adastra

I really did not expect Sinner to be this stupid. Well, maybe behind the scenes Djokovic offered him free coaching after his retirement (or something similar) if he manages to win...

Even assuming equal motivation, 3.0 would still be decent odds for Rune against Sinner. Rune isn't really injured anymore and likes indoor hard. Also, Djokovic was actually slightly better vs Sinner and Rune was just slightly worse against Djokovic. And let's be real here: Sinner probably wants to maximize his chances of winning the title and Djokovic is the most difficult player to beat here (with Medvedev clearly being #2, ahead of the rest of the field), especially in the final. Maybe even many Italian fans would prefer Sinner losing tonight, could be funny scenes if it does happen. I don't expect Sinner doing an obvious tank, but playing with a bit less energy and accuracy/focus increases his chances of losing by a lot in a sport of such small margins.

3.70 are terrible odds for this. Just by using the Betfair Exchange, multiplying all odds would lead to a value which is about 9 % higher (and there might be better odds available on specific bookmakers, sometimes). Let me explain... The individual available odds right now (I know that some of the lines might have change a little, but let's ignore this here) are: 1.44 (Tiafoe), 1.54 (Muchova), 1.43 (Medvedev), 1.30 (Sabalenka). For each value, due to the fee for winning bets, we need to apply the simple operation 1 + (odds - 1)* 0.98, leading to 1.431 * 1.529 * 1.421 * 1.294 = 4.025. I've been doing this for years, being profitable over thousands of bets. Low single-digit percentages are a realistic average (per bet) return on investment, certainly not 10 % or more. Picking individual profitable bets is already hard enough. By betting on accumulators you guys are making sure to basically have no chance of being a winning player, even over medium samplesizes! Better try to pick individual valuebets which often can be found on exchanges (but also look for other bookmakers).

McDonald had to retire in his last match due to injury, this is why the odds are what they are and I'm skipping this one, no idea how healthy/injured he is now.

What exactly is great about this? Amazon was way better than what I'm experiencing right now. They are showing just 2 (!) ATP matches right now while about 8 are going on - the worst Grand Slam streaming service ever, and it's not even close. Or am I missing something?

Regarding Djokovic leading 6-0 (or 7-0?) in the H2H against Fritz: Despite Djokovic being a quite heavy favourite in this match, the H2H is a bit misleading. 3 of the matches were on clay (where Fritz is weak) and two were on indoor hard (Fritz is weaker indoors compared to outdoors). Their last match (on indoor hard, end of last season) went to two tiebreaks (which Djokovic won) and their only match on outdoor hard was a five-setter! Additionally, my impression is that Djokovic's ability to return big serves has declined a bit. Furthermore, currently Fritz's level - in general - can be considered close to his historical peak, although he did play quite a lot recently (possible exhaustion), but on the other hand Djokovic might still be a bit rusty after a long break (looking good so far, though, but weak opponents). Overall a bet on Fritz for me (average odds of 4.59). And well... Alcaraz is clearly a heavy favourite against Purcell, but he did have quite a few off-days as of late... dangerous to bet on him. Right now watching Hurkacz vs Popyrin, Hurkacz dominating so far, I have a bet on a regular bookmaker (= no exchange) which is rare (William Hill, 1.333) because dozens of bookmaker don't accept my action anymore. Mentioning this as yesterday my bet on Mannarino vs McDonald was voided there because the whole match needs to be completed. And on the same day my bet on Hurkacz vs Lajovic (on Betfair exchange) was voided as well! Really annoying...

Djokovic will probably win, but with odds close to 5.0, Ruud is the play. The odds are so high because of a combination of factors and overall it makes more sense that Ruud is a bit underrated here. Some people might not have watched Alcaraz in the semi and / or the previous matches. He played way below his usual level in the first two sets and still managed to be in a winning position after two sets, having played slightly better overall, despite (according to Alcaraz himself) cramps having started at the end of set 2. Obviously sets 3 and 4 are very misleading, so just looking at the score gives people a wrong impression. Also, while being a very strong clay court player, this is Djokovic's worst surface and Ruud's best, especially considering the size of the court (Ruud likes some additional space). Additionally, there is a chance Djokovic will have some injury problems in the final, like he did in set 2 against Alcaraz, there was something wrong with his forearm (?) and he had to take a medical timeout. [This shows us how little people pay attention in general, literally nobody mentions this, also on other forums.] With the current odds, there actually would be value on Djokovic if it was the Australian Open oder Wimbledon, but here Ruud is the underrated player. By the way, I disagree that Djokovic and Ruud are similar from the baseline, Ruud hits with way more topspin whereas Djokovic is more balanced in terms of forehand / backhand and a bit more attacking.

Thanks to Cerundolo, my betting day was saved! To be fair, sets 3 and 4 could have gone either way. However, the odds I got (average of 2.23, after exchange commissions) were suspiciously high (would have taken 2.00 happily!), and in such a case quite often you have overlooked something, typically an injury, but maybe it just wasn't the case here. I'm having an excellent French Open so far, actually won all days, albeit most of the time with a relatively small profit. In terms of the remaining two matches today, I don't have any bets. Almost decided to bet on Zverev when the odds were closer to 1.50. Tiafoe is a favourable matchup for him, but I'm still not fully convinced that Zverev has reached a level similar to last year's French Open yet. So, I did not pull the trigger and with the current odds, this is a no-bet match for me. Also, Dimitrov-Altmaier seems to have rather sharp odds; rooting for Dimitrov, though, as I do have an outright bet with very high odds on him lol.

Is Cerundolo slightly injured or something? In terms of odds, Fritz is the slight favourite, but I think it should be the other way around.