yogg

Daniil Medvedev to beat Milos Raonic at 2.20 with Unibet
Daniil beat Milos in Tokyo in straight sets when he went on to win that title last season and he is playing as well as he did back then so I don't see why he should be a 2.20 underdog here.

Daniil Medvedev/Milos Raonic over 12.5 games first set at 2.60 with Unibet
Pretty good value on tie-break in first set in this match. Brisbane is playing very fast, one of the fastest courts on the tour. Ideal for a player like Milos who bombs in about 10 aces per set. Daniil served 16 aces and was broken only once when he beat Andy Murray last round. There was a tie-break in the first set when they met in Tokyo in October and this time is likely to not be any different.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat (+1.5 sets) Novak Djokovic at 3.67 with Pinnacle
Nole won their only encounter so far in straight sets in Rome last season but Niko has been on an upwards trend ever since and I can see him snatching a set here just like Marton did last match.

happy new year all
ATP Brisbane Outright Winner: Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev
I haven't seen any odds yet but I'll be backing these two e.w. (half the odds to reach the final).
Both have made stunning progress in the rankings and I don't think they've finished yet.
I actually saw Alex at the Surbiton Challenger back in June where he lost to Jeremy Chardy in the final but I never thought he'd end the season at number 31.
What I did notice about him was his incredible speed around the court which has to be seen to be believed.
As for the big Russian, Daniil, he's already won three hard court titles and can beat anyone on this surface imo.
Here's hoping to bank some early profits, good luck all
===================================================
Update: Alex De Minaur @17.00 and Daniil Medvedev @15.00
both with Bet365.

happy new year all
ATP Brisbane Outright Winner: Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev
I haven't seen any odds yet but I'll be backing these two e.w. (half the odds to reach the final).
Both have made stunning progress in the rankings and I don't think they've finished yet.
I actually saw Alex at the Surbiton Challenger back in June where he lost to Jeremy Chardy in the final but I never thought he'd end the season at number 31.
What I did notice about him was his incredible speed around the court which has to be seen to be believed.
As for the big Russian, Daniil, he's already won three hard court titles and can beat anyone on this surface imo.
Here's hoping to bank some early profits, good luck all
===================================================
Update: Alex De Minaur @17.00 and Daniil Medvedev @15.00
both with Bet365.

sorry guys, I never saw that coming

sorry guys, I never saw that coming

sorry guys, I never saw that coming

Sousa J. - Rublev A.
I really like Andrey Rublev, he's a great talent but how on earth can he be the favourite to win this match
he's so out of form and he comes up against a guy who's form is very much on the up.
Joao Sousa to win @ 2.25 with Betfair looks a real gift to me.
good luck all

Kozlova was pretty close, oh well. Now waiting for the Davis Cup.

Tamara Zidansek to beat Magda Linette at 2.23 with Pinnacle
Tamara has shown she's something to count on when it comes to clay and she's beaten Magda twice already this season in straight sets on clay. Question is if Tamara can repeat her success on hardcourt so can she beat Magda again on a hardcourt? She started off with a straight sets win versus Arina Rodionova but this will be more of a challenge but as she's already won twice on clay versus Magda this season I think she can do it again on hard. Tamara is 20 years old and has already got herself to no. 75 and maybe it's just a matter of time before we see her in top 50. Her game maybe doesn't suit as well on hard but I think she's got enough to beat Magda again. And besides almost every favourite has won in Hiroshima so far this round so it might be time for a small upset again.

Once again a stupid odds movement on Betfair. I'm talking about the Bacszinsky - Zavatska match from the ITF Biarritz tournament. Bacszinsky lost the first set, but then won the second set and took a pretty quick 3-0 lead in the third set. At the 3-0, the odds were lower than 1,2. However, then the match was paused and it is scheduled to resume tomorrow. But now the odds moved to almost 1.4 on Bacszinky which is crazy. As I said, the real odds when the match stopped were lower than 1.2 and even if Zavatska will get her first service game tomorrow, the odds then won't be 1.4. So it's basically a risk-free bet on Basczinsky. If she breaks immediately when the match returns, the odds will be really low and you can get out for a nice (sure) win and if Zavatska holds you should still be able to get out for a small profit as well. As the odds are now, they make no sense at all.

Rebecca Marino (-1.5 sets) to beat Georgina Garcia Perez at 2.45 with Unibet
Rebecca looked really good in first round when she beat Tatjana Maria in straight sets 6-2 6-2 and that's game she displayed in that match is bound to continue. She's been playing very good tennis in her comeback this season since february. She's improved her ranking from 917 to 264. She had not played a match since 2013 but she is back for real the former world no.38 and I think we'll see her winning in straight sets tomorrow and reach another quarter final in Quebec as she was in the quarter final in 2011 also when she was a top 50 player.

