites and not surprisingly they have drifted out after only picking up one point in their first two games. They were pretty poor in their opener at Boreham Wood and it seems they weren’t much better against Sutton on Tuesday. It seems the formation that Mark Cooper is using isn’t working at the moment and his players are struggling to get used to it. Cooper seems under pressure already as he snapped at a local journalist after Tuesday’s night game. There is still a long way to go to turn things around, but backers must be concerned by the start. It could get worse as well as they host a Gateshead side who have made a superb start to the season. Granted Chester and Southport are unlikely to be finishing the season in the top half of the table, but to beat both 3-0 is a decent effort. On paper this should be a tougher game, but on the basis of the first two matches Gateshead shouldn’t be 31/10 (Marathon) shots and they will fancy their chances of making it 3 from 3. They have to be backed at that price.

Guiseley v Dagenham & Redbridge
As I mention above for Dagenham to go from an impressive 3-0 victory on Saturday to losing 3-0 to Chester on Tuesday was rather surprising. Obviously we have limited evidence, but I just wonder if a young Dagenham side might perform better at home than away this season. I think they are probably just about the right favourites here, but I think Guiseley are value at 12/5 (Marathon). Guiseley are yet to pick up a point, but they have had two tough games to start with and have performed with credit in defeats to Eastleigh and Wrexham who scored a very late winner. They look to have a better side than last season and they have a fair chance of surviving. If they continue to put in the performances they have in their first couple of games then they will be winning sooner rather than later and it is worth betting they do it on Saturday.

York City v Boreham Wood
Not only did Boreham Wood beat Forest Green in their opening game of the season, but they then went to Dover and beat them 4-1 on Tuesday night. Granted Dover went down to ten men when they were still 1 up, but even so that is still an impressive effort from Boreham Wood. I opposed York on Tuesday and they did manage to beat Macclesfield 1-0 in the end. The goal was rather fortunate though and I am still unconvinced they are going to be much of a force in this division this season. Whatever way you look at it though a price of 29/10 (Marathon) on an away win looks too big on the basis of Wood’s first two performances.

Alfreton v Curzon Ashton
Four of my bets are priced over 2/1 this weekend, but the Naps will be Alfreton who are 5/6 with Betway. Curzon have conceded 10 goals in their opening two games which is rather worrying. First up Kidderminster put 6 past them on the opening day of the season and then on Wednesday night they drew 4-4 with Bradford Park Avenue. Clearly they have defensive issues at the moment and given Alfreton have scored 7 goals in their first two matches, it looks ripe for them to add to that tally on Saturday. Now they did lose 4-3 to Stockport on Saturday, but they beat Gainsborough 4-0 on Tuesday night. Given the way these two teams have started you would expect Alfreton to add to their 7 goals and that should be enough to win the match.

Bradford Park Avenue v Nuneaton
Bradford have started their season with two draws and as mentioned above they shared 8 goals with Curzon on Wednesday night. That might have taken a bit out of them and it could be crucial that Nuneaton didn’t have a game in mid-week. They lost their first match 3-2 to Halifax and it was a bit worrying that they gifted Halifax a couple of goals, but Halifax are the favourites to win the league and Bradford will be lucky to get into the top half. Nuneaton should be capable of being in the play-off hunt again and I am surprised Marathon have gone 11/5 for them to win this. Given the next biggest price is 15/8, they are also out on a limb. I would still be tempted by 15/8 so the 11/5 has to be worth a punt