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova to beat Victorija Golubic at 1.91 with Paddypower
Going with Anna Karolina because she doesn't have the same bad form as Victorija. Both have their losses recently but Anna Karolina has lost to far better players than Victorija. As an example: this summer Victorija lost 3 in a row to Ons Jabeur, Patty Schnyder and Eugenie Bouchard in her favourite home tournament Gstaad. In US open she lost to Julia Glushko so the form of Victorija isn't very convincing. Anna Karolina has lost to Rebecca Peterson, Sofia Kenin, Yafan Wang and Olga Danilovic in Moscow who was in sick form when she won WTA Moscow and as mentioned all those are players in better form currently than Victorija.

Heather Watson/Leylah Annie Fernandez under 19.0 games at 2.00 with Pinnacle
Here's where it ends for Leylah. Heather was as efficient as she can be against Monica Niculescu and played well enough to save over 12 breakpoints. Her serve was clicking well enough for me to belive this will be a short encounter since not only her serve worked well because her groundstrokes look good. I expect Leylah to make a bit to many unforced errors here to avoid the double break somewhere so this should end in two sets with 6-2/6-1 being possible in one of the sets which should be enough.

Kateryna Kozlova to beat Zarina Diyas at 4.41 with Pinnacle
Not a good start to the week, shame about Rodina especially. That said, I'm not giving up just yet and this looks like value to me regardless of what the final result is going to be, just on principle. The two played a three-setter in Chicago just a while ago before starting their weeks with easy wins, not sure what makes Kozlova a 4.41 shot honestly, she's always been one of those players that are capable of springing a big win out of nowhere. Something like 3.00 would look fair to me.

Gabriela Dabrowski (-2.5) to beat Leylah Annie Fernandez at 1.80 with BoyleSports
One additional bet for me in Quebec. Leylah Annie Fernandez might have some promise for the future, but that doesn't change the fact that her best result to this day is that she pushed Boulter to three sets in Montreal some time ago. Dabrowski has made it through the qualifiers and she is going to try hard given that this is a local derby of sorts, so her experience and skills should prevail. The clincher for me is that Dabrowski is one of those players that don't have a particularly clean style, which is something that usually works well against inexperienced players.

Evgeniya Rodina to beat Georgina Garcia-Perez at 2.10 with William Hill
I'm not sure what makes Garcia-Perez the favourite here. She has a good indoors game, but so does Rodina and I'm not sure how wise it was for Garcia-Perez to travel to Zagreb and back, especially since the ITF event there was played on clay. Rodina's recent form looks poor, but all those defeats came against stronger opposition than this one.
Lucie Safarova (-3.5) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.80 with BoyleSports
Safarova might be about to quit tennis at the end of the year, but it's clear that she still has what it takes to compete on almost the top level and her game should certainly be better for the conditions than Jabeur's. She's also the former winner here and has the form book on her side as well.

Williams was explosive against Sevastova and I can't see her losing more than 5 games to Osaka.
Williams AH -6 games @ 3.85 with Pinnacle looks good to me.
good luck all 

Williams S. - Sevastova A.
over 2.5 sets @3.25 with Bet365
Serena is playing great despite her arse being a stone overweight. But Pliskova was quite close to winning the first set against her when 4-2 up.
Anastasija has a not very secret weapon; the drop shot as well as being very good in most other departments as she's shown us thus far.
I don't think Serena will enjoy this match but will win it but may well lose a set to the shrewd Latvian.
good luck all 

I fancy Del Potro if he's feeling up to it. Haven't been too impressed with Nadal and think Del Po's power will trouble Nadal similar to how Thiem did. So if Del Po can serve well he should at least take a set or two. Still searching for the value odds.

Keys M. - Osaka N.
Osaka to win @2.39 with Marathonbet
Osaka has impressed me with her power game especially against Sabalenka who was the favourite to beat her.
Keys hasn't come up against a slogger yet and I think she'll be undone here.

Serena Williams vs Anastasija Sevastova
It isn't a secret that people is expecting Serena to win, especially cause she’s 2 wins away from a record 24th Grand Slam title and it'd be brave to bet against her. For her opponent is the first time in her career she's in a semifinal Slam. Williams run here wasn’t that hard, only Kaia Kanepi took a set off her, meanwhile Sevastova had a very tough run, including her match against #3 Stephens. I think Williams’ experience will be enough to beat Sevastova in just 2 sets.
My pick is under 20.5 games @ 1.806 (2 units) at Pinnacle